Why are the media so willing for America to go up against ISIS? Why are the media letting John McCain go on endlessly, and why are they acting as if Lindsay Graham is the second coming of Douglas MacArthur?
Our post-Cold War American politicians canât do the intellectual heavy lifting that connects policy to strategy. They are incapable of articulating a realistic vision of the political ends that are the desired outcome of a decisive use of military force.
US foreign policy in the Middle East for nearly a century has been based on one simple principle: Maximize the security of the delivery of fossil fuels from the region to the US. The corollary: While we’re doing that, let’s make sure to maximize the profits of the big corporations that benefit from the oil trade, and the corporations that make big profits by getting America to defend the oil companies.
âI listen to the commanders on the groundâ isnât strategy. And strategy shouldnât be formulated by the military. They have the operational role, but strategy should be based in the hands of our elected officials. Letâs see what Commander-in-Chief Obama says about our strategy for the Middle East on Wednesday. We shouldnât second-guess the strategy BEFORE it is promulgated, we can wait to do that.
Since the administration and nearly everyone else on Earth agrees that ISIS is a threat to at least some degree, the questions are:
⢠In what way is ISIS a threat to Americaâs security? To what extent are they a threat?
⢠What do we want the political end state to be in the ME if/when the threat of ISIS is contained, diminished or destroyed?
⢠What is it worth for America to accomplish this outcome in light of our other, competing, American interests, in the region and globally?
Once we answer those questions, Mr. Obama can give our military leaders definitive policy guidance. The Generals in turn can then give the administration the best possible advice on how military force could secure our aims, or how to use it in conjunction with other elements of national power, such as diplomacy, economic coercion or covert operations.
Moving forward, as McCain, Graham, Rubio and others want, without answering these questions, is another exercise in flailing about, hoping that using sufficient force opportunistically will cause good geopolitical things to happen.
It is important to see that ISIS is different from Al-Qaeda. ISIS focuses on the near enemy, the Iraqi and the Syrian Governments and their supporters, while Al-Qaeda focuses on the far enemy (think 9/11). That should be a pointer for our strategy. The US only attacked ISIS when the Kurdish oilfields were threatened. The message should be that ISIS can do whatever they want in northern Iraq and Syria â once they step out of their box they will get slapped hard.
We should ask if a militant and backward-looking form of Islam is what the people living in Islamic countries want. They are the ones who have to contend with the Muslims who financed the growth of militant Islam, and the Imams who preach it. The citizens in Muslim countries also have to take responsibility for their actions. They can’t just point at the Russians and Europeans and Americans and say “you made us do this.” There is some culpability among the Western powers, but we didn’t suggest, or encourage, Sunnis and Shiites to kill each other. That was a decision made by Muslims, some of whom are in power because of actions by the US.
Solving the problem presented by ISIS is primarily the job of the countries that have common borders with Syria and Iraq. We have a role, but it isnât our problem to solve. The US and its European allies do not possess the wisdom, or the will, or the tools to fix whatever it is that ails much of the Islamic world.
This is the principal lesson that the long Iraq war taught us. The direction of our future ME strategy lies in recognizing that fact.
No doubt, ISIS poses a danger. But for the US and Europe, the present danger is negligible. Regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran are both more directly threatened and far better positioned to deal with it. Offering indirect assistance might be helpful, however, the US would be better served simply to butt out. We’ve done enough damage.
Letâs ask some final questions on the way to developing a new ME strategy.
First, if it’s unacceptable to have an antidemocratic Sunni fundamentalist regime that routinely beheads people, denies women basic human rights, and uses oil money to support worldwide terrorism – what are we doing about Saudi Arabia?
Second, nobody’s saying that it’s fine for the ISIS lunatics to form a Sunni caliphate. But the regional powers who should able to and interested in stopping ISIS: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel, Iran, and Egypt must do the heavy lifting. Some have even participated in making ISIS what they are today. Let them clean it up.
If ISIS defeats its local opponents, and then truly threatens the world, there’d be sufficient reason to step in.
But so far, it has not.
YOu should only go to war when you have a genuine agreement over what we should do. But even among “experts” there is little agreement. Contrast this with WW2 where we had one objective – to smash the german army (in Europe). It is easy to smash an army. we smashed the Iraqi army twice. But with ISIS, even is we “smash” them, the next day more angry folks will emerge.
For now we need to stay out as much as possible.
@ Terry: The logic against doing nothing is that the strength and capabilities of ISIS have grown faster and qualitatively improved faster than any other terrorist group in the last forty years. With control of part of the oil revenues in Syria and Iraq, they are on a trajectory for further growth.
A Grand Coalition is the military answer. But who has the ability to bring together so many incompatible parties and weld them into a coordinated military campaign? That would require political-diplomatic wizardry to pull off. It also requires a far greater fear of ISIS than their brutality has generated so far, if Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Shias and Sunnis, Alawites and Kurds are to be military allies, working with Western military powers.
I agree a coalition would work, but reports are that Turkey won’t do much because 50 of their citizens are hostages.
We will see what happens.