The Daily Escape:
Sunset, Blue Ridge Mountains, near Asheville, NC – February 2023 photo by Andre Daugherty
Yesterday, Wrongo posted the Gallup Pollâs recent survey showing that 65% of Americans support continuing with the war in Ukraine, even if it’s a prolonged conflict. Staying the course in Ukraine requires us to think carefully about both the means of continuing to arm Ukraine, and also about the ends we hope to achieve once the fight is over.
The New Yorkerâs David Remnick interviewed Russian historian Stephen Kotkin about how the war in Ukraine ends. Kotkin points out that the war is far from over, but we can look at how it might end:
âThe Biden Administration has effectively defined victory from the American point of view as: Ukraine canât lose this war. Russia canât take all of Ukraine and occupy Ukraine, and disappear Ukraine as a state, as a nation.â
Kotkin thinks that from the Ukrainian viewpoint, victory has mostly to do with getting into the European Union:
â…that has to be the definition of victory: Ukraine gets into the European Union. If Ukraine regains all of its territory and doesnât get into the EU, is that a victory? As opposed to: If Ukraine regains as much of its territory as it physically can on the battlefield, not all of it…but does get EU accessionâwould that be a definition of victory? Of course, it would be.â
Currently, weâre experiencing a war of attrition between Ukraine and Russia. In order to win this type of war, you have to out-produce your enemyâs weapons production.
But is that realistic? The US is the major supplier of arms to Ukraine, but we havenât ramped up our production of the weapons weâre sending to Ukraine. Instead, weâre drawing down our supplies of armaments. More from Kotkin: (brackets by Wrongo)
âWe havenât ramped up industrial production at all. At peak, the Ukrainians were firing…upward of ninety thousand artillery shells a month. US monthly production of artillery shells is fifteen thousand. With all our allies thrown in, everybody in the mix who supports Ukraine, you get another fifteen thousand….So you can [produce] thirty thousand…artillery shells while expending ninety thousand a month. We havenât ramped up…..Weâre running out.â
So, can we actually provide the means to get to the ends Biden wants, or the ends that Ukraine wants? Not without doing something radically different than we’re doing now.
Politically, from here to the 2024 election weâll see a debate about whether we should be in Ukraine at all. This debate will form a key element in who the Republicans select as their presidential nominee.
Mike Pence isnât a first-level presidential candidate, but on Friday he rebuked fellow Republicans who have given less-than-robust support for Americaâs defense of Ukraine. On NBC, he lays out the classic Republican position clearly:
â…I would say anyone that thinks that Vladimir Putin will stop at Ukraine is wrong…â
NBC also quoted DeSantis: (brackets by Wrongo)
âAn open-ended blank check [in Ukraine]…is…not acceptable…..Russia has been really, really wounded here and I donât think that they are the same threat to our country, even though theyâre hostile. I donât think theyâre on the same level as a China.â
The WSJâs Kimberley Strassel writes that Trump intends to make limiting or ending the war in Ukraine a central element in his campaign. She quotes Trump:
âThis thing has to stop, and itâs got to stop now…the US should negotiate peace between these two countries, and I donât think they should be sending very much.â
Strassel thinks that Trump sees an opening to rally the part of his base thatâs skeptical of military commitments abroad. So he, like Congressional Republicans are floating a false choice: A strong America globally or a strong America domestically:
âThe GOP for more than 70 years has been the party of strong defense….Trump and a small group (at least for now) of congressional Republicans risk throwing all that hard-earned credibility away, neutralizing one of the partyâs greatest strengths…â
Clearly thereâs a developing split in the GOP over whether America should be backing the war or seeking immediate peace in Ukraine.
Regardless of Republican Party politics, donât Ukrainians deserve the chance to try to win on the battlefield? Whether America is willing to ramp up its weapons production will partially answer that question. And whether weâre able to keep our eyes on the prize of a reunited NATO, a reunited EU, and a free Ukraine.
Time to wake up America! It seems possible that the Republican Party might shift to preferring a strong America domestically rather than a strong America globally.
That would be a political earthquake in our politics.
And how would the Democrats adjust? Their political brand is already pretty damaged among the White non-college educated in heartland America. Would the Dems become Americaâs military spending Party?
To help you wake up, listen to 1973âs âLive and Let Dieâ written by Paul and Linda McCartney, and performed live by McCartney:
This disconnect between Democrats and non college white folks is weird. While the GOP pretends to populism, so far they remain anti union. They also remain opposed (in many states) to expanding medicaid which is the very thing their voters need.
But Dems are preachy and tiresome. And for more non college workers – they don’t need what dems offer until disaster happens and they do. We saw this during COVID where workers really did need the dole. Also free vaccines and expanded food stamps.
Even the issue of guns is weird. I live in suburban Morris County. Very low crime even in towns with significant minority populations. A man I have known since 2021 (we sing in the same choir) turns out to be a rabid gun nut. Based on what? He seems to be convinced that he needs a gun at all times. But at 9:30 at night when we leave church after choir practice to walk to our cars… in a darkened parking lot in a town with a lot of poor. Well there is no one around the threaten us.
So how do bizarre beliefs become compelling?
Well the answer is the media bubble that exists for right wing nonsense.