What’s
Wrong Today:
Yesterday
was a wild afternoon. Mr. Obama overruled John Kerry, Susan Rice, and Samantha
Powers who, earlier in the day had opposed Russia’s proposal to take
control of Syria’s CW. That proposal, which would place Syria’s CW under
international control and subsequently destroy them, had been accepted by Syria
and was endorsed by the Ban Ki-Moon and David
Cameron.
The State
Department then walked
back Kerry’s remarks that Syria needed to give up its CW, and Susan Rice
said that only
regime change would do.
But later,
Mr. Obama told all the networks said that he was willing to pursue the Russian
plan. From
Politico:
Obama would put strikes against Syria on hold if Bashar Assad’s regime were to
turn over control of its chemical weapons, he said Monday, as Senate Majority
Leader Harry Reid announced that he will wait to hear the president make his
case to the nation Tuesday before holding an initial vote on military action.
The President
said his team will engage in talks with Russia and Syria. More from Politico:
CNN…and John Kerry and the rest of my national security team will engage with
the Russians and the international community to see if we can arrive at
something that is enforceable and serious.
Kerry? He
initiated the proposal before he was against Putin’s acceptance of his proposal
before he was in favor of his own proposal.
What a putz!
Politico
also talks about
Kerry’s actions, which it tries to frame charitably as:
career, Kerry’s had a problem with words
With Obama
as his foil, Putin is now dominating global diplomacy; the Bismarck of our era,
dancing around Obama like a toreador contemplating a mound of steaks. He’s got game.
If Putin
gets Syria to agree and the US to stand down from attacking Syria, Obama has to
give his Nobel Peace Prize to Putin. That would give Putin a Super Bowl Ring
and a Nobel Peace Prize, and rock star status, since he would have twice
defeated the world’s only (and widely resented) superpower. He has been pitch-perfect
on the Snowden business and on Syria. Neither affair has cost him anything and
he has come out of them with greater stature as a statesman.
It is way too early to say this idea will work, but if it does, let’s look at some winners, beyond
your returning champion, Vladimir Putin:
- War-weary
Americans: both military personnel and citizens
- Bashar
al-Assad: The possible deal confirms his role as a ruling head of state
- Syrian
civilians: Who would be collateral damage in the cruise missile strike
And if the
negotiated settlement works, who are the losers?
- Mr. Obama’s foreign policy team of John Kerry, Susan Rice and
Samantha Powers: The President may need to get rid of one or more of them to
preserve his own credibility.
- AIPAC:
The Israel lobby has worked very hard to
get the missile strike launched politically. Israel has a demographics problem
in the US since younger Jews do not seem to have much affinity for Israel in
polling, and many are firmly opposed to its policies in Palestine. It may be
that Israel’s drive to move against Iran is driven as much by demographic
change in the US as by Iran’s projected timetable for nuclear development,
since demographic change in the US means Israel’s days of being able to rely on
the US as a staunch ally may be numbered.
- The Syrian opposition: Where are their
spokespeople?
- Al Qaeda: Less chaos and
killing makes their job more difficult.
- Mr. Obama: While the apologists will say that he
was playing three-dimensional chess, he looks ineffectual.
Mr. Obama, 2009:
partnership with the Muslim world is critical in rolling back a fringe ideology
that people of all faiths reject. But I also want to be clear that America’s
relationship with the Muslim world cannot and will not be based on opposition
to al Qaeda. Far from it. We seek broad engagement based upon mutual interests
and mutual respect.
Can America have THAT Obama back again?
The Russians game has been to copy Britain’s 19th Century
strategy in Europe which was to keep a balance of power among states. Russia’s
goal is to blunt US power where possible or to insure that the US is occupied elsewhere
so that we can’t meddle in their areas of influence. Putin, although the
American media makes fun of him, is the most intelligent leader Russia has had
since Khrushchev and unlike K, he controls both the military and security
apparatus and therefore, he has power to take his ideas to action.
On the
other hand, the strategic incoherence at the top of the American government and
the global power vacuum that has been created are frightening. And we’re not
just talking about Obama and the Democrats. The Republican Party also has no
coherent global strategy or outlook. In the Syrian matter, the Obama
Administration will come out ahead by not launching missiles, dropping bombs or
landing black helicopters full of Seals.
Russia
looks particularly good, despite the
fact that it has spent most of the past 4 decades arming Syria to the teeth.
Their strategy was to create a military parity with Israel, but once the Soviet
Union fell apart, Syria couldn’t match the Israel Defense Force.
It’s clear
that Mr. Obama (or Kerry, Powers, and Rice) could blow this tentative deal,
either by design or ineptitude. Mr. Obama is laying the groundwork for pinning
any failure of the Russian deal on Mr. Assad’s bad faith, even if the reasons
are different.
And if
Syria’s CW are brought under the control of the UN or another entity, expect to
hear the word appeasement thrown around in Congress, along with rants about a coming
jihadist storm.
Despite
whether the deal happens or not, you will hear from Congressman Darrell Issa
(R-CA), who will certainly conduct Syriagate hearings to go along with his
Benghazigate hearings.
