The Wrongologist

What’s
Wrong Today:

From
today’s New York Times: President Karzai
announced Monday that the US would give Afghanistan its own fleet of aerial surveillance drones and would speed
up the handover of detainees held by American forces.

It was his
first public comment since returning from his visit to Washington. The obvious irony in the
prospective Afghan use of drones, when Karzai is
consistently outraged by America’s use of drones inside his country, was
completely lost on Karzai and the local press.

Mr. Karzai
said that the meetings in
Washington
had yielded nearly everything his country hoped for:

Apparently, Karzai and the Afghans got everything they wanted at the
Washington meetings. Moreover, they promised
nothing that they can’t walk away from once they get through their slow motion
picking of our pockets between now and the end of 2014.

President
Obama moved the deadline for the end of US combat missions in Afghanistan up
from July 2013 to “this spring.” After that, US troops will mainly be training
the Afghan National Army (ANA) or providing close air and logistical support.
The troop withdrawal will be accelerated. Mr. Obama reiterated that we needed
immunity for our troops if they are to stay past 2014.

President
Obama at their joint news conference: (context by the Wrongologist)

Here is
what Mr. Karzai got from Mr. Obama:

• Drones!
  Without those missile thingies (Yet)

• US
  forces will be withdrawn
  from villages,
  including the promised end to raids conducted by NATO forces in Afghan homes
  and villages

• The
  Obama administration pledged to leave 4 C-130s  and 20 helicopters for the Afghanistan
  National Army

• The
  US agreed to turn over to the Afghanistan
  government the Bagram prison and
  other prisons,
  where the US holds large numbers of captured Taliban. The prisoners will be
  given to the Karzai government.

Karzai
reversed himself by pledging to try to
get Afghans
to accept immunity from prosecution in Afghan courts for any remaining US
troops after December, 2014. But now that he is back in Afghanistan, we see how Karzai plans to
make his “push”:

It
seems virtually impossible that a Loya Jirga would vote to confer
immunity. It appears that by including the Loya Jirga in the decision process,
Karzai will be able to claim that he “pushed” for immunity but was unable to
get the vote for it.

That won’t
matter since Karzai will not be head of the Afghan government: He is term
limited out and there will be a general election before the end of 2014.

The immunity issue will surely be a major feature
of that election and since Karzai will not be head of state, the
new government could repudiate whatever commitments Karzai might have made.

So what did the
US get from Karzai’s Visit?  Permission to leave the classroom?

If Only. Any
analysis of the value that a continued American military commitment (in any
configuration) will have post the “Afghanization” of the conflict turns on our
current aim and purpose:  Mr. Obama
refers to our “mission”. To accomplish what?

• Initially
  it was to crush al-Qaeda and unseat the Taliban. We have succeeded in that
  “mission”.

• Beyond
  that, it was to ensure a stable, pro-Western regime in Afghanistan that would
  foreclose any future possibility that elements hostile to the United States
  could find sanctuary in Afghanistan. We have failed spectacularly at that.

So, what’s the point of continuing this
exercise?
For Mr. Obama, it is leaving with sufficient ambiguity to be able to spin it as
a favorable outcome. For the Pentagon and CIA, it is to continue prosecute the “war
on terror” as presently constituted: Drones, Drones, oh, and Drones. They also
avoid being stigmatized for having failed. Congress gets to perpetuate their make-believe
that we are masters of the planet.

Around
Thanksgiving, the Wrongologist posted:

 

Umm, wouldn’t that be Mr. Karzai and/or his
successor?

Our predicament is aggravated and insoluble, since we can‘t admit
to the grievous errors of judgment that led us into Iraq and then to escalate
the strategic commitment in Afghanistan.

We are
unable to do so because the impulses that produced both tragedies stem from a
wellspring deep in the American psyche, which is now embedded in our misplaced sense of American
Exceptionalism and of our place in the world.

As a
consequence, we are trapped in a situation where
we cannot succeed by any reasonable standard (much less in accordance with our
exalted self image) and cannot face squarely the reasons why.

Operating
without any political or intellectual accountability, we spare ourselves self
scrutiny but pay heavily through the repetition of miscalculations and self
contradictory policies. The total absence of either self-reflection or
accountability by our politicians or the Pentagon is breathtaking:

When you get things this wrong, you’re
supposed to ask yourself why and whether your assumptions or your strategy need
updating.

Why nobody
asks these pretty obvious questions, or
demands coherent answers is unacceptable – even in our dumbed down political
culture.