The Wrongologist

The Daily Escape:

First up, Wrongo discovered since his column about Thomas Miller, that AP/NORC, a respected mainstream polling organization is also asking the revolutionary question “Who do you think will win the election” rather than “Who are you going to vote for?”

It turns out that the answers were directionally similar to Miller’s:

“With two months remaining until the general election, a larger share of registered voters believe Kamala Harris will win compared to Donald Trump.”

The result was Harris, 38% vs. Trump 28%. The rest was split 34% between Don’t Know (14%) and Can’t choose (20%). The results aren’t earth-shaking, but It’s useful to see another organization ask the question.

Second, readers of the Wrongologist primarily skew older, so it is relatively easy for us to be oblivious to what’s going on in social media and the impact it has on our politics. Take for example, TikTok (“TT”). Despite what we think we know, TikTok is becoming the new TV.

Last month, Pew published a new report showing that:

“…about half of TikTok users under 30 say they use the app to keep up with politics and news.”

Here’s a chart:

 

In fact, the Harris campaign’s TikTok account, @kamalahq, has officially passed one billion views! It may sound absurd to crusty old political operatives, but if you want to reach the younger voter, TT seems to have surpassed TV as a place to look for them. From the FWIW Newsletter:

“Gen-Z media consumers use their phones to watch content exactly like it’s TV. These Americans aren’t ‘cord cutters.’ They never had a cord in the first place. Gen-Z spends less time watching traditional TV than any other age group, while Gen-Z TikTok users spend an average of 77 minutes per day on the app.”

More:

“TikTok’s growing…share of Gen-Z attention is even coming for the big streamers like Netflix – more than 50% of Gen-Z have canceled a streaming service in the past 6 months, and 66% would prefer watching TikTok over streaming.”

So TikTok should be the preferred landing spot for political advertising if the candidate is trying to reach Gen-Z.  Harris and Walz have gone on two of the most prominent TikTok shows, Subway Takes and Track Star. (Which we may not have heard of before.)

And the format was much like when they appear with Colbert or Kimmel.

Most Gen-Z consumers watch Colbert or Kimmel in the form of a clip on their phones or tablets, so TikToks function in the same way. The only differences are that TikTok shows are very short, averaging between 90 – 120 seconds of run time. They are optimized to play to the strength of the TT algorithm and go viral, and are produced at a fraction of the budget of traditional TV.

And there’s a huge difference between the Republicans, who in the most competitive Senate races, have made the decision to exclusively focus on old-school television ads, instead of online platforms where a majority of voters spend their time. FWIW found that in Michigan:

“…one prominent GOP Senate candidate had spent [less than] $10,000 online compared to his Democratic rival’s $2 million.”

There’s been a big shift to TikTok after Biden withdrew: Trump content was dominating TT, and had started accumulating many more views, likes, and followers than Biden. FWIW reports that using the social analytics platform Zelf to track sentiment of TikTok posts, pro-Harris content is now the norm on the app.

The growing disparity means that the Democrats are connecting with Gen-Z where they are, in a way that Republicans aren’t able to do by using traditional cable and television ads. While we know that TT has serious legal jeopardy, that won’t become a factor until after the election is decided.

So we’re seeing more about how social media and technology are eclipsing the old school ways of running presidential campaigns. Let’s hope we’re on the right side of this story!