The Wrongologist

What’s
Wrong Today:

Thanks to
French President Francois Hollande who felt the need to step in to prevent the
collapse of Mali, and a calamitous hostage rescue operation by Algerian forces
that resulted in the deaths of 37, America has discovered Mali. 

Mali, the
largest country in West Africa, is involved in a civil war in which government
troops, along with a Western coalition led by the French, are battling well-armed
ethnic Tuaregs and the AL-Qaeda-affiliated Ansaruldin group.

Once known
as French Sudan, Mali is one of France’s main allies in sub-Saharan Africa. Paris
fears that the chaos might spill out to neighboring states, drastically
affecting regional and international stability and peace. But France is also concerned
the spread will put its influence in this part of the world under serious
threat.

Prior to
the coup last year, Mali looked like a model democracy for the rest of Western
Africa. It has been in turmoil since, as Tuareg rebels took advantage of the
disarray to push further south, capturing half of the country with the help of
Islamic militants. Mali is no stranger to rebellions – this is the fourth led
by the Tuareg nomads of the north since Mali’s independence from France in 1960. The last
ended only in 2008.

Reuters reports that Tuareg forces were helped by
an influx of modern arms after the 2011 conflict in Libya. Tuaregs joined forces with Islamist groups, some with links to AL-Qaeda and they seized
control of the north of
Mali in
2012.

(Above: A manual for installing a laser
sight on a gun, found in the courtyard of a local resident’s home in Diabaly,
Mali and believed to belong to Islamist rebels, on Jan. 23, 2013. Photo by
REUTERS)

Al-Qaeda was
looking for a safe haven in a hostile environment, especially at the end of the
Libyan war. Later, the Islamists overthrew the Tuaregs and installed Shariah
law in the area.   

The
fighting in the north and the establishment of Shariah forced thousands to flee
their homes. The New
York Times
reports that before
the recent French intervention in Mali began, 412,000 people had already left
their homes in the country’s north, fleeing torture,
summary executions, recruitment of child soldiers and sexual violence against
women at the hands of fundamentalist militants.

The Tuareg
have named their movement the MNLA, or National Movement for the Liberation of
Azawad, the name the rebels give to the homeland they would like to carve out
of three regions in Mali’s north.

The
movement has a slick PR machine, a regularly updated website and easily
contactable Europe-based spokesmen. An
unanswered question is: Who finances these people?

Washington
has tried to bolster Mali’s army over the years, providing $17 million in
military aid in the last year to equip and train forces in everything from
desert warfare to winning hearts and minds. European nations have also offered help.

France,
the US and Mali’s insurgents:

The US says that it is
sitting out direct confrontation with the
Mali terrorists. At least, for now. Danger Room reports that as France’s war in Mali stretches into its twelfth day, the US
Air Force has flown a total of five sorties to airlift some 80 French personnel
and 124 tons of equipment.

It remains to be seen
if the US will keep its involvement in Mali limited. The US military, particularly the special-operations
community, might be strained from
over a decade of war.

If the US does limit
its involvement in what the Pentagon calls an “international effort” against
groups aligned with al-Qaida, it would buck its own recent trend in proliferating shadow wars to far-flung places whenever a group
calling itself an al-Qaida offshoot shows up.

It is important to
note that the Pentagon wasn’t speaking about possible CIA involvement in
Mali; it’s worth noting that the CIA has placed operatives on the ground in places where the US has publicly
stated it wouldn’t send ground troops.

In
addition, the Washington Post reported last June that a US
special forces base was established in Burkina Faso (bordering Mali on the
southeast)in 2007 and the same Post article reported that the Pentagon had
spent $8.1 million enhancing a Forward Operating Base (including airstrip) in Mauritania(bordering
Mali on the west).

There are
negotiations between the Pentagon and Algeria (bordering Mali on the north) for
basing rights.

(Yellow shaded areas above indicate
Islamist controlled areas)

Any claims that the US will sit this one
out are preposterous.

From the New York Times yesterday:

Paris
lacks the airlift capacity to haul all the hardware bound for Africa. Early on,
Paris appealed for help from allied nations. Canada and the UK were the first
to offer up C-17 transport planes and the US sent five of its C-17s
over the weekend. The C-17 is big enough to carry any French fighting vehicle.

As Paris
escalates its involvement in Mali with heavier and more powerful weaponry, we
are asked to believe it does so
without the guarantee that if the battle turns against the French, allied
nations will rush to the rescue.

Does
any of this sound familiar?

Another NATO
member is attempting to put down another insurgency. Let’s guess: the Malian pro-western
“democracy”, with signed contracts with multinational mineral and energy
companies, (Mali has gold, uranium, phosphates, limestone and oil) begs for help while generally
ignoring the plight of the financially, culturally, and ethnically estranged
northern populace.

The Tuareg
have risen up for a 5th time, organized under an Islamist banner
loosely associated with terrorism, and the French have gone in to protect their
interests. Sounds like Vietnam, or any number of incidents of western adventure
in the third world.

You can be
damn sure the French wouldn’t get involved unless there was significant expectation
of material and strategic backup by other NATO members, and that wouldn’t be
Turkey.

We need
answers:
What are the insurgents’ motivations? Where do they get their logistical
support and their money? Why does the local population support them?

Ordinary
people don’t attack their own government for no reason, do they?

So, Mr.
Obama, get us some answers, let’s check out the WHOLE picture this time before
we jump in to the shit.  

Recently,
a Director of National Intelligence gave estimates of al-Qaida’s
“membership” at around 4,000. How is it that 4,000 mostly
semi-literate tribesmen could possibly represent such a grave
“threat” to the US and/or the West?

NO ONE in the US Government or
military is claiming that there are large numbers of “terrorists”
anywhere. Yet al-Qaida is cited as a threat to take over Libya and Somalia,
maybe Syria, threaten Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, pose a serious problem in Afghanistan,
and now be poised to take over Mali…and then, wow, threaten all of Africa and
“the West.”

With 4,000 men – really?  Are we being lied to? Are the numbers really much
larger?

We didn’t learn our lessons in
Vietnam or Iraq or Afghanistan. Now we may be preparing to do the same thing in
Mali – because this time, the Domino Theory is real, my
friend.

The Zombie Domino Theory. The Zombie
Global War on Terror.

Wait until Washington tells us: “It’s
a slam dunk, and this time we will win”.