The failure of the US Congress to provide aid to Ukraine in a timely manner is a massive rupture of the US’s standing both with NATO and with global democracies that implicitly count on the US to support them if shit ever hits the fan in their region. The bottom line is that the US is no longer a trusted ally or friend.
Jens Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian Prime Minister and now Secretary General of NATO reacted to the US failure to deliver by announcing he is giving Ukraine “permission” to use its soon to be delivered F-16s to launch attacks inside Russia:
“Stoltenberg believes that the death of Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny and the first Russian gains on the battlefield in months should help focus the attention of NATO and its allies on the urgent need to support Ukraine.”
According to Stoltenberg, it will be up to each ally to decide whether to deliver F-16s to Ukraine, and each have different policies. But he said at the same time, the war in Ukraine is a war of aggression and Ukraine has the right to self-defense, including striking legitimate Russian military targets outside Ukraine.
The criticism of this is that it could lead NATO into a European war that might well include nuclear weapons. Above all, NATO is a defensive, not an offensive, alliance. Finally, there are no provisions in the NATO Treaty authorizing offensive, outside-the-NATO boundary operations.
The House Republicans have effectively turned the Ukraine war into a free-for-all. Without US arms assistance, there’s a substantial risk that this war could easily escalate, with the US having only a limited voice in both strategy and tactics. On to cartoons.
Republicans have reduced the US to hot air:
Putin’s now hoping for a Ukraine surrender:
Moon landing dredges up old theories:
Russia’s Congressional dupes fail to see the problem:
IVF ruling has consequences:
There’s a sucker born every minute in Trump world. The shoes are pre-order only; just another Don-con: :
Wrongo said to a few commenters that he would follow up his “Proportionality in Gaza” column with additional information on the Gaza tunnels. How Israel deals with the Hamas tunnels is at the center of the question of proportionality since they are located under heavily populated parts of Gaza City.
As we know, more than 2 million people live in Gaza, and while many of them likely sympathize with Hamas, the best estimates of how many Hamas fighters are in the Gaza strip is around 35-40,000, a tiny fraction of the total population.
So the question is how to deal with Hamas without excessive civilian casualties, when Hamas can hide in tunnels under the city?
Before we begin, Wrongo has questions. Israel’s military confirmed over the weekend that Israel has twin goals: Annihilating Hamas while simultaneously rescuing some 230 hostages abducted from Israel on Oct. 7. But how does Israel expect to negotiate a hostage release from a group that Israel says they are annihilating? Doesn’t the threat of annihilation mean that Hamas will never release hostages to their sworn enemy? Worse, the hostages are believed to be hidden in Hamas’ tunnel network. The current heavy bombing raises the prospect of unmitigated chaos for both Palestinian civilians and hostages alike. It seems to Wrongo that Netanyahu’s twin goals are in opposition to each other.
Back to the tunnels. Lets start with the ground they are built in. We in the west have heard about Palestinian smuggling tunnels collapsing. Those were in the south near the border with Egypt, built in sandy soil. The Hamas tunnels in the Gaza Strip region are composed of limestone and sandstone along with some clay. These soils allow for digging tunnels that aren’t as subject to collapse:
Via the NYT: The network is by now so established that Hamas can manufacture weapons underground. Photo by Mohammed Saber/EPA, via Shutterstock.
The NYT reports that a few of Hamas’ recent tunnels actually begin several meters out in the Mediterranean Sea. But the majority of them are part of a network of subterranean pathways, rooms, cells and even tracks for moving carts containing weaponry. Hamas, which oversees Gaza, is believed to hide weapons, fighters and even command centers in their warren of underground chambers.
“A decade ago, Israeli authorities discovered a tunnel from Gaza into Israel 1.5 miles long and 66 feet underground. They estimated that it had cost some $10 million and required 800 tons of concrete. But Hamas directed most of its tunnel-building effort on the land beneath Gaza, rather than at the border…”
More:
“Though no exact figures regarding the tunnels’ scale exist, experts say Hamas could control about 300 miles of tunnel….Most of the tunnels are about 150 feet deep…about the length of a 14-story building. But the network is winding, uneven and in some parts fashioned in a zigzag pattern to evade Israeli detection.”
Let’s turn to the challenges posed by any attempt to clear the tunnels of Hamas fighters. Combat inside tunnels is incredibly difficult and requires a specific skill set. The standard infantry tactics and weaponry are often not suitable inside a subterranean setting. It’s difficult to execute offensive operations inside the tunnels because navigation and communication systems often don’t work so far underground, and even night-vision goggles struggle, as they require ambient light.
The NYT quotes Gen. Joseph L. Votel, former leader of the US Central Command responsible for the Middle East who visited a tunnel controlled by the Lebanese militia Hezbollah near Israel’s border:
“This wasn’t just holes in the ground, it was an architecture….They were linked to rooms and built in a way to withstand strikes to the surface…. We should have no illusions about how this is going to be….It will be bloody, brutal fighting.”
But since the tunnels are so integral to Hamas’s operations, dismantling the tunnel network must be equally integral to Israel’s stated goal of eradicating Hamas. This is the proportionality dilemma. Will Israel be willing to forego their bombing and begin destroying tunnels primarily with the forces they have trained for the task? Or will the bombing of Gaza continue unabated? The Economist estimated that by day 18 of the war, Israel had destroyed about 9% of the buildings in Gaza.
An Israeli military unit called Samur, or weasel, specializes in underground warfare, training on mock tunnels in Israel. One Israeli technique, called “purple hair,” has been used to locate the tentacles of a Hamas tunnel. Israeli troops drop smoke grenades into a tunnel, and then watch for purple smoke to come out of buildings in the area. The smoke signals that a house is connected to the tunnel network and must be sealed off before soldiers descend into the tunnels.
However, even if Israel’s “tunnel rats” make headway, Hamas, by taking the hostages underground and releasing them over time, could extend this conflict for months, possibly years. Judging by Hamas’ 10+ yearlong preparation, they seem ready to fight to the last surface-dwelling Palestinian.
The strategic choice seems clear: If Netanyahu wants to get to eliminate Hamas, or at least its ability to wage war, he will have to send the IDF into the tunnels after them, or bomb Gaza into dust. The IDF knows this, but how many of them have the steel to venture into the darkness for months at a time?
And is eradicating Hamas even possible? Wrongo is old enough to remember the US effort to eradicate the Taliban, only to find them back in power on the day we left Afghanistan. And when, not if, Israel withdraws, then what? Who will step in to fill the power vacuum? What confidence can Israelis have that whatever replaces Hamas will be willing to live in peace with Israel?
Biden should be telling Netanyahu to stop the wholesale bombardment of Gaza and concentrate on securing the known tunnel entrances and sending in the tunnel rats. Hamas may blow up some of the tunnels as they’re penetrated causing loss of life to both sides. Then, the IDF must keep finding more tunnel entrances and keep burrowing.
Biden also should be telling Netanyahu to allow humanitarian aid to flow to the Gazans, not just from Egypt, but from the Israeli side as well.
This strategy is fraught with risks. But it contains both the moral costs and military costs for Israel and preserves the possibility of a peaceful coexistence at some point in the future. But the question is: Do the Israelis have the will and the ability to execute such a strategy successfully?
For today’s Monday Wake Up, all sides in the Hamas/Israel war need to rouse themselves from their efforts at what Netanyahu called his “Mighty Vengeance”. This war will certainly get worse before it gets better. And maybe it won’t get better in what remains of Wrongo’s lifetime. As the NYT’s Nick Kristoff said:
“Israel faces an agonizing challenge: A neighboring territory is ruled by well-armed terrorists who have committed unimaginable atrocities, aim to commit more and now shelter in tunnels beneath a population of more than two million people. It’s a nightmare. But the sober question must be: What policies will reduce the risk, not inflame it, while honoring the intrinsic value of Palestinian life as well as Israeli life?”
To help us wake up, watch and listen to the late Eva Cassidy along with the London Symphony Orchestra perform the seasonally appropriate “Autumn Leaves”. She had a voice that will never die:
Escalante NM, UT – October 2023 drone photo by Brete Thomas
Last night, President Biden said that the world is at an inflection point. The next stage of the Israel/Hamas conflict is beginning. From the WaPo:
“Israeli troops are massing around the Gaza Strip, poised for a ground invasion that could involve heavy urban combat in the densely populated territory. The buildup of force comes after attackers from the militant group Hamas, which controls the enclave, crossed into southern Israel, killing at least 1,400 people and taking more than 200 hostages.”has and will be written about the next stage concerns what is a “justifiable” retaliatory action by the Israelis. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have already pummeled Gaza with airstrikes, killing more than 3,000 Palestinians, according to the Palestinians.
Much of what the Israelis seemingly are planning on doing is entirely justifiable, so long as there is an overarching strategy behind it. What we do know is that Israel has vowed to “destroy” Hamas. That means an extensive ground war in Gaza.
Without a strategy for what happens after Hamas is rooted out, this will look more like a reprisal strike whenever the IDF leaves Gaza. And there’s absolutely a moral problem with reprisals that kill many civilians. The law (and custom) of war would say there isn’t a problem with reprisals in which you’re killing only Hamas. But if the IDF happens to kill a lot of civilians along the way, even if it is lawful, the world would want to see that Israel has a long-term strategic objective that justifies those actions.
The WaPo quotes Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at Rand Corp: (parenthesis by Wrongo)
“Basically what the Israelis are aiming for is complete regime change in Gaza, which is a notable break from past campaigns….If you want to root out Hamas, it’s going to last a lot more than 50 days like Protective Edge, (referring to the IDF’s 2014 Gaza operation)”.
The general rule is that armies are not allowed to target civilians, but you are allowed to target combatants or belligerents of the other side. Urban warfare has always shown that civilians and belligerents are not necessarily distinct from one another. Often the fighters aren’t wearing uniforms.
The US military saw this in Mosul and Raqqa while fighting ISIS. The bad guys are basing themselves in the same buildings that civilians live in. That means the military has to weigh factors like the necessity of the military strike, and whether the expected civilian harm is proportionate to the expected military gain.
Let’s game out how it might look on the ground in Gaza. Remember, that Hamas is thought to have a membership of between 20,000 and 25,000.
First, Israel will have control of the airspace over Gaza. That will make rooftops a very poor place for Hamas sniper and rocket positions.
Second, Israel has amassed artillery and tanks to provide massive firepower. This is an advantage to IDF troops since overwhelming firepower will reduce risk to its soldiers. But it is a huge disadvantage to civilian populations, and it’s incredibly destructive to the city. Also, tanks could be vulnerable to antitank weapons and will be limited by narrow urban streets.
Third, urban warfare tactics will probably be stalemated at the start. Expect Hamas to take up positions in buildings where they will have cover against attacking IDF forces. But Israeli soldiers will bring explosives to blow through walls and enter buildings or rooms from unexpected directions. The size of the IDF forces will gradually wear down Hamas.
Fourth, Gaza has many tunnels built for allowing Hamas to move around the city undetected. The IDF will either flood the tunnels or permanently entomb Hamas soldiers in them using explosives.
Regardless, many people in Gaza will die, some of whom will be Hamas members.
So the big questions are what is Israel’s exit strategy? How will Gaza be governed post-Hamas? And how will the IDF minimize civilian casualties?
Here’s some context. You can read this and say “what about” a fact or two? But the overarching issue is: Can these two peoples with different religions live peacefully in very close contact, given all that has happened since the Balfour Declaration? Israelis came to a land that already had a native population, and the land to share between them wasn’t very large. That required that some of the people who were already on the land had to be moved.
A reality on the ground in Israel and in Gaza is that the Palestinian population is growing faster than Israel’s. This makes for continued contests (legal and illegal) over control of land, and this frozen conflict has now once again burst into active warfare.
And regarding strategy? It may be as simple as let’s get rid of Hamas. Let’s end the cycle of violence and rebuild. No one asked FDR what to do with Germany on D-Day.
If Israel can eliminate Hamas while minimizing civilian casualties, that would be a good start. Then if the Palestinians can put together a government that actually wants: a) to build a functioning economy (without having its existence justified by perpetual war) and b) can check the “Israel has a right to exist” box, perhaps peace could happen.
The Israelis will likely have to be pushed to accept a viable Palestinian state, since this will mean political conflict with its West Bank settlers. A critical question is how hard the US and other nations are willing to push for peace between the parties. It seems likely that the current conflict may create an opportunity to push for peace. Let’s hope Israel is ready to grasp it.
The Arab states are looking on nervously. The outraged response to the hospital bombing in Gaza reminds us that even authoritarian governments sometimes must be responsive to their citizens. It’s possible that in the future, Israel may still face active challenges from hostile regimes in Syria, Jordan, and Egypt. To assume otherwise is just wishful thinking.
The world is staring down the real possibility that this local conflict might morph into a regional war. There will be both short and longer term global consequences for America regardless of Israel’s strategy post-Hamas.
(Sorry, no Saturday Soother today. Instead, let’s hope for minimized deaths and casualties from the Israel/Hamas war.)
Sunrise, Town Cove, Eastham, MA – October 2023 iPhone photo by Wrongo
Wrongo and Ms. Right returned today from another fine stay on Cape Cod. Time with family and friends in a special environment is always fun and refreshing. It almost made us forget that we’re in the midst of a global hysteria surrounding the Israel/Hamas war.
What has happened so far and what may happen soon should be revolting to anyone who can empathize with other humans. Wrongo has a few thoughts for today’s Monday Wake Up Call: First, as terrible as the Israel/Hamas story is, we and the media shouldn’t obsessively focus on it to the exclusion of other important events. There are other problems that we need to keep a focus on.
And while it’s important to stay current, no one should subject themselves to watching the hostage videos that Hamas says they will be broadcasting of the hostages. Watching people suffer won’t make them suffer less. You can’t unsee these things. Moreover, you shouldn’t play into Hamas’ hands.
Second, Biden has been doing a reasonably good job in this crisis. From Dan Pfeiffer:
“Biden has been astride the world stage — speaking with strength, empathy, and moral outrage about the horrendous terrorist attack in Israel. At the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, the Republicans have been involved in an embarrassing spectacle of self-sabotage and narcissistic incompetence.”
Axios reported that on Sunday, Israel resumed supplying water to the southern Gaza Strip after strong pressure from the Biden administration.
But here at home, we still have the problem of Republicans fighting amongst themselves:
“Electing a Speaker is the most basic Congressional function, yet the Republican Caucus seems incapable of doing so. The dysfunction among House Republicans has left the U.S. with only one branch of Congress. Without a Speaker, Congress cannot pass a bill to keep the government open, send military aid to Israel or Ukraine, or even name a post office.”
Third, people often say horrible things in the aftermath of an attack. But shouldn’t political officials be self-censoring? That wasn’t so with Israeli President Isaac Herzog. He said on Friday that all citizens of Gaza are responsible for the attack Hamas perpetrated:
Herzog is asking: Why didn’t the people of Gaza rise up and overthrow Hamas? He implies that if they had, Israel wouldn’t have to attack them. The thought of a politician holding civilians in any country (half of whom aren’t adults) collectively responsible for atrocities committed by a unaccountable minority should be carefully parsed.
And using this as justification for destroying neighborhoods, for cutting off fuel and electricity to an entire population while ordering the mass evacuation of over a million people, seems to Wrongo to be a disproportionate response. There are a few ethicists who follow the Wrongologist Blog. Hopefully they will weigh in on Herzog’s justification for invading Gaza, and the ethics of targeting civilians in war.
From a political viewpoint, if Israel acts in a restrained way and doesn’t respond with overwhelming force, then Israel looks weak both to its citizens and to the Arab world. That’s likely to encourage more attacks, perhaps by other Middle East actors.
If Israel responds with overwhelming force, then lots of Palestinian civilians will die. Israel will be condemned and possibly other Muslim countries will join in an attack on Israel. So, perhaps Hamas’ attack wasn’t to create maximum casualties in Israel, but to trigger this lose/lose set of options for Israel’s response.
Finally, no one has a serious idea on a way to reach across the mammoth void between the Palestinians and the Israelis. Wrongo found a quote that may offer a way to think about a future for the region:
“At the end of 1918, Marshal Foch was in his Luxembourg headquarters examining with his international staff how to deal with Germany and the Germans. He had this thought: “The Germans, we either exterminate them, or we get along with them. Exterminating them is impossible. So, gentlemen, let’s work out how to get along with them.”
That didn’t work in WWI. It hasn’t worked in the Middle East. Yet, people are the same all over the world. They all want family, friends, a dependable job, and a secure place to live. That’s certainly true for both the Palestinians and the Israelis. The question is: What must be sacrificed by either side to achieve it? And is either side capable of making a sacrifice today that will largely benefit their children’s grandchildren?
Time to wake up America! Do we ever take the long view? We seem to have forgotten how to sacrifice today for a better tomorrow. It’s possible that the Gazans are invoking such a sacrifice right now.
This shouldn’t be a foreign idea to Americans, particularly to Christians. Much of Christianity’s beliefs involve sacrifice. For example, Christians believe that Jesus endured the sacrifice of torture, crucifixion and death for their redemption. That sacrifice is remembered in most Christian Sunday services.
There’s a major difference between the sacrifice of Christ and the sacrifice about to be imposed on the men, women and children of Gaza. Christ sacrificed himself for others while Hamas is forcing tens of thousands of Palestinians to endure sacrifice for them. Those tens of thousands aren’t choosing to be sacrificed. It’s doubtful that Israelis want to be sacrificed: They’re just wishing the Palestinians would go away.
To help you wake up, watch and listen to “Zombie” by The Cranberries from 1994. The song was written by the late Delores O’Riordan, about The Troubles in Northern Ireland, the decades-long conflict between nationalists (mainly Irish or Roman Catholic) and unionists (mainly British or Protestant).
The Troubles ended, while the Israel-Palestinian standoff continues.
The song was written in response to the death of two young boys, Tim Parry and Johnathan Ball, who were killed in an IRA bombing when two IRA-improvised explosive devices hidden in trash bins were detonated in Warrington, England. Ball died at the scene:
Nauset Beach, Orleans, MA – October 2023 iPhone photo by Wrongo
It’s already been a long year…and there are still 3 months left! Two issues dominated this week: the Hamas war on Israel and the Republican intramurals in the House.
Let’s start with the Republicans. Semafor reports that Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) gave up on his quest to become Speaker even though he had been nominated by his caucus as their candidate:
“Scalise withdrew himself from the speaker’s race just one day after colleagues narrowly nominated him for the job, as it became clear he lacked the 217 votes necessary to secure the chair. But there are serious doubts that Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH),  Scalise’s top rival, can pull together the support necessary for a win — in part due to the bad blood over his contest against Scalise.”
This isn’t a time for Republican arm wrestling. The country and the world need attention. As AB Stoddard says at the Bulwark:
“THE REPUBLICANS WHO CONTROL the House of Representatives cannot respond to a new war waged against Israel. They have rejected new aid to support Ukraine in its defense against the Russian invasion. They have no plan to keep the government from shutting down on November 17 when funding next runs dry.”
Right now, there’s no path forward. While many things in this world are broken, this isn’t a case of American politics being “broken”. If as many pundits say, American politics are broken, we’d have seen things just like this when Democrats controlled the House. But they didn’t. What’s broken is the Republican Party.
A few House Republicans have suggested that their only choice might be to strike a bargain with Democrats. But behind closed doors, there hasn’t been a real effort to hatch a bipartisan deal, writes Semafor’s Kadia Goba: (brackets by Wrongo)
“I don’t think there has been legitimate outreach….Sure, those members talk to the press, but not to Hakeem Jeffries [the Democrats’ Majority Leader] or leadership.”
The potentially disastrous consequences of a broken House of Representatives are real, and some Republicans understand that. GOP Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) said the following after Scalise withdrew his name from consideration:
“We are living in a dangerous world, the world’s on fire. Our adversaries are watching what we do — and quite frankly, they like it. I see a lot of threats out there. One of the biggest threats I see is in the [GOP caucus] room, because we can’t unify as a conference and put the speaker in the chair…”
Brian Tyler Cohen, who hosts the podcast No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen, summed up where the GOP is at with his post on Xitter:
“The fact that ALL Republicans would rather fight over Scalise (who attended a neo-Nazi event) or Jordan (who allegedly covered up rampant sexual abuse) rather than simply work with Democrats to elect a Speaker says it all.”
There are two possible paths forward: Either the Republicans unite behind one candidate for Speaker, or they accept that it will take some Democratic votes to elect a bipartisan candidate. “Bipartisan” is a dirty word among many House Republicans. They have broken the House and have zero intent to fix it.
They must be stopped before they break us all.
The murderous rampage by Hamas last weekend against Israeli civilians and Israel’s sharp response will reverberate for years to come. Eric Levitz wrote in New York Magazine:
“This weekend in Israel, a far-right Islamist group perpetrated the largest mass killing of Jews since the Holocaust, murdering entire families, including babies…and slaughtering 260 concertgoers. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in all, and over 100 others taken hostage.
Israel’s far-right government predictably responded by choking off all food, electricity, and fuel to Gaza’s 2 million residents and then preparing a military assault more untempered by concern for civilian casualties than ever before.”
The Israeli Ministry of Defense just notified the UN that Palestinians living in Gaza City should evacuate to the southern part of the Gaza Strip. But more than 1 million Palestinians live in this area. How is it possible for so many people to move, even if they had months to do it?
If you are a member of the center-left, It is difficult to see any positive influence on this situation. It shouldn’t be a question of whether you’re for Israel or against it. Terrorism directed at civilians is abhorrent regardless of who’s doing it.
And here at home, conservative pundits exploited Hamas’ attack to fearmonger about immigrants in America. Several right-wing media figures have baselessly warned that Hamas or other “sleeper cells” are lying in wait to attack major American cities, calling October 13 “Day of Jihad”. They also used this lie against American Muslims after 9/11.
What’s happening now between Israel and Hamas makes you want to throw up your hands in despair. It’s impossible to think of or see a solution that can satisfy all sides. Despite that, we need to take a break from so much frustration. We need our Saturday Soother. We need to stiffen our spines for what will be yet another week of horror and nonsense.
Here on Cape Cod, the weather is seasonably crisp, so we will be wearing jackets to today’s Wellfleet Oysterfest. Later, we’ll go to the beach to watch the sunset that is coming earlier every day.
To meditate for a few moments on the Hamas/Israel war, grab a comfy chair and listen to John Lennon’s “Imagine” from his 1971 album of the same name. Released during the heart of the Vietnam War, Lennon asks us to envision a world of peace and unity. “Nothing to kill or die for And no religion too”:
Sample Lyric:
Imagine there’s no countries
It isn’t hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion too
Imagine all the people
Living life in peace
You may say I’m a dreamer
But I’m not the only one
I hope someday you’ll join us
And the world will be as one
(Today we’re leaving for Alaska and will have limited access to WiFi, so columns will be light and variable. Regular columns will resume on 7/1. In the meantime, if turbulence occurs, keep your tray tables in their upright and locked position and if you’re Trump, keep your tiny hands inside the blog.)
Wrongo isn’t sure who is the most famous Alaskan, but he really likes this comment by Sarah Palin, when asked if Trump’s followers were a cult:
Sarah! That’s the EXACT definition of Trump’s followers. And isn’t a cult just a religion that doesn’t have tax-free status? Maybe the difference is that in a cult, there’s a guy at the top who knows it’s a scam. In a religion, that guy is dead.
“The Southern Baptist Convention (SBC), America’s largest Protestant denomination with 13.2m adherents, which begins its annual meeting on June 13th in New Orleans, has long treated women as subordinate to men. “Complementarianism”—the idea that men and women occupy distinct but equal roles, with men exercising spiritual authority—is the preferred term.”
On Wednesday the Convention voted by a two-thirds majority to amend their constitution to state that the Southern Baptist Convention “Affirms, appoints, or employs only men as any kind of pastor or elder.” Their concern was the old slippery slope:
“….that female pastors are a precursor to acceptance of homosexuality and sexual immorality.”
If you think that sounds out of touch with modern America and more like the Taliban, this chart from the Economist shows that you’re not alone:
This means that the Southern Baptists are back where they were in the 1980s in terms of membership. More from the Economist:
“By the mid-1980s, 200 women had been ordained as pastors….But a year later conservatives commandeered the leadership of the SBC, and began to purge women from seminaries. In 1998 the SBC amended its statement of faith to affirm that a wife should “submit herself graciously” to her husband. In 2000 it said that only men can be pastors. Churches that disagreed were hounded out.”
Kind of explains the decline in membership. Also it isn’t the SBC’s biggest problem: (emphasis by Wrongo)
“In recent years hundreds of sexual-abuse allegations have surfaced, implicating pastors directly and in the cover-up. And ever more people are leaving the faith. In 2012 there were three baptisms for every congregant who quit. Last year the SBC lost two-and-a-half members for every baptism.”
Could it be that the SBC has some kind of a marketing problem?
This is a problem across the evangelical community: Women are meant to be meek, accommodating baby making machines. They have no sexual education. Home schooling leaves them unable to compete in a globalized work environment. It’s not about the scriptures, it’s about power and control.
That’s what cults are about. It doesn’t matter if it’s MAGAs or the SBC. Considering that evangelicals compose a significant portion of the voting GOP, this shouldn’t be a surprise. These people are fearful of what the future may hold. Like the MAGAverse, they long for a time that may never have existed. The Economist quotes the conservative leaders of the constitutional amendment:
“Once a denomination has female pastors, it’s usually just a matter of time until they ordain homosexual pastors….”
That’s probably true, but these people really have nothing to fear but fear itself.
This month, Texas Senate Republicans passed three bills allowing religion into public schools. From Vox:
“The first, SB 1515, would require public schools to display the Ten Commandments in a “conspicuous place” in classrooms. The other bill, SB 1396, would permit public schools to set aside time for students and staff members to pray or read the Bible and other religious texts. The third, SB 1556, would give employees the right to pray or “engage in religious speech” while on the job.”
Some of this sounds unconstitutional. You can be certain that plenty of Texans will be happy to comply as maliciously as possible next fall.
The three bills now go to the Texas House for approval. They follow Texas’s SB 797, which took effect in 2021 and requires schools to display “In God We Trust” signs.
When the Texas Right say they want to bring religion back into public schools, they mean they want to make public schools more Christian. This flies in the face of America becoming noticeably less religious over the past 20 years:Â Weekly service attendance and religious self-identification are both down 20% overall, which translates to about 50 million fewer Americans than two decades ago.
This is ironic: If religious identification is to increase, it will have to come from “importing” traditional believers from the global south. But few of them are white. So that’s a problem for Trumpism and the reactionary Right. On to cartoons.
State-sponsored religion is hard to swallow:
Biden announces he’s running:
How do young voters fit in the race between these geriatrics?
(Tomorrow’s Monday Wake Up Call will appear on Tuesday)
Let’s talk about the religions that are implicated in two news items this week.
First, the attempted assassination of Salman Rushdie in upstate New York on Saturday. He was hospitalized after suffering serious injuries in a stabbing attack. We don’t know for certain that this was someone carrying out the death threat that Iran’s then-leader Grand Ayatollah Khomeini put on Rushdie in 1989. But it seems to be the most likely explanation.
Police detained a suspect named Hadi Matar, 24, who is California-born, but moved to Fairview, New Jersey in 2014. NBC NY News reported that a review of Matar’s social media accounts showed he is sympathetic to Shia extremism and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps causes. One of Matar’s former high school classmates told The Daily Beast that Matar “was a very devout Muslim” who participated in debate and had several friends.
If religion is behind this, the attempted revenge has occurred two generations later.
Second, Polio was found in wastewater samples from New York City. Polio has been eradicated in the US since 1988. Finding it in NYC water samples follows a confirmed case of Polio in Rockland County, NY, just 35 miles north of the City. The County announced that an analysis of more wastewater samples revealed that the polio viruses have been circulating in the area since May.
Worse, the 20 positive samples detected in the two counties are genetically linked to the virus that paralyzed the unidentified man in Rockland County.
The broader context of both stories is that religions played a part in each. The Polio case in Rockland was found in a resident of one of the orthodox religious towns where a predominantly Hasidic Jewish community lives. Rockland County currently has a polio vaccination rate of 60.5% among 2-year-olds, compared to the statewide average of 79.1%. This same group had a measles outbreak (312 cases) in 2019, and low COVID vaccination rates.
There is a strong anti-vaxx mentality in this community, and that helps create fertile conditions for a formerly eradicated disease to be revitalized. Polio is entirely preventable, and yet, many parents remain hostile to vaccination.
In the Rushdie attack, we’re speculating about the influence of religion. Saying the attacker is sympathetic to Shia Islam isn’t sufficient to make it a religious attack. But Wrongo would be surprised if it turned out to be solely either personally or politically motivated.
On to cartoons. Despite the above, most of the news this week was about the FBI search.
The truth is revealed:
Trump explains:
Beach reading is different this year:
Reactions to IRS have changed:
GOP policy wonks are thinking they may need to change:
Sunrise, high tide, Sea Street beach, East Dennis, MA – July 2022 photo by Bob Amaral Photography
The fallout from the Trump years continues. On Monday, ProPublica reported that the IRS had decided that the Family Research Council (FRC), a Right-Wing political lobbying group, qualifies as a church for tax purposes:
“The Family Research Council’s multimillion-dollar headquarters sit on G Street in Washington, DC, just steps from the US Capitol and the White House, a spot ideally situated for its work as a right-wing policy think tank and political pressure group.”
The FRC is now a church, thanks to the IRS and its Commissioner, Charles Rettig. You can be forgiven for not remembering that Trump appointed Rettig to be Commissioner of the IRS in 2018. He got the job by writing a 2016 op-ed saying Trump didn’t have to release his tax returns, despite every major presidential candidate having done so since Nixon.
ProPublica noted that the FRC says on its website that it is a:
“…nonprofit research and educational organization dedicated to articulating and advancing a family-centered philosophy of public life. In addition to providing policy research and analysis….[the] FRC seeks to inform the news media, the academic community, business leaders, and the general public about family issues that affect the nation from a biblical worldview.”
Now that the IRS has blessed FRC as a church, it is no longer required to file a public tax return, (known as a Form 990), which reveals key salaries, the names of board members and related organizations, large payments and/or grants by the organization.
And unlike with charities, IRS investigators can’t initiate an audit on a church unless a high-level Treasury Department official has approved the investigation.
Right Wing Watch, an organization that monitors the activities and rhetoric of right-wing activists and organizations reported on the ties between FRC and Trump’s Jan. 6 effort to overturn the presidential election:
“The Family Research Council…was deeply involved in…Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election—a fact made all the more apparent by revelations during the June 23 public hearing of the House select committee investigating the conspiracy that led to the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the US Capitol.”
You probably remember the head of the FRC, Tony Perkins (not the deceased actor) by some of his grandstanding in the culture wars:
In 2005, Perkins was against disconnecting life support for Terri Schiavo, a woman who had been in a “persistent vegetative state” for a number of years.
In 2008, Perkins called the passage of California Proposition 8 (which prohibited same sex marriage in the state) “more important than the presidential election”.
In 2018, Perkins said, regarding Trump’s adulterous past, he should be given a “Mulligan“, because Trump was “providing the leadership we need at this time…”
“Part of FRC’s strategy is to pound home the false claim that LGBTQ people are more likely to sexually abuse children than heterosexual people. The American Psychological Association, among others, however, has concluded that “homosexual men are not more likely to sexually abuse children than heterosexual men are.”
Designating the FRC as a church for tax purposes is part of a disturbing trend. The WaPo reported in 2020 about the growing list of religious groups seeking church status from the IRS.
The potential cost of becoming a church is that the organization can no longer conduct political operations on behalf of politicians or lobby on legislation. In practice, that is simple to get around. The FRC now has its church arm alongside a separate lobbying arm called Family Research Council Action.
The arms separate their messaging on two websites, with the FRC hosting issues-based content supporting its Christian worldview while the Family Research Council Action explicitly endorses candidates. Both arms are registered at the same address and both share all five of the part-time employees the FRC lists on its tax form, including Tony Perkins.
These “churches” sure have figured out how to run a scam on the US government.
It’s past time for the IRS to end this charade and tax churches. Biden should fire IRS Commissioner Rettig, who was also the guy in charge when the IRS politically targeted Trump “enemies” James Comey and Andrew McCabe for invasive tax audits.
These people and their “churches” are simply Republicans with a talent for abusing the bible and raising obscene amounts of money. Thomas Jefferson said it best:
“In every country and in every age, the priest has been hostile to liberty. He is always in alliance with the despot, abetting his abuses in return for protection to his own.”
Asheville morning, June 28, 2022 – iPhone photo by Wrongo. The log house we’re renting this week is at 4,000’ above sea level.
Wake up calls by the Wrongologist rarely happen on Wednesdays, but since the Roberts Court dismantled the line between church and state in public education with Justice Gorsuch’s decision in Kennedy v Bremerton School District, on Monday, it seems right.
Voting 6-3, the Court declared that an Oregon public high school football coach’s post-game prayer sessions with students were Constitutional, whether the students wanted them or not. That made Monday part of a pretty good run for American theocracy:
“The decision came less than a week after the court ruled, by the same vote, that Maine could not exclude religious schools from a state tuition program.”
The line between church and state is being erased before our eyes. Gorsuch, cherry-picking the facts of the case, wrote that football coach Kennedy had sought only to offer a brief, silent and solitary prayer:
“Respect for religious expressions is indispensable to life in a free and diverse republic — whether those expressions take place in a sanctuary or on a field, and whether they manifest through the spoken word or a bowed head…”
Justice Sotomayor responded that the public nature of his prayers and his stature as a leader and role model meant that students felt forced to participate, whatever their religion and whether they wanted to or not. She gave a different account of the facts, taking account of a longer time period:
“Kennedy consistently invited others to join his prayers and for years led student-athletes in prayer…”
In an unusual move, Sotomayor’s dissent included photographs showing Mr. Kennedy kneeling with players, which debunked Gorsuch’s selective use of facts.
Do you really think that this decision would have been the same if those prayers had been offered by a Muslim?
In the process of ruling for Mr. Kennedy, the majority overturned a major precedent on the First Amendment’s establishment clause, Lemon v. Kurtzman. That ruling was decided by an 8-0 vote under Republican Chief Justice Warren Burger. As an aside, John Dean (of Watergate fame) has said that during the Nixon administration, Burger threatened to resign from the Court if Nixon nominated a woman to it.
It came to be known as the Lemon test, which required courts to consider whether the challenged government practice had a secular purpose, whether its primary effect is to advance or inhibit religion, and whether it fosters excessive government entanglement with religion.
Sotomayor acknowledged that while the Lemon test had been frequently criticized by various members of the court:
“The court now goes much further…overruling Lemon entirely and in all contexts.”
So, by tossing out Lemon and saying that Coach Kennedy was not speaking for the school because it was an extra-curricular activity, the barrier between prayer and secular school has been permanently breached.
In today’s America, outside money will fund your culture wars grievance in the courts. The longer you can keep your case moving up through the courts, the better chance you have of running into a conservative Christian judge who will find a precedent for the White people’s Jesus in the Bill of Rights.
Teachers will now feel empowered to “invite” a group to pray with them. A few kids will jump in right away, while others will look around uncomfortably and gradually agree to join in, because the social opprobrium that comes with refusing is huge for kids. And since the person inviting you to pray is an authority figure: a teacher, coach, or principal, you really risk a lot by having them decide you aren’t:Â A.Good.Christian.
When given the choice between upholding traditional case law or creating de novo judicial principles, the Roberts Court is almost always going to favor the latter.
Wrongo isn’t a lawyer, but many lawyers are now pointing to the extraordinarily shoddy nature of the Court’s majority opinions, including all three of the precedent-shattering ones the Court has issued over the last week.
It’s time to wake up America! Why is it so hard for Christians in the United States to just practice their religion without involving the rest of us?
We’re getting very close to the establishment of a default Christian American religion. We know that there are many public school teachers who have been silent despite their sincere religious beliefs while at school. Now they will be actively pressured by their pastors to begin proselytizing while on the clock.
To help you wake up, let’s travel to the 2022 Glastonbury music festival, which always creates great live music. On June 25, Olivia Rodrigo and Lily Allen dedicated the latter’s song “Fuck You” repurposed to express anger at five of the six Conservative members of the court.
Rodrigo named the Justices one by one, while Allen raised alternating middle fingers to them:
These artists aren’t afraid of controversy. Millions of us now feel exactly the same.
There’s a sucker born every minute in Trump world. The shoes are pre-order only; just another Don-con: :
