Wrongo’s Seen Enough

The Daily Escape:

Tini Martini Bar, St. Augustine, FL – December 2023 photo by Rosie Taylor Photography. Wrongo and Ms. Right have had many martinis there in the recent past.

Wrongo has seen enough. The US must change direction in its support for Israel’s war in Gaza. This isn’t an easy decision. Israel has suffered mightily at the hands of Hamas in Gaza and at the hands of Hezbollah in Lebanon with its backer, Iran.

Wrongo has written about the lack of proportionality in Israel’s attacks in Gaza. Now that the war is two+ months old, there can be little doubt that by turning about half of Gaza into a parking lot, Israel’s war is at least as much about uprooting Palestinians as it is about destroying Hamas.

It would be naïve to think that cutting off (or reducing) American funding to Israel would materially improve the chances of Palestinian statehood. And the prospects of that happening have been decreased both by Israel’s disproportionate response to 10/7 and by Netanyahu’s explicit opposition to any form of Palestinian statehood post-hostilities.

Unless the war is ended soon, it will widen beyond Gaza.

It’s already heating up in Lebanon with Hezbollah firing more than 1,000 different types of rockets, missiles, drones, and mortars toward Israel since October 8. Newsweek asked how close Israel was to full-scale war in Lebanon. Israel’s spokesperson said:

“…we could have been at war with Hezbollah…based solely on their actions, their violation of Israeli sovereignty and the casualties that they have caused…”

The tempo of attacks along the boundary between Israel and Lebanon are at levels not seen since the IDF and Hezbollah fought in 2006. Axios reports that Israel told the Biden administration it wants Hezbollah to move six miles back from its border, far enough that they will not be able to fire at Israeli towns along the border. But why would Hezbollah agree?

In Yemen, the Houthi are attacking ships transiting the Red Sea. The US announced a new multinational security initiative aimed at protecting ships in the Red Sea from Houthi attacks. Apparently it’s mostly a PR effort. Politico reported that three additional US destroyers have been moved into the Mediterranean Sea and a Carrier Strike Group vessel has been moved into the Gulf of Aden. Attacks by Houthi militants have prompted Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) (both are container shipping companies) to avoid the area.

And inside the Israel/Hamas war in Gaza, CNN reports that an IDF sniper killed a mother and daughter inside the Holy Family Parish in Gaza on Saturday. Seven others were wounded in the attack on the complex, which is housing most of Gaza’s Christian families seeking safety. Pope Francis condemned it.

Also, Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza is no longer functioning and patients including babies have been evacuated, Reuters reported. Last week Israeli forces used a bulldozer to smash through the outside of the hospital.

Israel itself is roiled by the deaths of three Israeli hostages who were mistakenly killed by the IDF in Gaza. Apparently one was carrying a stick with a white cloth says the BBC. This sparked angry protests in Tel Aviv, where thousands of people called for a truce, chanting “Bring them home now“.

Netanyahu refused, saying Israel only had leverage if they continued to fight:

“Military pressure is necessary both for the return of the hostages and for victory. Without military pressure…we have nothing…”

For its part, Hamas said it will not release hostages until the war ends and Israel accepts its conditions for an exchange of 7,000 Palestinian prisoners, which Netanyahu says is a non-starter.

Biden is beginning to get uncomfortable. Recent polling by New York Times/Siena College shows that:

“Voters broadly disapprove of the way President Biden is handling the bloody strife between Israelis and Palestinians….with younger Americans far more critical than older voters of both Israel’s conduct and of the administration’s response to the war in Gaza.”

Here’s a chart from the NYT:

But among young voters, 46% sympathize more with the Palestinians, against 27% who favor Israel. Only 28% of those between the ages of 18 and 29 said Israel was seriously interested in a peaceful solution to the broader conflict, while older voters had far more faith in Israel’s intentions and less in the Palestinians’. Biden sees this and is casting blame on the hardline members of Netanyahu’s war cabinet more than on the prime minister:

“One of the things that Bibi understands, but I’m not sure…[Israel’s Minister of National Security Itamar] Ben-Gvir and his War Cabinet do…they’re starting to lose that support by the indiscriminate bombing that takes place…”

More from Biden:

“You cannot say there’s no Palestinian state at all in the future.”

But that’s exactly what Netanyahu said on Sunday:

“I’m proud that I prevented the establishment of a Palestinian state because today everybody understands what that Palestine state could have been…Now that we’ve seen the little Palestinian state in Gaza, everyone understands what would have happened if we had capitulated to international pressures and enabled a state like that on the West Bank.”

What’s Israel’s end game? It says it wants its hostages back and Hamas eliminated.

Wrongo thinks that Israel has crossed a line with both the excessive killing of Palestinian civilians and the excessive destruction of Gaza infrastructure. The human toll in Gaza may be incalculable, but DW estimates that the costs of rebuilding what has been destroyed through the Israeli bombardment of Gaza may be as high as $50 billion. Who will step up to pay for that?

Also, its likely that Israel has intentionally or not, created a new generation of antisemites living on their border for the next several decades.

America has very limited influence over Israel’s conduct, regardless of our level of funding, so our decision-making needs to be based on other factors. The 2024 election is the most important domestic factor. Biden should do whatever maximizes the chances of his re-election.

A thought exercise: By explicitly rejecting the two-state solution Israel either supports the “one state” or a “no state” solution. The “one state” solution requires that both sides live together on the same land in peace. But decades of history shows that Israelis and Palestinians can’t live together in peace. So the “one state” solution isn’t viable.

That means looking to a solution where Israel divests the Palestinian population of their citizenship, rights, ancestry and land. Where would the Palestinians live? Does it follow that Israel will insist that they be deported? If Israel even tries this, the world will no longer be the same.

Finally, is there a better way to unite all the other ME states against Israel than the current prolonged bombing/ground campaign, followed by a rejection of the two state solution? All that Israel is accomplishing is fanning the flames of religious zealotry. History says that never ends well.

Take a break and listen to “Happy Xmas (War Is Over)” released in 1971 by John & Yoko/Plastic Ono Band with the Harlem Community Choir. Having the kids chorus in the background elevates this tune:

And one line worth remembering: “War is over, if you want it”

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Taking a Break From Domestic Politics

(The next column will appear on Monday 3/14. Starting tomorrow, the Wrongologist and Ms. Oh So Right are attending a wedding in Vermont)

Our preoccupation with the primaries, and dick-measuring has obscured several things that are happening around the world. Let’s take a quick look at three things we have talked about in the past.

US Russia/Middle East policy. Sec. Def. Ash Carter, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Joseph Dunford, and the wacky NATO Commander, Gen. Phillip Breedlove, all seem to be intent precipitating a war with Russia. Last week at a Congressional hearing, Breedlove called Russia “America’s greatest strategic threat.” He went on to accuse Vladimir Putin of “Weaponizing” the flood of ME refugees into Europe as a plan “to overwhelm European structures and break European resolve.”

We have our disagreements with Russia, we certainly hate what they did in Crimea and what they are doing in Ukraine. The jury is out on whether they are saving or frying our bacon in Syria, but it seems that we are (almost) on the same page there, except for our insistence that Assad must go.

It pays to remember that Russia is armed with several thousand nuclear weapons. Is it really wise for the head of NATO to pick a fight with a country that he knows feels deeply threatened by NATO expansion?

Our policy with Israel. Netanyahu has once again shown his contempt for Obama by spurning an invitation to meet in the Oval Office. When the Iran deal went down over Israel’s strong disagreement, the US agreed to send Israel more equipment and money to shore up their defenses against Iran. But, Netanyahu wants even more money and equipment than Obama is willing to give him, and he thinks that he will get a better “deal” from the next US president. Tom Friedman observed on PBS that Obama has quietly given up on the two-state solution, that it is up to Israel to implement a “one-state” solution: (brackets and emphasis by the Wrongologist)

The idea that they need John Kerry…to come over…It’s got to start with them. I think the most constructive thing President Obama could do [is]…say, we tried. It’s over. There’s going to be a one-state solution.

Friedman says all the Israelis do is pick apart new peace plans, making it more about the US, not about the warring factions in Israel: (brackets by the Wrongologist)

The Americans [should say]…nobody’s coming. It’s over. It’s yours. You own it. Now you live with it.

And fix it if you can. But can we expect that from ANY of the current presidential candidates? No, they all say that they are Bibi’s greatest supporters. So we can expect the policy of “whatever Bibi wants, Bibi gets” to continue.

Finally, Turkey: Turkey is a member of NATO. Turkey wants to become a member of the EU. But, President Tayyip Erdogan is moving quickly to make Turkey an illiberal democracy. Turkish elections are democratic and mostly fair, but the government that they elect imprisons journalists, reassigns police in the middle of inconvenient investigations, and most recently, closed the country’s largest newspaper. In fact, 2000 people have been arrested just for insulting President Erdogan.

The EU is considering accelerating Turkey’s negotiations for EU membership. That process, which has been stalled for years, normally requires a candidate country to meet basic standards on pesky items from the independence of its judiciary, to press freedoms, two things missing in today’s Turkey.

The EU is crafting a devil’s bargain. They want Turkey to open up new refugee resettlement camps to hold the Syrians who cross from Turkey to Greece, and on to the rest of Europe. But shopping in the Turkish bazaar is never wise for the novice. The EU learned that lesson this week, when it discovered the refugee deal it believed it had previously sold to Turkish leaders turned out to be just the beginning of the negotiation on Monday. Turkey’s counter offer would have prompted EU negotiators to get up and walk out six months ago. Ankara’s proposal:

• €3 billion in refugee aid in addition to the €3 billion already pledged.
• Liberalized visas for Turkish citizens to visit the EU.
• A pledge by the EU to resettle the same number of Syrian refugees already in Turkish refugee camps, as Turkey takes in when the EU sends them back.
• Accelerated consideration of Turkish EU membership.

Turkey’s message to Europe is: You need us more than we need you. Their message back should be: we’ll give you the money. That’s it.

In closing, Wrongo just can’t resist a brief return (excuse the pun on briefs) to the US general election. Hillary’s likely reaction to Trump’s exhibitionism: “Somewhat like a penis, only MUCH smaller”.

COW Trump Package

 

 

 

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Sunday Cartoon Blogging – March 22, 2015

Back from 85° in Costa Rica to another snow storm in the Northeast. A few things happened while Wrongo and Ms. Oh So Right were away. One wasn’t a surprise: Bibi Netanyahu’s Likud Party again claimed the most seats in the Knesset. It’s hard for Americans to wrap their minds around the fact that 75% of Israeli voters can be against a guy, and yet, in a parliamentary system he’s still the Prime Minister.

Mr. Netanyahu’s last-minute declaration that there will be no Palestinian state finally rips the fig leaf off of the failed peace process. No one will try to keep up that facade any longer. He claimed subsequently that he never really meant it, but when pressed by a close election, out came the old big bad idea, just like a Costa Rican Black Iguana:

DSCN3013

We need to add some distance between the US and Israel, particularly in light of Netanyahu’s move to invalidate the two-state solution. The Obama administration could agree to passage of a UN Security Council resolution embodying principles of a two-state solution, something we have always opposed. To really pay-back Bibi for grandstanding in DC and meddling in the P5+1 nuclear negotiations, we should base the two-state solution on the pre-1967 lines between Israel and the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Most foreign policy experts say that Israel would have to cede territory to the Palestinians in exchange for holding on to the major Jewish settlements built by Bibi in the West Bank.

Perhaps it is a good thing that Bibi won the election. It’s time to give him a dose of reality. Yeah, it’s time to call bullshit on Bibi. Now a few cartoons.

Bibi isolates Israel:

COW Bibi's postition

 

 

 

 

 

Bibi’s domestic campaign message was a cheap imitation:

COW Bibi Message

Obama goes to the experts for advice on undermining a leader:

COW Advice from Rs

Obama suggests voting be mandatory. Reaction is predictable:

COW Obama suggestion

Republicans try to find the losers in their bracket. Please help them out:

3285e750aec20132cfad005056a9545d

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