The third and final
debate between Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney is next Monday. It will primarily
address foreign policy, so letâs take a quick look at what the individual
candidates are likely to pitch to us.
Background
The defining
assumption of late 20th century presidents was that American power
was so great, with no obvious rivals on the horizon; that the world stood on
the eve of another American Century. This assumption ended for most practical
purposes with 9/11, two wars in the Middle East and the financial crash of
2008. Barack Obama is our first president to face a different reality.
The growing budget deficit, the decline of real
income of the middle class, the intractable unemployment, the continuing trade
deficit and two inconclusive wars have all left us less confident about our
sense of dominance in the world.
How,
if and when we are able to fix our domestic problems will greatly influence
what the role of government is in our society and what the role of the US can
be globally.
It is possible that, even with a low growth economy, the US can remain the worldâs
only superpower, at least until the point that China matches our economic might.
But we are now in a time of uncertainty and introspection regarding our role in
managing the world. Not surprisingly, there are also contrasts between Obama
and Romney on our foreign policy.
China,
Russia, Iran, Syria, Israel and Palestine, the Arab Spring, the role of our military,
how we project soft power in East Asia and Africa are the top of mind
problems/opportunities that the next president will face.
It is unclear how either candidate would
actually deal with any of these issues, since political debate is so deeply
partisan and polarized. Contending positions and narratives occupy parallel universes.
How they talk about foreign policy on Monday may be very different from how
they practice a foreign policy once in power.
The
lynchpins of US foreign policy have always been military strength and economic
strength, wrapped up in a sense of American Exceptionalism: Because we led
the world with our sheer wealth and dynamism, we were the benchmark of modernity
for the rest of the world. Now with aging infrastructure, an antiquated rail
network, inadequate seaports, a ground-control system for air travel that dates
to the 1950âs and only the vague hope that 98% of the US will have broadband Internet
by 2015, that is behind us.
Our
#1 challenge is to rebuild our economy. Without that, we cannot maintain
either of the two lynchpins described above. We need the candidates to speak to how foreign policy fits into the mission
of rebuilding the economy, since it canât be that the economy is
subordinate to our global ambitions.
What Will We Hear on Monday?
We will hear on Monday night that âthe world is a dangerous placeâ
and that âthe terrorist threat is
worse now than it was before 9/11â. Just as we always do a few weeks
before a presidential election.
We will hear that âIf we donât lead, others willâ and âIâm not ashamed of American powerâ. And we shouldnât be
ashamed of our power.
We
will hear a litany of both real and imagined distinctions without differences by both
candidates, even though their broad policy outlines are similar.
Romney favors a more muscular,
military-forward approach. Obama is more pragmatic, with a nuanced view of alliances
and ideals, focusing on how to catalyze international action in support of
policy goals.
Over
the next decade, the fundamental choice we must make is how much military strength
we will keep in the face of the urgent need to refurbish our economy.
Reagan tried âguns and butterâ. George W.
Bush tried âtax cuts and gunsâ. Neither created a reduced deficit.
We need to transform our education system
and our infrastructure or be eclipsed
by China and the rest of the BRIC countries. This will take lower
military spending, rigidly controlled health care costs, and higher taxes.
So,
as far as our foreign policy goes, the real questions for the candidates to answer
are:
- How
do we redefine power in a world in which American military and economic supremacy
are ratcheting down?
- Can
we continue our messianic foreign policy? At what price?
- Can
we continue to project a muscular military globally? At what price?
Letâs
see if any of these are discussed on Monday. But, donât count on it.
