Whatās
Wrong Today:
Our
never-ending election season is about to shift into high gear. And itās a
midterm election, which occur every two years in between the only elections
which Democratic voters seem to think matter. Nothing could be farther from the
truth.
From the LA Times:
prospect of losing control of the Senate in November, Democrats have begun a
high-stakes effort to try to overcome one of their party’s big weaknesses:
voters who don’t show up for midterm elections
First, a quick refresher: Republicans hold 30 seats that are not up
for election in 2014. To gain control of the Senate, they need 51,
since Vice President Biden would cast tie-breaking votes in a 50-50
Senate. They currently hold 45 seats. Thus the Republicans need to hold
their 15 seats that are up, plus win 6 of the 21 Democratic seats that are up this fall.
(Democrats hold 52, while there are 2 Independents)
Another
way to look at it comes from the Economist:
net gain of six seats to capture the Senateā¦the playing field favors themā¦This
year [contested seats] include a clutch of Republican states that Democrats won
inā¦2008, when Barack Obama was first elected president
Four
Democrats are fighting to keep seats in states that Mr. Obama lost in 2012:
Mark Begich of Alaska, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and
Kay Hagan of North Carolina. None has a clear road to victory.
In 2008,
Mr. Begich eked out a victory over Ted Stevens, the Republican incumbent who had
been convicted of ethics violations just eight days before the election (those
convictions were later vacated).
Eight
senators are retiring or have quit. Of these, five are Democrats, 3 of whom come
from states that Mr. Obama lost by more than ten points in 2012: Jay
Rockefeller of West Virginia, Max Baucus of Montana and Tim Johnson of South
Dakota. Republican candidates enjoy healthy poll leads in all three states. The
other two Dems are in states that Mr. Obama won by less than ten points: Tom
Harkin of Iowa and Carl Levin of Michigan.
The
biggest challenge for Democrats this November isnāt to āwinā this or that
public relations battle about the presidentās job performance or the economy or
Obamacare or Ukraineāitās the challenge of improving the turnout of certain demographic
categories who do not turn out as well in midterm elections as they do in
presidential elections.
In fact, the LA Times reported that the Democratic Senate
campaign committee plans to spend $60 million to boost turnout. That’s nine
times what it spent in the last midterm election, in 2010. -And the Democratic
National Committee (DNC) has begun to make the sophisticated data analysis
tools developed to target voters in the 2012 presidential campaign available to
all the party’s candidates.
And President
Obama has talked of need for candidates to start now to work on reducing the
number of so-called drop-off voters:
elections, young people vote; women are more likely to vote; blacks, Hispanics
more likely to vote…But when the presidency is not at stake, those
Democratic-leaning groups tend to stay home
The
message is that Democrats canāt expect demographics to save the Senate.
Instead, the question is how to avoid a big
drop-off.
According to exit polls, voters younger
than 30 made up 12% of the electorate in 2010, when Republicans won control of
the House, but 19% in 2012, when Obama won reelection.
Minority
voters were 23% of the 2010 turnout, 28% in the presidential election.
Gaps that
big would almost certainly doom Democratic hopes this year.
A key lesson
from the Obama campaign is to drive GOTV (get out the vote) programs. The GOTV
program canāt wait until October, it has to begin now. The problem is that the
strategy has to be deployed (and funded) state by state, precinct by precinct
in the 21 states where Democratic Senate seats are in play.
How to
reach and engage the low turnout voting blocs is the true issue. Convincing
them that voting will actually lead to an important change in direction for the
country is the key to success. Seth Godin drew a great
distinction about engagement:
roofer and the electrician sell us a cure. They come to our house, fix the
problem, and leave.
The consultant, the
doctorā¦and the politician sell us the narrativeā¦they give us a story, a way to
think about what’s happeningā¦
With those who rarely
vote, picking a venue and getting implicit permission to talk politics is
important. Finding appropriate venues is not as straightforward as schools and
churches were in the old days. Social media affects both venues of choice, and the way the information is
received. GOTV is about unblocking legitimate practical and motivational
issues. And knowing when someone is agreeing just to get you to go away.
Here is
the story the Wrongologist prefers to use:
Republicans are dreamers.
They dreamt of a peaceful democracy in the Middle East, but, paraphrasing
Rumsfeld, you go to the Middle East with the Republicans you have and not with the
ones you need.
- They
dream that Obamacare will destroy the US
- They
dream that anything Hillary does is a scandal
- They
dreamt that Mission Accomplished was real, that the WMD existed
- They
dream that austerity will fix poverty
- They
dream that unemployment is caused by laziness
- They
dream of a constitution written by Jesus
And they dream that
they won’t shoot themselves in the foot before election day. Itās true that one
personās dream is another personās nightmare. So, if Republicans DO win the Senate,
the US will deserve whatever ensues, and it won’t be good, of course.
Unless you’re a
transnational billionaire.