What’s
Wrong Today:
Sometimes
it is difficult not to be dismayed at Mr. Obama’s conduct of foreign policy.
Gore Vidal once described George W. Bush as “eerily inept.” If Mr.
Vidal alive today, he’d probably be trying to improve upon that epithet while
applying it to Mr. Obama.
The Obama administration was miffed by
Russia giving temporary asylum to Edward Snowden and has decided to
“punish” the Russian Federation and its President Vladimir Putin by cancelling the bilateral summit
with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow that was to coincide with the
Group of 20 meeting in St Petersburg in early September.
A New
York Times report on the Summit mentions several
“issues” the US has with Russia. These are the
Snowden case, the war on Syria, Iran’s (non?) existing nuclear weapons program
and nuclear disarmament. This
is getting ridiculous: The President wanted his spy Edward Snowden back. Snowden,
following Russian law, has been granted temporary asylum. The White House is “disappointed”.
But many Americans
are not wholly on the side of their government in the Snowden affair. Consider this
letter to the NYT editor by Mark Thomason of Clawson, MI:
are on the right side of all four issues, and we look like evil. In Syria, we
are backing al Qaeda, and the whole machine of the same Sunni fanatics we were
fighting in Iraq.
With
Snowden, we are exposed to crimes against a vast number of friends and allies
and our own people, exposed in lies we told and still tell (some under oath),
and we are begging people to believe we won’t torture or kill him while many
for good reason don’t believe us.
We
broke the ABM Treaty, and we are messing with nuclear arms deterrence and
safety from nuclear war. We made a deal with the Russians not to expand into
Eastern Europe if they dissolved the Warsaw Pact, and we broke the promises and
did exactly that and with ABM’s too.
We
are the ones who won’t talk to the reformist new guy [in Iran] to settle what
we say it a huge crisis, even as we say the basis of the crisis is not true,
that the Iranians do not have a nuclear weapons program, and the one guy we
demonized is going.
We
look like what we used to think of our enemies. This is sick.
The
NSA is the only government entity listening to the people on all of the issues mentioned
by Mr. Thomason; certainly it isn’t Mr. Obama.
Russia
is calibrating its support for Bashar al-Assad in Syria, despite our Saudi ally’s intelligence
chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan’s visit to Moscow during which, according to Reuters,
he apparently offered to buy Russian weapons as long as Russia backed off on
supporting al-Assad. However, Russia continues its support.
In
the Caucasus, Russia is improving its position: Georgia is way less
antagonistic towards Moscow. Russia influenced Azerbaijan’s decision to choose
the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) and immediately moved to solidify energy
cooperation between Azerbaijan’s SOCAR and Russia’s Rosneft. Both Georgia and
Azerbaijan are considered as proverbial “staunch” US allies.
In Europe, Germany and Russia have 80 Billion Euros in bi-lateral trade, but frosty political relations, while Russia
continues negotiations on natural gas deals with Italy, France and Poland. Russia is moving to secure long-term contracts with plenty of price
breaks and tax schemes.
In Central and Eastern Europe, Russia is buying scores of strategic
manufacturing, chemical and transport assets.
Then there’s the crucial Trans-Siberian gambit. Nowadays, the train line is all about heavy
cargo. The Trans-Siberian moves 120 million tons of cargo a year, 13%
of the container trade between Europe and Asia. Russia is investing in a US$17
billion expansion
and adding 55 million extra tons of cargo capacity.
It is tripling the capacity of Russia’s Pacific coast terminals by 2020; for the
expansion of St Petersburg’s port, Siemens is supplying 675 extra cargo
electric locomotives as part of a $3.2 billion deal.
The name of the game is Russia increasing its exports of raw commodities by
all means available. At least 250,000 barrels of oil a day move from Russia to
Asia. The upgraded Trans-Siberian will do wonders for Europe-Asia trade. Via
the Trans-Siberian, Asian products reach Europe in 15 days; by sea, from South
Korea or Japan, it’s 30-40 days to Germany. This makes Japan and South
Korea huge Trans-Siberian fans. And from a European point of view, nothing
beats the cheaper, faster Trans-Siberian way to Asia. Consider this from Pepe Escobar:
a comatose Europe; multiple frictions between Europe and the US; Beijing
looking inward trying to solve the puzzle of tweaking its development model;
and a paralyzed Obama administration, Moscow has identified the perfect opening
and embarked on a no-holds-barred strategic commercial expansion.
That
leaves ol’ Vladimir free to construct a new strategic reality not only in
Europe’s periphery but at its core as well. Russia is back – with a bang, while Mr. Obama sleeps.
Despite the fact that the US and Russia are mutually dependent on a vast array
of issues, the New York Times posted an editorial
justifying the cancellation of the summit:
bigger problem is that the partnership that Mr. Obama sought to build with
Russia is seriously broken. Ever since Mr. Putin reclaimed the presidency in
2012, he has been profoundly at odds with the administration over the Syrian
civil war, missile defense issues and further reductions in nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, Mr. Putin is a repressive and arrogant leader who treats his people
with contempt, as the recent crackdown on gays and lesbians demonstrates.
It
is amazing to see the Times’ editorial board’s opinion demonstrate how the main
stream media can’t grasp the totality of the Russian worldview, or their true economic
threat to the US. The Obama administration focuses on missile defense, Iran and
Syria. Russia focuses on pipelines and rail cargo transit that is faster and
cheaper than sea transit.
The
cluelessness of the Obama administration and the Beltway think tanks cannot be
overemphasized. Nobody inside the Beltway has articulated a sound Russian
policy – apart from demonizing Putin, which is precisely what Sen.
John McCain did last Sunday on Fox News, saying that he looked into Putin’s
eyes and “saw three letters: a K, a G and a B.”
It was amazing to see
how quickly George W. Bush weakened US influence in the world. It is unbelievable
that Mr. Obama is on track to accomplish just as much in this area as Mr. Bush
did.
I can see why Obama did what he did. Snowden is both a hero and a snivelling shit who got himself in too deep.
And re Russia. Obama can’t really do anything. Russia want’s little from us, an insular nation that has energy to sell. We want much from them, and we fucked up after the Soviet Union collapsed and we acted like they were over. The Russians felt cheated of their empire as Nato gloated.
So its 2 decades too late. Russia can’t touch us, but unless we decide to piss on their olympics, we can’t do much to them.
The editorialist really is off base… i think.