The Wrongologist

What’s Wrong Today

The Wrongologist woke up this am to hear that the Obama administration is sending $25 million of “non-lethal” goods to the Libyan rebels. And France, England and Italy are sending military advisors to help the rebels with logistics, organization. We apparently have also had CIA advisors on the ground in-country for a few weeks. Does this sound familiar to anyone other than The Wrongologist?  

In March, I said we should back the President’s play unless and until we saw mission creep that fundamentally changed the original intent to protect innocent civilians from death at the hand of its own government. The original intent was flawed. The Obama administration indicated from the start that it wanted Gaddafi out of power and thus created confusion about the purpose and end state of the mission from day one as well.

Today we can say that the rebels will not win a civil war simply with NATO air cover. They need modern arms, ammo, training and infrastructure support. Many of us were concerned about arming the rebels with modern weapons because we didn’t know who or what groups we would be supporting. (Didn’t we learn THAT in Afghanistan?) Now, the ground war is at best a stalemate, devolving to a war of attrition which is likely to be won by Gaddafi.

The strategic response Western Europe is now embracing is Regime Change by Proxy. Not Humanitarian support, not “No Fly Zone”, not assist the rebels with advisors, it is regime change with no boots on the ground or Regime Change by Proxy. The Obama administration has attempted to distinguish between helping the rebels and Regime Change by Proxy, but it is a distinction without a difference.

And the mission morphs at the expense of the moral high ground President Obama articulated a month ago.

So What’s Wrong?

We won’t get to an End State called Regime Change without civil war. We are likely to see as many die in civil war as would die at Gaddafi’s hands without our help. So, now an end state the American peoplee didn’t support may destroy the goal we did support. That’s simply wrong.

The Wrongologist said in March that the Obama doctrine is:  What Would the French Do? Bernard Henri Levi, a French philosopher admired by the Wrongologist for his writings on US affairs and culture, has been the key intellectual force behind France’s commitment to Libya. It has been reported that before the UN Resolution got any traction, Levy phoned President Sarkozy from Benghazi to tell him that French flags were flying everywhere. Levy told Sarkozy that if he allowed a bloodbath in Libya, the blood would stain the French flag. That really affected Sarkozy and moved him to unilaterally grant diplomatic recognition to the Libyan rebels and formally receive their representatives at the Elysée (a meeting also attended by Bernard-Henri Levy).

Levy has now said that Regime Change is the only answer to the current stalemate. This idea is gaining support in other European capitals (but not in Bonn). In the past, President Obama has said that the US should be against Regime Change as an instrument of US policy. He was right in saying that.

What about actively supporting Regime Change in Libya is in our National Interest? It would be simply wrong for the US to embrace Regime Change by Proxy in Libya now.