The Labor Department on Friday reported that the economy added a seasonally adjusted 528,000 jobs in July, far more than the 258,000 economists expected to see. And the headline rate of unemployment  fell to 3.5%, back to the multi-decade low we experienced just before the start of the pandemic.
With the upward revisions to the last two months, there are now 22,000 more jobs than there were just before the pandemic. Further, the mix of these new jobs skews away from the lower paying sectors toward higher paying ones. The WSJ reports that in July, there were about a million more jobs combined in the so-called goods-producing sectorsâmanufacturing, construction, mining and loggingâplus the retail trade and warehousing and transportation sectors, than in February 2020. And there were about a million fewer jobs in the remaining service-sector industries.
Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose by 96,000, but are still -7.1% below their pre-pandemic peak. And within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments added 74,100 jobs, but are still about 635,000, or -5.1% below their pre-pandemic peak.
But it wasnât all good news. The number of people employed as a share of the working-age population was 60% last month, below February 2020âs 61.2%. If it could return to that percentage, there would be millions more Americans working. An interesting fact in the employment report was that there were 656,000 more people out sick last month than in July 2019. On to cartoons.
The Kansas vote dropped on the wicked witch:
What Kansas taught us this week:
Pelosi sparks a flame:
Alex Jones finally grabbed by his appendage:
The US kills another al-Qaeda leader, but nothing changes in Afghanistan:
El Morro National Monument, NM – monsoon rains have turned the brown landscape green – July 2022 photo by Kirk Shoemaker
We need to talk about Taiwan. China said that they wouldnât tolerate a visit to Taiwan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and that there would be severe consequences if she failed to heed Chinaâs warning. But she ignored China, and went anyway.
China then launched a comprehensive set of war games, showing clearly how they might invade and take over Taiwan militarily at some point in the future. China then announced it sanctioned Pelosi and her family. Now, according to the BBC, China has said all dialogue between US and Chinese defense officials would be cancelled, while co-operation on returning illegal immigrants, climate change, and on investigating international crime would be suspended.
You know the broad outline of the issues: China viewed Pelosiâs visit as a challenge to its claims of sovereignty over Taiwan, even though Taiwan is self-ruled, and sees itself as distinct from the mainland.
As China has become a global leader, their abilities and ambitions have shifted. A 1997 trip to Taiwan by then US House Speaker Newt Gingrich, was met with little opposition, while the Speaker Pelosi visit has been met with missiles. This is a complicated issue. China doesnât control Taiwan; it doesnât issue travel visas for it, either. In April, a group of US Senators visited Taiwan. At the time, Chinaâs Foreign Ministry condemned the visit in a series of tweets and press statements, but nothing more.
The US has wanted to keep Taiwan in its orbit at least since the 1950âs when General Douglas MacArthur, then the Supreme Commander of allied powers in Japan, sent a top secret âMemorandum on Formosaâ to President Truman (Back then, Formosa was the name of Taiwan). To contain communism, MacArthur insisted that Truman consider the strategically located Formosa (Taiwan) as a counterbalance to the Soviet and Chinese regional expansion:
âFormosa in the hands of the Communists can be compared to an unsinkable aircraft carrier….â
He argued that Taiwan should instead be an unsinkable US aircraft carrier, projecting American power in the Pacific. As China grew in power and importance, the US adopted a policy of strategic ambiguity with respect to the two countries, wanting good relations with both and wanting to finesse the question of political control of Taiwan.
But lately, the US has been slowly walking away from the doctrine of strategic ambiguity, increasingly signaling to China that it considers Taiwan a core US interest in North Asia. That’s why the Chinese reacted so strongly to a high level politician like Pelosi visiting Taiwan.
Itâs also true that the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits are among the worldâs busiest seaways, and that’s where China’s military exercises are now taking place:
Source: Bloomberg. The dots are vessels, the polygons are Chinaâs military drill areas
âThere are moments in international relations when you need to keep your eyes on the prize. Today that prize is crystal clear: We must ensure that Ukraine is able, at a minimum, to blunt â and, at a maximum, reverse â Vladimir Putinâs unprovoked invasion…â
Biden had held a series of tough meetings with Xi, trying to keep Beijing out of the Ukraine conflict. Friedman says that Biden told President Xi that if China entered the war in Ukraine on Russiaâs side, Beijing would be risking access to its two most important export markets â the US and the EU. More from Friedman:
âBy all indications…China has responded by not providing military aid to Putin â at a time when the US and NATO have been giving Ukraine intelligence support and a significant number of advanced weapons that have done serious damage to the military of Russia, Chinaâs ostensible ally.â
So why mess with Bidenâs Ukraine power play, Nancy? Thatâs Friedmanâs question. OTOH, everyone knows that the minute we bend a knee to China is when we lose our ability to defend Taiwan and hold on to the unsinkable aircraft carrier.
China hasnât proven itself capable of dealing with Taiwan except through threats since Chiang Kai-Shek left the mainland and took over in Taiwan in 1950. If China wants to control Taiwan without a fight, it has to stop threatening to rape her if she doesnât want to date. Every Chinese threat increases Taiwanâs separate national identity, and decreases the chance of a peaceful Chinese takeover.
Time to leave geopolitics behind, itâs time for our Saturday Soother, where we focus on clearing our minds for the week to come. Here on the fields of Wrong, we have a crew rebuilding a stone wall by the road that was hit by a large truck a few years ago.
Letâs start by finding that one last can of nitro cold brew in the back of the refrigerator and grab a seat by a large window. Now put on your wireless headphones and listen to âDanse Bacchanaleâ by Camille Saint-SaĂ«ns from his opera âSamson et Dalilaâ, played here by the Orquesta SinfĂłnica Juvenil de Caracas, Venezuela in 2010:
This is played at a very quick tempo, and with passion!
Well, this was predictable. NPR reported that China’s ambassador to the US warned that the US could face a possible âmilitary conflictâ with China over Taiwan:
“If the Taiwanese authorities, emboldened by the US, keep going down the road for independence, it most likely will involve China and the United States, the two big countries, in a military conflict.”
It isnât a coincidence that China raises the specter of war while the US is focused on a possible threat by Russia in Ukraine. This week, 39 Chinese military aircraft flew near Taiwan, including two of China’s most advanced warplanes, their J-16D jets. Military analysts think that the J-16D has capacity to interfere with Taiwan’s defense radar systems and could make a huge difference in combat.
This is more evidence of how strategically fraught Americaâs legacy global policies are in a multi-polar world. Russia is threatening NATO and our Western allies, while simultaneously, China threatens our strategic position in Asia. We havenât fought a two-theater war in 77 years, and haven’t won a war since.
Itâs ironic that neither Taiwan nor Ukraine are formal mutual defense treaty partners with the US, yet US defense hawks think we should defend either or both. On to cartoons.
Surviving is difficult when you live in the wild:
Some voices on the Right support Russia:
Breyer retires, but opinions differ on who owns the right to replace him:
There seems very little Republicans can do to stop Biden from filling this seat, since thereâs no filibuster for Supreme Court nominees. That was taken away by Mitch McConnell, during the nomination of Neil Gorsuch.
Mitch looks for a loophole:
The never-ending Republican hissy fit:
Art Spiegelmanâs Pulitzer Prize winning book, âMAUSâ, is a memoir about the Holocaust. It was banned last week by a school board in Tennessee. In the book, the cats are the Germans while the mice are the Jews:
Weâve entered uncharted territory. Trump had a phone call with the president of Taiwan. Why is that such an issue? Presidents speak to other world leaders all the time, but American presidents have not spoken to the president of Taiwan since 1979. This studied form of non-recognition is at the core of the One-China Policy.
That policy states that there is only one state called “China”, despite the existence of two governments claiming to be China. This diplomatic dance works precisely because everybody agrees to abide by rules that don’t make complete sense.
We learned from experience in Korea and Vietnam, where we acted with hostility to both âtwo countryâ standoffs between a communist and a non-communist government. We learned, and then changed the game when it came to the two Chinas. That is, until President-Elect Trump was lured into the Taiwan call by his advisors, John Bolton and Stephen Yates. This from the Guardian: (strike out and brackets by the Wrongologist)
Bolton wrote in the Wall Street Journal in January: âThe new US administration could start with receiving Taiwanese diplomats officially at the State Department; upgrading the status of US representation in Taipei from a private âinstituteâ to an official diplomatic mission; inviting Taiwanâs president to travel officially to America; allowing the most senior US officials to visit Taiwan to transact government business; and ultimately restoring full diplomatic recognition.â
Stephen Yates, a former White House aide to Dick Cheney now advising the Trump transition was in Taiwan at the time of [Trumpâs] the call. âItâs great to have a leader willing to ignore those who say he cannot take a simple call from another democratically elected leader,â Yates tweeted.
China reacted by saying Trump needs to be educated about the world. Scott Adams, Trump butt-boy, puts it in about the most favorable light possible:
Trump is âsetting the tableâ for future negotiations with China. He just subtracted something from Chinaâs brand that they value, and later he will negotiate with them to maybe give it back in some fashion. Probably in return for some trade concessions.
It didnât end there. Trump apparently has invited Philippine President Duterte to the White House. Figuring out how to resolve Duterteâs issues with the US, his embrace of China, and his demonstrated abuse of human rights in the Philippines should be high on the new administrationâs list of issues. It would have been smart to have the outline of an agreed joint solution in place before rewarding Duterte with a state visit.
And there was Trumpâs phone call with the Prime Minister of Pakistan. According to the Pakistani account of the conversation, Trump told Nawaz Sharif that Pakistan is a âfantasticâ country full of âfantasticâ people that he âwould loveâ to visit as president.
Just awesome, except for Trump ignoring that India, our real partner in that part of Asia, is Pakistanâs enemy. Trump risks appearing to reward Pakistan at the expense of our relationship with India. Again, the US has maintained a balancing act between these two countries, who have a history of war and skirmishes over their disputed border.
The jury is out on what Trump is trying to do, and whether it is based on strategy, or ideology. Speaking with Taiwan’s and Pakistanâs leaders are potentially dangerous moves, as is his engagement with Duterte.
They are also potentially revolutionary. Every out-of-the-box move by Trump challenges norms and potentially blows up longstanding ways of doing things. If you are gonna shake things up, it’s all-important that you understand exactly why we have done things the way we have, and what the implications are of change. We know Trump is an instinctive guy, and not a willing student. The danger is his willingness to overturn complex situations where governmental institutions have had very good reasons for the policy they support.
This is the dark underbelly of Trumpâs populism. He was elected to shake things up by voters who dismiss facts, if presented by journalists.
You start by discrediting what came before. You call it elite failure. You shake things up because you can.
Time to wake up, America! Think about Michael Mooreâs calling Trump a human Molotov cocktail on NBCâs âMeet the Pressâ:
Across the Midwest, across the Rustbelt, I understand why a lot of people are angry. And they see Donald Trump as their human Molotov cocktail…I think they love the idea of blowing up the system.
So, letâs wake up today with the Billy Joel song, âWe Didn’t Start the Fireâ. The lyrics to this song catalog both personalities and historic events from 1949 until 1989:
We didnât start Trumpâs fire, but get ready, we may very well have to put it out.
Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.
Sample lyrics: Harry Truman, Doris Day, Red China, Johnnie Ray
South Pacific, Walter Winchell, Joe DiMaggio
Joe McCarthy, Richard Nixon, Studebaker, Television
North Korea, South Korea, Marilyn Monroe
Rosenbergs, H-Bomb, Sugar Ray, Panmunjom Brando, The King And I, and The Catcher In The Rye Eisenhower, Vaccine, England’s got a new queen Marciano, Liberace, Santayana goodbye
We didn’t start the fire It was always burning Since the world’s been turning We didn’t start the fire No we didn’t light it But we tried to fight it
