Whatâs
Wrong Today:
From Ben
Casselman at 538:
(brackets by the Wrongologist)
the [high school] class of 2013 was enrolled in college last fall, the
lowest share of new graduates since 2006 and the third decline in the past four
years, according to data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Among all
16- to 24-year-olds, college enrollment experienced its biggest decline in at
least two decades. The report echoes other evidence that college enrollment has declined after
surging during the recession:
Enrollment was on a
general upward trend, but peaked in 2012 and has since dropped in each of the
last two years. The fact that this is a two-year drop suggests that it isnât
just a one-time fluke in a volatile series. The drop in college attendance by recent high
school graduates is concentrated among groups most likely to be
deciding between going to school and joining the labor force: Part-time and
community college enrollments saw the sharpest decline. Meanwhile, the
enrollment rate increased for four-year colleges, where costs have been rising
the fastest. For-profit colleges, which have been subject to mounting criticism over their high costs and
inconsistent educational value, have also seen enrollment decline.
Many
analysts have attributed the slowdown in college attendance to the rapidly
rising cost of a higher education. That may be true, but the decline in
enrollments may have as much to do with obverse, the perceived value of the degree. Charles
Hugh Smith has looked at the rapid growth in student loans vs. the growth
in median income for people with bachelorâs degrees:
Higher education is busy turning students into debt-serfs via student
loans, while our economy provides a diminishing return on the investment.
Despite
the recent downtick, college enrollment remains above pre-recession levels. In
1982, 26.6% of 18- to 24-year-olds were enrolled in college; in 2012, that
figure stood at 41%. In some ways, Americaâs higher education model reflects
supply and demand: The more demand for a degree, the higher its cost. The
greater the supply of degreed graduates, the lower is the market value of the
degree.
According
to Heidi Shierholz of EPI:
drop in enrollment rates is worrisome, particularly to the extent that it is
due to students being forced to drop out of school, or never enter, either
because the lack of decent work in the weak recovery meant they could not put
themselves through school, or because their parents were unable to help them
pay for school due to their own income, or wealth losses during the Great
Recession and its aftermath
According
to Ben Casselman, the recent decline
was concentrated among women. Women still attend college at a higher
rate than men, as they have for decades. But the gap is narrowing: In 2013,
68.4% of female high school graduates enrolled in college, versus 63.5% of male
grads. In the class of 2009, by contrast, 73.8% of women attended college,
versus 66% of men.
Less than
60% of African-American and Hispanic members of the class of 2013 were enrolled
in college last fall, compared to 67% of white graduates. The numbers are
volatile from year to year, but neither gap has narrowed meaningfully over the
past 20 years. Moreover, young black and Hispanic Americans also have a higher
unemployment rate than whites, suggesting they arenât choosing to skip college
because of strong job prospects.
Choosing
not to go to college can have long-term consequences. The unemployment rate for
16- to 24-year-old high school graduates with no college education was 18.9% in
2013, versus 8.3% for college graduates.
And those
who do manage to find jobs earn less than their college-educated peers: Among
25 to 34-year-olds employed full-time, year-round, college graduates earn 50%
more than those with a high school diploma.
Despite
the lifetime earnings argument, increasing costs and decreasing benefits of a
college degree pose a barrier for many kids from families with lower incomes,
who are going to college in lower numbers than those in the higher income
distributions.
