The Daily Escape:
Tini Martini Bar, St. Augustine, FL – December 2023 photo by Rosie Taylor Photography. Wrongo and Ms. Right have had many martinis there in the recent past.
Wrongo has seen enough. The US must change direction in its support for Israel’s war in Gaza. This isn’t an easy decision. Israel has suffered mightily at the hands of Hamas in Gaza and at the hands of Hezbollah in Lebanon with its backer, Iran.
Wrongo has written about the lack of proportionality in Israel’s attacks in Gaza. Now that the war is two+ months old, there can be little doubt that by turning about half of Gaza into a parking lot, Israel’s war is at least as much about uprooting Palestinians as it is about destroying Hamas.
It would be naïve to think that cutting off (or reducing) American funding to Israel would materially improve the chances of Palestinian statehood. And the prospects of that happening have been decreased both by Israel’s disproportionate response to 10/7 and by Netanyahu’s explicit opposition to any form of Palestinian statehood post-hostilities.
Unless the war is ended soon, it will widen beyond Gaza.
It’s already heating up in Lebanon with Hezbollah firing more than 1,000 different types of rockets, missiles, drones, and mortars toward Israel since October 8. Newsweek asked how close Israel was to full-scale war in Lebanon. Israel’s spokesperson said:
“…we could have been at war with Hezbollah…based solely on their actions, their violation of Israeli sovereignty and the casualties that they have caused…”
The tempo of attacks along the boundary between Israel and Lebanon are at levels not seen since the IDF and Hezbollah fought in 2006. Axios reports that Israel told the Biden administration it wants Hezbollah to move six miles back from its border, far enough that they will not be able to fire at Israeli towns along the border. But why would Hezbollah agree?
In Yemen, the Houthi are attacking ships transiting the Red Sea. The US announced a new multinational security initiative aimed at protecting ships in the Red Sea from Houthi attacks. Apparently it’s mostly a PR effort. Politico reported that three additional US destroyers have been moved into the Mediterranean Sea and a Carrier Strike Group vessel has been moved into the Gulf of Aden. Attacks by Houthi militants have prompted Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) (both are container shipping companies) to avoid the area.
And inside the Israel/Hamas war in Gaza, CNN reports that an IDF sniper killed a mother and daughter inside the Holy Family Parish in Gaza on Saturday. Seven others were wounded in the attack on the complex, which is housing most of Gaza’s Christian families seeking safety. Pope Francis condemned it.
Also, Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza is no longer functioning and patients including babies have been evacuated, Reuters reported. Last week Israeli forces used a bulldozer to smash through the outside of the hospital.
Israel itself is roiled by the deaths of three Israeli hostages who were mistakenly killed by the IDF in Gaza. Apparently one was carrying a stick with a white cloth says the BBC. This sparked angry protests in Tel Aviv, where thousands of people called for a truce, chanting “Bring them home now“.
Netanyahu refused, saying Israel only had leverage if they continued to fight:
“Military pressure is necessary both for the return of the hostages and for victory. Without military pressure…we have nothing…”
For its part, Hamas said it will not release hostages until the war ends and Israel accepts its conditions for an exchange of 7,000 Palestinian prisoners, which Netanyahu says is a non-starter.
Biden is beginning to get uncomfortable. Recent polling by New York Times/Siena College shows that:
“Voters broadly disapprove of the way President Biden is handling the bloody strife between Israelis and Palestinians….with younger Americans far more critical than older voters of both Israel’s conduct and of the administration’s response to the war in Gaza.”
Here’s a chart from the NYT:
But among young voters, 46% sympathize more with the Palestinians, against 27% who favor Israel. Only 28% of those between the ages of 18 and 29 said Israel was seriously interested in a peaceful solution to the broader conflict, while older voters had far more faith in Israel’s intentions and less in the Palestinians’. Biden sees this and is casting blame on the hardline members of Netanyahu’s war cabinet more than on the prime minister:
“One of the things that Bibi understands, but I’m not sure…[Israel’s Minister of National Security Itamar] Ben-Gvir and his War Cabinet do…they’re starting to lose that support by the indiscriminate bombing that takes place…”
More from Biden:
“You cannot say there’s no Palestinian state at all in the future.”
But that’s exactly what Netanyahu said on Sunday:
“I’m proud that I prevented the establishment of a Palestinian state because today everybody understands what that Palestine state could have been…Now that we’ve seen the little Palestinian state in Gaza, everyone understands what would have happened if we had capitulated to international pressures and enabled a state like that on the West Bank.”
What’s Israel’s end game? It says it wants its hostages back and Hamas eliminated.
Wrongo thinks that Israel has crossed a line with both the excessive killing of Palestinian civilians and the excessive destruction of Gaza infrastructure. The human toll in Gaza may be incalculable, but DW estimates that the costs of rebuilding what has been destroyed through the Israeli bombardment of Gaza may be as high as $50 billion. Who will step up to pay for that?
Also, its likely that Israel has intentionally or not, created a new generation of antisemites living on their border for the next several decades.
America has very limited influence over Israel’s conduct, regardless of our level of funding, so our decision-making needs to be based on other factors. The 2024 election is the most important domestic factor. Biden should do whatever maximizes the chances of his re-election.
A thought exercise: By explicitly rejecting the two-state solution Israel either supports the “one state” or a “no state” solution. The “one state” solution requires that both sides live together on the same land in peace. But decades of history shows that Israelis and Palestinians can’t live together in peace. So the “one state” solution isn’t viable.
That means looking to a solution where Israel divests the Palestinian population of their citizenship, rights, ancestry and land. Where would the Palestinians live? Does it follow that Israel will insist that they be deported? If Israel even tries this, the world will no longer be the same.
Finally, is there a better way to unite all the other ME states against Israel than the current prolonged bombing/ground campaign, followed by a rejection of the two state solution? All that Israel is accomplishing is fanning the flames of religious zealotry. History says that never ends well.
Take a break and listen to “Happy Xmas (War Is Over)” released in 1971 by John & Yoko/Plastic Ono Band with the Harlem Community Choir. Having the kids chorus in the background elevates this tune:
And one line worth remembering: “War is over, if you want it”
