Will It Really Take 5 Years To Get Unemployment To 6%?

For those who may have questioned yesterday’s statement that it will take 5 years to
get to a 6+% unemployment rate, try it yourself with the Federal Reserve Bank
in Atlanta’s handy calculator.


You enter
your target unemployment rate (say, 6.25%) and how many months until you expect
your target unemployment rate to be achieved (60) and the calculator tells you
the average monthly change in payroll employment needed to achieve that target
rate.


You can
also change the Labor force participation rate and average monthly population
growth rate. I used 6.25% target rate achieved in 60 months at a labor force
participation rate of 63.8%. The result was 143.5k jobs/month, very close to
the average of 150k jobs/month we have averaged for the past 24 months.


Try it at: http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/



 

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