Category: Anger in Politics

Democratic Party Messaging

The Daily Escape:

Pikes Peak, Colorado Springs, CO – December 2024 photo by Monica Breckenridge.

The Democrats are meeting this week to decide on who will lead them into the 2026 midterms and the 2028 general election. Wrongo thinks it’s time for a revolution.

The key question is how do Democrats go back to winning presidential elections? And it may not be the way you think. From Jon V. Last:

“Since Trump’s emergence in 2016 the opposition has responded by acting as if it were still 2015. The Biden administration pursued a vigorous, bipartisan agenda filled with popular legislation designed to promote economic growth across the board. Biden spent money on infrastructure and manufacturing—much of it in red states and rural areas where Democrats had little support.

The Biden administration’s theory was that by governing from the center and focusing on employment and economic growth, Democrats could retain the support of the majority….”

But that theory didn’t work, and Trump won, running on zero ideas about growth, prosperity, or progress. His campaign was posited on the infliction of pain to outsiders. Trump didn’t promise to improve the lives of his voters. He promised to punish the people his voters wanted to hurt. That was the entirety of his electoral proposition, and none of it was subtext. Instead it was bold-face, ALL CAPS text.

Last says it worked because America has changed and the majority of voters are no longer motivated by wanting progress for themselves. Instead they’re motivated primarily by anger that out-groups—the people they do not like—might be succeeding or getting benefits they’re not getting.

If this is true, and at least some evidence suggests it is, how do Democrats persuade voters not to be quite so angry and to vote for them?  From Brian Beutler: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“…winning the next election will require Democrats to persuade some as-yet unpersuaded voters that they’re worth voting for. Whatever policies Democrats think are popular, whatever affects they associate with normalness and affability, if they can’t do the delicate work of changing a mind, they can’t get anywhere.”

More:

“Democrats are about to have as little power as they’ve had at any time in the past two decades for a simple reason: Most Americans weren’t convinced that they’d be better off under Democratic rule. That’s it. And there’s no shortcut back to power that avoids the difficult task of convincing people to change their minds.”

More: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“The Democrats need more and better communicators, and, crucially, it needs the people who don’t understand their potential to influence conventional wisdom and public opinion to get with the times. Most persuasion doesn’t happen person to person, it is mediated. When it does happen person to person, it is most often between people who already know each other, and usually one of those people is regurgitating ideas they picked up….And the ripest targets are no longer classic swing voters who are happy to talk politics with strangers….”

Couple all of this with the problem of where people get their news, and you have Dems digging out of a ditch partially of their own making. What Democrats are missing more than anything is creative thinking about how to reach people who will never answer a telephone call from a number they don’t recognize, never answer the door for a canvasser, and never form lasting political beliefs by watching or reading professional newscasts (because they rarely, if ever do).

This time around, Democrats either need their leaders to adapt, or else they need new leaders.

Jon Last thinks what will win votes in this environment is a lefty demagogue akin to what Bernie Sanders has been selling for years with his “millionaires and billionaires” rants. Sanders’s pitches resonated with younger voters. He got quite a lot of traction in 2016, but Democratic Party primary voters were not ready for him.

Who should the Dems support to lead them into the next round of elections? It should be a group of people in the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s. And thank God there is at least some movement among “younger” Democrats on the Hill to challenge the party’s gerontocracy.

Billy Ray is a screenwriter. His Captain Phillips screenplay earned him an Oscar nomination. He thinks the Democrats’ storytelling ought to start with:

“Whoever is going to be our next presidential candidate needs to look to the American people and say, ‘You matter. Not me, not Trump. You matter. You matter to your family, you matter to your community, you matter to your country,’” he adds. “‘You matter to our collective future, and you matter to me. And what I’m going to do for the next four years is just work for working families. I’m going to do the things that made the Democratic Party your party for so long.’”

Working families. Who among the Democrats out there can build on and carry this message home?

Evolve or Die, Dems.

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Hunter’s Pardon

The Daily Escape:

Eastham, MA mirror image, October 2024 photo by Bo Ericsson

Why are the media and the GOP so shocked and appalled at Hunter Biden’s pardon? It’s been called “the most consequential since Nixon”. Hunter was set to be sentenced and (probably) jailed this week. The seriousness of his likely sentence was disproportionately severe, largely because he was Joe Biden’s son.

Hunter lied on a form about being on drugs and he paid his taxes late. He entered into a plea deal in which he would admit guilt and get probation, a fair sentence. But the judge and the prosecution blew it up in court. He could have faced years in jail for crimes that someone not named Biden and who hadn’t also committed more serious crimes, would have ever been prosecuted.

On June 6, President Biden announced he would not pardon Hunter or commute any sentence he might receive for his gun-related conviction.

The President’s announcement in June was disappointing. While it was clear that felonies had been committed, the prosecution of Biden seemed motivated by something other than the pursuit of justice. And Hunter Biden was a recovering addict. His crimes, by his own admission, were the byproduct of his drug and alcohol abuse.

Biden has now pardoned Hunter and that was the right thing to do, because they brought the charges against Hunter to break Biden. As Biden said in the pardon statement:

“No reasonable person who looks at the facts of Hunter’s cases can reach any other conclusion than Hunter was singled out only because he is my son – and that is wrong. There has been an effort to break Hunter – who has been five and a half years sober, even in the face of unrelenting attacks and selective prosecution. In trying to break Hunter, they’ve tried to break me – and there’s no reason to believe it will stop here. Enough is enough.”

The media and the GOP have reacted strongly.

On the one hand, people are concerned about a president issuing an unprecedented pardon for his child. But against the orgy of Trump pardons of family, friends, and advisers, Biden’s pardon of his son on minor charges pursued for political purposes seems like small potatoes to Wrongo. Biden’s reasons for pardoning his son are understandable. But Biden’s decision could be a precedent for future pardons—by presidents with flimsy or corrupt reasons for pardoning family members.

On the other hand, people have expressed the belief the Joe Biden did the right thing. Wrongo comes down closer to that side of that equation. The pardon process is supposed to be used to do justice. And this is justice. Hunter Biden would likely not have been charged on the facts if he was anyone else.

Biden exercised the pardon power; he hasn’t tried to pardon himself. He issued a pardon he was entitled to give. But it is a departure since he’s been so careful to avoid even the appearance of impropriety and said he would not pardon his son, to reverse course. That is reason to pause and reflect on this pardon.

Bill Clinton pardoned his brother, Roger, after he completed a sentence for trafficking cocaine.

Will pardoning Hunter “embolden” Trump to break more norms? No, he will break them anyway. Trump didn’t need any excuse to pardon his henchmen. He’s already pardoned Steve Bannon, Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn, Roger Stone and Jared Kushner’s father whom he just named to be the Ambassador to France! He’s pardoned Dinesh D’Souza and Joe Arpaio! A list of friends, allies and family.

It’s nonsense to think that pardoning Hunter changes anything when it comes to Trump.

Until the media uses the same yardstick to measure the actions by Biden against the actions by Trump, Wrongo is cheering for Joe. Trump’s actions are treated as somehow acceptable while incumbent GOP-ers clutch their pearls, or taking umbrage, at Biden. Democrats are being held to a totally different standard. It’s journalistic hypocrisy at its finest. And it does not serve democracy or America.

This ISN’T a two wrongs make a right situation. That Hunter Biden is not an admirable person in general has exactly nothing to do with any of this.

Let’s compare and contrast:

  • Hunter Biden was prosecuted mostly because his father is POTUS, and for actions that nobody else is ever been criminally prosecuted for. His plea bargain was rejected only because his father is POTUS. That is the very definition of political persecution.
  • OTOH, Trump was charged with extremely serious crimes: theft of secret documents and a failed coup d’etat are the most serious crimes anybody can commit against the body politic. And he is the only person to have been so charged, because no one else has ever committed such crimes.
  • Charging him wasn’t political persecution, despite Trump’s moaning that it was. While the Republicans spent the last six years trying to make Hunter a political albatross for Biden.

While Trump “whataboutism” is an exhausting game, the hypocrisy of the Republicans and the double standard of the media is galling. Those who supported Trump’s pardons of his political cronies for crimes that involved his own campaign, should have no critique of Biden’s pardon.

The Dems have to stop being the pearl clutching Party. Most voters do not care about Hunter Biden. We should remain on the high moral ground, and firmly assert and argue that the Biden pardon of his son was the moral thing to do despite the hand wringing from the press and others.

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Trump’s Blue State Rallies

The Daily Escape:

We’re now in the homestretch of the presidential campaign, but in an unorthodox move, Trump plans on holding rallies in New York, Illinois, Colorado, and California, all of which are locks to vote for Harris. Biden won those states by an average of 20 points in 2020, with his 13-point Colorado win the closest margin. Colorado is the only one of those states to vote for a Republican nominee for president this millennium, backing George W. Bush in 2004.

Trump will still be spending most of his political advertising funds in the handful of battleground states where the races appear extremely tight, but the expectation is that the media will dutifully cover these rallies, giving him free publicity since it’s unusual to campaign where you don’t expect to win.

In the case of New York, Trump apparently will hold a rally in Madison Square Garden (MSG). The New York Post first reported that the event will take place Oct. 27, a little more than a week before Election Day. Why rallies in Blue states? Trump’s idea is to campaign in places where Democrats have near-complete control of government, and to take the opportunity of free media to highlight their supposed failures. Another consideration is that control of the House could be decided by a few close races in New York and California.

But with the battleground state races seemingly so tight, it seems like a bit of a luxury for Trump to be focused on helping down-ticket candidates. Think about it: None of the states where Trump is holding rallies has a competitive Senate race, although there are a handful of competitive House races in a year where the House will likely be decided by a razor-thin margin. From NBC: (brackets by Wrongo)

“In California, House District 40 is represented by Republican Young Kim, and House District 41 is represented by Republican Ken Calvert, both of whom are in contested races in the Los Angeles media market along with Coachella [CA], where Trump will be holding his rally.

In New York, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito won Nassau County’s 4th district in 2022, but it is a seat that leans Democratic and was won by Joe Biden by 15 points in 2020. Flipping the seat played a big role in helping Republicans take the House majority in 2022.”

Will the rallies be useful? People are already voting, and the primary value of rallies is to energize your base to help get out the vote. The more people they can get to vote early, the easier the Get Out The Vote (GOTV) effort on Election Day becomes. So little boosts of enthusiasm and local press coverage can help drive your people to the polls.

Is a rally in Madison Square Garden really a good idea? NBC quotes Republican operative Matthew Bartlett:

“This does not seem like a campaign putting their candidate in critical vote rich or swing vote locations — it seems more like a candidate who wants his campaign to put on rallies for optics and vibes…”

Two of his stops, Coachella, CA and Aurora, CO seem to be simply for optics about immigration and crimes committed by immigrants. Coachella Mayor Steven Hernandez, a Democrat, issued a statement blasting Trump:

“Trump’s attacks on immigrants, women, the LGBTQ community and the most vulnerable among us don’t align with the values of our community….He has consistently expressed disdain for the type of diversity that helps define Coachella.”

At Trump’s stop in Aurora earlier this year, he spread debunked rumors about Venezuelan gangs overrunning the city, including taking over an apartment complex. Trump’s claims have been refuted by local police, and the Republican Mayor Mike Coffman, who called them “not accurate.”

The Chicago stop will feature both Trump and his VP candidate JD Vance, at a Bloomberg-hosted event at the Economic Club of Chicago.

But let’s focus on MSG. Holding a rally at MSG has long been on Trump’s wish list. For some Conservatives, it harkens back to when the  “America First” rally was conducted at MSG in 1939. On its surface, it was simply a rally held by the German-American Bund at the old Madison Square Garden in Manhattan at a time when pro-Nazi feeling was high in the US.

The Bund (bund is German for “organization”), was founded by German immigrant Fritz Kuhn in Buffalo in 1936. His vision was to create a pro-Nazi ideology within the US. Kuhn and his people used patriotic images of George Washington and the American flag to attract Americans of German descent as members. But the organization’s goals were wider: To create a “socially just, white gentile-ruled United States” and a “gentile-controlled labor union free from Jewish Moscow-directed domination.”

He sounds nice.

Tom Nichols, a Never Trump conservative who writes for the Atlantic, quotes from a Trump talk in Claremont, NH:

“We will drive out the globalists, we will cast out the communists, Marxists, fascists. We will throw off the sick political class that hates our country
.On Veterans Day, we pledge to you that we will root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, that lie and steal and cheat on elections and will do anything possible
legally or illegally to destroy America and to destroy the American dream.”

The parallelism between a fascist speaking in MSG in 1939 and a would-be fascist speaking there 85 years later shouldn’t be lost on anyone who is sitting up and taking nourishment.

Time to face up to the truth. Trump is a wanna-be fascist, even if he’s too ignorant to label what he is. Others on the extreme Right have noticed and see the potential of using him for fascistic purposes.

Trump’s bringing fascism back to America one rally at a time, whether we call it by its name or not.

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More Data That Supports A Harris Win

The Daily Escape:

Wrongologist readers know that Wrongo thinks the presidential election isn’t quite as close or scary for Democrats as the polls would have you believe. They show Harris with a narrow lead, with some showing the battleground states as tied. Well, most polls aren’t truly reliable these days. And the pollsters, who make arbitrary weightings after the questions are asked, seem to travel in packs. They’re terrified of underestimating Trump support (as they have in the past). So maybe this time they have a thumb on the scales just like they did in 2022.

Wrongo has been saying that it’s possible to make a vibes-and-momentum argument that Harris has sprinted ahead of Trump who seems to be shrinking right before the public’s eyes whenever he speaks. By any normal standard, Trump has lost it mentally and emotionally. His speeches at rallies consist of rambling, often apocalyptic, hate-filled rhetoric and lies.

In order to get attention he’s saying crazier and crazier things, but it’s hard to see that any of that is winning over more voters. His efforts seem to be to directed at keeping his most fervent supporters energized while extracting as many dollars as he can from their wallets.

Harris on the other hand has effectively undermined the image of Trump as some sort of inevitable strongman. Instead has cast him as a failed rich-kid with no plan beyond turning Americans against each other.

There are some interesting survey data points that are encouraging for Harris: A new survey suggests that pollsters may be underestimating Harris’s support with young people. The large Harvard IOP youth poll suggests there is now a serious youth surge towards Harris.

  • She is up 61%-30% with likely 18-29 year-old voters. In 2020 Biden won 18-29 year-olds by just 24 points.

The Harvard IOP youth poll is a very large sample poll of a narrow slice of the electorate, and thus far, more reliable than 70-person sub-samples of groups in national polls. We’re also seeing surges in young people registering to vote.

And this Harris margin hasn’t been getting captured in most polling so far.

Compare the Harvard poll to this week’s Quinnipiac poll, that had Trump up a point. Quinnipiac’s 18-34 year old vote was Harris 48, Trump 45. But if Harvard’s poll is closer to correct, that number probably should be more like Harris +25 to +27. Adjusting for the youth surge in the Harvard poll to the Quinnipiac poll would put Harris up by a lot, not behind.

Another point is that many young people register as unaffiliated, not as Democrats. So analysts may not be seeing  a youth surge towards Harris.

Howard University just completed a large sample poll of black voters in the battleground states. It showed that likely Black American voters in battleground states show strong support for Harris over Trump. Harris leads Trump, 82% to 12% among this population. The same voters report having supported President Biden over Trump 81% to 9% in the 2020 election. Support for Harris was even higher among voters who say they are “almost certain” to vote 85% to 10%.

The Howard poll has a ±3.1 margin of error, and 96% of the sample indicate they are likely to vote in the 2024 presidential election.

Finally, some readers wanted Wrongo to keep them updated on Thomas Miller’s model that forecasts the Electoral College vote based on investor closing prices in the PredictIt market for the Party that will win the 2024 presidential election. For September 26, the closing prices indicated that Harris wins the Electoral College 312- 226.

Remember that political polls are snapshots of the recent past and have limited predictive power.

Prediction markets, OTOH, are forward-looking. Investors anticipate what will happen on election day and place their bets accordingly. Just as the stock market is a leading indicator of what is expected to happen with the economy, a political prediction market is a leading indicator of what will happen with an election.

Time for a Saturday Soother. Just forget about the election for a few moments while you watch and listen to Luigi Boccherini’s  (1743-1805) “String Quintet in E major” (1st Movement) performed in 2015 at the Chester Music Festival and played by the Ensemble Diva:

Boccherini was a virtuoso cellist who is credited with modifying Hayden’s model of the string quartet by bringing the cello to prominence.

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Harris’s Chances This Fall

The Daily Escape:

Storm over Mt. Tom, Easthampton MA – July 2024 photo by Stef Michael

It’s sad that Biden is unable to carry the torch, but Wrongo’s never been happier with the Democratic Party. The leadership made an incredibly difficult decision to insist that despite winning the nomination of the Party, Biden shouldn’t accept it. The reality was that neither Biden nor the Party could responsibly argue that Biden would be fit to serve another four and a half years in office. Worse, the American people simply weren’t buying that he could.

So the past 30(ish) days constituted the best example in Wrongo’s lifetime of a political party doing what a political party is supposed to do, which is to put the interests of the Party, and by extension the interests of the country, ahead of the interests of any individual. Even if that person happens to be the president of the US.

This shows the central difference between the Democrats and the cult of personality we formerly called the Republican Party. It’s impossible to imagine the Republicans removing Trump as its presidential candidate.

By contrast, the Democrats gradually came to a collective conclusion after the June 27 debate that circumstances had changed enough to warrant bringing maximum institutional pressure on Biden to withdraw from the race. We will never know how well Biden would have done in the election compared to how Harris will do. The Party decided, and the Party made the right decision — as most critically, did Biden himself.

We’ve all seen the energy, enthusiasm, fresh hope, and tons of money that have poured into the Democrats’ coffers. But how realistic is Harris’s path to the White House?

It’s only day four, and Harris, the (very) likely Democratic presidential nominee, is still getting loads of positive press while Democrats are falling all over themselves to give her money and volunteer to work on the campaign. It may be early but it’s worth looking at Harris’s path to winning 270 Electoral College votes in order to keep the White House out of Trump’s hands.

The Harris campaign told Politico about how they see the Electoral College map:

“The Midwest is not where the opportunity is for her….The opportunity with her
 is going to be Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania. And however those four states go, the rest of the country will follow.”

That thinking is based on the EC maps produced by 270towin.com. Here’s their current take:

Now Wrongo doesn’t think that PA and MI are currently toss-ups. He thinks that they lean Democratic, making the spread: Harris 260 vs. Trump at 251, with just 27 toss-up EC votes remaining. Wrongo is uncertain that Harris can win North Carolina, despite having a Democratic governor and both of its GOP senators having won last time by less than 2 percentage points. Mark Robinson, the NC Republican gubernatorial candidate is perhaps the worst in the US. Having said that it was acceptable to kill people on the left, and that women shouldn’t be allowed to vote, he should be a real drag on the Trump vote.

But Harris may be able to take Georgia and Arizona as well as Pennsylvania and Michigan. Here’s that map:

In fact, in this scenario, Harris could lose either Georgia or Arizona, and still get to 270.

If you’re looking for an upside, Harris has more viable paths to 270 electoral votes than Biden did. However, Trump has more places (Virginia and Minnesota) to expand the map than does Harris (North Carolina). So the map STILL favors Trump, since he has more paths to 270.

So we’ve gone from no realistic path to victory to setting the stage for victory. We shouldn’t forget that Trump essentially has a ceiling. Politico has reported a 700% increase in voter registration at Voter.com in the last 48 hours. The higher the turnout, the better for Harris.

When Biden was running, many people said, “It’s hopeless, Trump will win.” And now, they’re feeling energized. OTOH, some are thinking that “Harris is raising so much money, maybe I don’t need to do anything.”

We can’t be lazy or passive, the stakes are too high. There’s an organization, Focus4Democracy, a group of smart people with decades of experience crafting effective campaign messages. They do a zoom every 2 weeks. The next one is Sunday, July 28 @ 8:00 pm EST. You can register at bit.ly/F4D28July . Their Zooms explain how they test and refine messages that generate more Democratic votes, particularly in battleground states. And they track the results. They also need donations.

Speaking of messaging, Harris’s first appearance as the Democratic nominee in Milwaukee was promising. At the strategic level, here’s what she did:

  • Highlighted her time as a prosecutor and tied that to Trump’s crimes.
  • Positioned her campaign as focused on middle-class, kitchen-table issues.
  • Framed the choice as “striding into the future” vs. “being dragged into the past.”

Here’s some things she did not do:

  • Describe Trump as a threat to democracy.
  • Reference the historic nature of her campaign as a black woman.
  • Reach out to the left.

The things she didn’t do were very smart. She didn’t give any policy details. In a 100-day campaign, she needs to be as light on details and as long on ideas as possible. At some point she’ll need to come up with a couple of concrete proposals.

There was no “democracy” talk. While most Democrats view this election in terms of democratic backsliding, polls consistently show that “democracy” isn’t something voters care much about. To the extent Harris gestured toward democracy, it was to frame the choice as:

“Do we want to live in a country of freedom, compassion, and the rule of law? Or a country of chaos, fear, and hate?”

Branding Trump as “chaos” while framing her agenda as “freedom” seems more effective than talking about “saving democracy,” the way most Dems prefer.

There was no talk of identity politics. Everything about Harris’s nomination is historic. She’s the first Black woman to be nominated for president by a major party. She’s the first Democrat to run against an insurrectionist. The first person to be swapped into a presidential nomination at the final hour. But these firsts are all out there. So unlike Hillary, she doesn’t need to talk about them. And maybe not talking about the historic nature of her candidacy makes it even more powerful in the minds of voters.

Wrongo likes Harris’s energy and focus on the future! In the immortal words of Tom Brady, “Let’s goooo!”

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Now What?

The Daily Escape:

Sunset, Harpswell, ME – July 2024 photo by Jeffery Scott Smith Photography

Is it possible to appreciate just how bad July 2024 has been? Wrongo counts July as beginning on June 27, the date of the first presidential debate. Start with Trump v. US and then go on to Biden’s debate debacle, and now to Biden’s decision to end his campaign for another term.

Every day of this month has moved us beyond anything Wrongo ever imagined as possible, even though he’s become politically pretty jaded over the years. We’ve never seen people so tense; feeling so helpless. And no one really knows what’s next: We’re staring into uncertainty. Despite that, Wrongo’s relieved Biden is quitting the race. Good on him for admitting, despite every instinct that got him here in the first place, that it was time to go.

Let’s hope that on this Monday morning we’re ready to fight for the one thing that matters: Electing Kamala Harris in November.  Because despite what Republicans like to say, Biden was the best president of the last 50 years, and we can build on that legacy by getting Kamala Harris elected. Also, let’s flip the script and start talking about presidential candidates being old and demented, without the worry that we’re also describing our own selves. Don’t you wonder if the press will notice?

Biden’s done this the best way possible. He made it clear he’s capable of doing the job and intends to do it until January. He endorsed Harris, and immediately pivoted to the importance of beating Trump. And now the Democratic Party is lining up behind Harris.

And imagine how delicious it will be for Harris to preside over the Electoral College vote that elects her president!

Turning to the choice for VP? Wrongo has three suggestions. He wrote about picking PA governor Josh Shapiro a few weeks ago. PA is a crucial swing state that the Dems have to win to keep Trump out of the White House. A January Quinnipiac University poll showed Shapiro had a 59% job approval rating. Shapiro also is a good social media warrior and would be great on the campaign trail.

Sen. Mark Kelly of AZ would also be an interesting choice. He’s also from a swing state that has a Democratic governor to fill his seat until a special election. It’s important to remember that Kelly is a prodigious funds raiser, who was an astronaut. He is completely qualified to talk about gun violence and its impact on families.

Third, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan would also deliver a swing state to the Democratic column. She flipped control of the MI state legislature to the Dems in the 2022 midterm elections. When Whitmer ran for reelection in 2022, she won by nearly 11 points, reflective of her broad appeal in a state where the margins are rarely so big (Biden won MI by 2.8% in 2020). And think about how Trump would try to attack a team of two women. It wouldn’t be easy, given how Trump prefers to demonize and stereotype his opponents!

Time to wake up America! We’re in that crucial period between Trump’s first coup attempt and his second! But the political landscape just shifted under your feet. A team of young Democrats could change the conversation, adding stories about women, young people, people of color, and critically, how Americans have had to adjust in the face of change and disruption. Voters would rally to that story.

To help you wake up watch and listen to the Marsh Family perform a parody about JD Vance to the Abba tune “Dancing Queen”. They’re a family of six from Kent in the UK  who say:

“…here’s our less-than-impressed profile of yet another populist politician with highly flexible morality, worrying contempt for democratic process and discourse, but big funding and a big mouth who’s happy to tap into ordinary people’s fears while claiming to be an example of their dreams.”

Apparently Vance made an ill-advised splash by pretending concern about nuclear proliferation and half-jokingly describing the UK as an “Islamist country”:

The video is terrific!

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Saturday Soother + Cartoons Of The Week, July 21, 2024

The Daily Escape:

View from the Rancho Nicasio roadhouse, Marin County, CA – July 2024 photo by Dave Alvin

Did Wrongo miss anything? From here, it seems worth noting that the attempted assassination of Trump has landed like a rock in a pond; it made a big splash and then sank to the bottom. Even the press seem to be realizing “wait, nobody cares? For real?” It’s largely in the rear view mirror, if Trump could leave it there.

The shooter has given the press and Republicans nothing to chew on (no manifesto, nothing on social media, no obvious radical affiliations, nothing more than a party registration and an old donation). Perhaps we’ve become so normalized to the lone shooter in America that we’re at the point where we say, “oh yeah, some dude just took a shot at Trump.” And people say: “OK, makes sense“, like saying “stranger things have happened“.

And JD Vance as the GOP VP candidate also makes sense, because Republicans always buy into bad stereotypes about poor White people. Vance capitalized on the fact that White people, especially suburban, rich ones who buy books, are mostly out of touch with the realities of rural, poor White folks and are disdainful towards them. He sold White America a story of helplessness/failure to “bootstrap” that spoke directly to their stereotypes.

His book asserts that because one person made it out of “broken” Appalachia, everyone should be able to do the same. Its primary argument is that poor people suffer because they don’t know any better. From NY Mag:

“Vance says he is fighting a class war on behalf of workers, but his record suggests otherwise. When he does intervene in matters of class, it’s often on the side of the elites. He showed up to a UAW picket line in Ohio, but opposes the PRO Act, which would shore up collective bargaining rights for millions of workers….”

And what have Vance and the GOP actually done for rural folk? They cut off their healthcare. They eliminate government services, and refuse to pay for their educations. They now want to force them to have babies against their will. What else will Vance’s “help” do for them if he’s elected?

And did Trump’s acceptance speech help him? It doesn’t help when you have the longest recorded acceptance speech by a major Party nominee in our history. His chat wound up being more than 12,000 words and clocked in at an interminable 92 minutes. It broke the record for longest acceptance speech in history by 18 minutes. But that shouldn’t have been a complete surprise since the second and third longest acceptance speeches in history are Trump’s from 2016 and 2020.

The WaPo reported that toward the end of his speech a woman sitting with the Illinois delegation was heard saying, “Wrap it up, Don!” The only real surprise is that he gave a MAGA rally speech at a moment that should have been tailored to a bigger and less unhinged target audience.

From Jonathan Alter, who said Trump’s bad speech gave life to the Dems:

“Theodore Roosevelt was shot in Milwaukee, just a mile from where the GOP Convention took place. The assassin’s bullet went through Roosevelt’s eyeglass case and the text of a 50-page speech (TR was long-winded, too…) and lodged in his chest. Because he didn’t cough up blood, the former president finished his speech before receiving medical attention.

Roosevelt, too, was attempting a comeback four years after he left the presidency….He was the popular candidate of the Progressive “Bull Moose” Party, and many of his supporters believed his life had been spared by divine providence.

Here’s how the story ends: The shooting took place less than three weeks before the election. By the time Americans went to the polls, it was old news, and Roosevelt finished 14 points behind the winner, Woodrow Wilson.”

Finally, Kamala Harris. CNN has a piece today that says the Democrats are actually coming to a consensus that Kamala Harris has to be the nominee if Biden steps aside:

“No one quite knows what the process of picking a new nominee would be if Joe Biden did step aside – but many Democrats say that any process is likelier than ever to quickly end with Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee.”

How and if that happens is still (weeks later) dependent upon Biden deciding to step aside. But as Tom Sullivan says:

“Admit it. You’d love to see the Democratic former district attorney debate the helmet-kissing, multiply convicted, sex-offending, Republican presidential candidate currently out on bail in three jurisdictions.”

As the NY Intelligencer reports:

“Republicans are bracing for the fact that Harris will be a more effective campaigner than Biden and certainly a better debater. And they think that should Harris ultimately become the nominee, she will be awash in positive media coverage from outlets like the New York Times and the Washington Post, which Republicans believe have been on a crusade to replace Biden. The positive media coverage will likely result in a modest polling bump for Harris — but Republicans believe it will only be a temporary one.”

Trump’s proclivity for spouting racially coded and misogynist comments would be on full display daily if Harris became the nominee, further turning off college-educated voters and women.

On to cartoons. Another terrible display of hive thinking by America’s cartoonists, but here’s the best: Still the state of play for Democrats:

Judge Cannon is on the case:

Trump and Vance have something in common:

Tech billionaires rush to help the GOP:

On to the weekend! With the Republican convention behind us, we can get back to picking tomatoes from our backyard garden. Not only did the Trump fever break, but the weather has turned cooler here on the Fields of Wrong. So grab a chair outdoors in the shade.

Since we’re going to war for the soul of our democracy, watch and listen to Richard Wagner’s “Die Walkure – The Ride of the Valkyries” performed here in 2016 by Jaap Van Zweden and the Hong Kong Philharmonic.

The “Ride of the Valkyries “refers to the beginning of Act 3 of Die WalkĂŒre, the second of the four epic music dramas constituting Richard Wagner‘s Der Ring des Nibelungen.

But surely, music isn’t politics, it’s simply art! Wrongo is of an age that when he hears this played, he sees Huey gunships and Robert DuVall assaulting a Vietnamese village:

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Beat Him With Ballots, Not Bullets

The Daily Escape:

Sunrise, Jordan pond trail, Acadia NP – July 2024 photo by Joe Lacroix

President Biden addressed the nation on Sunday. He said he’s ordering an independent review of the assassination attempt on Trump at his political rally in PA on Saturday night. And he denounced the attack as contrary to everything we stand for as a nation.

After the shooting Biden called Trump and asked him if he was okay. Biden also suspended his campaign temporarily, including posting on social media. Over two presidential campaigns, Trump has done nothing but insult Biden and make fun of him, but Biden called him and asked him if he was okay. That’s the definition of a leader.

If you follow the news closely, you’ve seen every major Democratic leader in the country resolutely condemning this political violence. Yet quite a few Republican members of Congress wasted no time in politicizing the attack on Trump by blaming Biden. Those Republicans, of course, will be given a pass, as always.

And the story will continue to dominate the news for several weeks: What was the shooter’s motive? His politics? (if any). There will rightly be serious questions about the Secret Service’s actions (and inaction). Many will strive to blame the inflammatory Trump rhetoric as a contributor to the attempted act.

Will it boost Trump’s chances? That’s difficult to say, but it has certainly inflamed his base. Teddy Roosevelt was shot and then lost. Gerald Ford was shot at twice and lost. Reagan’s approval rating quickly returned to where it was before Hinckley tried to kill him. History isn’t exactly a blueprint for electoral success.

OTOH, Trump’s now equal parts hero and victim to the Republican base. They will remember and repeat the line from his stump speech:

“In the end, they’re not coming after me. They’re coming after you — and I’m just standing in their way.”

The conjunction of Trump shot and bleeding, along with getting to his feet with blood running down his face, and raising his fist while yelling “fight, fight, fight” will make him an action hero for Republicans. It’s already the cover of Time magazine:

And as you should have expected, within 24 hours after the shooting, a messianic narrative was emerging around Trump. On Friday, it was impossible to imagine Trump as a sympathetic figure, but now? It’s become possible. Think about the MAGA narrative:

  • The Deep State Secret Service (run by Biden) didn’t protect our guy. The government failed them once again. It had to be planned!
  • Trump is instantly the manliest man among all men. Defiant, strong. He’s even more MAGA than EVER!
  • The Dems planned this because they couldn’t get him in the criminal or civil court system. So this is how they tried to rid us of him.
  • If the Dems attack Trump, they are attacking a man who was almost assassinated. How could you attack such a warm and loving man of God? (barf).

As to Biden’s candidacy? The assassination attempt will put any talk of replacing Biden aside for now. But if Trump makes inroads in the polls as a result of this, the talk of a replacement will begin again.

Wrongo has zero sympathy for Trump, not now, or before the shooting. You want 18 year-olds to have automatic weapons? You want to cheer on guys like Putin? You laugh at Paul Pelosi getting seriously injured? You want to minimize the plot against Gretchen Whitmer? You say Ashley Babbit was a martyr? You want to pardon all of the 1/6 criminals?

Trump is reaping what he has sown. We live in a very angry and dangerous gun climate created by Trump and the Republican Party. The reality is that Trump got a minor injury in an assassination attempt, and then proceeded to ham it up in response, demonstrating his sure feel for the cameras.

That doesn’t change the fact that Trump is STILL a repugnant con-man, criminal, pathological liar, serial sexual abuser who should be kept away from the White House.

Wake up America! Did the job get harder? Quite possibly. But the job is still to defeat Trump in November, but by VOTES, not bullets.

Sorry, there’s nothing to sing about on this Monday.

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Cartoons Of The Week

Every cartoonist tried to pile on the “Biden’s too old” story this week. Some were ok, most were obvious and mean-spirited, including many depicting the First Lady as the power behind the throne, manipulating a doddering Biden.

Yesterday, Wrongo said that since the election will be determined by turnout of a very few votes in a very few states. He likes this question from Robert Kuttner: Do the Democrats have the energy to turn out enough voters for down ballot races? Will those voters also vote for the top of the ticket?:

“Think of it as reverse coattails. One impressive feat, especially since Trump’s election in 2016, has been a massive effort to increase the size and turnout of potential Democratic voters. Most of this has been done outside the institutional Democratic Party, though in a few states such as Wisconsin the party has been a major force.”

Better turnout on the Democratic side, especially among “low-propensity” groups, such as young people and voters of color, far more than trying to win over swing voters, was key to helping Biden win in 2020. It also allowed Democrats to do better than expected in the midterm elections of 2018 and 2022. It can work again.

On to cartoons. The last convention that Chicago hosted wasn’t a win for the Dems:

The fundamental question still isn’t resolved:

Memory problems exist my friends:

Heritage takes aim at you and me:

The only book Republicans won’t ban:

The one candidate with a mugshot:

The real question for November:

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Biden For The Win?

The Daily Escape:

Sunset, North Fork Reservoir from Mt. Mitchell, NC – July 2024 photo by Mandy Gallimore. Mt. Mitchell is the highest mountain in the Eastern US.

More thoughts about Biden’s press conference: While Wrongo thinks that Biden’s claim to the nomination has been strengthened, that hasn’t quieted the naysayers in the Democratic Party, and many in the press remain focused on his gaffe about Harris. Still, Wrongo is going to assume that Biden will remain at the top of the ticket. The question becomes how to shift the discourse to describing the consequences of a second Trump administration? Wrongo might say:

“Do you want a country run by an old felon who has bankrupted every business he’s owned and filled his administration with phony religious zealots at every level who are only loyal to him? Or do you want an older competent leader with years of government experience surrounded by good people with the best interest of the country?

Do you want chaos and turmoil or competence and compassion? If you’re still undecided think about the consequences of your decision for your children and grandchildren. It’s your choice.”

Wrongo was struck by data from this recent NPR Marist poll:

“With just days to go before the start of the Republican National Convention…Biden and former President…Trump continue to be closely matched among registered voters in both a head-to-head matchup and a multicandidate field….Biden’s support remains relatively unchanged from last month despite the view of many Americans that he lacks the mental fitness to serve as president.

The poll also found that Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Gretchen Whitmer do not improve the Democrats’ chances against Trump. Harris receives support from 50% of registered voters to 49% for Trump. Newsom garners 50% to 48% for Trump. Whitmer receives 49% of the vote to 49% for Trump.

Here’s the top line results:

There are only 2% undecided, which means winning the election is dependent on turnout.

The poll also says that Biden outperforms Trump on which candidate has the character to be president. By more than two to one, Americans are more concerned about a president who lies than they are about someone who is too old to serve:

“Americans are overwhelmingly more concerned about a president who plays fast and loose with the facts than someone who is too old to serve. Nearly seven in ten Americans (68%) think it is more concerning if a president does not tell the truth. Nearly one in three (32%) think it is more concerning if someone is too old to serve. Democrats (85%), independents (66%), and a slim majority of Republicans (51%) agree that dishonesty is of greater concern over advanced age.”

More from the cross-tabs:

“Nearly two in three Americans (64%), including 38% of Democrats and 35% of Biden supporters, do not think Biden has the mental fitness to serve as president. 68% of independents say the same. Americans divide (50% mentally fit to 49% mentally unfit) about Trump’s mental acuity.”

At the press conference, Biden questioned the reliability of the polls and they really don’t seem very believable to Wrongo. They all show it’s a close race, but we should be very skeptical that we’re getting a real look at the state of the race.

Those Democrats who want Biden out — either because they think he can’t win, or because of his decline in mental acuity, or both — have a very weak political argument. As of this writing, Biden stays. With the WaPo having the race tied and NPR having Biden slightly ahead, why would the man give up the nomination because a handful of House members, a Senator of two (publicly) and a bunch of cranky donors want him to quit?

For the sake of argument, say it remains Biden v. Trump. There’s a practical political argument to be made to vote for Biden, even if you think that he won’t be able to serve four years. There will be an experienced Democratic VP able to take over and an administration led by thousands of Democratic appointees to continue to carry the load.

Contrast that with the possibility that Trump won’t serve a full term if elected, an event that is also quite likely. Think about whoever is his possible successor, along with an administration filled according to the Project 2025 blueprint can do to America. That seems to be a crash and burn scenario.

Congressman Jim Himes (D-CT) thinks that Biden should step aside. In speaking with MSNBC’s Alex Wagner, she asked what he saw in Biden’s post-NATO press conference that led him to call for Biden to step aside, Himes responded this way: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“…Alex, it’s really not about tonight. And one of the, really, kind of sick aspects of this moment is that we are watching every speech, every rally, every debate, and saying, how did he do today? And that’s just not the way to think about the presidency of the US.”

In other words, the price of Biden running, as Wrongo said, is to be on tender hooks until Election Day waiting for another ugly shoe to drop. If Democrats decide to keep Biden as their nominee — or, more accurately, if they are not able to pressure him off the ballot — that is what they have to look forward to for the next four months.

This November is not about dueling personalities, middle-of-the-road policy differences, or as some see it, an 81-year-old man being the lesser of two evils compared with a 78-year-old man. It’s a referendum on our democracy, and a choice between a trustworthy public servant who can be counted on to uphold American values and a felon who wants to push the country into authoritarianism.

Enough! It’s time to take a break from Biden’s political shortcomings. It’s now Trump’s turn to release his detailed medical records. To release his tax returns. To hold an hour-long foreign policy press conference.

Hey, let’s relax, it’s still the summer, and you can spare a few moments to forget about the election and stressing about whoever Trump plans to appoint as his VP next week. It’s time for our Saturday Soother. Here at the Mansion of Wrong, we’re enjoying temperate weather, unlike most of the US. Rain is promised and occasional showers, but this week, the days have been warm and dry.

To help you leave the political world behind for a few minutes, grab a chair in an air-conditioned room and watch and listen to “The Barcarolle” from Offenbach’s Les Contes d’Hoffmann. Here, soprano Fatma Said and mezzo-soprano Marianne Crebassa duet to great effect. They are joined by the Philharmonic Orchestra of Monte Carlo, conducted by Sascha Goetzel:

This is probably what heaven sounds like on a Saturday evening.

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