Ian Welsh lays out a probable narrative that the Pant Load will use if he loses:
Republican leaders and billionaires turned on him when he could have won, flocking to Clinton, and there was voter fraud.
More from Welsh:
The first is true, the second will be believable (Clinton’s proxies did purge voter rolls and so on to help Clinton win the primary) and the hard core of Trump support will believe that his loss was due to betrayal and cheating. Of course the fat cats went against him, he was trying to “help the ordinary guy.”
And Trump is busy fixing that idea in impressionable minds. In an interview Trump gave the WaPo’s Phillip Rucker on August 2:
RUCKER: You said yesterday that you worried the election might be rigged in some way.
TRUMP: Yeah.
RUCKER: What is your worry exactly?
TRUMP: I don’t like what’s going on with voter ID.
RUCKER: It would be what’s happening in the states?
TRUMP: Well, I think it’s ridiculous. I mean the voter ID situation has turned out to be a very unfair development. We may have people vote 10 times. It’s inconceivable that you don’t have to show identification in order to vote or that that the identification doesn’t have to be somewhat foolproof.
More from the Prima Donald:
RUCKER: Do you think someone can vote multiple times?
TRUMP: Multiple times. How about like 10 times. Why not? If you don’t have voter ID, you can just keep voting and voting and voting.
RUCKER: Is there anything else that you think could be going on?
TRUMP: Look, you never know. It started with me in Louisiana when I won Louisiana and I got fewer delegates than Ted Cruz.
It’s way too late to explain to The Donald how primary delegates are awarded.
But a quick look at voter fraud in the US is instructive. Take this chart from the Brennan Center:
(Not sure why the Brennan Center speaks about “Lies” on one side of the chart, and “Accusations” on the other.)
The Brennan Center research report explains why actual voter fraud is so small:
In part, this is because fraud by individual voters is a singularly foolish and ineffective way to attempt to win an election. Each act of voter fraud in connection with a federal election risks five years in prison and a $10,000 fine, in addition to any state penalties. In return, it yields at most one incremental vote. That single extra vote is simply not worth the price.
From what we see in the comments on blogs, and on cable media, many people consider it a matter of fact that several of the 2016 primaries were rigged. It is a short step from that to assume that the general election will also be rigged.
Trump is tapping into a stream in which many people (we’re looking at you Bernie Bros) have become convinced that they cannot legitimately lose an election.
According to Ian Welsh, this could be the founding myth of a movement. It is more distrust of American institutions, and it is a problem that could become a big issue if/when Trump fails to win the general election.
Imagine if Trump the Authoritarian mobilized his supporters to reject the election result, based on nothing at all.
Think about it: Usually, after citizens cast a vote on the first Tuesday of November, they no longer have agency or political leverage. The entire democratic process is vested in those persons they voted for.
That’s it. You voted. Now go back to your iPhone.
It could be challenging if Trump supporters won’t leave the streets.
