The Daily Escape:
Artichoke blossom, Imperial County, CA – June 2024 photo by Paulette Donnellon
The repealing of Roe v. Wade via the Dobbs decision has helped create a dynamic new political movement: A revolt of millions of Americans (predominantly women) who think government has no business inserting itself into a womanâs personal decisions. This is going to be an important factor in the 2024 elections as it was in 2022.
The Economist says that only:
â….ten thousand women eligible to vote in this Novemberâs elections were born before women won the right to vote. In the century since then, American women have steadily accumulated rights. In the 1960s the contraceptive pill let women choose how many children they had. In the 1970s no-fault divorce laws and Roe v Wade gave women more choices that had been denied to their mothers. This progress seemed irreversible, and was often taken for granted.â
Then it was time for the Trump-appointed Conservative Supreme Court majority to do what it had been hired to do: Overturn a womanâs right to an abortion. More from The Economist:
âA third of American women aged 15-49 now live in states where abortion is either illegal or impossibly restricted.â
These people are leading the biggest voter rebellion since the Tea Party movement in 2009.
Surprisingly, the number of abortions in the US has risen slightly since the Courtâs decision, mostly due to the availability of the drug Mifepristone, which can be prescribed by mail. Medication abortions now account for about 63 percent of pregnancy terminations nationwide. The legality of Mifepristone is also currently under review by the same six Conservative justices. That decision could come down as early as today, and certainly by early July.
What a country! Americans have grown used to the idea that every spring, we wait for 9 unelected government officials with lifetime jobs to tell us what kind of country weâre going to live in. Elections should serve this purpose, and we the people should be doing the telling.
But that revolution remains in our future. What is part of our present is an attempt by House Democrats to force a vote on codifying the right to birth control access nationwide. From the NYT: (brackets by Wrongo):
âThe [Democratâs] maneuver, through a procedural move known as a discharge petition, is all but certain to fail for lack of Republican support, but that is by design. It is part of a broad election-year push by Democrats to highlight Republicansâ record of opposing abortion rights and other reproductive health choices that voters fear will be stripped away following the fall of Roe v. Wade.â
The Senate Democrats also plan to force a vote on an identical contraceptive access bill, which once again, Republicans are expected to block. This coordinated push shows that Democrats regard access to abortion and contraception options as a key issue that will show a contrast with Republicans this fall.
Weâve seen that the Dobbs decision caused an immediate political reaction. Six states have held referendums on abortion, and in all six, the abortion rights side prevailed. A potential problem for anti-abortion Republicans is that referendums to legalize abortion could be on the ballot in up to 16 more states.
Abortion rights campaigners already have enough signatures to get on the ballot in a few states, including Florida. That state is crucial because it was the abortion destination for many women in the South until May 1st, when it outlawed most abortions after six weeks. If the Florida initiative passes, abortion will be legalized up to the point of viability, roughly 24 weeks. Democrats vainly hope the issue has put Florida in play in the presidential election, although it must pass by 60% to become law. It can easily impact the elections in Arizona and other states. More:
âIn only two of the six states that have held referendums, California and Vermont, did the abortion-rights side get such a large share. When Michigan held its referendum in 2022, 57% voted in favor of protecting abortion even though 63% broadly supported the procedure, a rate similar to Floridians.â
That means weâre in the middle of a vast political battle that parallels the presidential battle. Outside groups are pouring tens of millions of dollars into competitive House districts to amplify the message. The main super PAC supporting House Democrats last month announced a new $100 million fund focusing on abortion rights in swing districts.
And the group Americans for Contraception plans to spend more than $7 million on television and digital ads, targeting Republicans in the Senate who vote against the bill and House members who do not sign the petition.
A few voters could be pulled away from the Republicans. More from The Economist: (emphasis by Wrongo):
âThe midterm elections in 2022 hinted at that….Although only 14% of registered Republican voters were upset about the Dobbs ruling, a quarter of that group voted for a Democrat in their House district…. Republicans and independents who saw abortion as an important issue were more likely to vote for Democrats in 2022 than two years earlier.â
That equals 3.5% of Republicans, and may be among the reasons a predicted âred waveâ lifting Republican candidates failed to appear in 2022.
Republicans are in a bind on reproductive rights. They canât reconcile their Partyâs hard-line policies on womenâs health and theyâre out of step with the vast majority of the country. Despite that, they continue to try to tuck anti-abortion policies into pending legislation.
However the 2024 elections pan out, the anti-Dobbs movement represents something different in US politics. Unlike the Republicans, it isnât a group of keyboard warriors vying for attention or grift online. Instead itâs people giving up their weekends and evenings to try to persuade their neighbors about an idea they hold deeply.
And it isnât simply a political cause about a single issue. It’s many issues: The right to live, the right to privacy for medical procedures, the right to not be forced by the state to undergo unnecessary physical or mental injury.
Like most successful revolutions, itâs participatory and local. It is how democracy in America was designed to work. Help it succeed in November!
The history of how women gave birth and received care was once entirely controlled by midwives. Abortions – primarily via herbs – were handled through women caring for women. Only when doctors began to seize control of all care (this was mid 1800s and later) did abortion disappear. By the way, women often died of what was called milk fever by being treated by a doctor – who would have bacteria on their hands, sometimes coming right from an autopsy for example – whereas midwives generally did not (because they treated healthy women). In any case, wornen have always recognized the bind that the risk of pregnancy has over 30 years of their lives. Hence women largely support birth control and abortion.
My wife had an abortion in college before I met her. A few years later we were a married couple (we met in graduate school). She became pregnant – we talked about abortion, but she did not want to do that again. Nonetheless she supports abortion. The right wing press presents stories of women as having regrets after an abortion. That can be true but it does not change how women recognize that abortion must be available for some who really cannot go through a pregnancy. Many who have abortions already have children. some will eventually have children.