What’s Wrong Today:
The level of ambivalence in Europe regarding what to
do about Ukraine and Russia’s actions continues to grow. Bloomberg reported that the EU added
13 people to its list of sanctioned Russians and, for the first time, added a
few companies. However, the companies were two Crimean energy companies that were
expropriated from Ukraine by Russia.
Are these actions proof that the EU is ready to
endure much of the self-inflicted pain that effective economic sanctions against
Russia would involve?
Not really.
French President Francois Hollande confirmed
on Monday that France will sell to Russia two Mistral
Class helicopter carriers worth €1.2 billion ($1.64 billion). You might
have thought that this sale would have been canceled, since the vessels enable
Russia to quickly deliver air power and tanks to potential battle zones in the
Black Sea area, (think: Odessa, Moldova and Georgia). In fact, the second
carrier is named “Sevastopol”, after the Crimean seaport. Russian sailors will start
training on board the first ship next month, and will take delivery in October.
France
24 reported that, despite tensions between Russia and the West reaching
their highest point since the end of the Cold War, French President Hollande
invited Vladimir Putin to attend the commemoration of the landing at Normandy by
the allies on June 6. Russia’s ambassador to France, Alexander Orlov:
to take part in the ceremonies to commemorate the Normandy landings on June 6.
He has accepted the invitation
France 24 quoted President Hollande:
have not forgotten and will never forget that the Russian people gave millions of
lives [during World War II]…I told Vladimir Putin that as the representative
of the Russian people, he is welcome to the ceremonies
Hollande said in an interview with France 2 that the Normandy
landings were only possible because of the Soviet Army’s effort in the east, while
French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said:
left 9 million dead in the battle against Nazism? The landings in Normandy
would never have been possible without the eastern front
Bloomberg quotes
German Chancellor
Angela Merkel: (brackets by the Wrongologist)
participating in the meeting in Normandy…I had wished that despite the
differences of opinion that we have and this large conflict [Ukraine] — that
despite that, a commemoration of the difficult times of World War II would be
possible. Therefore I think its good news
The June 6 commemoration will mark the first time
Putin and Western leaders will come face-to-face since the outbreak of the
crisis in Ukraine. Mr. Obama will be at the Normandy Commemoration, but Josh Earnest, a White
House spokesman, said there were no plans for Obama to have a separate meeting
with Putin.
It may be appropriate for the parties to separate
the war commemorations of WWII from the current geopolitical conflict, and it
seems that the US was in agreement about Putin attending the ceremonies.
But the Ukraine situation continues: On Tuesday, days
after Ukraine received the first $3.2 billion tranche from an International
Monetary Fund (IMF) aid package, Russia’s Gazprom sent Ukraine a $1.6 billion bill for pre-payment of June’s gas deliveries, at $486.50 per
thousand cubic meters (the highest in Europe, and up from $268.50 before
Ukrainian President Yanukovych was deposed). Failure to pay, Gazprom said, will mean
that supplies will be cut off starting June 3.
Mr. Putin says Russia wants to see Ukraine’s future
resolved through dialogue, that it didn’t want Sunday’s independence referendum
in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, and that it is withdrawing
troops from Ukraine’s border. But, he then endorsed the referendum results, and
hasn’t moved his troops away from the boarder.
So, if we look at actions, rather than just what has
been said, the Europeans also continue to show their deep ambivalence regarding
Putin’s words and actions in Ukraine. Europe wants the conflict to just go away,
while Kiev has no ability to respond to its citizens’ need for protection, or
to the moves of its Eastern citizens toward independence.
According to The
Jamestown Foundation: (brackets by the Wrongologist)
order-enforcement operations in the eastern regions, because it needs to
restore governability [in time for] the presidential elections scheduled for May 25.
And Moscow cannot stop supporting armed separatists, because it needs to derail
the elections. So the spiral of escalation continues
Putin has executed a smart tactical maneuver by
playing to the business/political interests in the West that say Ukraine isn’t
worth a confrontation. He also continues to use Russia’s economic clout with
Europe to stifle any unified and severe sanctions response from the EU.
Russia is also closely involved with several of Mr. Obama’s
top foreign policy priorities, even negotiating alongside Washington in talks
aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program.
All of this leaves the US without much leeway to act.
Despite the results of the Eastern referendum, the diplomatic initiative could remain in
the hands of Ukraine. The presidential elections on May 25th
could rescue Ukraine from being a failed state if turnout is high, and the
results undisputed.
A reconstituted Ukrainian state would see Russia as
an existential threat, so “winning Crimea, but losing Ukraine” is the best
Putin could achieve, if the elections were to be a unifying event for the
country.
Instead, civil war, is a real possibility. The Jamestown
Foundation reports that nearly half of Russians now see civil war as the most
probable outcome of the Ukrainian crisis (up from 22% in early March). Mr. Putin
could be the loser if there is a brushfire civil war, since any Russian intervention
might trigger unity in Europe against Moscow.
Whether
it is a successful election or civil war, the US should not do more. Europe
doesn’t want to do more, Russia doesn’t want to do more. Ukrainians can’t do much more. All of these actors have to want to do more than the US if we are to be an effective broker in the region.
America’s
neo-cons want us to get involved. We hear them shout: “appeasement” and “Obama
is another Chamberlain” (That’s Neville, not Wilt).
Why
is it in our interest to listen to them?
There are times when borders change and times when they are stable. the stability of Eastern Europe (excluding Austria) after 1949 was shattered when the USSR fell. two decades later, the southern slavic states remain works in progress. The Ukraine in particular has never stopped being a Russian satellite (the eastern third still have soviet era industry). If we can remind ourselves that this all should have been anticipated, we might be able to let it. The USSR does not have the means to extend itself past the middle of the Ukraine – nor the money.