Category: Saturday Soother

Saturday’s Kinda Soothing Links

The Daily Escape:

Surf, Shore Acres SP, OR – December 2023 photo by Alan Nyri Photography

Next week is the last before the Christmas and New Year’s festivities. The extended holiday time will reduce Wrongo’s output and most likely limit his posts to season-appropriate musical selections. But that’s next week. With what remains of this week, here are some snippets from longer articles.

First, from Kyle Tharp, “Inside the first-ever White House holiday party for internet celebs”:

“It’s the influencer party,” I overheard one Secret Service officer mumble to another….We were in line for one of the annual White House Holiday Receptions…where allies of the President, dignitaries, and the press are invited to gather for spiked eggnog and hors d’oeuvres while touring the newly unveiled holiday decorations. Unlike past parties, however, the guest list for the reception…was unprecedented: this event was organized by the White House’s Office of Digital Strategy….That meant the median age of attendees was probably decades younger than most holiday shindigs in DC, and the cumulative social media audience of those in attendance approached 100 million followers.”

Jill Biden gave a short toast:

“Welcome to the White House….You’re here because you all represent the changing way people receive news and information.”

Next, Politico reports that Bidenomics is a big hit outside the US:

“Bidenomics” is falling flat with American voters. But the rest of the world can’t get enough of it.

The Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) mix of support for clean energy technologies and efforts to box out foreign competitors is also promoting a kind of green patriotism — and even some politicians on the right outside the US say that’s a climate message they can sell:

“It’s probably the most impressive piece of legislation in my lifetime,” ex-diplomat Marc-André Blanchard, an executive at Canada’s biggest pension fund, told POLITICO at the…COP28 UN climate talks…”

Biden’s climate law has shown leaders around the world that winner-picking is back, something that has been out of fashion for the past 40 years. The IRA is having a real-world impact as investors shift their money to the US from abroad, hungry to take advantage of US tax breaks:

“In July, for example, Swiss solar manufacturer Meyer Burger canned plans to build a factory in Germany, choosing Arizona instead.”

Third, The Hill reports that buried in the just-passed defense bill was an anti-Trump nugget:

“Congress has approved legislation that would prevent any president from withdrawing the United States from NATO without approval from the Senate or an Act of Congress.”

The measure, spearheaded by Sens. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Marco Rubio (R-FL), was included in the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and is expected to be signed by Biden.

You have to give credit to Lil’ Marco, a shameless Trump supporter who publicly slams Biden, but who clearly understands that Trump back in office is a massive threat. It’s interesting that both Houses passed this, meaning that some House Republicans are acknowledging that Trump will abandon the US commitment to NATO if he gets the choice.

Finally, Drones. They are rapidly changing how soldiers fight, and as both sides in the Ukraine War grow more dependent on them, it’s becoming clear that the US doesn’t have the countermeasures that can defeat drone attacks. From Foreign Policy magazine:

“The advent of pervasive surveillance…has created a newly transparent battlefield. Ubiquitous drones and other technologies make it possible to track, in real time, any troop movements by either side, making it all but impossible to hide massing forces and concentrations of armored vehicles from the enemy.”

More:

“That same surveillance…makes sure that forces, once detected, are immediately hit by barrages of artillery rounds, missiles, and suicide drones.”

As drones take an increasingly prominent role in modern warfare, it’s clear that the need to disable or kill them is critical. Back in the stone age, when Wrongo was an air defense officer, it was the domain of specialist units with very expensive equipment. Now, the proliferation of small, cheap drones is spreading the anti-drone role down to the infantry squad level. From the WSJ:

“Pentagon acquisition chief Bill LaPlante said…that the US needed a surge in production of counterdrone technology, and that a lack of such equipment was hampering operations in both Ukraine and Israel.”

While Ukraine has successfully used drones throughout the war, Russia has recently improved its capabilities. That’s causing Ukraine to lose 10,000 drones a month. Both sides are also expanding their capacity to make drones. More from the WSJ: (brackets by Wrongo)

“Russia has been very effective at bringing Ukrainian drones down by sending out more powerful signals to control the drone than [can] its actual operator….This ability to jam drone signals means that Ukrainian operators have to move closer to the front line to maintain a signal with their [drones]…”

State-of-the-art drone Electronic Counter Measures (ECM) are severely lagging in the West, reducing our ability to help Ukraine, and potentially endangering us here at home. Warfare has changed and America’s playing catch-up. You better believe China is going to school on drone warfare in Ukraine.

Enough of the scary stuff. It’s time for our Saturday Soother, where we decide to unplug from all news all the time and spend a few moments gathering ourselves before the rush of news and holiday shopping that will fill next week.

Start by arranging yourself in a comfy chair by a south-facing window. Now, watch and listen to Edvard Grieg’s  Peer Gynt Suite No. 1, Op. 46 “Morning Mood”. It is performed here by the Berlin Philharmonic, conducted by Herbert von Karajan in 1983:

Practically every human being has heard this at least once in their life.

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The Three University Presidents Messed Up. Or Did They?

The Daily Escape:

Wild surf, Shore Acres SP, OR – December 2020 photo by Alan Nyri Photography

Instead of a soothing Saturday, Wrongo has decided to wade into the hot steaming pile that is the controversy over whether the presidents of various prestige universities are sufficiently anti-genocide. What they said at the House hearings has raised a chorus of voices who think that the leadership at Harvard, MIT and UPenn just aren’t anti-genocide enough.

From Bloomberg’s Noah Feldman:

“The lowlight of the House hearings on campus antisemitism…came when Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) asked the presidents of Harvard, MIT, and the University of Pennsylvania whether it would be bullying and harassment if someone on campus called for a genocide of Jews. The presidents’ answers — that it depended on context — landed about as badly as it could have. Stefanik, a Trumpist Republican election denier, browbeat them and called it “unacceptable.”

Feldman is a law professor at Harvard. He went on to say:

“The core idea of First Amendment freedom is that the expression of ideas should not be punished because doing so would make it harder, not easier, to find the truth. That freedom extends to the most hateful ideas imaginable, including advocacy of racism, antisemitism, and yes, genocide.”

Wrongo isn’t a lawyer and this isn’t a court or a classroom, so what follows is his take on this matter.

Can speech be constrained? In 1969, the Supreme Court protected a Ku Klux Klan member’s speech and created the “imminent danger” test to determine on what grounds speech can be limited, saying in Brandenburg v. Ohio that:

“The constitutional guarantees of free speech and free press do not permit a state to forbid or proscribe advocacy of the use of force, or of law violation except where such advocacy is directed to inciting imminent lawless action and is likely to incite or produce such action.”

Speech promoting violation of the law may only be restricted when it poses an imminent danger of unlawful action, where the speaker has the intention to incite such action, and there is the likelihood that this will be the consequence of that speech.

In 2017, the Court affirmed this in a unanimous decision on Matal v. Tam. The issue was about government prohibiting the registration of trademarks that are “racially disparaging”. Effectively, the Supreme Court unanimously reaffirmed that there is no “hate speech” exception to the First Amendment. Such speech can be prohibited when the very utterances inflict injury or tend to incite an immediate breach of the peace.

There is plenty of case law on the First Amendment out there to read or about hate speech if you prefer to do your own research. From Wikipedia:

“In the 1980s and 1990s, more than 350…universities adopted “speech codes” regulating discriminatory speech by faculty and students. These codes have not fared well in the courts, where they are frequently overturned as violations of the First Amendment.”

So, while University presidents may sound lawyer-like when asked if “calling for genocide of Jews” should be prohibited, think about the long history of case law that says there are few limits on hate speech that do not result in action intended to produce harm. Also think about the losing streak these universities have been on when they have tried to restrict speech in the past.

As it happens, the three presidents were accurately describing their universities’ rules, which do depend on context. Yascha Mounk in The Atlantic had this to say:

“In a narrow, technical sense, the three presidents were correct to state that their current policies would probably not penalize offensive political speech. In a more substantive sense, universities should defend a very broad definition of academic freedom, one that shields students and faculty members from punishment for expressing a political opinion, no matter how abhorrent.”

Mounk goes on to say that the university presidents were disingenuous when they claimed that their response to anti-Semitism on campus was hamstrung by a commitment to free speech. Recent history at all three institutions shows that their rules about free speech are unevenly applied. So the problem with their answers wasn’t about making a judgement call about calls for genocide.

We’re stepping into muddy waters here. When students say: “From the river to the sea. Palestine will soon be free” they’re using a political slogan that on its face is aspirational. While some may hear that and say it implies genocide of Jews, it should be protected speech. It’s stupid and ignorant, but 100% protected. Widening out our view, blaming all Jews for Netanyahu’s excesses or blaming all Palestinians for the atrocities of Hamas is wrong but it’s still protected speech.

People like Stefanik are too high on their own agenda to appreciate the distinction.

Still, it’s true that many (most? all?) universities have become hypocritical. There are plenty of examples of professors being expelled, or outside speakers being cancelled because the administration doesn’t care for the viewpoints being expressed.

The question of exactly when political/hate speech becomes sufficiently threatening and specific toward a given individual or groups so as to constitute legally (and by extension administratively) a violation of a university’s code of conduct is, not surprisingly, a massive gray area. On Thursday a man saying “Free Palestine” fired shots at a synagogue near Albany NY. Thankfully, nobody was harmed. He wasn’t on campus and he did back his words with a serious threat, so he was arrested.

The university presidents failed to be clear. The US case law and the school’s codes of conduct are sufficiently difficult to adjudicate on a hypothetical basis. These three presidents should learn that first, the US Congress isn’t the academy. Second, they should admit they are fuzzy thinkers about free speech at their institutions. Third, they should develop better codes of conduct.

Let’s give the last word to Feldman:

“Free-speech nuance is something to be proud of, not something to condemn.”

A final thought. Stefanik’s gotcha game with yes/no answers to complex questions shouldn’t be the way the game is played, but for now it is. Many Republicans think that colleges and universities deserve specific blame for the liberal political views of young Americans. It has become an article of faith on the right despite little supporting evidence that colleges are turning young people into liberals. Stefanik is a willing tool of this viewpoint.

On to our Saturday Soother. We’ve had snow overnight for the past two days on the Fields of Wrong. Still, it’s expected to be around 60° on Sunday. Given our uneven weather, the arborist isn’t coming here until the middle of February.

Let’s get comfortable in a big chair near a window. Now, try to let go of the arguments about the “people we hate and I want to talk about them” and empty our minds of complicated ideas, even if they are foundational to our democratic experiment.

Let’s listen to the Academy of St. Martin-in-the-Fields Chamber Ensemble perform Maurice Ravel’s “Introduction and Allegro for harp, flute, clarinet and string quartet”. He composed this work in 1905 and it was first performed in 1907.

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Suicides Hit A Record

The Daily Escape:

San Juan river cuts through monocline ridge, UT – November 2023 drone photo by Hilary Bralove. It is believed by many that the Navajo people based their rug and basket weaving patterns on what they saw in these geologic formations.

The temporary truce in the Israel/Hamas war is over. Reprobate Congresscritter George Santos (R-NY) was ousted from the House, and former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor died. She was the swing vote in the Bush v. Gore case that stopped the Florida recount and handed the 2000 presidential election to GW Bush. This was the first time that Republicans realized that if they controlled the Court, they could fix elections.

But on a pretty Saturday in southern New England, let’s turn our attention to a news article that hasn’t gotten much interest. From the issue, we learn that:

“More people died from suicide in the United States last year than any other year on record, dating to at least 1941, according to provisional data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”

They quote the Kaiser Family Foundation who measure the suicide deaths per 100,000 of population: (brackets by Wrongo)

“Suicide deaths are increasing fastest among people of color, younger individuals, and people who live in rural areas. Between 2011 and 2021, suicide death rates increased substantially among people of color, with the highest increase among AIAN people [American Indian and Alaska Native people]  (70% increase, from 16.5 to 28.1 per 100,000), followed by Black (58% increase, from 5.5 to 8.7 per 100,000), and Hispanic (39% increase, 5.7 to 7.9 per 100,000) people….The suicide death rate also increased in adolescents (48% increase, from 4.4 to 6.5 per 100,000) and young adults (39% increase, from 13.0 to 18.1 per 100,000) between 2011 and 2021….”

Suicide rates are up by nearly 50% in adolescents over the last decade, while suicides among Black people are up by almost 60%. These aren’t trends, they’re explosive changes. What we’re seeing in the data is our world in chaos.

Wrongo often says that American life has fallen apart over the past 30 years. People struggle to pay their bills; many do that by accumulating debt. For some, that struggle turns them to embrace demagogues, people who scapegoat innocents, or promise to take their rights away, robbing them of  their personhood.

When we see suicide rising particularly among groups who struggle the most for their existence, it says that something has gone terribly wrong with the American model. And in the suicide statistics, there is confirmation that our nearly Darwinian model is what’s wrong. Adolescents and minorities aren’t committing suicide at these rates because they can’t get therapy, but because they feel as if there’s little or no future for them. Sadly, they are told by many pundits and politicians that everything’s fine.

Perhaps this partially explains why Biden seems to be doing so badly in polls of young voters.

As one of the commenters at the issue says:

“It shouldn’t be ‘The pursuit of happiness’ it should be ‘The amelioration of misery’. Being free to pursue happiness when there isn’t enough…left to go around doesn’t do ‘We the people’ any good.”

So, it’s time to forget about Santos, Kissinger and Hamas for a few minutes. Tune in to your Saturday Soother, where we try to get distance from the news for long enough to be able to handle whatever’s coming next.

Here on the Fields of Wrong, we’ve completed our fall clean-up and now it’s on to putting up the deer fencing that protects the bushes around the Mansion. The tree is up and illuminated, and the first members of our family are coming to see it today.

While it’s a beautiful day in the northeast, it makes sense for you to stay indoors for now. Start by brewing up a mug of “The Antidote” coffee ($19.50/12oz.) from Apocalypse Coffee in Melbourne, FL. Now grab a comfy chair by a south facing window and watch and listen to Schubert’s “Serenade”. Written two years before his death, it’s a perfect example of the melancholic music Schubert was so well known for:

 

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Saturday Soother – Veterans Day, November 11, 2023

The Daily Escape:

Drone view of the Bentonite Hills, UT – November 2023 photo by Hilary Bralove

Today, Veterans Day, (there’s no apostrophe before or after the “s”) honors those who served, while Memorial Day honors those who died in military service.

Wrongo served in the US Army during the Vietnam era, although not in-country. Wrongo’s dad served in the Army in France and Germany in WWII. Wrongo didn’t get to meet his dad until dad came home from France after the war. Wrongo’s Grandfather served in the Navy in WWI, captaining a small boat on the east coast of the US. It is not clear exactly how he earned the nickname “Captain Sandbar”; that story is lost to history.

With few peaceful exceptions, wars are always going strong somewhere in the world. In the many centuries of European history up to 1945, an army crossed the Rhine on average once every 30 years. War was an important occupation for all of the major nations of Europe. But, in the 78 years since WWII, they’ve not only decided to not make war on each other, Europe has become a federation that has brought peace to the continent.

At least until Russia invaded Ukraine.

But it’s Saturday, our usual day to relax and try to escape the polycrisis we’re experiencing at home and abroad. This week, Democrats had a pretty good Election Day. And while some are concerned that Joe Manchin’s retirement will cost the Dems a Senate seat, Wrongo thinks we’ll just have to win elsewhere.

He’s also reasonably certain that last Tuesday’s results show polling isn’t capturing how Americans really feel about the economy. From Simon Rosenberg: (brackets by Wrongo)

“….[here’s] a reminder of this data from YouGov/Economist and the Conference Board I’ve been sharing of late that shows far more contentedness than is conventional wisdom:

Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way things are going in your life today? Satisfied 64%, Dissatisfied 35%

How happy would you say you are with your current job? Great deal/somewhat 80%, A little/not at all 19%.

Do you think your family income will increase or decrease in 2024? Increase 45%, stay the same 41%, decrease 15%.

Do you consider yourself paid fairly or underpaid in your job? Paid fairly 56%, Underpaid 38%.

Here’s a chart that makes it clear that job satisfaction is higher than it’s been in 35 years!

This gives a very different sense of where people are at compared to the NYT/Siena polling on a related question: “Thinking about the nation’s economy, how would you rate economic conditions today?” The answers were Excellent: 2%; Good:18%; Only Fair: 29%; Poor: 49%; and Didn’t know: 2%.

How do you square the idea that 62.3% of people surveyed said that they’re satisfied with their job with 49% of the people in the NYT poll saying that economic conditions are poor? Nobody who’s happy at work thinks the economy is poor.

Think about where we are: Over the next year Dems are going to spend $1 billion+ to tell swing state voters what Biden has accomplished on their behalf, while reminding them how historically awful Trump and the entire Republican party have become.

That gives Wrongo hope for 2024.

And if you are still craving bad news, Republicans are almost certain to shut down the government next week. The new House Speaker, Mike Johnson (R-LA), sent Congress home a day early for a long(ish) weekend, apparently because Johnson is giving a speech in Paris?

“The New Republic reported Friday that Johnson — who still has yet to present a plan to fund the government before the November 18 deadline — gaveled the House of Representatives out of session on Thursday so he can make it to the Worldwide Freedom Initiative’s (WFI) upcoming conference in Paris, France, where he’s due to speak Friday night.”

Johnson is expected to roll out his plan to fund the government by today as Republicans aim to vote Tuesday on some sort of plan. Chances aren’t great for a clean extension of the current deal.

As JVL says:

“The Republican party’s single biggest legislative initiative of the last three years—one championed by a Republican president and a majority of congressional Republicans—has been an attempt to overturn a free and fair election.”

The Republicans can’t get their shit together, so 8 days from now, America’s soldiers, air traffic controllers, food safety inspectors, IRS agents, border patrol and more will all go without pay. Some will be furloughed. Every government function will be effected.

They’re harming our economy and for what reason? They’re going to shut down the government because they mistakenly think it will be good for them politically.

But it’s time for our Saturday Soother, where we forget about Mike Johnson, Joe Manchin and the Israeli/Hamas war. Instead let’s find an oasis of calm for a few hours. Here on the fields of Wrong, we are still waiting for the oak trees to give up their leaves. Although they are always last to fall, this year it’s doubtful that we will be able to schedule our final fall clean-up before Thanksgiving. That’s weeks later than usual.

Now grab a comfy chair by a big window and watch and listen to J. Offenbach’s “Barcarolle”, from his “Tales of Hoffman”. A barcarolle was originally a Venetian gondolier’s song typified by gently rocking rhythms in 6/8 or 12/8 time.

Offenbach’s is the most famous example. Here it is performed by the Attika plucked string orchestra which includes eight mandolins:

Bob Dylan’s song “I’ve Made Up My Mind to Give Myself to You” from his 2020 album “Rough and Rowdy Ways” uses Offenbach’s “Barcarolle” as a riff.

 

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Can A Peace Be Brokered Between Israel And Hamas?

The Daily Escape:

Tug pushing barge Tongass Provider in Dutch Harbor, AK. This is the last big load of the season heading north before ice prevents boat travel – October 29, 2023 photo by Richard McKinley. Note how small the trucks and RVs look relative to all of the goods on the barge!

Saturday is when the Wrongologist expects to offer his readers a chance to calm down after what has become our all-too-common weeks of domestic and international horrors. We call this the “Saturday Soother”, but this week, once again, it may prove difficult to find soothing.

Wrongo’s column on Tuesday ended by asking:

“Can Biden broker a peace when neither side wants one?”

Friend of the blog, Brendan K. who has military experience in the Middle East (ME) said in response:

“A peace does need to be brokered, but by Arab leadership with Israel. Biden has no relevance in the Arab World…”

The point is that the US cannot be a staunch supporter of Israel and also be an honest broker between the combatants. That the US isn’t trustable isn’t a new idea in the Middle East; this has been an issue in most conflicts involving Israel for decades.

But it seems that the window on a brokered end to hostilities in Gaza may not be open for long. The idea that Israel has crossed the line of proportionality in their attacks on Gaza is growing among western countries, while the idea that Arabs must stand in solidarity with Hamas vs. Israel also seems to be growing throughout the world.

We don’t need to look very hard to find examples of how US actions with Israel compromise its possible value to broker peace. The Intercept has a story about the US building a secret base inside Israel:

“Two months before Hamas attacked Israel, the Pentagon awarded a multimillion-dollar contract to build US troop facilities for a secret base it maintains…within Israel’s Negev desert, just 20 miles from Gaza. Code-named “Site 512,” the longstanding US base is a radar facility that monitors the skies for missile attacks on Israel.”

In addition to hosting a radar site that is pointed toward Iran, the Army is constructing a “life support facility” there, which is military-speak for barracks for personnel. All of this is despite Biden insisting that there are no plans to send US troops to Israel given the war on Hamas. But the Intercept claims that a secret US military presence in Israel already exists. Apparently sites like this can house as many as 1,000 troops.

Add what the NYT reported on Friday about US drones over Gaza:

“The US military is flying surveillance drones over the Gaza Strip, according to two Defense Department officials and an analysis by The New York Times. The officials said the drones were being used to aid in hostage recovery efforts, indicating that the US is more involved than previously known.”

The Defense Department told the NYT that these unarmed surveillance flights are not supporting Israeli military operations on the ground. Instead, the goal was to assist in locating hostages, and pass potential leads to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Wrongo finds the claim that these drones have a single mission to be laughable. In addition, several dozen American commandos are now on the ground in Israel. This view of drone flight patterns is from the NYT:

Flights shown here are from Oct. 28 to Nov. 2, of which at least six flights were over Gaza. Flight path data is from FlightRadar24. Paths are approximate based on each flight’s reported position about every minute.

Hassan Nasrallah, head of Hezbollah in Lebanon offered a warning to Israel and the US when he spoke for the first time since the start of the Israel/Hamas war. The WSJ had some key takeaways from his televised address:

  • It isn’t yet time for a wider, regional war: “For those who say that Hezbollah should start a war in the entire region, I say wait. These are the beginnings.”
  • Hezbollah had no advance knowledge of Oct. 7 attacks: The decision “was 100% Palestinian and it was this specific utmost secrecy which made it so successful.”
  • Arab and Muslim states must enforce the diplomatic and economic isolation of Israel: “It is not enough to just issue statements.”
  • Israel can’t eliminate Hamas: “One of the biggest mistakes that Israel is making right now is setting goals that it cannot achieve, such as eliminating Hamas and the power of Hezbollah.”
  • There should be a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip: “The Arab and Islamic nations must at the very least make an effort to achieve a cease-fire, even if some of them do not want to…sacrifice anything.”

Nasrallah also cautioned Israel against launching a preemptive strike:

“I tell the Israelis, if you are considering carrying out a preemptive attack against Lebanon, it will be the most foolish mistake you make in your entire existence.”

Worse, the WSJ reports that the Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary outfit, plans to send air defenses to Hezbollah, which would be a major escalation in the Israel/Hamas war.

As expected, Netanyahu barked back with his own threat, warning Israel’s “enemies in the north” not to make the costly mistake of escalating the war:

“You cannot imagine how much this will cost you.”

It is very clear that  Israel has forgotten 2006. Back then, Hezbollah attacked Israel, who responded by attacking civilian targets in Lebanon in an effort to make the Lebanese government and people think that Hezbollah brought death and destruction to their country. The opposite effect happened with most Lebanese Muslims increasing their approval or support for Hezbollah, while even Lebanese Christians, normally not friendly to Islamic parties or militias, blamed Israel for attacking civilian targets as an act of punishment.

Doesn’t that sound just like the Israeli strategy in Gaza today, 17 years later? US Secretary of State Blinken also issued a warning:

“With regard to Lebanon, with regard to Hezbollah, with regard to Iran, we have been very clear from the outset that we are determined that there not be a second or third front opened in this conflict.  President Biden said on day one to anyone thinking of opening a second front, taking advantage of the situation, don’t. And we’ve backed up those words …with practical deeds.”

Wrongo is unsure what “practical deeds” Blinken is talking about. But it seems apparent that the warfighting strategy for Israel’s opponents is to continue to push the US into a position to overcommit until we can do no more. Wrongo thinks that Nasrallah will be reluctant to order a large missile attack against Israel because he knows that Israel will again attack Lebanese infrastructure with the complete blessing of the US.

As it presently stands, the Israel/Gaza situation is grim. There aren’t any reasons to expect Israel to voluntarily stop its ground operation, nor any indications as of yet that the Arab states are seriously considering attempting a diplomatic effort to achieve a cease fire.

Wrongo asked friend of the blog Brendan K. if he had an idea about how to extract Biden from the Israeli briar patch. And now Wrongo asks all readers: How/who has the ability to bring both sides to the table?

And here’s a music interlude that attempts to take our minds off of the ME for a few minutes. Watch and listen to “Hedwig’s Theme” by John Williams from Harry Potter performed at the BBC Proms Film Music night in 2011:

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Proportionality In Gaza

The Daily Escape:

Fall colors, Ophir, CO – October 2023 photo by Chirag A. Patel

Welcome to our Saturday Soother. The problem is that getting soothed today may prove difficult. Israel’s military said Friday night (local time) that its “ground forces are expanding” their operations in Gaza. The decision to expand ground operations was made by the Israeli War Cabinet after talks on a possible hostage release reached a stalemate.

More from Axios:

“The IDF’s expansion of its operations comes nearly three weeks after Hamas killed 1,400 people in the Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel. Since then, more than 7,000 Palestinians have been killed amid Israel’s bombardment of the Gaza Strip, according to the Ministry of Health in Hamas-run Gaza.

Hamas is holding more than 220 people hostage, according to Israeli officials. Most are Israeli, but the group is also holding Americans and other foreign nationals….Israeli officials have said the goal of a ground offensive is to “dismantle” Hamas infrastructure and completely “destroy” the militant group…”

GZero Media reminds us that we should keep in mind the political dimension: Since Hamas invaded Israel and conducted killings and kidnappings on Oct. 7, Netanyahu’s government has promised to exert maximum pressure on them. But Israel’s intense air campaign has only yielded the release of four hostages.

This new raid will certainly jeopardize the hostages, but it could be a political necessity for a government under pressure because of its intelligence and security failures prior to the Hamas attack.

But how Israel will take some or all of Gaza is daunting. Just ask veterans of Fallujah or Huế what urban combat is like: Then add in 2.3 million civilians with nowhere to run and a network of underground tunnels the enemy has been gearing up to defend for years, and you’ll get the idea.

If Israel goes all in, there’s no way to avoid intense, chaotic fighting and massive bloodshed. More from GZero:

“What’s more, the international pressure on Israel is mounting. The US…is urging Netanyahu to delay while it moves air defense assets into the region in case Iran or its proxies expand the conflict.”

The US objective is to avoid a widening war in the region or a long war involving Israel. It isn’t in Israel’s interest to engage in a long war either. Hamas and its friends have better plans than they have had before. Two examples:

  • Israel’s seaports are under constant attack. Ashkelon, which is in range of Gaza, has been closed. Eilat may have been the target of a Houthi missile strike (Yemen). Ashdod, which accounts for about 40% of incoming and outgoing Israeli seaborne trade, and Tel Aviv port have been targeted. The result is a tenfold increase in war risk insurance costs for vessels and cargoes, and the curtailment of international vessel movement in and out of the Israeli ports. Reports say that shipping is down 30% in Ashdod compared to pre-war.  Evergreen, the Taiwanese container shipping company, declared force majeure for Ashdod on October 17, diverted one vessel to Haifa, and halted future shipping into both ports.
  • Israel’s offshore Tamar gas field (operated by Chevron) has been shut down. It produces 70% of the gas required to fuel Israel’s electricity generation needs. Israel is at risk of losing its principal energy source to drone or missile attack.

Taking another big picture view, the indirect economic impacts of a prolonged war may become serious. The leading Israeli export revenue earners are diamonds ($9 billion/yr.), and tourism which peaked at $8.5 billion in 2019. Taken together, diamonds and tourism amount to more than 40% of the state’s export earnings.

And given the internal political situation in the US, we’re in no position to fight a war against Iran. We will not be in a strong position to resupply Israel if they get stuck in a Gaza quagmire. The longer this war goes on, the worse it will get for Israel economically. Fitch Ratings has lowered Israel’s outlook to negative after only two weeks.

Can Israel afford to have so much of their workforce in uniform for a protracted period? In the past their “wars” have been short campaigns where they attack somebody for a few weeks. When ammo gets short, they halt the fighting and get the US to restock their weapons.

The US has to look carefully at what is a fast-growing and dangerous situation. Steve Coll in the New Yorker reminds us how difficult it has been to manage our relationship with Israel:

“In Barack Obama’s White House, there were two schools of thought about managing the US’…alliance with Israel. Defense Secretary Robert Gates privately called the relationship “all give and no get,”….according to Dennis Ross, a Middle East hand who…wrote an eyewitness history of US-Israeli relations….as Ross summarized it, then-Vice-President Joe Biden argued for “drawing the Israelis close to us,”…to gain greater influence, even amid bitter disputes with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the expansion of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.”

More:

“Since the end of the Cold War, US Presidents have tried to steer toward a durable peace accord between Israelis and Palestinians—a negotiated “two-state solution” that would birth an independent Palestine, including Gaza. These days, many Palestinians and Israelis regard that project as futile, if not dangerously delusional.”

Our strategy of the moment seems to be to engage in saber-rattling to prevent international intervention in the Gaza invasion by Iran. What should be the end game for the US? The US is in no position to fight a war against Iran. The belief that it can, or should, is only neocon arrogance.

Biden and the Pentagon need to remind Americans that we have a real risk in this Gaza incursion. We have few friends in the Middle East, and Russia is on the side of Iran, Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Our relationships could get much, much worse if Israel doesn’t follow the rules of war in Gaza.

That is the biggest question in Israel’s move into Gaza. War is a rule-based activity, and that means the fighters have to weigh factors like the necessity of the military action, and whether the expected civilian harm is proportionate to the expected military gain.

Proportionality is a central concept in just war theory. There are two proportionality principles in just war theory, jus ad bellum, which governs the reason to go to war, and jus in bello, which governs conduct on the ground in war.

Today we’re worried about jus in bello, meaning what Israel does in Gaza should be proportional to the expected gain. Jus in bello restricts attacks to targets of military significance, a restriction that is difficult to meet when Hamas is hiding among civilians, hospitals, and mosques.

You can be certain that jus in bello considerations are part of the conversations that Israeli military and political elites are having with one another, along with the US and the rest of the world.

At some point, the disparity of casualties between what Israel has experienced and what happens in Gaza will become too much even for Biden, if not for the Israeli war cabinet. The Israeli deaths during the Hamas attack along with deaths of hostages must be weighed against the deaths in Gaza caused by Israel.

We can’t allow the US to be complicit in disproportionate civilian harm by Israel. That would be a permanent black eye for US foreign policy. Let’s close with a philosophy discussion between that noted anti-war activist, Dr. Hawkeye Pierce from the 4077th Mobile Army Surgical Hospital (MASH) and the unit’s Chaplin, Father Mulcahy:

“Hawkeye: War isn’t Hell. War is war, and Hell is Hell. And of the two, war is a lot worse.

Father Mulcahy: How do you figure that, Hawkeye?

Hawkeye: Easy, Father. Tell me, who goes to Hell?

Father Mulcahy: Sinners, I believe.

Hawkeye: Exactly. There are no innocent bystanders in Hell. War is chock full of them — little kids, cripples, old ladies. In fact, except for some of the brass, almost everybody involved is an innocent bystander.”

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Sunday Soother – October 22, 2023

The demise of Sunday Cartoon Blogging was greeted without crying by the Wrongologist faithful, but maybe we need a laugh today. Herewith is the best cartoon of the week:

Jordan blew it:

And here is the best photo of art this week: West Bank wall – via Street Art by Banksy:

(This was executed in 2005 by Banksy on the West Bank barrier wall in Abu Dis.)

There’s only a small chance that we’ll get totally soothed after a most tumultuous week. John Dick, CEO of CivicScience reports that: (emphasis and brackets by Wrongo)

“People are glued to the Israel-Hamas war. In our 3 Things to Know this week, we found that 81% of US adults are paying close attention to the crisis in Israel – although [for] younger people, much less so. This high level of attention carries across age and political affiliations, but older adults and Republicans are much more likely to follow it very closely.”

Having both a war in Congress and the war in Gaza so dominate the news makes it hard for people to get sufficient distance to see these events in any real context. But, on this rainy Sunday in Connecticut, let’s give Soothing the old college try.

We had the local arborist come by to get a quote for tree work on the Fields of Wrong. When the cold weather comes, shaping and pruning trees and felling them is easier. We need all three. We’re delaying our fall clean-up for a few more weeks, since we still have many trees with green leaves. It looks like the clean-up will begin during the first week of November, or maybe when Congress is likely to select a new Speaker.

So here at the start of another week that will certainly be filled with momentous news, let’s try deep breathing and some robust coffee to start us off for the week. Let’s brew up a mug of Opus Dark Roast ($19.99/12oz.) from San Jose CA’s Chromatic Coffee. It is said to have notes of dark chocolate and burnt sugar. Yummy!

Now grab a seat by a south-facing window and watch and listen to two different pieces, both of which gesture towards finding peace among combatants. First, from JS Bach’s “B minor Mass, here is “Dona Nobis Pacem” (Latin for “Grant us peace”). It is performed by the English Baroque Soloists & Monteverdi Choir and conducted by Sir John Eliot Gardiner:

Now for a change of pace, listen to Alicia Keys perform her 2014 song “We Are Here”. It describes Keys’ frustration with both national and international issues, including the conflict at the time between Israel and Gaza. Following the song’s release, Keys launched a movement, called the “We Are Here Movement” calling for a more equal and just world:

Sample lyric:

Let’s talk about Gaza
Let’s talk about, let’s talk about Israel
Cause right now it is real
Let’s talk about, let’s talk Nigeria
And the mass hysteria, yeah
Our souls are brought together
So that we can love each other, brother

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What’s Israel’s Strategy If They Eliminate Hamas?

The Daily Escape:

Escalante NM, UT – October 2023 drone photo by Brete Thomas

Last night, President Biden said that the world is at an inflection point. The next stage of the Israel/Hamas conflict is beginning. From the WaPo:

“Israeli troops are massing around the Gaza Strip, poised for a ground invasion that could involve heavy urban combat in the densely populated territory. The buildup of force comes after attackers from the militant group Hamas, which controls the enclave, crossed into southern Israel, killing at least 1,400 people and taking more than 200 hostages.”has and will be written about the next stage concerns what is a “justifiable” retaliatory action by the Israelis. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have already pummeled Gaza with airstrikes, killing more than 3,000 Palestinians, according to the Palestinians.

Much of what the Israelis seemingly are planning on doing is entirely justifiable, so long as there is an overarching strategy behind it. What we do know is that Israel has vowed to “destroy” Hamas. That means an extensive ground war in Gaza.

Without a strategy for what happens after Hamas is rooted out, this will look more like a reprisal strike whenever the IDF leaves Gaza. And there’s absolutely a moral problem with reprisals that kill many civilians. The law (and custom) of war would say there isn’t a problem with reprisals in which you’re killing only Hamas. But if the IDF happens to kill a lot of civilians along the way, even if it is lawful, the world would want to see that Israel has a long-term strategic objective that justifies those actions.

The WaPo quotes Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at Rand Corp: (parenthesis by Wrongo)

“Basically what the Israelis are aiming for is complete regime change in Gaza, which is a notable break from past campaigns….If you want to root out Hamas, it’s going to last a lot more than 50 days like Protective Edge, (referring to the IDF’s 2014 Gaza operation)”.

The general rule is that armies are not allowed to target civilians, but you are allowed to target combatants or belligerents of the other side. Urban warfare has always shown that civilians and belligerents are not necessarily distinct from one another. Often the fighters aren’t wearing uniforms.

The US military saw this in Mosul and Raqqa while fighting ISIS. The bad guys are basing themselves in the same buildings that civilians live in. That means the military has to weigh factors like the necessity of the military strike, and whether the expected civilian harm is proportionate to the expected military gain.

Let’s game out how it might look on the ground in Gaza. Remember, that Hamas is thought to have a membership of between 20,000 and 25,000.

First, Israel will have control of the airspace over Gaza. That will make rooftops a very poor place for Hamas sniper and rocket positions.

Second, Israel has amassed artillery and tanks to provide massive firepower. This is an advantage to IDF troops since overwhelming firepower will reduce risk to its soldiers. But it is a huge disadvantage to civilian populations, and it’s incredibly destructive to the city. Also, tanks could be vulnerable to antitank weapons and will be limited by narrow urban streets.

Third, urban warfare tactics will probably be stalemated at the start. Expect Hamas to take up positions in buildings where they will have cover against attacking IDF forces. But Israeli soldiers will bring explosives to blow through walls and enter buildings or rooms from unexpected directions. The size of the IDF forces will gradually wear down Hamas.

Fourth, Gaza has many tunnels built for allowing Hamas to move around the city undetected. The IDF will either flood the tunnels or permanently entomb Hamas soldiers in them using explosives.

Regardless, many people in Gaza will die, some of whom will be Hamas members.

So the big questions are what is Israel’s exit strategy? How will Gaza be governed post-Hamas? And how will the IDF minimize civilian casualties?

Here’s some context. You can read this and say “what about” a fact or two? But the overarching issue is: Can these two peoples with different religions live peacefully in very close contact, given all that has happened since the Balfour Declaration? Israelis came to a land that already had a native population, and the land to share between them wasn’t very large. That required that some of the people who were already on the land had to be moved.

Sounds like America and it’s manifest destiny move westward.

A reality on the ground in Israel and in Gaza is that the Palestinian population is growing faster than Israel’s. This makes for continued contests (legal and illegal) over control of land, and this frozen conflict has now once again burst into active warfare.

And regarding strategy? It may be as simple as let’s get rid of Hamas. Let’s end the cycle of violence and rebuild. No one asked FDR what to do with Germany on D-Day.

If Israel can eliminate Hamas while minimizing civilian casualties, that would be a good start. Then if the Palestinians can put together a government that actually wants: a) to build a functioning economy (without having its existence justified by perpetual war) and b) can check the “Israel has a right to exist” box, perhaps peace could happen.

The Israelis will likely have to be pushed to accept a viable Palestinian state, since this will mean political conflict with its West Bank settlers. A critical question is how hard the US and other nations are willing to push for peace between the parties. It seems likely that the current conflict may create an opportunity to push for peace. Let’s hope Israel is ready to grasp it.

The Arab states are looking on nervously. The outraged response to the hospital bombing in Gaza reminds us that even authoritarian governments sometimes must be responsive to their citizens. It’s possible that in the future, Israel may still face active challenges from hostile regimes in Syria, Jordan, and Egypt. To assume otherwise is just wishful thinking.

The world is staring down the real possibility that this local conflict might morph into a regional war. There will be both short and longer term global consequences for America regardless of Israel’s strategy post-Hamas.

(Sorry, no Saturday Soother today. Instead, let’s hope for minimized deaths and casualties from the Israel/Hamas war.)

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They Have No Plan Except To Fight Each Other

The Daily Escape:

Nauset Beach, Orleans, MA – October 2023 iPhone photo by Wrongo

It’s already been a long year…and there are still 3 months left! Two issues dominated this week: the Hamas war on Israel and the Republican intramurals in the House.

Let’s start with the Republicans. Semafor reports that Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) gave up on his quest to become Speaker even though he had been nominated by his caucus as their candidate:

“Scalise withdrew himself from the speaker’s race just one day after colleagues narrowly nominated him for the job, as it became clear he lacked the 217 votes necessary to secure the chair. But there are serious doubts that Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH),  Scalise’s top rival, can pull together the support necessary for a win — in part due to the bad blood over his contest against Scalise.”

This isn’t a time for Republican arm wrestling. The country and the world need attention. As AB Stoddard says at the Bulwark:

“THE REPUBLICANS WHO CONTROL the House of Representatives cannot respond to a new war waged against Israel. They have rejected new aid to support Ukraine in its defense against the Russian invasion. They have no plan to keep the government from shutting down on November 17 when funding next runs dry.”

Right now, there’s no path forward. While many things in this world are broken, this isn’t a case of American politics being “broken”. If as many pundits say, American politics are broken, we’d have seen things just like this when Democrats controlled the House. But they didn’t. What’s broken is the Republican Party.

A few House Republicans have suggested that their only choice might be to strike a bargain with Democrats. But behind closed doors, there hasn’t been a real effort to hatch a bipartisan deal, writes Semafor’s Kadia Goba: (brackets by Wrongo)

“I don’t think there has been legitimate outreach….Sure, those members talk to the press, but not to Hakeem Jeffries [the Democrats’ Majority Leader] or leadership.”

The potentially disastrous consequences of a broken House of Representatives are real, and some Republicans understand that. GOP Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) said the following after Scalise withdrew his name from consideration:

“We are living in a dangerous world, the world’s on fire. Our adversaries are watching what we do — and quite frankly, they like it. I see a lot of threats out there. One of the biggest threats I see is in the [GOP caucus] room, because we can’t unify as a conference and put the speaker in the chair…”

Brian Tyler Cohen, who hosts the podcast No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen, summed up where the GOP is at with his post on Xitter:

“The fact that ALL Republicans would rather fight over Scalise (who attended a neo-Nazi event) or Jordan (who allegedly covered up rampant sexual abuse) rather than simply work with Democrats to elect a Speaker says it all.”

There are two possible paths forward: Either the Republicans unite behind one candidate for Speaker, or they accept that it will take some Democratic votes to elect a bipartisan candidate. “Bipartisan” is a dirty word among many House Republicans. They have broken the House and have zero intent to fix it.

They must be stopped before they break us all.

The murderous rampage by Hamas last weekend against Israeli civilians and Israel’s sharp response will reverberate for years to come. Eric Levitz wrote in New York Magazine:

“This weekend in Israel, a far-right Islamist group perpetrated the largest mass killing of Jews since the Holocaust, murdering entire families, including babies…and slaughtering 260 concertgoers. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in all, and over 100 others taken hostage.

Israel’s far-right government predictably responded by choking off all food, electricity, and fuel to Gaza’s 2 million residents and then preparing a military assault more untempered by concern for civilian casualties than ever before.”

The Israeli Ministry of Defense just notified the UN that Palestinians living in Gaza City should evacuate to the southern part of the Gaza Strip. But more than 1 million Palestinians live in this area. How is it possible for so many people to move, even if they had months to do it?

If you are a member of the center-left, It is difficult to see any positive influence on this situation. It shouldn’t be a question of whether you’re for Israel or against it. Terrorism directed at civilians is abhorrent regardless of who’s doing it.

And here at home, conservative pundits exploited Hamas’ attack to fearmonger about immigrants in America. Several right-wing media figures have baselessly warned that Hamas or other “sleeper cells” are lying in wait to attack major American cities, calling October 13 “Day of Jihad”. They also used this lie against American Muslims after 9/11.

What’s happening now between Israel and Hamas makes you want to throw up your hands in despair. It’s impossible to think of or see a solution that can satisfy all sides. Despite that, we need to take a break from so much frustration. We need our Saturday Soother. We need to stiffen our spines for what will be yet another week of horror and nonsense.

Here on Cape Cod, the weather is seasonably crisp, so we will be wearing jackets to today’s Wellfleet Oysterfest. Later, we’ll go to the beach to watch the sunset that is coming earlier every day.

To meditate for a few moments on the Hamas/Israel war, grab a comfy chair and listen to John Lennon’s “Imagine” from his 1971 album of the same name. Released during the heart of the Vietnam War, Lennon asks us to envision a world of peace and unity. “Nothing to kill or die for And no religion too”:

Sample Lyric:

Imagine there’s no countries
It isn’t hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion too
Imagine all the people
Living life in peace

You may say I’m a dreamer
But I’m not the only one
I hope someday you’ll join us
And the world will be as one

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What A New House Speaker Means For America

The Daily Escape:

Autumn, Rocky Mountain Front, MT – October 2023 photo by Jack Bell Photography

We’re all trying NOT to follow what’s going on in the House. Since Matt Gaetz and friends fired Kevin McCarthy, pretty much every newscast and paper are covering it. Wrongo will add his few words to the hot steaming pile of wordsmith.

McCarthy’s downfall is proof that no good deed goes unpunished. His decision to shake hands with Democrats on a short-term budget deal, kept the government open, but drew a challenge to his Speakership from a small group of chaos caucus Republicans. These eight mutinying members of his Party felt that McCarthy committed the unforgivable sin of compromise with Democrats.

It’s useful to remember that 91 Republicans voted against McCarthy’s bill to keep the government open.

That, along with McCarthy’s unwillingness to make any concessions to the Dems for future funding requirements like Ukraine, made it clear that there was no good reason for them to do anything to help McCarthy and the GOP caucus to resolve their internal differences.

At the highest level, America is now looking at an uncertain period of being (un) governed, in fact, held hostage by a tiny group of eight “chaos Republicans”. If the Republican House members select a new Speaker from the current two front runners, Steve Scalise (LA) and Jim Jordan (OH), their Party will tip further to the Right than it was under McCarthy, and there doesn’t seem to be a middle ground.

Just eight Republicans were in love enough with chaos to vote against Mr. McCarthy; more than 200 other Republicans understood that chaos isn’t conducive to sound policymaking. And 32 of those who supported McCarthy are members of the Problem Solvers Caucus, which is in theory dedicated to bipartisan solutions.

The WaPo has a great chart that lays out just how small the chaos caucus is vs. Republicans who voted for McCarthy:

Those Republican Problem Solvers are very angry at the caucus’ Democratic members for not supporting McCarthy when he was dethroned. All the House Dems who voted, voted against McCarthy (208), while four Dems weren’t present.

So now, a government shut-down seems assured. But the reality is that despite the best wishes of the chaos caucus, the government cannot remain unfunded forever. And their demands for capitulation by Biden to the GOP’s fever dreams for cutting spending will never happen.

The House can’t do anything without a Speaker, so the pressure is massive to choose one. And the Republicans will probably find a way to choose one without requiring any Democratic votes to support their choice. But when government funding runs out in mid-November, we’ll get to the real logical driver of partisan politics, the absolute necessity to fund the government.

When the new Speaker can’t pass a funding bill that is supported by the Senate, the new Speaker will eventually see the value in again seeking Democratic support.

The math drives this. The functional majority in the House will be that group who are willing to pay our bills on time by funding the government. Of the 221 Republican House members, 130 of them voted to avoid the shutdown, and 91 voted for it. The new Speaker needs to wrangle 218 votes to pass a bill on to the Senate. So if only 130 Republicans are willing to govern, Democrats will have to supply the difference.

Roll Call reports that the Republican vote for the next Speaker will take place next Wednesday morning, so we’ll soon see if the impasse can be resolved.

Another interesting turnabout this week was the Biden administration deciding to waive two dozen environmental laws in order to resume building the wall on the southern border. Trump demanded an apology because Biden had promised in 2020 there would “not be another foot” of wall if he won.

The White House now claims the administration’s hands were tied by appropriations bills that required them to spend the money. Said Biden:

“The money was appropriated for the border wall…I tried to get them to reappropriate it, to redirect that money. They didn’t, they wouldn’t.”

Biden added he still doesn’t believe walls are an effective solution, but Republicans are crowing “I TOLD YOU SO” with this announcement. But since it was FY2019 money that couldn’t be reprogrammed, we should be asking why it wasn’t spent while Trump was still in office.

Wrongo is applying for a patent on his new invention. It’s called “the magic button”. You press it and any intractable problem simply disappears without a trace. It will be ready for use sometime after the 12th. The 12th of never.

On to the Saturday Soother, where we spend this Saturday of a three-day weekend attempting to escape from the news cycle. Wrongo and Ms. Right are on Cape Cod for our annual fall getaway that dovetails with the various Oysterfests on the Cape.

This means that columns may be light and variable for the next 10 days.

It’s raining in the Northeast, so, it’s mostly indoor sports today. To help you let go of the week’s news, grab a comfy chair by a window and brew up a cup of Kick Ass coffee from Canada’s Kicking Horse Coffee.

Now watch and listen to “My One And Only Love”, the old standard performed here by legendary saxophonist John Coltrane and singer Johnny Hartman. This was recorded in 1963 and features McCoy Tyner on piano. If you want to take your mind off a few things today, this will surely help:

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