Salt Run, St. Augustine FL – April 2024 iPhone photo by Wrongo. This is a tidal inlet fed by the Atlantic Ocean. The far shore is a protected state park and the ocean is just over the dunes in the distance.
Wrongo has been enjoying the spring weather here in Florida, the second stop on our caravan of sibling visits in the south. This view is from my sisterâs home.
Many cartoons this week about OJâs death, along with lots about Arizonaâs new anti-abortion bill. Hereâs the best that I found. First, a leftover about the eclipse from earlier in the week:
OJ left the building, but isnât home yet:
OJâs running just like back in the day:
Ukraine Will Lose If Republicans Have Their Way:
School voucher money is shrinking public school funding:
With a few exceptions, those private schools that far outpace the public ones have the advantage of being able to pick and choose their students. Also, the public gets the schools it demands.
The Arizona fallout wonât be limited to abortion:
Atlantic Ocean, St. Augustine FL â 2019 photo by Wrongo. (Wrongo and Ms. Right are on their annual trip to visit siblings who moved from the Northeast to Southern climes. Columns will be light and variable until April 22.)
With Israelâs killing of the seven humanitarian aid workers from World Central Kitchen (WCK), did Netanyahu deliver the final straw to the US and the Biden administrationâs unconditionally having Israelâs back in their war with Hamas? From Axios:
âIsrael’s killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers has the makings of a watershed moment â rapidly accelerating a decline in U.S. support for the war in Gaza, Axios’ Zachary Basu writes.
The big picture: Frustration with the Israeli government has been building inside the White House for months as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has worsened. It’s now boiling over.â
Itâs difficult to say what is actually policy and what is political theater when parsing the words of Biden and Blinken about what Israel needs to do next in order to keep the US supplying armaments. You may vote for theater when learning that CNN has two stories that seem to indicate it will be business as usual with Netanyahu and the Israeli government. First Natasha Bertrand reported:
â…the Biden administration is close to approving the sale of as many as 50 American-made F-15 fighter jets to Israel, in a deal expected to be worth more than $18 billion…â
âThe Biden administration recently authorized the transfer of over 1,000 500-pound bombs and over 1,000 small-diameter bombs to Israel….adding to its arsenal despite US concerns over the countryâs conduct in the war in Gaza. The transfer authorization of the MK82 bombs and small-diameter bombs, more than 2,000 munitions in total, occurred on Monday…â
âWe know Israelis. Israelis, in their heart of hearts, know that food is not a weapon of war.
Israel is better than the way this war is being waged. It is better than blocking food and medicine to civilians. It is better than killing aid workers who had coordinated their movements with the Israel Defense Forces….The Israeli government needs to open more land routes for food and medicine today. It needs to stop killing civilians and aid workers today. It needs to start the long journey to peace today.â
“You are going to be the proud owner of 25 million people,….You will own all their hopes, aspirations, and problems. You’ll own it all.”
Israel must be shown how they âownâ the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Theyâve pulverized the buildings. Theyâve killed most of the now-dead civilians. Theyâve prevented food and medical assistance from reaching the sick and the starving. Therefore, they should own the humanitarian solution starting immediately.
BTW, think of all the suffering weâve heard about in Gaza. Now recall just how little of it you have actually seen via western media. Many of the same videos run day after day on US media. Why? Because Israel has made it a priority to conduct the war largely beyond the sight of Western cameras, beyond the scrutiny of the press.
If we knew more and saw more, we might be even more horrified.
The Israeli military has dismissed two officers and reprimanded three others for their role in the WCK strikes, saying they had mishandled critical information and breached the armyâs Rules of Engagement (ROE). The Guardian reports that the IDFâs ROE are classified, but reporting by the Israeli media and human rights organizations suggests an exceptionally high tolerance level for civilian casualties.
In the current war, observers suggest, ROE rules that were already permissive in previous conflicts in Gaza have been loosened further, as evidenced by the number of civilian casualties in high-profile strikes. America faces a serious moral dilemma and Wrongo has been feeling it for a while. Wrongo still thinks itâs possible to be committed to Israel and to its right to defend itself. But at the same time we need to be highly critical of the Israeli response in Gaza.
There are times when a friend, a family member or a neighbor asks you to help them solve a problem. You go along, thinking that youâll be able to help out, only to find youâre deeply involved in something that has become either a reputation killer or possibly, something life-threatening.
And this is where America sits with Israel in their war with Hamas. Our friend has caused us to get badly stuck in something awful. And itâs become very difficult to see how to get our partner to stop the bombing, killing and starving.
Wrongo suspects there have been more than a few final straws among Israelâs friends in recent months, since Israel seems oblivious to the damage theyâre doing. It has been gut wrenching to watch America go from responsible support for Israel on 10/7 to becoming likely complicit in Israel’s crimes against humanity in Gaza. We must change course now.
Biden needs to follow through on his message to Netanyahu.
Itâs Saturday, so itâs now time for our Saturday Soother, where we attempt to pull back from the fire hose of news and opinion and grab a few minutes of calm. On the Fields of Wrong this weekend, weâve seen snow, an earthquake and on Monday, weâll witness a solar eclipse. Weâre certainly operating in interesting times.
As the Wrong family takes off for a few days, letâs listen to a road song of sorts, âThe Drinking Gourdâ, a song of the open road. It was originally used by Underground Railroad operatives to encode escape instructions. In the1950s and 1960s, it played a role in the Civil Rights and folk revival movements. Here is the folk singer Eric Bibb performing the song for the television series, âGod’s Greatest Hitsâ, airing in Canada on VisionTV:
St. Ann’s Church and Shrine, Polonia, Buffalo NY, abandoned in 2012Â – March 2024 photo by Abandoned and beyond Buffalo. It was recently purchased by a group of Muslims aiming to transform it into a refuge.
â…It has been 459 days since the US Congress passed legislation to support Ukraine. Russia, supported by arms from Iran and North Korea, is now slowly advancing…and sending scores of missiles and drones at cities throughout Ukraine. Russia has…destroyed one major Ukrainian hydroelectrical facility, and…is targeting two others. The aim is to bring down the Ukrainian electricity grid.
The US Congress is once again in recess. Although sizable majorities of Americans and their elected representatives want to support Ukraine, legislation has been blocked by the Putinist wing of the House of Representatives.â
This means that the House wonât address funding for Kyiv until mid-April at the earliest. It would be difficult to state the problem more succinctly or better than Snyder does. Where have the Biden administration and the US House been for the past 460+ days?
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) was on âMeet the Pressâ yesterday. Bacon favors some support for Ukraine and highlighted his partnership with Reps. Jared Golden, (D-ME), Brian Fitzpatrick, (R-PA), and Ed Case, (D-HI) on a Ukraine aid bill:
“We put a bill together that focuses on military aid â a $66 billion bill that provides military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan….If we do this bill, and I think we will, there’s enough support in the House to get this done. And â and I want to make sure that we have support in the Senate…”
It’s possible that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) could face a vote to oust him if he moves to pass Ukraine aid in the House. Before the House left for its two-week vacation Marjorie Taylor-Greene, (R-GA), submitted a motion to vacate, which could lead to a House vote to oust Johnson. Since Greene did not file the motion as privileged, the vote can happen at an indefinite point in the future. Shortly after Greene filed the motion, she said: (parenthesis by Wrongo)
âHe (Johnson) should not bring funding for Ukraine to the floor…â
The US has been in a stalemate on resupplying weapons to Ukraine for six months. Zelenskyy told CBS News that Ukraine’s forces had managed to hold off Russian advances through the worst of the winter months:
“We have stabilized the situation. It is better than it used to be two or three months ago when we had a big deficit of artillery ammunition, different kinds of weapons….We totally didn’t see the big, huge counteroffensive from Russia… They didn’t have success.”
CBS said that Zelenskyy acknowledged that the invading Russian troops and their seemingly endless supply of missiles and shells is having a negative effect, that they’re not going to be able to defend against another major Russian offensive expected in the coming months. That, he said, was expected around the end of May or in June.
More: (parenthesis and emphasis by Wrongo)
âHe (Zelenskyy) said what’s needed most are American Patriot missile defense systems, and more artillery…he said the nature of the funding dedicated by the American government to help Ukraine must be put into perspective.â
He then made the point that the vast majority of the funds committed to Ukraine go to defense contractors in the US:
“Let’s be honest, the money, which is allocated by the Congress, by the administration, in the majority of cases….at least more than 75% â stays in the US. This ammunition is coming to us, but the production is taking place there, and the money stays in the US…â
Whatâs happened to Americans? Two years ago every town in the US was sponsoring Ukrainian families. Zelenskyy spoke to the US Congress and received standing ovations. Their war of necessity with Russia dominated the evening news.
Ukraine looked like a winner in the fall of 2023, so America was all in, but that died in the standoff in the spring of 2024. America no longer has the willingness or ability to think through complex problems like Ukraine vs. Russia, a problem that may take several more years to solve. So we kick Ukraine to the side of the road and instead talk about Princess Kate and her cancer diagnosis or about Dodgers pitcher Shohei Ohtani, his awesome huge contract and his possible connection to gambling.
You know, the easy stuff that doesnât make your hair hurt.
We need to keep Ukraine in the forefront of our thinking. We need to realize that Russia sees the eastern NATO countries on their border like potato chips. And you canât expect Russia to eat just one.
America has two âfar enemiesâ (as opposed to ânear enemiesâ). Our far enemies are Russia and China. Rather than allow them time to become near enemies, we need to deal with them where they are today. This means arming Ukraine with the best air defense systems we have and with longer range missiles that can strike at Russiaâs oil, shipping and manufacturing facilities.
Its long past time for the US Congressâ wakeup call! Your dithering may cost Europe and America far more than you think.
To help you wake up, watch and listen to the late Kirsty MacColl perform her hit âWalking Down Madisonâ, from her 1991 album Electric Landlady. The backup group includes Johnny Marr (The Smiths) on guitar and rapping by Aniff Akinola. Wrongo has loved this song since he first heard it 33 years ago. The idea that you’re never far from having reality whack you in the face has always appealed
Sample Lyrics:
From an uptown apartment
To a knife on the A train
It’s not that far
From the sharks in the penthouse
To the rats in the basement
It’s not that far
To the bag lady frozen asleep on the church steps
It’s not that far
Sorry that we couldnât publish a Saturday Soother yesterday, Wrongo, his two sons, granddaughter and son-in-law went to Barclayâs Center in Brooklyn NY to watch first round games in the NCAA basketball tournament. Hereâs a pic from the nosebleed section:
Turning to cartoons, the past week had an overabundance of thoughts about Trumpâs inability to find $500 million to bond the appeal of his fraud conviction. Weâll only show a few. On to cartoons.
Trumpâs legal woes impact the GOPâs funds raising:
Trump thinks he may be facing the inevitable:
The trials have kept his followers in the herd:
Rep. James Comer ends Biden impeachment:
Trumpyâs buddy Vladdy had a better week. Russian citizens? Not so much:
Welcome to a week that included TikTok, March Madness and St. Patrickâs Day!
The House overwhelmingly passed legislation to ban TikTok:
But will it ever become law?
Trump said the quiet part out loud:
Insulin remains under threat:
Yes, Big pharma is suing the Biden administration for making insulin affordable. They say his actions are âunconstitutionalâ. Itâs important to remember that they didnât invent insulin and it is cheap to make.
The GOPâs double standard on documents:
The mystery surrounding Princess Kate isnât going away:
Boeing is so badly broken itâs hard to see how it recovers:
Saguaros and poppies, Catalina SP, Tucson, AZ – March 2024 photo by Paul J Van Helden
Youâve all heard and read about Bidenâs State of the Union (SOTA) speech last Thursday. But maybe youâre unaware of the White House strategy for the speech. This was the first SOTA in history to be streamed live on Instagram, in addition to a primary stream on YouTube. Playbook reported that the 9 pm and10 pm hours were the best periods of grassroots fundraising for Biden since the Presidentâs campaign launch.
The White House Office of Digital Strategy also held several events to brief and engage digital creators and media brands around the SOTA. There was a creator watch party in the White House State Dining Room during the speech. Given the declining reach of legacy media, these creator engagement strategies are important.
Trump had planned to comment on Bidenâs speech in real time on his Truth Social platform but it went down for the first part of the SOTA. It took over an hour to read what he had to say. When the site came back, we learned that Trump had pretty much just been ranting about Bidenâs coughing and warning people not to shake his hand because it had germs.
As an aside, Trump has been a germophobe forever. A casual friend knew him quite well in the 1980âs. Then Trump was a young real estate entrepreneur wanting to get into a fancy Westchester, NY country club. My friendâs husband was also in the real estate business, and Trumpâs father Fred prevailed on him to get the Donald into their club. That led to multiple weekends where Trump would take a limo to Westchester to play golf with my friendâs husband and several buddies, all of whom were club members.
It turned out that Trump was a good golfer, so the men were ok with playing with him, except for the obvious cheating on the course. But after each round, the group would adjourn to one of the membersâ homes for a potluck, and there Trumpâs germophobe flag would fly. He wouldnât shake hands, and he washed his hands often. He clearly preferred going through the buffet line first, to the extent that if he couldn’t he wouldnât eat.
Apparently, Trump has done a lot to overcome his germ fears but it all came back when Biden didn’t wash his hands before leaving the podium.
A little on Bidenâs strategy: Biden isnât banking on turning out 100% of Democratic voters. Heâs not necessarily counting on low-propensity voters who normally have very little interest in politics. His goal is for Trump to continue to be himself, while Biden, in addition to getting high Democratic turnout, will peel off about 10% of self-identified Republican voters (up from 8% in 2020) and then win Independents. Wrongo has stated previously that heâs certain that Trump will not get near the same number of votes he got in 2020.
Next up, the Biden campaign is rolling out a $30 million ad buy and many more campaign travel stops.
What to say about the rebuttal speech? Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) spoke from her kitchen table. By the end of the evening, there seemed to be less talk about her vice presidential chances than about who might play her on Saturday Night Liveâs cold open.
Letâs turn our attention to gasoline consumption in the US. Wolf Richter reports that for 2023, gasoline consumption was where it had been 20 years ago, even though miles driven set a new record. This was largely due to more efficient internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and the shift to electric vehicles (EVs). Wolf provided two handy charts:
Gasoline consumption in the US in terms of product supplied to gas stations rose by 1.5% in 2023, to 376 million gallons per day. But that was still down by 3.9% from 2019. Itâs finally back where it was in 2003, (20 years ago).
The second chart above, âper-capita gasoline consumptionâ makes whatâs going on clearer. The US population has grown over the past 20 years, but while gasoline consumption has been flat, per-capita gasoline consumption has plunged by 15% from 2003 and by 21% from 1978.
Further, average fuel economy has increased by 42% over the past 20 years, along with average horsepower, because of technical innovations that make todayâs ICE vehicles more powerful and more economical than ever before. From Wolf:
“Since 1975, fuel economy for highway driving doubled from 14.6 mpg to nearly 30 mpg in 2023!”
Where will gas consumption go from here? Biden says we should be at zero emissions by 2050. How will we replace the tax receipts from federal and state gas taxes?
Enough. Letâs punt on the election and on the debate over EV cars. Itâs time for our Saturday Soother, when we take a break from the assault on our consciousness by media and social media, and instead, focus on calming ourselves before launching into another week of disinformation.
Here at the Mansion of Wrong, weâre planning for projects on the Fields of Wrong, preparing for a meeting with our yard guys. Weâve finally convinced them that because of global warming, yard work must begin in early March rather than in early April.
To help you get centered on this Oscars weekend, grab a seat by a big window, then watch and listen to famed conductor Michael Tilson Thomas lead the USAâs National Youth Orchestra in a 2018 performance of Aaron Coplandâs âHoe-Downâ from his ballet âRodeoâ in Beijing:
Bee in a Fishhook Cactus bloom, Anza Borrego SP, CA – February 2024 photo by Paulette Donnellon
âI worry that no matter how cynical I get, itâs never enough…â â Lily Tomlin
There are abundant reasons for cynicism today. First, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Â will step down as Senate minority leader, three years ahead of his retirement from the Senate. McConnell said the recent death of his wifeâs sister reminded him of his mortality, which encouraged him to step down and take a seat in the back. But for an 82 year-old man who is in iffy health, McConnell may not want to keep sweeping up after the growing number of rogue elephants in the Senate any more.
Wrongo is glad heâs finally going because heâs an awful human being. However, after the Republicans in the Senate replace him, Wrongo is certain to miss the good old days when McConnell was in charge, because whoever follows him will be much worse.
A short look back on Mitchâs tenure: He made it his mission to ensure that nothing would get done under Obama, even if it meant the country went into a default. McConnell denied Obama the chance to fill a Supreme Court seat, holding it open for Trump. If it wasnât for Mitch’s partisan warfare, Trump wouldnât have appointed three right wingers to the current Supreme Court; Roe v. Wade would still be the law of the land.
McConnell fundamentally changed the way the Senate works. Now we all know that if something passes the Senate it needs 60 votes. Mitch McConnell made votes for Cloture (the procedure by which debate is ended and an immediate vote is taken on the matter under discussion) a huge thing. Under McConnellâs leadership, cloture votes went from a handful each term to hundreds.
McConnell will be remembered for his cowardly votes in two Trump impeachment trials. His failure to lead the Senate to a Trump conviction for the Jan. 6 insurrection may well have doomed our democracy. We remember him for his brazen/unprofessional treatment of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (“…nevertheless, she persisted…”). If it hadn’t been for John McCain, Mitch would have dismantled the ACA, leaving millions of Americans without health insurance today.
His legacy will be his success in his decades-long work of damaging America:
Todayâs second reason for cynicism is the Supreme Courtâs decision to take up the question of whether Trump enjoys total Presidential immunity for his actions in the January 6th case. Their decision sent a shockwave through the nation, dismaying Democrats and any American who understands the implications of the delay. Thanks to a corrupt Supreme Court, the most important of Trumpâs four (four!) criminal trials may not be finished before Americans cast their ballots in November.
âThe Court handed…Trump two gifts last night: time and comfort….The gift of time was so deliberate that it can only serve as one more blow to the Supreme Courtâs battered reputation. The Court…should move with dispatch in vital cases….If the immunity case isnât of the most critical urgency and consequence, what is? Take it as given that the Supreme Court of 2024 is the most intensely political of our lifetimes….â
The Courtâs surprise grant of review was a gut punch for many Democrats. They set the oral argument for April 22, 2024. It is doubtful that an opinion will be issued before June 2024. So, there is little chance that Trump will be on trial in the federal election interference or defense secrets cases before the November election.
There is no doubt that the Court was aware that theyâve delayed the Jan. 6 trial at least four months, past the point at which Trump will be the Republican Partyâs nominee. That time frame is traditionally when the Department of Justice (DOJ) refuses to pursue cases against presidential candidates. Will Attorney General Garland have the cojones to let the case proceed, or will he tell Special Counsel Smith to pause it?
In some ways, this changes nothing. Wrongo has said that the courts were never going to derail Trumpâs candidacy before November. We, the American people, remain in charge of our destiny, and thereby, Trump’s eventual accountability. Our remedy lies in defeating Trump in November. If that happens, Trump will be convicted. There is no cavalry coming. There is no miracle solution.
If we fail to do so, when Trump is again president, he will use the DOJ to end his federal criminal prosecutions.
It was clear that no conviction of Trump (including appeals) for Jan. 6 or the secret documents cases could possibly be final before the November election. A final verdict wouldnât be achieved before the election, so obsessing over when any Trump trial begins is pointless.
Those who hoped the legal system would stop Trump are disappointed. As is anyone who hoped McConnellâs Senate would stop Trump in February 2021. As are those who hoped Garlandâs DOJ would move (quickly) to hold him accountable in 2021 and 2022.
Once again the US Supreme Court has put its thumb on the scales of justice to preserve Republican political dominance. We all recall Bush vs. Gore where an earlier version of a Right-wing Supreme Court gave the 2000 presidential election to GW Bush. Back then, everyone said it was a âone-offâ intervention in the democratic process. But here we are, 24 years later with another one-off.
To pull together these two stories, Mitch McConnell didn’t steal the Supreme Court for nothing,
Wrongo thinks that the many elite lawyer pundits are starting to realize that maybe, just maybe, a majority of the justices on the Supreme Court are robe-wearing political hacks doing whatever they can to perpetuate Republican Party policy.
There remains only one guardrail left to check the Conservative goal of restoring rich, white-Christian hegemony: Voters.
âThe House Republicans have effectively turned the Ukraine war into a free-for-all. Without US arms assistance, thereâs a substantial risk that this war could easily escalate, with the US having only a limited voice in both strategy and tactics.â
The next day, as if on schedule, France chimed in. From Politico:
âFrench President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that sending Western troops to Ukraine should not be ruled out….There is no consensus today to send ground troops officially but … nothing is ruled out… We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war.”
This kabuki took place during a crisis meeting in support of Ukraine that was attended by heads of European states, including German Chancellor Scholz, and top government officials like UK Foreign Secretary Cameron. Ukraineâs president Zelensky attended the meeting by video link.
The subject was first raised publicly by Slovak Prime Minister Fico, who said a ârestricted documentâ circulated prior to the summit had implied that a number of NATO and EU member states were considering sending troops to Ukraine on a bilateral basis.
The too-clever part is âon a bilateral basisâ. Thatâs a mealy-mouth way of saying that NATO wouldnât be supplying the troops, just the individual NATO members.
Macronâs suggestion has started a free-for-all among the NATO members about possibly sending troops to Ukraine. As Wrongo said, the inability of House Republicans to mount a legislative program is clearly affecting both Ukraine and NATO.
Macronâs comments prompted a hawkish response from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov:
âIn this case, we need to talk not about the likelihood, but about the inevitability of a conflict….These countries must also assess and be aware of this, asking themselves whether this is in their interests, as well as the interests of the citizens of their countries.â
Russia implies that any Western troop deployment in Ukraine would trigger a direct conflict between Moscow and the NATO military alliance.
That naturally sent European leaders scrambling to backtrack: A NATO official told CNN the alliance had âno plansâ to deploy combat troops in Ukraine. And German Chancellor Scholzâimmediately said that European leaders unanimously rejected sending troops to fight in Ukraine against Russia. He was backed up by NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg (the same fellow who gave “permission” to Ukraine to bomb inside Russia using NATOâs soon-to-be delivered F-16s).
The US has always told NATO that it would be foolish to send NATO troops to Ukraine. But what leverage does the US have if it isnât supplying its share of weapons and ammo right now when theyâre most needed? The inaction by House Republicans was the precipitating reason for the hastily called European summit in the first place.
âOne of the outcomes of the EU meeting was support for sourcing more ammunition from outside of NATO. President Zelensky offered a sharp reminder that the EU had massively undershot promises on ammunition deliveries. He underlined the EU’s failure to deliver 1 million shells by March:
“Of the million shells promised to us by the European Union, not 50% arrived, but 30%….
This includes practically everything, ranging from air defense missiles to howitzer shells.
As a possible solution, Czech Prime Minister Fiala said he received “big support” at the talks from European partners for his proposal to source shells from outside the EU for Kyiv. The Czech Republic is leading a campaign to raise âŹ1.4 billion to pay for ammunition for Ukraine, in compensation both for the stalled US aid package and delays in EU deliveries.
This means that buying exclusively within the EU simply isnât realistic. Region-wide reductions in defense spending following the end of the Cold War led to arms manufacturers reducing their capacity to make such weapons. And rebuilding the industry wonât happen overnight.
Widening out the view, Macron appears to be attempting again to assert himself as the leader of a united Europe, just as Europe braces for the possibility of a) no weapons funding from the Biden administration, or b) Trump winning a second term.
Given Trumpâs antipathy toward NATO and transactional view toward alliances, Macron and others have stressed that the burden must fall to Europe to protect from future Russian aggression.
Macron also said he was abandoning his opposition to buying arms for Ukraine from outside the EU. This potential program is known in the EU as âstrategic autonomyâ, policies aimed at making Europe less reliant on the US.
These unilateral actions by Europe signal two ideas. First, that there is no Plan B for supporting Ukraine beyond sending them more weapons, and advanced weapons that have the capability to strike inside Russia. Striking inside Russia is key to Ukraine having a stronger position in any negotiated end to the War, but NATO fears Russiaâs retaliation if longer range weapons are supplied to Ukraine, so they will come slowly, if at all.
Second, Europe believes as of now that Ukraine is losing. Wrongo heard on the PBS NewsHour that the best likely outcome in 2024 is for a Ukraine holding action followed by another offensive in 2025, even though Ukraineâs 2023 offensive produced very little. In this view sending more weapons to Ukraine only seems to buy time in 2024.
The alternative view is that Russia is outproducing the West in artillery shells and ammunition. And think about the Russia, China, Iran axis that Wrongo mentioned last week: Neither China or Iran will willingly let Russia lose a war, because they know whoâll be next.
Another way to think about this: Trump weakened NATO during his presidency. Biden was able to rebuild Americaâs credibility with NATO, helped enormously by Putinâs invasion of Ukraine. Since then, NATO has expanded, adding two new countries to the membership and by stepping up with weapons and financial support for Ukraine. Now, in the waning months of Bidenâs first term, Republicans have cracked NATO again with their unwillingness to fund the Ukraine War.
The failure of the US Congress to provide aid to Ukraine in a timely manner is a massive rupture of the USâs standing both with NATO and with global democracies that implicitly count on the US to support them if shit ever hits the fan in their region. The bottom line is that the US is no longer a trusted ally or friend.
Jens Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian Prime Minister and now Secretary General of NATO reacted to the US failure to deliver by announcing he is giving Ukraine “permission” to use its soon to be delivered F-16s to launch attacks inside Russia:
âStoltenberg believes that the death of Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny and the first Russian gains on the battlefield in months should help focus the attention of NATO and its allies on the urgent need to support Ukraine.â
According to Stoltenberg, it will be up to each ally to decide whether to deliver F-16s to Ukraine, and each have different policies. But he said at the same time, the war in Ukraine is a war of aggression and Ukraine has the right to self-defense, including striking legitimate Russian military targets outside Ukraine.
The criticism of this is that it could lead NATO into a European war that might well include nuclear weapons. Above all, NATO is a defensive, not an offensive, alliance. Finally, there are no provisions in the NATO Treaty authorizing offensive, outside-the-NATO boundary operations.
The House Republicans have effectively turned the Ukraine war into a free-for-all. Without US arms assistance, thereâs a substantial risk that this war could easily escalate, with the US having only a limited voice in both strategy and tactics. On to cartoons.
Republicans have reduced the US to hot air:
Putinâs now hoping for a Ukraine surrender:
Moon landing dredges up old theories:
Russiaâs Congressional dupes fail to see the problem:
IVF ruling has consequences:
There’s a sucker born every minute in Trump world. The shoes are pre-order only; just another Don-con: :
There’s a sucker born every minute in Trump world. The shoes are pre-order only; just another Don-con: :