Tag: Yemen/Saudi War

Biden’s Excellent Middle East Adventure

The Daily Escape:

Early morning, Garden of the Gods, Colorado Springs, CO – July 2022 photo by Steve Volke

In an op-ed in the WaPo on July 9, Biden focused on security and said his administration had “reversed the blank-check policy we inherited” for Saudi Arabia:

“From the start, my aim was to reorient — but not rupture — relations with a country that’s been a strategic partner for 80 years,”

Biden started his trip in Israel, and according to al-Monitor, his visit to Israel is mostly about Iran:

“The visit is expected to take US-Israel defense cooperation to a whole new level with an eye toward Iran and a plan B in case the nuclear talks collapse, or as a deterrent posture, even if they do.”

This signals to Wrongo that Biden has very low expectations that a return to the Iran Nuclear Deal is possible. It’s also probable that Biden doesn’t want the Nuclear Deal to be another political football in the 2022 mid-terms. We also learned this week that Iran will be supplying drones to the Russians, ostensibly to use in Ukraine, another reason to further isolate Iran rather than close the Nuclear Deal.

Biden will also try to create a new initiative tying Saudi Arabia into an eventual participation in the Abraham Accords. He’s also seeking an agreement with the Saudis that would permit Israeli commercial jets to fly over Saudi airspace.

Biden’s visit comes when Israel is holding its fifth election in under four years in November after the government headed by PM Naftali Bennett collapsed last month. The previous four elections were largely referendums on Netanyahu’s fitness to serve as PM while under indictment for corruption. Of note, former Prime Minister (and accused felon) Netanyahu only got a 15 minute audience with Biden on Thursday.

Biden visits East Jerusalem and the West Bank today, meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. His reception will be frosty. Biden has angered Palestinians when he said on Wednesday that a two-state solution was not feasible “in the near term”, although he walked that back later in the visit. Biden will also announce a $100 million grant to six hospitals in East Jerusalem.

Later on Friday, Biden touches down in Saudi Arabia, the country he said was a “pariah.” According to Bloomberg, this visit follows months of shuttle diplomacy that attempted to repair the alliance.

A pressing decision for Biden this week may be choosing an appropriate greeting for the Saudi leader he said he would snub. And his decision is more complicated after Biden had an extended handshake with Netanyahu, and then couldn’t seem to stop doing the same with other Israeli officials.

Bloomberg says that Biden wasn’t supposed to shake hands with any foreign leaders during his Middle East trip, largely as a Covid precaution. That would also have helped avoid a handshake with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Now a handshake with the pariah in chief seems certain to happen.

The Saudi visit isn’t about American influence. Rather, it highlights America’s need to try to control its costs of energy. The “get” for Biden is whether Saudi Arabia will again be a swing producer of oil when American needs it. But the Saudis and the UAE are the only members of the OPEC with significant unused output. Together they have a buffer of about 3 million barrels a day, or about 3% of global oil output. That’s roughly equivalent to the amount of Russian oil that is being kept off the market by sanctions.

This is what Biden is bargaining for. Of course, he could cut a deal with Iran or Venezuela, but that would cause serious political fallout at home.

As Wrongo has said, world crude production and refining output are struggling to keep pace with the post-pandemic rebound in demand. It is clear that the price of gasoline remains a source of political peril for Biden heading to mid-term elections. So we’ll see how far Biden will bend to get an oil deal done, even though it won’t do much for gas prices.

The other big thing that may come from meeting the Saudis would be to weld Saudi Arabia into the anti-Iran Middle East military alliance that Israel wants. To facilitate this, the Biden administration is considering lifting its ban on selling offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia.

That’s a huge turnaround. Just days after taking the presidential oath, Biden announced the US planned to cut off arms sales for Saudi Arabia’s operations in Yemen, and reverse the decision to designate the Iranian-backed Houthis as a terrorist organization.

Eighteen months later, there’s a cease-fire in Yemen, an underreported diplomatic victory for Biden. It’s proving more durable than anyone thought, and the US is again thinking about selling the Saudis more weapons.

Whatever the outcome of Biden’s trip, the US remains overcommitted in the ME, so the quagmire will continue.

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Monday Wake Up Call – September 16, 2019

The Daily Escape:

Rainy morning, Emerald Lake, Yoho NP British Columbia CN – 2019 photo by mrgoomba7

On September 14, explosions rocked the Saudi’s Khurais oilfield as well as the Abqaiq refinery, one of Saudi Arabia’s most vital petrochemical installations. Several hours later, the Houthis claimed that they had targeted both facilities with ten drones. In reality, it now seems that 17 drones or cruise missiles hit the Saudi plants.

There is a continuing debate on who launched the attack. Pompeo tweeted that it was the Iranians:

Perfect positioning by America’s First Diplomat!

While Pompeo says Iran did it, the Arms Control Wonk reports that the Houthis have both the technology and ability. The US, Israel and Iran also have the capability to conduct such an attack.

Saudi Arabia and the US will no doubt eventually figure out who owned the missiles used in the attack, but that won’t resolve the question of guilt, or complicity to everyone’s satisfaction. Some are saying that the Abqaiq oil field is too far from Yemen for them to be the culprit. Yet, the US supplied these photos of the damage, including an arrow helpfully pointing to north (it’s pointing left, while the shadows mean the sun is in the east):

The boxes showing damage mean the missiles came from the west, where Yemen is located. Iran is located to the Northeast, as are Israel and Iraq.

But please wait, and let Washington tell you what to believe.

The most important takeaway is that Saudi Arabia has no real defense against this kind of attack. In mid-June 2019, a cruise missile fired by the Houthis hit the terminal of Abha Airport in Southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 26 passengers.

The Saudis use two US air defense systems, the Patriot, and the Hawk missile systems. Both are deployed in Saudi’s northeast, facing the Persian Gulf. They do not provide defensive cover for the attacked oil refineries if the missile or drone is fired from the south or west:

The Patriots are useful against cruise or ballistic missiles. The Hawks are for aircraft. But no system could protect all of the Saudi’s oil field facilities if 17 missiles are fired at once.

Despite the hopes of DC’s Iran-hating Neocons, it is possible that the attack originated in Yemen. The Saudi war in Yemen was launched in 2015. It costs Saudi Arabia several billion dollars per month. The Saudi budget deficit again increased this year and is expected to reach 7% of its GDP.  They need much higher oil prices to help prosecute the Yemen war.

Also, Saudi Arabia is planning to sell a share of its state owned oil conglomerate, Aramco, which may be worth $2 Trillion. But who would buy a share of Aramco when its major installations are not secure, and has endured crippling attacks?

Assuming this attack isn’t a one-off, the Saudis probably will need a cease-fire or a peace deal with Yemen before it can sell Aramco shares for a decent price. It is likely that the Houthis will demand reparations payments from the Saudis in order to make peace.

The first Saudi attempts to negotiate happened two weeks ago. The Hill reports they asked the Trump administration to work out an agreement with the Houthis:

“The Trump administration is preparing to initiate negotiations with Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in an effort to bring the four-year civil war in Yemen to an end….The effort is reportedly aimed at convincing Saudi Arabia to take part in secret talks with the rebels in Oman to help broker a cease-fire in the conflict, which has emerged as a front line in the regional proxy war between Riyadh and Tehran.”

But it hasn’t led to anything.

Back in DC, we’re hearing that the US must have some response to the missile attacks.

Why?

America wasn’t attacked. We’re not even sure who carried out the attack, and there is at least a small probability that it was some disaffected group within Saudi Arabia itself.

We do not have a mutual security agreement with Saudi Arabia, although we are strategic partners.

Now the poor helpless Saudis will want their best friend Trump to attack Iran, much to the delight of Israel and the Neocons. And a refinery attack showing Saudi’s lack of defenses may get Trump off the dime.

How on God’s green earth is this in our national interest?

Trump and Pompeo are trying to position us on the Sunni side of a region-wide sectarian civil war. That would be a disaster for us and for all in the Middle East.

Wake up, America! Most who work in DC in any power capacity have been dreaming of war with Iran for decades. Yet, somehow they haven’t made it happen.

Let’s hope that continues.

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