The Wrongologist

The Daily Escape:

Brant Point Light, Nantucket, MA – November 2023 photo by Ken Grille Photography

Let’s look at the election: You probably know that the Dems had a very good night. If polls and pundits didn’t exist, the narrative would be about how Republicans are in total disarray after six consecutive years of election losses and embarrassing nonperformance. That’s reality.

Add this from Rick Wilson:

“Joe Biden is old. Own it. I’ll take old and accomplished over old and evil every time. I don’t pity Joe Biden because he’s old. I honor him for still doing the work that has broken younger and stronger men…..For me, he is still the candidate.

He is still the man we need as President, taking on the fight to preserve America at home and abroad and taking on the world with faint-hearted support from his own party and an avalanche of vitriol from the GOP…”

You don’t need Wrongo to tell you who won/lost on Tuesday, but here’s some context: Democrats have won more votes in 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections than the GOP, the best popular vote run of any political party in US history.

• In the last 4 Presidential elections, Democrats have averaged 51% of the vote, their best showing over 4 elections since FDR.
• Democrats only received more than 50.1% of the vote ONCE from 1948 all the way to 2004. That was in 1964, the year after JFK’s assassination.
• That Dems have been above 51% in 3 of our last 4 presidential elections is pretty remarkable.
• In the 2008 race, Obama managed 52.9%
• In 2012 Obama got 51.1%
• And in 2020 Biden received 51.3%

The flaw is that with the Electoral College, where you win is more important than how many you win by.

Still, Dems continue to outperform expectations. In 2022, the so-called “red wave” year, Democrats gained ground from 2020 in 7 key states: AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA. They picked up 4 state legislative chambers, 2 governorships, and 1 US Senate seat, although they lost the US House.

In 2023, the Dems have outperformed again. From winning big in about 40 special elections earlier this year to winning contested elections on Tuesday in KY, VA, NH, PA and OH, we’ve seen very encouraging results. The Dems also added a new Congressperson in RI, and far Right school board candidates got defeated all over the country.

Also, Democrats elected mayors in five cities in Indiana. And Democrats picked up seats in the New Jersey legislature.

In Texas, the legislature has now defeated Gov. Abbott’s school voucher plan three times this year after building an alliance between Democrats and conservative rural House members who represent small school districts. The Dems adopted “Vouchers Kill Friday Night Lights” as a slogan in those places. In addition, Prop 9, to give retired public school teachers a pay raise, passed yesterday by 86% to 14%, the largest margin of any of the propositions. That shows real enthusiasm in Texas for public schools.

Wrongo is looking forward to how the NYT and CNN can explain that this is actually bad news for Biden. The WaPo, however, has already beaten the Times on the “it’s bad news for Biden” beat: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“As for how much solace this night provides a year before the 2024 election? There’s a real question about whether Republicans just don’t turn out when Trump isn’t on the ballot. Beshear was an incumbent. Virginia leans blue. And even if Democrats as a whole are well-poised, that doesn’t necessarily mean Biden, with his various liabilities, will be able to take advantage.”

But looking at the big picture, does it make sense after everything we’ve seen in this week’s elections that Trump is going to have his best election ever in 2024 by doing better than any Republican since GHW Bush in 1988?

What series of events do the pollsters think will cause that to happen? Can the GOP in a presidential election year get the turnout they’d need to cause that to happen? Wouldn’t that mean polls and pundits have to forecast yet another red wave like they forecasted in 2022, which didn’t materialize then, but will for certain materialize now?

Or are we supposed to think that 2024 is going to see a huge wave of pro-Trump “young” voters along with pro-Trump “black” voters who just didn’t show up in this week’s election?

Right now, nothing is at stake, and nothing will be at stake politically until 11 months from now. At that point, people who are polled today will have to make a choice. Until then they are free to be annoyed at Biden or anyone else. But when the implications of casting their ballots are clear, it will be a different story.

But until then, don’t expect the media to abandon its hyping of the “Biden in trouble” narrative.

The pundits are quick to report and slow to learn.