Whatâs
Wrong Today:
There seems to be a
deal emerging between Iran and the P5+1 Group, who have been negotiating about
Iranâs nuclear program. As this is written, US Secretary of State Kerry is in
Geneva, soon to be joined by the French, German and British foreign ministers.
The Russian minister, Lavarov, is on his way. Word is that there may be an interim deal signed with Iran in the next few
days.
At the
same time, it appears that there is a move
by the US away from Israel. This seems to be happening for multiple
reasons, but the flash point appears to be the intransigence of Mr. Netanyahu,
who canât seem to get behind any peace initiative with his neighbors.
After trying many times to get Mr. Netanyahu
to accept serious negotiations with the Palestinians, this week, Mr. Kerry finally
started to talk tough: On Thursday, he criticized Israelâs
decision to build 5,000 new housing units in East Jerusalem and other
settlements, after announcing the release of a group of Palestinian prisoners.
Kerry said settlement expansion sends a message that âperhaps youâre not really
serious,â during an interview which aired on Israelâs Channel 2, as well as in
Palestinian media. Mr. Kerry:
Palestinians and Israelis, if we do not find a way to find peace, there will be
an increasing isolation of Israel, there will be an increasing campaign of
delegitimization of Israel thatâs been taking place on an international basis
Kerry added an additional warning to
the Israeli public. He urged making peace âwith a [Palestinian] leadership that
is committed to non-violence,â otherwise Israel âmay wind up with [Palestinian]
leadership that is committed to violence.â
Second, Mr. Netanyahu after two
meetings with Mr. Kerry this week called the emerging deal with Iran a
“historic mistake” and a very “bad deal”
(video). He appears to be losing the ear of the Obama Administration, if not
those of Republicans in DC. All
this was said in front of a group of visiting US lawmakers, according the NYT.
Despite his objections,
the Iranian deal may still go forward, so
Israel is getting a diplomatic beat
down even as a temporary deal with Iran is in the making.
Iran’s new government
showing a friendlier face and explaining its nuclear program in English while maintaining its basic
position on its program, is giving the US a chance to back down somewhat from its increasingly
untenable position. It may be that the current sanctions will soon
begin to be difficult to maintain. Robert Einhorn, a former State Department
official who supports the administrationâs negotiating strategy, recently dismissed
Mr. Netanyahuâs maximalist position (total elimination of enrichment
activities) as ânot achievableâ. The NYT reported that he told the following to the Israel Project: âI
donât think any Iranian government could sell that deal at homeâ. He also said:
unraveling of sanctions if it looked like we, and not the Iranians, were the
cause of the impasse
The other party
against a deal with Iran is Saudi Arabia. They view Iran as their major Middle
East competitor. Yesterday, the BBC had an article about the Saudiâs quest to acquire Pakistani-built nuclear
weapons.
rumored, and often reported, that in return for bankrolling the Pakistani nuclear weapons project, Saudi Arabia has a claim on
some of those weapons in a time of need. It has never been proved though, nor
has it ever been clear how such a deal would work
There is nothing new
in the piece. That the Saudis financed those weapons and could have short-notice
access to them has been known for decades. However, the BBC relaunched the
story with this:
a senior NATO decision maker told me that he had seen intelligence reporting
that nuclear weapons made in Pakistan on behalf of Saudi Arabia are now sitting
ready for delivery…Last month Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military
intelligence, told a conference in Sweden that if Iran got the bomb, “the
Saudis will not wait one month. They already paid for the bomb, they will go to
Pakistan and bring what they need to bring.”
The BBC
talks about a âNATO-decision makerâ, but the quote is from an Israeli.
So, are the Saudis gearing up to create a new
balance of nuclear power in the Middle East? Are they
calculating that, with sanctions lifted, Iran will export more oil, earn more
foreign exchange and bankroll their nuclear weapons program before the West can
respond? Is the leak about Saudi nuclear weapons an implied threat to the P5+1?
As the
Wrongologist reported last week, Saudi
Arabia’s foreign policy is undergoing significant shifts. It made a decision
not to accept the UN Security Council seat, and criticized the US policy in
Syria. The Middle East situation has simply become less predictable. In some ways,
Sunni Saudi Arabia is the Taliban with mega-bucks.
Moreover,
Saudi has a newly discovered missile site. It was revealed in July, 2013 by IHS Jane’s
Intelligence Review.
They reviewed images showing a surface-to-surface missile base deep in the
Saudi desert, with capabilities of hitting Israel or Iran. The base, believed
to have been built within the last five years, gives an insight into Saudi
strategic thinking at a time of heightened tensions in the Gulf. It is designed
for Saudi Arabia’s arsenal of DF3 missiles, which have a range of 1,500-2,500
miles and can carry a two-ton payload. The Telegraph provided this map
demonstrating the range of the Saudi missiles:
The Telegraph reminds us that a confidential
diplomatic cable revealed in the 2010 “WikiLeaks” disclosures said
that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia repeatedly exhorted the United States to
launch military strikes against Iran’s nuclear program and “cut off the
head of the snake”.
We
now know that the Saudis have ballistic missiles minus warheads ready for
action. It is a crafty move. The Saudis can to continue as a signatory of the NPT
(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), potentially pass any inspection and at the
same time, be 30-60 days away from being a member of the nuclear club. Interesting. That is exactly the Iranian strategy
that worries Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Still, it
is doubtful that Pakistan is ready to send nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia
today. They are friendly with Iran and Pakistan’s reputation suffered the last
time they assisted other countries with nuclear weapons technology sales by AQ
Khan, (with governmental support), to North Korea, Iran and Libya.
If Pakistan
did transfer nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia, the Saudis would have to withdraw
from the NPT. Any US military sales to either Pakistan or to Saudi Arabia would
have to stop. Also, Saudi Arabia has no need today for nuclear weapons. It can
wait to see if Iran’s program will be blunted through diplomatic means.
The Saudis
are constantly calibrating the costs and benefits of all of their
relationships. The bet here is that they are a long way from calling in their nuclear
chit from Pakistan. But it clearly serves Israel and Saudi Arabia to have another
proliferation story front and center while US and Iran sit down in Geneva.
There is a
change going on in the USâs relationship with the Islamic world, as Sunni Islam
becomes more extreme and sectarian conflict grips the Middle East. The West may
be starting to back the Shia minority as a counter balance, thus the warming
relationships with Iran. Perhaps the Obama Administration sees the wisdom in a
balance of power, even if old friends are angered.
Realpolitik
in action.
As a “Mick” perhaps I don’t have as much sympathy for Israel as do others. So be it. But the demographics do not favor Israel. Over time, the US will be less Eurocentric, and more Hispanic, Black and Asian – and these folks don’t share the guilt over the holocaust the Europeans and Euro-Americans do. Israel gotta get on the boat now before it sails. And it will sail.