The Daily Escape:
Sunrise, Duxbury, MA – September 2022 photo by Juergen Roth Photography
Fall is here and the midterms are 41 days away. And CBS reports that the Republicans have a lead, but it’s still shrinking. CBS’s analysts still have the GOP picking up the House, but it is still within reach:
“While they’re still in a very good position to capture a House majority, that majority looks narrower today than it ever has, having ticked down for the second straight month to 223 seats in our model estimate. Republicans were at 226 in August and 230 in July.”
CBS says that voters think the stakes are high, and for many it’s more than the pocketbook issues of gas prices and inflation. BTW, Wrongo paid $2.95/gal on Monday. Here’s a chart from CBS:
Voters believe by two to one that a Republican Congress would lead to women getting fewer rights and freedoms than they have now.
Other polls talk about whether people view the Parties’ candidates favorably or unfavorably, the WaPo reviewed more than 20 polls across the swing states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And in most cases, the Trump-aligned candidates have huge unfavorability deficits, but these popularity gaps are mostly larger than the expected voting margins in the actual head-to-head contests.
Let’s go back to the CBS poll for the reason why the Democrats are still trailing:
Despite having their voters’ enthusiasm grow, Democrats are still less likely than Republicans to say they’ll definitely vote. They haven’t closed that gap.
That makes the campaign right now about the Dems defining what the contest is about for their own voters and for independents. Once Dems get beyond the voters most concerned with abortion, they still have work to do making this midterm election look like other midterms where they’ve won.
The WaPo’s Aaron Blake tells us that the difference is that Republican and right-leaning swing voters see an obnoxious Republican and think: He may be a jerk, but he’s our jerk.
Democrats don’t do that. They fight among themselves about the virtue of their candidates.
Republicans have much more party loyalty than Democrats. Steve M. at No More Mister Nice Blog says it’s not hard to see why:
“Their favorite media sources have engaged in pure cheerleading for their party (and relentless demonization of the other party) for decades. The rest of the media is described as “liberal,” but it’s always ready to shiv a Democrat.”
He asks:
“Was there a single positive news story published about Joe Biden between the fall of Afghanistan and the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act?”
So it’s not surprising that these Republican jerks can be competitive.
Republicans are pretty much all on the same page now. They are a minority Party at the national level and that requires them to rely on Party unity to regain power.
Wrongo doesn’t know what to tell you. Everyone needs to communicate that if the Republican Party takes control of both Houses of Congress they will:
- Work to make voting more difficult or meaningless. They just voted against disclosing dark money in our elections, thereby reinforcing the damage done by Citizens United.
- Try to have their Republican legislatures decide who won an election by nullifying the power of state supreme courts to check rogue legislatures.
- Work to weaken Social Security and Medicaid.
- Try to pass a national abortion ban. And if that’s not enough, they are leaning towards a ban on contraception.
- Try to end the right to same sex marriage.
- Work to make America a one-religion state.
None of the above is an exaggeration. Republicans are pushing all of these terrible things right now.
Beyond that, here’s something to remind your friends who still aren’t sure how they’ll vote: Republicans historically don’t care about the issues they keep going on about on cable news, or in their incessant negative election ads. And they won’t do anything to address them if they win.
They have no real governing agenda. And there’s only one way to stop them.
Get out the vote.
