The Wrongologist

As the
Wrongologist wrote after the
election, Mr. Obama’s election victory was the result of micro-targeting of undecideds and persuadable voters in the swing
states and then turning them out on election day.

The Obama
campaign used ‘microlistening” to make every vote
count. They parsed voters’ concerns in fine detail. These data were then
consolidated in the campaign’s Dreamcatcher database.

Then the data
was loaded into another campaign program, Narwhal, so that every fact gathered about a voter
was available to every arm of the campaign. This information-sharing
allowed the Obama For America (OFA) ground game to turn out people whom data-mining
had pinpointed as likely to be friendly to Mr. Obama’s views.

The election is
over, but Narwhal is alive and well, using the data and concepts developed in the campaign
to learn more about peoples’ opinions about
the Obama administration’s positions on the Fiscal Cliff negotiations and call
them to action.

So,
What’s Wrong?

They
should use Narwhal for two other purposes: First, to win a majority in the US
House of Representatives in 2014. Second, to make a conclusive case for
Obamacare.

Let’s start with the 2014
election: Mr. Obama’s legacy would be burnished by passing the remainder
of his legislative agenda, but that will require control of both houses of Congress.
Deploying Narwhal successfully could
be the key to doing that. This means a pick-up of 25 seats compared to
2012. Steve Israel,
head of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, will need Narwhal’s help to
pull that 25-seat rabbit out of the congressional hat.

But, as Politico
reports, history
is against Democrats getting a majority in the House in 2014. The party controlling the White
House during a president’s sixth year in office has lost seats in every midterm
election but one since 1918. The average loss in those elections was 30
seats.

Party
leaders say they are focusing on around 50 Republican seats in 2014,
particularly those in areas where Obama performed strongly in his two
elections. Israel has identified the four most vulnerable as Ohio Rep.-elect
David Joyce, Illinois Rep.-elect Rodney Davis, Florida Rep. Bill Young and
California Rep. Gary Miller. That
leaves 21 more for the Democrats to find.

Also according to Politico, there were 14 Democrats and 12
Republicans that won by razor-thin margins in 2012. The Wrongologist is only counting those
who won by less than 4.4% of the total vote. Given that most Congressional
Districts are relatively small; this translates into less than 3000 votes in
most cases. It is also very important for
Democrats to hold on to the 14 seats they won by 3000 votes or less, or
the job is much more daunting.

So, Narwhal for 2014!

Selling
Obamacare: Mr. Obama did not fare
particularly well with white working class voters, but they are going to be among the prime beneficiaries of Obamacare.
Recent polling shows the potential for tremendous gains for Democrats among
segments of the electorate who seem generally unaware of the value they stand to receive through Obamacare:

“78% of the uninsured
Americans who are likely to qualify for [medical insurance] subsidies were
unfamiliar with the new coverage options in a survey by Democratic polling firm
Lake Research Partners. That survey, [sponsored by the nonprofit Enroll America]
also found that 83% of those likely to qualify for the expansion of Medicaid,
which is expected to cover 12 million Americans, were unaware of the option.”

(Emphasis by the Wrongologist)

People know
about the Mandate in the ACA, which requires that people get health insurance. But people have no clue about how Obamacare makes health care insurance
affordable.

Enroll America, a nonpartisan 501(c)(3) organization
whose mission is to ensure that all Americans are enrolled in and retain health
coverage, ran
focus groups in Philadelphia in
mid-November, working exclusively with those who would probably qualify for
benefits. Looking to understand how
much public education will be needed, the researchers came back with a simple answer: a lot.

When asked about whether
they had heard about any ACA provisions that might make insurance more
affordable, not one of the 31 participants in the four groups answered yes.

It isn’t likely that people
in West Virginia or Arkansas are any more informed. Once they learn
the details, it may turn out that they
will like Obamacare despite hating the Mandate and/or the President.

Boone County, WV is 98.5% white and
22% of its residents live in poverty. The median household income in the county
is $25,669. In 2012, the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) is set
at $11,170 for a one-person household and rises by $3,960 for each additional
family member. So, the FPL for a
four-person family in 2012 is $23,050.  

It is
likely that that many families in Boone County are going to eligible for health
care subsidies in the highest range. Obamacare rules state that people and families earning up to 133% of
FPL will have to pay only 2% of their income toward the health insurance
premium.

This means that a family
of four who makes the median income of $25,669 will only have to pay 2% of their income ($513/annually) toward a $10,000 health insurance plan.  

While
Mr. Obama only received 33% of the vote in Boone County, the next Democratic presidential
candidate may have a great shot at
improving that number. This may
be true in white, rural counties all over America.

If a
poor family of four living in Appalachia can receive $9,500 a year to make sure they all have health insurance,
you have effectively
counter-programmed the pap they see on Fox News.

Narwhal could be a key to the
Democrat’s future in poor white America if it can solve this awareness problem. This challenge is in Narwhal’s
wheelhouse: You need people to enroll in Obamacare; they don’t know how or
don’t understand why they should enroll. You
locate them, contact them, figure out their motivation, explain to them, and
then they go and do it. 

That’s Narwhal. Narwhal got millions of folks to vote. Surely it
can be used to get millions of people who need health coverage to accept (mostly)
free health insurance.

At this moment when we are
desperately searching for a way to get things done in Congress, it is a necessity that Narwhal
is funded by Democrats.