The Wrongologist

What’s
Wrong Today:

From
Michael Klare at Tom
Dispatch:

Is it
possible that we’re witnessing the beginnings of a new Cold War in the Middle
East?

Here
is what we know:

On
Tuesday, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon threatened the Russian Federation, saying that if Moscow followed through
on its plan to send the S-300 air defense system to Syria, Israel would bomb
the arrays. Since the systems will be accompanied by Russian experts, any
Israeli strike on them could well kill Russian personnel and create a crisis
between nuclear states not seen since India and Pakistan played atomic chicken
in 2002.

Who
is Moshe Yaalon? He is an Israeli Neo-con who was fired as Army Chief of Staff
in 2005 for opposing the Israeli withdrawal of settlements from the Gaza Strip.
He later joined the far right Likud Party. He has called the Palestinians a
“cancer” and said Israel had to consider killing Iranian president Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad.

In
short, he is a hothead, not what you would like to see as the defense minister
of a nuclear-armed state.

From
Reuters
this morning:

Israel
is afraid that the missiles could fall into the hands of opposition forces such
as the Al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra Front, and could be fired at civilian
Israeli jets. They should also be afraid that if the regime was on the verge of
falling, they might be transferred to Hezbollah and so constrain Israeli
freedom of movement in southern Lebanon. Finally, the Wrongologist was an air
defense missile unit commander during the Vietnam era. Air defense missiles can
also be very accurate ground-to-ground weapons and Israel must know that.   

The
S-300 has an operational range of 200km (120 miles), well over the distance
between Daraa in Syria and Israel’s Ben Gurion airport (133km or 80 miles),
meaning that the installation of S-300s at Daraa could potentially shoot down
planes landing at and taking off from Israel’s main airport. That is a threat.

The US Air Force knows the older
export versions of the S-300 that Russia sold to Greece. They know how to
defeat those. But the systems the Russians use today have had several upgrades
in their radars, electronic systems and have new missile engines. With the
S-300s being delivered now, any attempt to enforce a “no-fly zone” is
likely to start with lots of downed “western” (Israeli) jets and a
high casualty count.

So, this looks like a checkmate
move.

As
we reported yesterday,
Russia is determined to shore up the regime of Bashar al-Assad and strengthening
Syria’s air defenses is key to the regime’s survival. That strengthening does
not help against the rebel Free Syrian Army, which has no air force.  

Putin
took a very dim view of what NATO did in Libya and is determined to prevent a
repeat of that intervention against a client state of Russia’s. He is also
concerned that continued Israeli air strikes on Syria could weaken the fragile government
in Damascus.

If
Putin is to be taken seriously, he might call Israel’s bluff. At that point,
Yaalon will have to risk escalation with Russia, or quietly accept that Syria
is in the latter’s sphere of influence, not Tel Aviv’s.

Either
step will represent a big change in the geopolitics of the Middle East.

Given
that both Israel and Russia are nuclear states, and given the complete US
backing for Israel, conflict between those two is extremely dangerous for the US and for the
world.

What
is the US to do? Escalate further and risk widening the war throughout the
Middle East, including substantial Russian involvement? Stand down and stop
supplying additional weapons to the rebels in Syria?

How will the US keep the reins on Israel once S-300s are operational in Syria?

What are
the other alternatives?

Russia
looks like it could be the last man standing in Syria. And rebuilding this
quagmire will be up to them.

Let
‘em have it. It will be their new Afghanistan, or Chechnya.