The Daily Escape:
Irises on the beach, OR – June 2022 photo by Edwin Buske Photography
Our visit to Asheville, NC for a family wedding was a great success. Now we return to a world where love doesnât conquer all.
Much has been written about whether the Democrats will be helped in the mid-term elections by the Supreme Courtâs Dobbs decision overturning Roe. Recent polls show a shift in attitude away from Republicans in Congressional races. Simon Rosenberg of NDN, a Washington think tank, sees a big change in political polling since Dobbs. Rosenberg tweeted:
These data suggest voters have swung 3-5 points towards Democrats in recent weeks. Five of the nine polls show meaningful movement toward the Democrats since their last poll.
And that polling shift seems to have carried over to the Senate. New polling from Future Majority (FM) finds a far better Senate landscape for Democrats. Here are a few data points from FM:
AZ â Sen. Mark Kelly leads Masters, 48-39, Lamon 47-41. He trailed a generic Republican 43-45 in March.
GA â Sen. Ralph Warnock leads Walker 48-44.  He trailed 48-49 in March.
NH â Sen. Maggie Hassan leads Bolduc 49-40.  They didnât poll NH in March.
NV â Sen. Cortez Masto leads Laxalt 46-43.  She trailed Laxalt 43-45 in March.
Most important, FM found that enthusiasm to vote among Democrats has overtaken Republican enthusiasm. After trailing Republican motivation throughout most of 2022, now 92% of Democrats say they are extremely motivated to vote in November, while 89% of Republican voters say they are extremely motivated to vote. This is a seven-point boost in Democratsâ 85% enthusiasm in March.
Also, they found that reproductive freedom is a top priority for Democrat voters in November: 77% of Democrats and 45% of Independents identify the SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe as a top priority in their vote. Itâs the top issue for Democrats and the 2nd most important issue to Independents.
If the FM polls are accurate, Democrats leading in the generic ballot is a game-changer for the 2022 mid-terms. The election is now competitive. Itâs no longer a Republican wave election. But the election isnât being held today, itâs four months away. And these polls, along with all the others, are fallible. But the times make it both right and important for Dems and Independents to be energized.
We need to hammer home that America had a coup against our government led by the last Republican president. And this year, weâve seen the Republican-dominated Supreme Court rule against the majority view of the country on guns, abortion, religion and climate change.
It isnât a stretch to say that the Courtâs Conservative majority may side with Republicans when their partisans try to decide the next few elections for us. After years of change and accelerating division, the last few months have made it perfectly clear just what Republicans do when they get political power.
One big question in November is if the under-30 voters who helped power the Democratsâ wins in 2020 will show up in 2022. David Hogg, one of the Parkland shooting survivors who has become a political activist, tweeted at his fellow Gen Z cohort:
âI understand how tone deaf it sounds to say we need to keep voting but itâs important to remember a couple things-
1.) Itâs one day every 2 years 2.) Itâs a tool we have in our tool box to create change- we canât afford to not use every tool we have 3.) If it didnât change anything they wouldnât be trying so hard to stop us
6.) When hardcore conservatives didnât like the Republican Party in the 1960-70s their solution wasnât to stop voting it was the opposite. It was voting WAY more in primaries and growing the power of their vote. They turned out every election for decades and that brought us here.
7.) The solution is NOT to stop voting which would literally be the worst possible thing we could do. It will ensure the only people who stay in power are Dems who refuse to abolish the filibuster and republicans. We need to grow our lead in the senate and keep the house.
8.) Power is grown over decades of voting for the best candidates in primaries and then blue no matter who. It should be obvious but the solution to growing our power isnât to diminish it by not voting. Itâs to vote for the best candidate and hold them accountable.â
Hogg gets it.
The abortion war should unite Democrats, while dividing Independents and Republicans, giving Dems an opening, if they know how to use it.
Democrats finally have a culture war they can win.
