Whatâs
Wrong Today:
Whatâs wrong in Saudi Arabia? In August, Saudi Arabia offended
Russiaâs president over Syria, then it turned
down a seat on the UN Security Council and last week, announced
its disapproval of US foreign policy. For a nation with substantial
vulnerabilities, the Saudis act as though they can survive their internal and
external enemies without any help.
Saudi Arabia is an economy based entirely on huge oil revenues controlled by an extended family
network. About 85% of the population is Sunni Muslims. Its richest oil
fields face hostile neighbors (Iran, Iraq, and Syria). All this is defended
by an unproven military. Given that reality, you would think that the Saudis would
want to court the US, the only world power thatâs shown a willingness to defend
them. But, apparently not.
Last week, members
of Saudi Arabia’s ruling family signaled a rift with the US that could take the
alliance between Washington and the Kingdom to its lowest point in years. The
United States and Saudi Arabia have been
allies since the Kingdom was declared in 1932. That relationship has given the
House of Saud a powerful military protector and Washington, secure oil supplies.
Reuters reported
that Prince Bandar bin Sultan (known in the US as âBandar Bushâ for his
relationship with both Presidents Bush) told European diplomats that the United
States has failed to act effectively against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
or in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, was growing closer to Tehran, and had
failed to back Saudi support for Bahrain when it crushed an anti-government
revolt in 2011.
Reuters
added that Prince Turki al-Faisal a member of the Saudi royal family and former
director of Saudi intelligence, said:
of international control over [Syrian President] Bashar’s chemical arsenal
would be funny if it were not so blatantly perfidious. And designed not only to
give Mr. Obama an opportunity to back down (from military strikes), but also to
help Assad to butcher his people
If that
wasnât clear enough, the breach between the United States and Saudi Arabia was also on display in Washington,
where another Saudi prince criticized Mr. Obama’s Middle East policies,
accusing him of “dithering” on Syria and Israeli-Palestinian peace.
It may be that this is a real âpivotâ by Saudi Arabia,
but maybe we should consider the possibility that Bibi is behind this. According
to Debka.com, Israel may just
be playing a card: (emphasis by the Wrongologist)
of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu…leaked word to the media that
high-ranking Gulf emirate officials had recently visited Israel, signaling a
further widening in the rift between Israel and President Barack Obama
over his outreach to Tehran. These visits were in line with the ongoing exchanges Israel was holding with
Saudi and Gulf representatives to
align their actions for offsetting any potential American easing-up on Iranâs
nuclear program.
Perhaps the
Saudiâs change in strategy grew out of these recent meetings as an effort to pressure Congress to go to war with Syria, or with Iran.
Saudi
Arabia has a close relationship with Israel. In fact, the Israelis have a
military base in Tabuk, in northwestern Saudi Arabia. The Israelis and the
Saudis have an agreement to arm and fund the rebels in Syria. The Israelis strengthened
that relationship last week with Saudi Arabia just as the news broke that the Saudiâs
were moving away from the US.
But wait! Al
Jazeera reported yesterday that after weeks of agitation for increased
attacks on the Syrian government and its president, Bashar al-Assad, the Saudis signaled a 180 degree change
in policy. Saudi Arabia’s highest religious authority, the grand Mufti
Abdulaziz Al al-Sheikh, told young Saudis they should not go to Syria to
fight in the civil war:
factions and one should not go there. I do not advise one to go there … Going
to a land that you do not know and without experience, you will be a burden to
them, what they want from you is your prayer.
The grand
Mufti, who is appointed by the Saudi king, also warned preachers against
encouraging young men to fight in Syria during their sermons, after delivering a lecture on “Deviation among the youth” at a
mosque:
fearful of God and not deceive young Muslims and exploit their weakness and
lack of insight and push them to an abyss
Based on the Muftiâs
statement, fighting with the Syrian rebels is no longer a sacred cause, it is
something to be avoided, according to the Kingdomâs most important Muslim
cleric.
But, Prince Bandar Bush has been recruiting
Saudis and Sunnis from around the Middle East to fight with the rebels in Syria. It
is unclear whether the statement by the Mufti will stop the flow of jihadists to
Syria from Saudi Arabia. It is also unclear if this signals a major
conflict with the policies of Prince Bandar or, perhaps, a major blow to
Bandarâs authority and standing. What is clear is that they throwing Bandar under the bus.
This looks
like a squabble inside the Saud family that is based in the reality that we wonât
be pressed into a war with Syria, and that they have no power to stop us from opening talks with
Iran on their nuclear program.
Since Saudi
Arabia and Iran are competitors, the Saudis want to make sure that they get
something for our tilt towards Syria and Iran. First, they probably are looking
for assurances that the Saudis won’t lose too much political influence in the
region if US-Iranian relations are regularized. Second, an American détente with
Iran means there will be much more Iranian oil on world markets, so Saudi
Arabia wants to make sure that it doesn’t lose profits. Third, they may want to
hear that we are not taking sides in the Sunni-Shia divide.
Could all
of this be a smart move on our part? The cold war ended long ago. We need Saudi
Arabia less diplomatically than we used to, and we need less of their oil as
well. As Oil Price notes:
world witnessed a paradigm shift: China surpassed the United States as the
worldâs largest consumer of foreign oil, importing 6.3 million barrels per day
compared to the United Statesâ 6.24 million. This trend is likely to continue
and this gap is likely to grow, according to the EIAâs October
short-term energy outlook. Wood Mackenzie, a leading global energy consultancy,
echoed this prediction, estimating Chinese oil imports will rise
to 9.2 million barrels per day (70% of total demand) by 2020.
Go ahead, sell
your oil to China, and get paid in Yuan.
Maybe we
could also tell the Saudis that we will no longer tolerate their religious
suppression. And BTW, why not let your women drive? And if you are so concerned about Syria, just
send your troops. Americans are sick to death (literally) of fighting wars on
behalf of various Middle Eastern power players.
That
includes you too, Israel.
fuck the Saudis anyway! they really are not “getting it”