Afghanistan=Vietnam?

What’s
Wrong Today
:


From the News Hour:


It could be a
breakthrough moment in the longest conflict in American history.  US and Afghan peace negotiators are going to
sit down with the militants who’ve been battling American troops since 2001


After 12
years of war, senior US officials now say direct talks with the Taliban are
scheduled to begin within the next few days. The news came as President Obama
wound up a meeting with French President Hollande at the G-8 summit in Northern
Ireland.  The possibility exists that
direct talks with the Taliban may begin in the next few days.


A first
attempt of negotiations between the United States and the Taliban failed in
2012 ― the US did not fulfill an agreed upon prisoner release.


The US
military handed over “full responsibility” to the Afghan security
forces in Kabul on the same day as the Taliban announced the opening of an office in Doha, Qatar:


The Islamic Emirate of
Afghanistan…follows military and political actions and aims which are limited
to Afghanistan. The Islamic Emirate never wants to pose harms to
other countries from its soil, nor will it allow anyone to cause a threat to
the security of countries from the soil of Afghanistan.  Of course the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
considers it its religious and national duty to gain independence from the occupation…


The Islamic Emirate
was the name the Taliban called Afghanistan when they were last running the
country in 2001. The Taliban were also allowed to raise their white flag (video) over Doha. The statement from the Qatari
officials was telling: The Assistant Foreign Minister for Foreign
Affairs Ali bin Fahad al-Hajri, who was the chief guest at the opening of the
Political Office of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan yesterday:


In recent months, the State of Qatar
has exerted strenuous efforts to reach convergence of views between the US
government and the representatives of Taliban Afghanistan…


Neither the
Taliban nor Qatar made any mention of talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government
. Afghan president Karzai said
initially that he would send members of his Peace Council to Doha. But he also demanded an immediate move of the talks to
Afghanistan. The News
Hour quoted President Hamid Karzai:


Our high peace
council will travel to Qatar to discuss peace talks with the Taliban. We hope
that our brothers, the Taliban, also understand that the talks for the peace
progress will move to their own soil in Afghanistan soon to ensure the peace in
Afghanistan.


But moving the talks to Afghanistan does not to fit in the US or the Taliban’s
plan, and the Taliban doesn’t want to engage with the Karzai government. So Karzai has tried to torpedo them, leaving the talks in
danger.
From The
Guardian
:

The US was
scrambling to salvage a plan to open peace talks with the Taliban on Wednesday amid a
diplomatic row between Washington and the Afghan president Hamid Karzai over how the
process was announced.


Karzai, angry at the
US going behind his back, also stopped
discussions with the US about a the status of forces agreement (SOFA) that the
US requires if it is to keep troops in the country after 2014. Afghan Spokesman
Aimal Faizi:



In a special meeting chaired by
President Hamid Karzai, the president has decided to suspend talks about a
security pact with the US because of their inconsistent statements and actions
in regard to the peace process


Repeated
phone calls by John Kerry, the US secretary of state, appeared not to have
mollified Karzai, who accused the Obama administration of duplicity. Karzai was
apparently irritated by a press conference in Qatar at which the Taliban
effectively portrayed itself as a government in exile.


You mean
nobody bothered to inform Hamid Karzai that we would be meeting with the Taliban?
Is our foreign policy now being run by the Keystone Kops?  Or is our new Secretary of State, Mr. Skull
and Bones, simply not up to the job?


Poor Secretary
Skull and Bones: Putin keeps him waiting in Moscow for three hours and then gives
him five minutes and a stern lecture, and now Karzai won’t return Kerry’s
“repeated” phone calls and accuses the Obama administration of
duplicity.


Killer comment from Kate Clark:



The opening of the office was a
propaganda coup for the Taliban…At the moment, one would have to conclude
that the opening of this office has made the Taliban look strong, the Americans
desperate and President Karzai angry.


Commentary:


Does this strike anyone else as a reprise
of our negotiations to end the war in Vietnam
? Basically, the Afghanistan
talks will end up being three separate discussions about how to make peace between
the Afghan government and the Taliban, while allowing the US to make a graceful
exit. In 1968, Nixon called this Vietnamization.


With the Vietnam
negotiations which began in 1970, Henry Kissinger had to appease the South
Vietnamese government while negotiating with the North. It couldn’t be done. We
had a cease-fire in 1973. In 1975, we simply pulled out.

The North had won; they reunified
their country a year later. Game over.


So
after 12 years of fighting in Afghanistan to protect women and children from the brutal Taliban (which we
were led to believe was part of the task)
, the most powerful
military country on Earth has finally decided it’s better to talk to their
enemy than keep fighting them.


What
happened to: “We don’t negotiate with terrorists”?


What has
changed on the ground since 2008, when Obama could have negotiated an endgame similar to the
way the 2013 negotiation will play out?


1. Afghanistan was
further devastated.


2. There were 564
US military deaths
in Afghanistan at the end of 2008; There are 2145
through June 2013, an additional 1581 of our best young people died, and what did
we gain?


3. The US is
unilaterally negotiating with the Taliban without pretense of multilateralism
or concern for Afghan sovereignty.


4. We will leave
behind a civil war.


All of the above brought to you by
the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009.


If this is the end
game, then what did we spend 12 years fighting for? We did get Osama bin Laden,
in Pakistan. It’s possible we
taught the Taliban a lesson. It’s possible that we’ve exhausted both their resources
and their spirit.


It is also possible
that the Taliban has won.Their Doha office has the look of a government in exile.


Most US troops will soon
leave Afghanistan. After a discrete period of time, Congress will likely cut
off most of the money to the Afghan government. At that point, Afghanistan, like Vietnam, will have to
find a new internal equilibrium on its own.


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Terry McKenna

Either the secy/state did inform Karzai, or he said, no point, fuck ’em.

Re Obama v Nixon. At least Obama did bomb the equivalent of Cambodia.

Time to leave.