What is Obama’s Ukraine Strategy?

What’s Wrong Today:

On Wednesday, President Putin suggested a peaceful solution in Ukraine:

We think the most important thing now is to launch direct dialogue, genuine, full-fledged dialogue between the Kiev authorities and representatives of southeast Ukraine. This dialogue could give people from southeast Ukraine the chance to see that their lawful rights in Ukraine really will be guaranteed

Sounds good. But Putin goes on to say:

In this context, we appeal too, to representatives of southeast Ukraine and supporters of federalization to hold off the referendum scheduled for May 11, in order to give this dialogue the conditions it needs to have a chance

So, he is saying “postpone all elections” until we talk some more. Note that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has already dismissed calls for a Geneva 2 meeting.

More food for thought: Russia is moving military assets to Crimea for Victory Day. These assets consist of fighter jets, strategic bombers, transport and attack helicopters, paratroopers and SAM batteries.

Putin will attend, so there will be a “no-fly” zone declared for the celebration. A cynic might call this a test run of a Ukrainian “no-fly” zone. Subsequently, Russia could impose a “no-fly” zone on all of Eastern and Southern Ukraine without much warning or preparation.

Those assets could stay in Crimea and be ready for use in the event that the talks break down, or if the referendums go forward and follow the Crimea playbook.

Once it is known that the referendum supports independence, the new republic could immediately request protection from Russia. It is easy to see how that could lead to a Russian “no-fly” zone over Eastern Ukraine. If Kiev cannot control the airspace over Eastern Ukraine, it will be very difficult to win on the ground and avoid a partition of the country.

Mr. Obama and NATO must have game-planned this outcome: Will Russia intervene? What is the logic for a Russian intervention? It is possible that Putin and Angela Merkel have a deal in mind to split the country and avoid a war?

Russia’s Strategy:

Russia is working on driving a wedge between Germany (and the rest of the EU) and the US. Putin is banking on the US escalating sanctions which will cause economic damage to Germany. The harm will be so great that Merkel (or her successor) will distance Germany from the US and move toward Russia.

US Strategy:

The US strategy is to split Russia from the EU. In the long run, that can work, but it will take years just to reduce the EU’s energy dependency on Russia. The US hold on the EU is strong, and the US has cards to play. But first, employing stronger sanctions will cause German unemployment to skyrocket, and much of the EU might freeze one winter, but: “freedom and democracy”!

The WSJ Online reported that the biggest names in German business—including chemical giant BASF, Siemens AG, Volkswagen AG, Adidas AG and Deutsche Bank —have expressed opposition to broader economic sanctions against Russia. As a result, Germany’s position on additional, tougher sanctions is unlikely to shift, barring a dramatic escalation of the conflict in Ukraine—a message Ms. Merkel apparently delivered to Mr. Obama when they met in Washington last Friday.

Germany knows that the US has its back with NATO and it has to spend virtually nothing on its own defense. This allows them to keep doing business with the devil instead of actually standing for something geopolitically. Germany does not want to experience any inconvenience or any sacrifice of its economy.

The big strategic consideration is that Ukraine has the EU’s largest Natural Gas reserves, and they are ready to be fracked. If Ukraine can develop them, it could put a huge dent in Putin’s money machine, and reduce Europe’s dependence on Russia. The gas could start flowing within a year, given political stability. One would think this is a no-brainer, but the Germans and French are not yet trying to get into the game. BTW, there is also lots of frackable Natural Gas east of the Dnieper, where Russia is likely to prevail.

Russia will not invade Ukraine, because it won’t be necessary. The IMF agreements that come with the IMF bailout will be in force. This will lower pension payouts and wages. Fuel prices will have to rise, people are going to be pissed at their own country. Civil war could ensue.

So, Putin’s strategy is to wait.

OK, so what are Obama’s options? Can he wait as well? He knows he can’t be seen to be the loser h
ere. All the rhetoric coming from Washington and the major news outlets is an uncompromising “Russia must stop its ‘provocative’ behavior and accept the coup – that is, Russia must surrender.

There is an American election in November: If Washington does not prevail vs. Russia, Republicans will say Mr. Obama doesn’t have the stuff to make it clear to the world that we will do whatever it takes to enforce our will globally.

This must be Obama’s calculus – Russia folds, or they fight. Then, either way, Obama is a winner. But if Germany has lost the support of its large corporations, Obama has a weak hand indeed.

Given the geography, tactically there isn’t much more that the Administration can do. There will be more sanctions, but absent EU willingness to go further, and given a very disorganized Ukraine that cannot defend itself or pay its own way, Obama is not able to do more than watch Putin and Merkel play out the hand.

Which probably means a partitioned Ukraine, divided by the Dnieper River.

What’s happening in Ukraine is vastly important. It will determine the shape of the blocs facing each other for the next 20 years, and it is playing out right in front of us.

If the US wins the battle for the EU, it probably ensures that China will have Russia’s support and that could have geopolitical ramifications which are difficult to unwind. 

The Ukraine crisis is not a fight for democracy or freedom, but a deadly serious struggle for supremacy and geopolitical influence, with the US and Russia as the major players. Ukraine changes the character of international politics. As the atmosphere turns dark, the task of promoting and maintaining world order grows more daunting.

Future historians will scratch their heads in the same way we do when looking back at the run-up to World War I. Fifty years after Barbara Tuchman’s great book, The Guns of August, it is good to remember that things in the Balkans have a way of spinning out of control.

 

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Exactly ONE Banker Went to Jail

What’s Wrong Today:

Last week, Jesse Eisinger at ProPublica had an article co-published with the NYT Magazine questioning our Department of Justice’s (DOJ) efforts to prosecute bankers for wrongdoing in the 2008 financial crisis. He shows that only one banker went to jail for his actions.

This proves we have a two tier legal system that dovetails nicely with our two tier economic system. The top 1% earn more and also abide by different rules than the rest of us. The banks play by different games, but they are still held by certain standards and terms, for example this current expected credit loss model compliance requirements in 2019.

The only Wall Street “executive” to go to jail for the financial crisis was Kareem Serageldin, the head of a trading desk at Credit Suisse. Serageldin pleaded guilty to holding mortgage-backed securities at artificially high marks in order to minimize reported losses on his trading portfolio.

“High marks” refers to the requirement that banks “mark to market” assets in their portfolios every day. Marking crappy mortgages that had lost much of their original value to market would cause the banks to show higher losses on their loans, and would simultaneously lower the bank’s capital ratios. As James Kwak of the Baseline Scenario says:

Now if that’s a crime, there are a lot of other people who are guilty of it. In fact, a major premise of the federal government’s crisis response strategy was exactly that: allowing banks to keep assets at inflated marks in order to pretend they were solvent when they weren’t…

The Financial Standards Accounting Board (FASB) changed its rules in April 2009 to make it easier for banks to inflate their marks. And the Obama administration’s “homeowner relief program” (HAMP) was really designed to allow banks to delay realizing losses on their mortgage loans by dragging out—but generally not preventing—foreclosures.

This was a deliberate strategy called “foam the runway”.

Dave Dayden quotes Neil Barofsky’s book Bailout about a meeting between Elizabeth Warren (then Head of the Congressional Oversight Panel) who asked (then Treasury Secretary) Timothy Geithner about HAMP. After trying to avoid an answer, Geithner finally said:

We estimate that they [banks] can handle ten million foreclosures, over time
this program will help foam the runway for them

The picture you get isn’t pretty. It’s a picture of the immense resources of the American criminal justice system deployed against bit players, with no consequences for the people responsible for the financial crisis. The judge in Serageldin’s case called his conduct:

a small piece of an overall evil climate within the bank and with many other banks

Why hasn’t the Justice Department tried to convict anyone at a bank with any significant responsibility? What about Standard Chartered, where manually typing over data fields to circumvent money laundering controls was a written procedure? 

Serageldin’s former employer had revised its past financial statements to account for a loss of $2.7 billion that should have been reported. Lehman Brothers, AIG, Citigroup, Countrywide and many others had also admitted that they were in much worse shape than they initially allowed. Merrill Lynch, in particular, announced a loss of nearly $8 billion, three weeks after claiming it was $4.5 billion.

According to Eisinger, there was a change in strategy about pursuing individual prosecutions starting during the Bush administration, when Michael Chertoff initially went hard at companies like Enron’s accounting firm, Arthur Anderson. Anderson closed after its conviction costing nearly 10,000 jobs. Subsequently, the DOJ decided to seek large fines from corporations for wrongdoing rather than put executives in jail. From Eisinger:  

From 2004 to 2012, the Justice Department reached 242 deferred and nonprosecution agreements with corporations, compared with 26 in the previous 12 years, according to a study by David M. Uhlmann, a…law professor at the University of Michigan

So the record is clear, they reached financial settlements in 9 times as many cases in 8 years than they had in the prior 12 years. This occurred in part because of a persistent effort to reduce prosecutorial power:

A Supreme Court ruling allowed sentences to be set below previously determined mandatory minimums (which made executives less likely to “flip”). Another narrowed an often-used legal theory that said employees were guilty of fraud if they deprived their companies of “honest services” (which helped nab Enron’s former CEO, Jeffrey Skilling, among others)

No change was momentous on its own. Indeed, some may have legitimately restored the rights of defendants, but taken together they marked a significant, if almost unnoticed, shift toward the defense.

Then there is the revolving door, which prosecutors and regulators walk through on their career climb up the corporate ladder. Moving from government to Wall Street or the big law firms that serve Wall Street keeps the prosecutions from getting too personal. As James Kwak says:

Basically, everyone is well served by the current arrangement. Prosecutors rack up impressive winning records, the revolving door spins, and the banks continue doing what they do

The erosion of the DOJ’s actual trial skills soon became apparent. In November 2009, the US attorney’s office in Brooklyn lost the first criminal case of the crisis against two Bear Stearns executives accused of misleading investors.

The prosecutors rushed into trial, failing to prepare for the exculpatory emails uncovered by the defense team. After two days, the jury acquitted the two money managers. The fear of losing put a chill on future efforts to prosecute.

Are the bank executives inoculated against lawsuit? Maybe. The prosecution and conviction of global financial institutions and their top executives is believed by the Fed and the Treasury Department to pose systemic risk to the world financial system, so we get spun, and the DOJ asks the banks for fines, not scalps.

All of this has made American banks view the rules of the game the same way that they look at rules in football. There is a rule in football against offensive holding. But nobody considers holding to be cheating, because holding comes with a penalty which is assessed as part of the game:

  • It is the offensive lineman’s job to open holes for runners and to protect the quarterback
  • It is the referee’s job to observe infractions of the rules and to assess the stipulated penalties

So holding in football is a part of the game which carries a certain risk. The lineman rolls the dice and holds if the situation seems to demand it, and attempts not to get caught, but nobody considers this cheating.

When Wall Street bankers are arrested, they do what is known in finance as an expected-value analysis: They weigh the cost of fighting, how long it would take and the chances of the best and worst outcomes. And they consider the fines to be just a cost of doing business.

How apparent does the death of the rule of law have to become before the little people catch on? Meanwhile, the “little” taxpayers fund these regulatory agencies whose primary purpose is to provide cover for executives involved in corporate criminal enterprises.

The Divide by Matt Taibbi details how the high-income investment banker types pay a fine, admit no personal wrong-doing, and walk away to do it again. It is worth your time and money.

Our society has become really good at punishing the little guy (sometimes for nothing at all) and abysmal at taking on the big fish who are perpetrating economic crimes against society.

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Sunday Cartoon Blogging – May 4, 2014

“The two greatest obstacles to democracy in the United States are, first, the widespread delusion among the poor that we have a democracy, and second, the chronic terror among the rich, lest we get it”Edward Dowling

Wealth disparity, a subject we used to not talk about, is now being talked about because of Thomas Picketty and his book, Capital in the 21st Century. The subject was ignored, mostly on purpose, for decades while the cash piled up, much of it offshore. That wonderful outcome was aided and abetted by US bankers and tax lawyers:

If millionaires in the United States formed their own political party, that party would make up just 3% of the country, but it would have a majority in the House of Representatives, a filibuster-proof super-majority in the Senate, a 5-4 majority on the Supreme Court and a man in the White House

After the dust cleared from the Great Recession, we finally saw that the rich had built themselves an impregnable fortress. The rich, and the Congress members they bought and paid for, now lecture the rest of us on how to create jobs, how to cut the deficit and how to get along on a $7.25 minimum wage.

Congress says wages of little people are just enough:

And now they want us to thank them for their concern by electing Republicans to majorities in both Houses of Congress:

Of course, not everyone will have an easy time voting:

But the little people better pay their taxes. We need their money to project power around the world. Well, maybe not in Ukraine.
There is a joke in Latin America: “Why has the USA never had a regime change? Because it doesn’t have an American embassy.”

Europe seems cool with feeding the Bear:

Justice John Roberts spreads the word; some Americans hear the message:


The NBA has a much better understanding of our world than the Supremes:


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America’s Misadventure in Afghanistan

What’s
Wrong Today
:


As of April
21, the Afghan war had cost 2,314 Americans their lives and wounded 19,701. It
is very early for a complete debrief, but the press has started offering
several under-reported stories for Americans to think about.


First, the
revisionist history has started. According to Andrew Peek at the Fiscal
Times
:


America
is creaking towards an ugly win in Afghanistan. With the growth of the Afghan Local Police (ALP) program and the currently successful
presidential elections, we’re finally creating something…Historical
Afghanistan might be ugly; but an ugly win is still a win


Win?
Where’s the win? As soon as we leave, the place will go back to where it was.
All that is visible today is a near-trillion dollar expenditure, with limited
benefit to Americans.


Second, we are beginning to see
in-depth studies of what went wrong in Afghanistan. Neil Gordon, of the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) reports on just how concentrated US funding
of Afghan reconstruction projects was. Nearly 90% percent of State Department’s
reconstruction funding—$3.5 billion—was obligated in 55 contracts awarded to just
19 recipients. The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction
(SIGAR) found that, between the beginning of fiscal year 2002 and
March 2013, more than two-thirds of the money ($2.8 billion, or 69%) will go to
just one company—DynCorp.


Readers may
be familiar with DynCorp
International
’s colorful history in Afghanistan,
which includes instances of labor smuggling, weak performance and overpayments on a base support services
contract, botched construction work on an Afghan Army garrison, and lawsuits filed by disgruntled
subcontractors
.


The second
largest contract recipient is PAE Government Services, which received 15% of
all State Department reconstruction funds. PAE was a subsidiary of Lockheed
Martin
until 2011. It
had issues as well:


Last
year, former PAE program manager Keith Johnson and his wife, Angela Johnson, pleaded guilty to conspiring to defraud the
military on vehicle parts purchases in Afghanistan in 2007 and 2008. The
Johnsons were sentenced to
prison
and ordered
to pay $2 million for operating a scheme in which Keith steered millions of
dollars in orders to a shell company operated by Angela and to subcontractors who
provided kickbacks in return


The law
requires the federal government to award contracts only to responsible vendors—those with satisfactory
records of past performance, integrity, and business ethics. Do these contractors sound like they should
be qualified to you?


There
should have been an outcry in Congress. Why no outcry? Follow the money!


Third, Bloomberg just got its hands on a previously undisclosed Pentagon study
that says in part that the US government:


created
an environment that fostered corruption in Afghanistan by supporting warlords,
relying on private trucking contracts and providing billions of dollars in aid


The details
are surprising. Analysts for the US Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a 65-page
assessment dated Feb. 28 that:


Corruption
directly threatens the viability and legitimacy of the Afghan state after a ‘large-scale
culture of impunity’ took hold…American forces dependent on Afghanistan-based
trucking companies found themselves trapped in a warlord protection racket


The
Pentagon analysts found that the US coalition “was slow to understand the
integrated and pervasive threat corruption posed” to their mission:


The
necessary preconditions for combating corruption did not exist due to delayed
understanding of Afghan corruption, decreasing levels of physical security,
lack of political will on the part of both the international community and the
Afghan government and a lack of popular pressure


The assessment
found that the initial US focus in late 2001 on defeating the Taliban and Al-Qaeda “created mutually dependent relationships” that “empowered” warlords,
and “expanded their [warlords] opportunities for financial gain and impeded
later” efforts to counter corruption:


Once
ensconced within ministries and other government posts, Northern Alliance
warlords that the CIA and US military Special Forces teams came to depend on
often ‘used their positions to divert’ government resources, sometimes transforming
them into what came to be known as ‘criminal patronage networks.’


The
widespread use of Afghan trucking companies, which employed security
contractors, became a primary engine of corruption, according to the report:


Many
of the private security companies were of a dubious nature and were paid
protection money, the analysts said. In 2010 alone, the US awarded $2.16
billion to eight Afghan trucking companies that ‘exercised weak oversight”.

By
the time US commanders realized the deleterious effect of this arrangement and
attempted to take corrective action against highway warlords and trucking
companies, they were so well entrenched that any imposed sanctions would have
significantly impeded US logistics


Bloomberg
speculates that once the report is released, it might undercut any remaining
support by Congress and taxpayers for the diminished mission. The war has cost
the US more than $710 billion since 2001, according to the National Priorities
Project, which studies federal spending.


The report’s
money quote may be that the US federal
acquisition system is “more suitable to Peoria than Kabul”
. Gee whiz.
Modern nation state meets feudalism; fails at playing feudal lord.


For the US
government to say that it was unaware of the extent of corruption in Afghanistan
is startling. If any of them had bothered to read the history of Afghanistan,
they should not have been surprised.


What an
affront to the intelligence of American citizens.


Finally,
the Fiscal
Times
reports
that the US has spent $7.5 billion on counter-narcotic programs in Afghanistan.
The result? Record high opium-poppy
production. A report to Congress by the Special Inspector General
for Afghanistan Reconstruction detailed figures from the United Nations Office
of Drugs and Crime estimating that opium-poppy cultivation in Afghanistan this
year will reach an all-time high, jumping up 36% from just two years ago:


On
the decline are seizures of opium and heroin in Afghanistan from 2011 to 2013,
the report said. The amount seized was equal to about 1% of annual opium
production


Afghanistan
produces about 75% of the world’s opium, which is estimated to account for 4%
of the country’s GDP. That share of GDP climbs to 14%, factoring exports such
as heroin and morphine. Nice work! We got the exact opposite of what we thought
we were paying for.


Americans should
be saying: “I’m mad
as hell, and I’m not gonna take this anymore”
.

Then they need to ask: All that money spent in Afghanistan,
and for what
?

If Americans aren’t distracted by missing planes and racist team owners, they
might also want to focus on questions like:

  • Why
    aren’t our bridges getting replaced?
  • What
    happened to the money to fund our schools?
  • Why
    are returning Afghan veterans begging on street corners?
  • Why
    are there empty houses down the block?
  • Why
    can’t their son or daughter get a job and move out?
  • Why
    can’t they retire?

Has anyone
actually seen their congressperson lately? Why is he/she running the same ads
he/she ran two or four years ago?


Then they
need to ask themselves: How will I make a difference in all of this?

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Why Can’t America Have Apprenticeships?

What’s
Wrong Today
:


It’s May
Day in the US, May Day was celebrated by early European settlers. International Workers’ Day began in the
US as a commemoration of the Haymarket Massacre of 1886 in Chicago. After the
1917 workers’ revolution in Russia, May Day
became a widely celebrated holiday in industrial areas of the US.


So, with
workers on today’s radar, it is appropriate we continue yesterday’s discussion of how low-wage jobs are driving
our recovery from the jobs lost in the Great Recession. Reader Linda S. called
out an article in the Wall
Street Journal
about the decline in apprenticeships available from US
corporations. From the WSJ:


According
to the Labor Department, formal programs that combine on-the-job learning with
mentorships and classroom education fell 40% in the US between 2003 and 2013


Here is a WSJ chart that describes the current apprenticeship
situation:



Most of us
are unaware that there is a National Apprenticeship Act that was passed in 1937, an earlier
poor economic environment. It is administered by the Department
of Labor
(DOL), and
establishes minimum standards for apprenticeship programs. The Act was later
amended to permit the DOL to issue regulations protecting the health, safety
and general welfare of apprentices, and to encourage the use of contracts in
the hiring and employment of them. Subsequently, additional regulations banning
racial, ethnic, religious, age and gender discrimination in apprenticeship
programs became part of the Act.


Earlier
this month, President Obama set aside $100 million to go toward apprenticeships
in high-growth industries, and recognized a few new programs in health care,
information technology and supply-chain management. Whilst in the UK people can get cips level 4 apprenticeships, this is at least a start towards diverifying the options over here in the States.


So, with
government assistance and oversight, why are these programs declining in usage?


Perhaps the
biggest obstacle is that two-thirds of
apprenticeship programs in the US are in the construction industry
, and
jobs in construction have just not recovered:



Construction
jobs are down by 1.2 million since the start of the Great Recession.


Apprenticeships
involve more industries than the handful of trades that embraced the
earn-and-learn model that began in 1937: Wastewater technicians and
computer-system administrators are among the positions for which apprentices
can now train.

Another damper is a widely held view that young people should
stay in school and then get a job. Advocates of apprenticeships say this
thinking is misguided. The WSJ quotes
Brad Neese, director of Apprenticeship
Carolina
, a program of the South Carolina Technical College System:
(brackets by the Wrongologist)


College
degrees and internships don’t produce the same quality of worker as intensive, on-the-job
apprenticeships…[Employers are seeing] a real lack of applicability in terms of
skill level from college graduates…Interns do grunt work, generally
[while] an apprenticeship is a real job


South
Carolina has had great success increasing the number of apprenticeships.  The number of SC businesses offering
apprenticeships has grown from 90 in 2007 to 647 today. Some 4,700 people who
trained in South Carolina’s apprentice program are now fully employed. To get
employers involved, the state offers a $1,000 annual tax credit for each
apprentice on the payroll. More from Mr. Neese:


That
helps open the door…For a small business, the credit can wipe out the
education costs for an apprentice program. We’ve tried to make the tax credit
as user-friendly as possible…We have a very simple one-page form that
literally says, ‘How many apprentices do you have?’ and then you multiply that
number by $1,000


Apprenticeships
are very much alive in the professions, we just call them something else. What
is a MD’s residency but an apprenticeship? (albeit paid for by Medicare) Accounting and Law work the same
way, you leave school and work like a slave for a few years in exchange for paying
tuition (in the form of longer hours and lower wages) while getting real world skills.


Universal
acceptance of apprenticeships in corporate America is not an easy problem to
resolve. Our current educational system poorly serves the need for skilled
workers. Schools regularly push their students (especially the
“smart” ones) towards college education and many parents, perhaps
unaware of other options, go along with this line of thinking.


The
desire by parents for their kids to have a gradual “socialization” experience by attending college, is likely another contributing factor.
The other side of the problem is that companies are often reluctant to offer
apprenticeship programs because they fear (often with good reason) that the graduates
of such programs will be quickly “poached” by other companies who do
not offer training programs. (See our High Tech Collusion column which describes the
prevalence of “no-poaching” agreements in Silicon Valley.) 

Germany’s success, as the chart above shows, might be a model for US apprenticeships.
Their strategy, apart from producing skilled workers, also provides options for
further education. In that system, a skilled toolmaker can go on to earn a
doctorate in engineering. The political and social structure required by such a
system would probably not be welcomed in the US as it would involve interlocking arrangements between government
industrial policy and corporate strategy
, which US conservatives would
label as “excessive interference” in markets or, as “socialist”.


Thirty
years ago, throughout the US, it was quite typical for a company to pick up
tuition costs for part-time attendance at major public or private universities
or at community colleges, provided that the courses were work-related and part
of a technical degree program.


As soon as corporate America sold the
concept of H1B visas to Congress that policy started to evaporate. Many
American companies don’t train their workers (so much) anymore. Most of those
companies treat employees as disposable assets and focus more on short-term profits
than building skill sets and loyalty by their employees.


Our industries would work better if
more schools offered technical courses for interested students. In past years,
students in industrial schools completed their apprenticeship while in high school.
That allowed them to enter the working world as journeymen, able to earn a good
living.


And despite
what corporate America says they want, there’s NO such thing as finding the
“ideal” employee, one that is young, without unreasonable salary demands, but
with a complete skills set.


That is unrealistic,
just like searching for the “ideal boss”.

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Economy Lost More High Wage Jobs Than It Gained

What’s Wrong Today:

The news today comes in two flavors. Bad and awful. Some of you probably saw Sunday’s New York Times article By Annie Lowrey in which she quotes from a National Employment Law Project (NELP) study. The study showed that in the last recession, the economy lost more higher wage jobs than it has gained since then, and it has created more low wage jobs than it had previously lost.

The study found especially strong growth in restaurants and food services, administrative and waste services and retail trades. Those industries — which often pay wages at the federal minimum — accounted for about 40% of the increase in private sector employment over the past four years.

In essence, America’s economy has replaced good jobs with bad ones:

HIGHER WAGE INDUSTRIES (median wage $20.03-$32.62)


Jobs lost January 2008 to February 2010: 3.579 million
Jobs gained February 2010 to February 2014: 2.603 million

Difference: -976,000

MID-WAGE INDUSTRIES (median wage $13.73-$20.00)

Jobs lost January 2008 to February 2010: 3.240 million
Jobs gained February 2010 to February 2014: 2.282 million

Difference: -958,000

LOWER-WAGE INDUSTRIES (median wage $9.48-$13.33)

Jobs lost January 2008 to February 2010: 1.973 million
Jobs gained February 2010 to February 2014: 3.284 million

Difference: +1.851 million

That’s the merely bad news. The awful news is that this is how we have finally regained all of the jobs lost in the recession that began in 2007.

The next day, the Times published a rebuttal by Justin Wolfers:

Although I’m sympathetic to the idea of tracking whether the recovery is generating high- or low-paid jobs, data on employment growth by industry provide a poor proxy. There are many highly paid managers working in the low-paid retail trade sector, just as there are many low-paid janitors working in the high-paid professional services sector

Sure. Mr. Wolfers must be a charter member of the Society of Apologists for Plutocrats (SAPs).

Retail employed 15.26 million people (seasonally adjusted) last month. 13.049 million retail jobs were non-management (production and non-supervisory). For those keeping score, that is 85.5% of retail jobs. Those jobs averaged 29.9 hours/week, down a half-hour from a year ago and pay an average of $14.26/hour. That’s a yearly income of less than $22,000. Most jobs in retail are not in management. And most of those working in retail are going to earn less than the poverty level for a family of 4 in the US.

The larger point is that, using the NELP study, 22.4% of the jobs lost in the 2007 recession were in the lower-wage category, but 43.9% of those created since then are lower wage. This trend must be seen not just against the backdrop of the deteriorating quality of American jobs but the country’s growing inequality.

It is clear that hard work and integrity are no longer guarantees of upward mobility in America. We could easily see a corrosive class envy coming to a boil. Here is an illustration of the point:

It’s clear that the top 10%–the class of finance guys, hedge fund managers, technocrats, professionals, and entrepreneurs, have managed to increase their wealth in the past 20 years, while the 90% have just been treading water. A household income of $150,000 a year qualifies as a top 10% income.

Breaking out of the bottom 90% has become only a dream for the average person.

If recent college grads can only find jobs in retail, hospitality and food service, or underpaid/unpaid internships just to cling on to their “dream career”, how can we expect them to get married, purchase a home, purchase a car, purchase the goods and services that will sustain our economy’s fragile recovery?

We are in the late stages of the recovery from the Great Recession. There is a good ch
ance that that the “job creators” will do nothing that brings about any change to the current crapification of our economy.

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Out With the Old, In With the New

There has been no blogging since Sunday, as the Wrongologist has been upgrading his computer system. Restoration of data is now complete, and aside from the occasional misplaced file, we are able to begin blogging tomorrow.

We are unlikely to mention LA’s Donald Sterling, but you already know what you think about that hot, steaming pile of wrong.

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Sunday Cartoon Blogging – April 27, 2014

All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence, and then success is sure” – Mark Twain

“I never listen to debates. They are dreadful things indeed. The plain truth is that I am not a fair man, and don’t want to hear both sides. On all known subjects, ranging from aviation to xylophone-playing, I have fixed and invariable ideas. They have not changed since I was four or five” – HL Mencken

These quotes apply to two people in the news this week who look ignorant even if they are not. Chief Justice John Roberts is clearly a follower of Mencken. The Chief says” “The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race”:

Here is what Justice Sotomayor said in her dissent:

“The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to speak openly and candidly on the subject of race, and to apply the Constitution with eyes open to the unfortunate effects of centuries of racial discrimination. As members of the judiciary tasked with intervening to carry out the guarantee of equal protection, we ought not sit back and wish away, rather than confront, the racial inequality that exists in our society.”

Then we have Cliven Bundy, who demonstrates Twain’s quote perfectly. He justifies his 20-year refusal to pay the Bureau of Land Management for grazing rights on the public land where he runs his cattle by claiming his ancestors gained livestock water rights in the 1870s:

Not true. KLAS, the Las Vegas CBS affiliate checked out the Bundy family’s history with that land. Although Bundy says water rights were handed down to him, records show that Bundy’s ranch was not purchased by his family in 1948. In 1998, a federal judge ruled that whatever inherited rights Bundy claimed were specious since the Bundys did not even begin grazing on the (then) public lands until 1954. The judge said Bundy should be barred from grazing his cattle on federal range land until he paid his fees to the BLM, just like everybody else.

Bundy sees things differently. He believes he has some special inherited right that cannot be proven in court. Therefore, he does not accept that the US government has any legal authority over Nevada.

And in other news, more followers of HL Mencken showed their colors, starting with the FCC:

The FCC’s idea of a level playing field:

News about Obamacare not good for Republicans:

Plutocrats say there is a ladder of opportunity for everyone:

 

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FCC in the Tank for Industry It Regulates

What’s Wrong Today:

The principle that all Internet content should be treated equally as it flows through cables and pipes to consumers (called net neutrality) looks all but dead. From the NYT:

The Federal Communications Commission said on Wednesday that it would propose new rules that allow companies like Disney, Google or Netflix to pay Internet service providers like Comcast and Verizon for special, faster lanes to send video and other content to their customers

These proposed changes end net neutrality — the idea that no providers of legal Internet content should face discrimination in providing offerings to consumers, and that users should have equal access to see any legal content they choose.

Today consumers can pay Internet service providers for a higher-speed Internet connection, but at whatever speed they choose, under the new FCC rules, they might get some content faster, depending on how much the content provider has paid the service provider.

Tim Wu at the New Yorker offered some insight: (emphasis by the Wrongologist)

With broadband, there is no such thing as accelerating some traffic without degrading other traffic. We take it for granted that bloggers, start-ups, or nonprofits on an open Internet reach their audiences roughly the same way as everyone else. Now they won’t. They’ll be behind in the queue, watching as companies that can pay tolls to the cable companies’ speed ahead

The new rule gives broadband providers what they’ve wanted for about a decade: the right to speed up some traffic at the expense of others. The motivation is not complicated. The broadband carriers want to make more money for doing what they already do. Never mind that American carriers already charge some of the world’s highest prices for a service that costs less than $5/month to provide. To get cheap broadband that actually delivers, you could take a look at HTTPS://WWW.EATEL.COM/ for some of the best plans on the market.

It is troubling that the FCC is caving in only three months after a federal appeals court struck down agency rules intended to guarantee a free and open Internet. After all, it was in January, in response to the court decision that Tom Wheeler, FCC Chair, said: (emphasis by the Wrongologist)

We will consider all available options
including those for appeal, to ensure that these networks on which the Internet depends continue to provide a free and open platform for innovation and expression, and operate in the interest of all Americans

So, Mr. Wheeler changed his mind. Why? Jan Brodkin of Ars Technica speculates that the revolving door at the FCC may help explain it:

Tom Wheeler, the current chair of the FCC, has previously been the CEO of the industry organizations for both the cellular industry (CTIA) and the cable industry (NCTA). The NCTA is currently headed by Michael Powell, a former chair of the FCC

He also outlines the career of Meredith Baker: (brackets by the Wrongologist)

The CTIA [cell phone industry] announced that its next CEO will be Meredith Attwell Baker. Her résumé goes like this: lobbyist for the CTIA; lobbying firms; National Telecommunications and Information Administration (part of the Department of Commerce), where she sided with Comcast against the FCC; FCC commissioner who voted for the Comcast-NBC merger; head lobbyist for the NBC division of Comcast; and now CEO of the CTIA

Here is a graphic illustration of the revolving door at the FCC:

The history of regulation is that large firms in an industry buy politicians and use them to extract rents, raise barriers to entry, erect tariff barriers, and do other things to pad their bottom lines. Most of the time, the sales window is open and everyone just looks the other way. Who got bought? The man who appointed Mr. Wheeler in 2013 will never again run for reelection.

Big business groups like to say that they are against regulation because of free market, big government, economic efficiency, consumer choice, blah, blah, blah.

The need to pay access fees for faster service will make it harder for new entrants on the content and services side; in the long run, paying these fees will be good for Netflix, since it won’t have to worry as much about competition. The ultimate result will be to lock in the current set of incumbents that control the Internet, ushering in the era of big, fat, incompetent monopolies.

This is another case where the regulators support the regulated, the corporatists and the pl
utocrats.

In case you haven’t noticed, there is a war going on. Small businesses and individuals with less than multimillion dollar bank accounts are in the cross-hairs. The average American must pay for and account for every little thing we do, while the mega corporations are able to make what are for them, small payments to big lawyers and accountants to limit access for the rest of us.

All while avoiding paying their fair share of taxes.

The whole money-politics-power crowd has deployed a well-oiled model of how political corruption actually works.

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Power is Capital, Capital is Power

What’s
Wrong Today
:


“The struggle of man against
power is the struggle of memory against forgetting”
– Milan Kundera


Yesterday was the 100th anniversary of the Ludlow Massacre. The Massacre was the result of a strike against the Colorado Fuel & Iron Company (CF&I),
owned by John
D. Rockefeller, Jr
., the Rocky Mountain Fuel Company (RMF), and
the Victor-American Fuel Company (VAF).


The strike
resulted in the violent deaths of at least 19 people; reported death tolls vary,
but included two women and eleven children, asphyxiated and burned to death in a
tent that passed for a home. The deaths occurred after a day-long fight between striking
workers and a private militia hired by Rockefeller. The face-off raged on for
14 hours, during which the miners’ tent colony came under machine gun fire. The
tents were ultimately torched by the militia.


According
to the Lawyersgunsandmoney
blog:


The miners were
also well-armed (both to protect themselves against the strikebreakers and to
protect their jobs from scabs) [and] fought back bravely, but could not match
the machine guns of the CF&I forces. That evening, a train conductor
stopped his train between the strikers and the private army, allowing most of
the residents to escape into the nearby hills


Rockefeller
was widely blamed by the public for the deaths. The strike was organized by the
United Mine Workers of America
(UMWA) against coal mining companies in Colorado.


In
retaliation for Ludlow, armed miners attacked dozens of mines over the next ten
days, engaging in several skirmishes with the Colorado National Guard. Estimates
vary, but the entire conflict cost between 69 and 199 lives. It has been
described as the deadliest strike in the history of the US.


The Ludlow
Massacre was a watershed moment in American labor relations. Howard Zinn
in The
Politics of History
described the Ludlow Massacre as:


the culminating act
of perhaps the most violent struggle between corporate power and laboring men
in American history


The Ludlow
Massacre quickly evolved into a national rallying cry for labor unions and
eventually helped lead to New Deal labor reforms. But over the years, the
tragedy in Ludlow Colorado has been largely forgotten.


It may seem like ancient history, but in 1913, workers were not
paid for traveling into the mines, shoring up the mine ceilings, or fixing
tools. Many died in mine cave-ins or from disease. Workers lived in
company towns. Moreover, company housing meant that CF&I agents could enter
your home at any time, you had to shop at the company store using company
scrip, and company thugs ruled the camp, firing anyone associated with
unionism.


The United
Mine Workers of America had organized the workers in southern Colorado
throughout the early 1910s, despite significant efforts at repression. The workforce
was comprised of large numbers of Greeks, Mexicans, and Italians, a practice which discouraged communication that might lead to organization.


In 1913,
the union presented their demands to CF&I for basic working and human
rights, including an 8-hour day, the right to choose their own homes and
doctors, a pay raise, and enforcement of mine safety laws to CF&I. The
company rejected them out of hand, and the miners went on strike, and the
Massacre was the result.


The Ludlow Massacre
occurred at the end of the Gilded
Age
, a period spanning the final three decades of the nineteenth
century
; from the 1870s to 1900. The term comes from a book by Mark Twain, The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today,
satirizing what he believed to be an
era of serious social problems disguised by a thin gilding of gold
.


Consider what John
D. Rockefeller Jr. said
to his Colorado miners in 1915 after the anger over the Massacre had died down: (emphasis
by the Wrongologist)


We are all partners
in a way. Capital can’t get along without you men, and you men can’t get along
without capital. When anybody comes
along and tells you that capital and labor can’t get along together, that man
is your worst enemy
. We are getting along friendly enough here in this mine
right now, and there is no reason why you men cannot get along with the
managers of my company when I am back in New York


There
you have it, another shining example of capitalist benevolence in action.
Despite the paternalism, every worker right and benefit we have was
literally bought with the blood of union men and women fighting tooth and nail
against overwhelming odds to win them and often dying in the process.


And you
know when private companies stopped killing the strikers? When FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT troops (ordered by President Wilson) stepped in. In the libertarian wet dream world of
Rand Paul and the Koch Brothers, we would be back to 12 hour days, 6 days a
week.


We
could argue whether or not a different approach in the 1870s would have been
better, but in today’s world, the massing of capital that has occurred among multinational
corporations can only be balanced by strong government power, provided that
politicians are willing to use that power. Shrinking government can only be in
the interest of the average citizen if the power of massed capital is reduced to
a point that it is less than the power of government to control it.


In March, the Wrongologist alerted
readers to Thomas Piketty’s book Capitalism
in the 21st Century
. Paul Krugman, in his review of Piketty’s book for the NY
Review of Books
said:  


The
big idea of Capital in the Twenty-First Century is that we haven’t just
gone back to nineteenth-century levels of income inequality, we’re also on a
path back to “patrimonial capitalism,” in which the commanding heights of the
economy are controlled not by talented individuals but by family dynasties


A
rising level of capital to total wealth concentrates power, because ownership of capital is always
much more unequally distributed than labor income
.


We
have come full circle, entering another “Gilded Age”. The plutocrats, corporatists
and corporations argue for the primacy of capital over people, and many, many of our politicians
support that call.


If politics is about power, then the
powerful will have the advantage. We will see an endless loop of the more
powerful crushing the less powerful, with any
change in the power balance just a random fluke, like what happened after Ludlow catalyzed
real change
.


If politics can be about policy,
then truth has an advantage, and progress can happen.

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