Retail Store Closings Reflect Middle Class Income

Today, we take a business trip!

The retail sector of the US economy is not doing so well. The Census Bureau tracks retail sales in the US, and sales decreased 0.30% in September, compared to the previous month. Retail Sales month over month in the US gained an average of 0.37% from 1992 until 2014, reaching an all-time high of 6.71% in October of 2001.

This week, NCR, the maker of point-of-sale devices for the retail industry who call themselves “the global leader in consumer transaction technologies”, announced disappointing third quarter results. NCR blamed particularly the “challenging retail market” for its debacle. CEO Bill Nuti explained it this way:

Market conditions within the retail industry worsened in the third quarter, as evidenced by weak same store sales comparisons and financial results. This resulted in our retail customers spending more cautiously than anticipated and further delaying solution roll-outs…Additionally, ongoing retail consolidation continues to be a factor impacting our performance.

NCR has noticed that brick-and-mortar retailers are cutting back. “Ongoing retail consolidation,” Nuti called it. And some, like Radio Shack, are likely to use bankruptcy courts to do it. The structural problems in the brick-and-mortar retail industry include Sears, which is closing 300 Sears stores and 80 Kmart stores.

Some of us wonder why anyone still buys there. Retail chains, large and small, have announced an epidemic of store closings in 2014. Here are the “Top 20? announcements of store closings. For these 20 chains, the total number of stores to be closed exceeds 4,200. The number of closed stores is the first column:

US-announced-retail-store-closings-2014Store closings add up: Jobs are lost, consumer spending weakens, and fewer tax revenues are paid to states and the federal government. This process has been going on for years. As a side note: when all this washes out, who is going to fill the vacant retail space in our malls? That’s one of the many secondary effects of the troubles in the American retail industry.

Hopefully, you haven’t invested in those Shopping Center Trusts.

 

Source: Wolf Richter

Yet, some box store retail continues to grow. Starbucks is opening another 1400 stores in the US by 2017, a 13% growth rate. They prove there is a market for things that can’t be ordered and delivered hot over the Internet. But, the openings of new retail locations for 2014 will not offset the closures. Much of domestic retail expansion in 2014 is about discount stores. Between Dollar General, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree, more than 1400 new discount stores will be opening, using the original Walmart expansion strategy. At the same time, Walmart is abandoning its own strategy. The New York Times reports that: (brackets by the Wrongologist)

Walmart’s woes [are causing] a change in corporate strategy. Walmart will slow store openings in the United States next year, opening 60 to 70 supercenters, compared with 120 this year…The Company is shifting its focus toward smaller Neighborhood Market grocery stores, and it said it would open 180 to 200 of them next year. It is also accelerating its online offerings…

Auto sales (mostly at retail box stores) have been booming, Reuters reports that: (brackets by the Wrongologist)

The annualized sales rate slowed to 16.4 million [units]…above last year’s 15.4 million, but well below the 17.5 million [annualized] pace in August.

This performance was partly due to cheap money, long financing terms, and a focus on subprime customers. Jim Lentz, US chief executive at Toyota Motor Corp:

We are seeing more ‘subprime,’ which is good.

In one report, a 71 year old Queens NY woman on food stamps got a $16,000 loan on a used car:

After two test drives and about two hours, the dealership found her a loan: $16,000 financing for a used 2014 Ford Fiesta. There would be a bank fee of about $4,000, and she would have an interest rate of 20.23%

Subprime, indeed. As for the role of consumer spending in our economy, American consumers are stressed. Many have had to curtail their spending, or make up the difference with borrowed money. Closing retail stores may be the canary in a coal mine for our consumer economy. For some business owners, considering some retail store analytics might provide insight into how to keep their stores open.

The best measure of economic security is ownership of wealth. Yet, using Median Wealth as a yardstick, the middle class in the US ranks only 27th in the world. Here is how we rank against two of our allies:

#27 USA: $44,911 ? hardly enough to pay for an operation in a US hospital
#1 Australia: $219205
#6 United Kingdom: $111,524

Global wealth has reached a new all-time high of $241 trillion, up 4.9% since last year and 68% since 2003, with the USA accounting for 72% of the latest increase.

Perhaps the solution in the US is to not to tax based only on income, but to tax based on income and assets. If you own or control 80 to 90% of the assets of this country, and the country’s resources are securing, maintaining, and protecting your assets, it stands to reason that you should also be bearing the majority of the tax burden of the country.

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Monday Wake-Up Call – October 20, 2014

Happy Monday! Here is your thought for the week:

“People react to fear, not love. They don’t teach that in Sunday school, but it’s true” − Richard M. Nixon

Not a complete surprise that Nixon was wrong. They DO teach fear in Sunday school:

COW Fear

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In Liberia, only 43% of the adult population are literate, so radio, not the written word, is the best way to inform people about the disease. There are 16 local languages in Liberia, in addition to English. People rarely have access to the Internet or television.

Songs about Ebola are popular in West Africa. One of the most popular is “Ebola in Town” by Samuel “Shadow” Morgan and Edwin “D-12” Tweh, along with Kuzzy, of 2Kings. The song sounds like American hip-hop, but the style is called “Hip Co”, a form of colloquial English that appeals to young Liberians (about 50% of the population is under 18).

Here is an audio file of the song. There are YouTube videos out there, but they have extremely graphic depictions of Ebola victims, and may not be suitable for viewing at work or at home, if kids are in the room:

https://soundcloud.com/shadowmrgn/ebola-in-town-d-12-shadow-kuzzy-of-2kings

A sample of the lyrics:
Something happen
Something in town

Oh yeah the news

I said something in town
Ebola
Ebola in town

[Snip]

If you like the monkey

Don’t eat the meat
If you like the baboon
I said don’t eat the meat
If you like the bat-o
Don’t eat the meat
Ebola in town.

Songs can’t do all that much in a nation with the second-fewest doctors per person in the world.

Here are today’s hot links for your breakfast buffet:

Ebola got you stressed? Try textual healing. A new breed of online-therapy services offers flat-rate plans that allow you to text-chat with a licensed, accredited therapist as much as you like (need).

At least 30 states are still providing less funding per student for the 2014-15 school year than they did before the recession hit.

Researchers have created what they call Alzheimer’s in a Dish — a petri dish with human brain cells that develop the telltale structures of Alzheimer’s disease.

And we were doing so well in Pakistan: Six senior members of the Pakistani Taliban vowed allegiance to the Islamic State.

Go ahead, take your time getting to the party: Study shows that the median arrival time of 803 guests was 58 minutes after the party’s start time.

Of course we love our allies: Saudis to behead, then crucify a cleric who spoke out against the King. Did you know that Saudi Arabia doesn’t have a constitution?

We will never learn: John Allen, the general in charge of the US-led coalition’s response to ISIS says the US will create “a home-grown, moderate counterweight to the Islamic State”. Didn’t work in Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq. Why would it work this time?

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Sunday Cartoon Blogging – October 12, 2014

“Be afraid. Be very afraid.” In 20 letters, it’s the platform and program of the GOP:

COW Ebola Imports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Complete version: Be afraid of Africans, Hispanics, Democrats, Liberals, Muslims, Atheists, Foreigners, Gays, etc. If fact, be afraid of just about everyone except the GOP. Because those OTHERS will take your money, take your job, take your gun, infect you with diseases, break into you house, rape your women folk, strengthen and enlarge your government, spend your taxes, use your resources, raise your prices, insult your God, hurt your feelings (saying ‘Happy Holidays’ instead of ‘Merry Christmas’), corrupt your children, impoverish your descendants, enlarge your government, make life in your suburb or your condo no better than that of a slave on a plantation… and did we say enlarge your government?

If the above makes sense to you, then vote the Republican ticket in November. The GOP won’t accomplish anything, but they will validate your paranoia, and that will feel so good!

Stock Market gives back all of the year’s gain in one week:

 

COW Bad Week on Wall Street

The Supremes non-decision causes a wedding:

COW Shotgun Wedding

Malala winning the Nobel makes many parents jealous:

COW Slacker

ISIS recruiting steals American Slogan, “E Pluribus Unum”:

COW Out of many One

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Friday Music Break – October 10, 2014

Today, we review the song “Sixteen Tons”. Here is the chorus:

You load sixteen tons, what do you get
Another day older and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call me ’cause I can’t go
I owe my soul to the company store

The song is about economic exploitation of coal miners. Depending on your view of history, the song was written by Merle Travis in 1946, or George Davis in the 1930’s as “9 to 10 Tons”. Of course, older readers know of the 1956 Tennessee Ernie Ford version of the song. It sold 20 million copies as a single!

Part of the exploitation was that miners were paid in scrip, not in cash. Scrip is non-transferable credit vouchers which could be exchanged only for goods sold at the company store. Workers also lived in company-owned dormitories or houses, the rent for which was automatically deducted from their pay. This had the feature of lowering the costs of labor for the mining companies, while making it impossible for workers to accumulate any cash savings. In the US, the associated debt bondage persisted until after the 1914 Ludlow Massacre.

The Massacre was the result of a strike against the Colorado Fuel & Iron Company, owned by John D. Rockefeller, Jr., the Rocky Mountain Fuel Company, and the Victor-American Fuel Company. The strike resulted in the violent deaths of at least 19 people.

Howard Zinn in The Politics of History described the Ludlow Massacre as:

The culminating act of perhaps the most violent struggle between corporate power and laboring men in American history

The Ludlow Massacre quickly evolved into a national rallying cry for labor unions and eventually helped lead to New Deal labor reforms. But over the years, the tragedy in Ludlow Colorado has been largely forgotten.

Here is the Wrongologist’s favorite version of the song by Jeff Beck and ZZ Top’s Billy Gibbons, who toured together this year. They are supported by Tai Wilkenfeld on bass:

Note that the performance ends at 3:49.

Now, please ask yourself how much you are worth. Then look around you and realize that you are also a part of the most underpaid workforce since the days of the company store.

If politics is about power, then the powerful will always have the advantage. There will be an endless loop of the more powerful crushing the less powerful, with any change in the balance of power simply a random fluke, like what happened after Ludlow catalyzed the United Mine Workers.

If politics can be about policy, then power will not have an insurmountable advantage, and progress can happen again.

 

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Sunday Cartoon Blogging – October 5, 2014

Our country is hated abroad, and frightened at home. We have reached a point where we could reasonably refer to the great American Republic in the past tense. We have edged into a post-constitutional era, no longer a nation of laws, but an autocracy run by law evaders and law ignorers, a culture in which corruption is no longer a form of deviance, but the norm.

We all live in a Mafia-run neighborhood:

COW Banker Brutality
By now, everyone knows about the evils of bankers and their Washington facilitators: Wall Street lobbies Congress for favorable deals, Congress then approves them at taxpayer expense. When things are this bad, the very structure of our society is threatened, and voters have to stress fundamentals over issues. We need to move beyond the divisive cultural issues, all the single issues, even critical things like the environment, war and peace, and the “economy”, and focus on structural issues. We have to leave the culture wars and even big political differences behind, and make alliances among voters–because right now, none of us are being heard.

Will White House security improve with new leadership?

COW Behead

 

However, a new threat jumped the fence:

COW Fence Jumper

For months, the Ebola outbreak was confined to West Africa, a region more than 8,000 miles away. But this week a patient was diagnosed with the deadly virus in Dallas, Texas, bringing Ebola hysteria right on home. We have heard typical reassurances from the CDC, while some politicians have engaged in fear-mongering. But, unless lots of Americans plan on exchanging bodily fluids with people who live or work in West Africa, we’ll be fine.

Politicians talk about terror and say: “we could all be killed”. They speak about Ebola and say: “we could all be killed”. Mothra could also come back, and you know the nation isn’t prepared for Mothra. Where will we get enough Raid? Do we have Godzilla’s cell number? OK Obama, what are we supposed to do?

Meanwhile, the actors in the Middle East continue to mis-hear each other:

COW MidEast Talks

And in HK, not only no hearing, there is no listening:
COW HK

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Is Secession From the USA a Possibility?

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Sept. 19th, 23.9% of Americans polled from Aug. 23 through Sept. 16 said they strongly supported or tended to support the idea of their state breaking away from the country. The poll had 8,952 respondents. About 53% of them strongly opposed or tended to oppose secession, slightly less than the percentage that kept Scotland in the UK.

The exact wording of the question asked was: “Do you support or oppose the idea of your state peacefully withdrawing from the United States of America and the federal government?”

The LA Times reported the results by region:

Secession map
You can see the interactive results here. They can be filtered by age, region, income, party affiliation, etc. Any way you slice it, the data are startlingly clear: Almost a quarter of those surveyed said they were strongly or provisionally inclined to leave the US, and take their states with them. Given the size of the polling sample, the online survey’s credibility interval (digital for “margin of error”) was only 1.2%, so the poll seems to be an accurate representation of where the country stands.

Politically, conservatives and Republicans seem to like the idea of leaving more than Democrats. Among people who said they identified with the Tea Party, supporters of secession were in the majority, with 53%.

Secession got more support from Republicans than Democrats, more from right-than left-leaning independents, more from younger than older people, more from lower- than higher-income brackets, more from high school than college grads. In general, men were slightly more predisposed to secession than women. Those making $25,000 a year were 11 points more favorably disposed to rebellion than those making more than $150,000 a year. But there was a marginally higher level of support in every group, especially the Rocky Mountain States, the Southwest and the old Confederacy.

Fifty years ago, most Americans would have laughed at the idea of any state or region seceding, calling it the talk of a radical or a crackpot out of touch with reality. But, with Americans becoming increasingly frustrated by the protracted economic recovery, and by big government, they seem to be expressing an interest in returning to smaller jurisdictions. In the last year or so, we’ve seen:
• Actual secession votes in California and Colorado
• More than 125,700 Texans signed a secession petition
• Secession petitions were circulated in Maryland, Arizona, and Michigan
• Wisconsin Republicans came close to voting on a secession plan this spring

Had the poll first presented lists of “This is what you will no longer have from the Feds, and have to get along without, or pay for them yourself”, the vote might have been different. Consider, for example: the FAA, all those little City, County, State “Grants”, Court Systems, Law/Medical, and various Copyright, Food inspections, education grants/research etc. Who will pay for these things?

As in Scotland, the vote might have been different if the estimated increase in taxes and other payments to fund secession were included in the discussion.

For example, earlier this year the personal finance website WalletHub.com conducted a study of the amounts individual states are paying in federal taxes compared to the amounts they are receiving. WalletHub analyzed data from the IRS, the US Census Bureau, the US Commerce Department and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

As it turns out, it is red states that are overwhelmingly the Welfare Queen States, with Mississippi scoring the first (worst) position with 45.8% of its funding coming from the federal government. Yes, that’s right. Red States — the ones governed by folks who think government is too big and spending needs to be cut — take in more federal spending than they pay out in federal taxes.

They talk a good game, but are sticking the Blue States with the bill. WalletHub’s research demonstrates that, as a rule, the states that are the most likely to rail against “big government” are the most likely to be benefiting from it.

Secession is not illegal, unilateral secession is. A state can secede with the approval of the Federal Government by means of Constitutional amendment. A state that wants to secede legally and peacefully has to convince not only their own population but the rest of the country as well.

Think about Arizona seceding. It would be surrounded by the country it had just left and the country it seemingly hates most (Mexico) with little hope of defending itself, educating itself or paying its own way. Plus, a large number of their citizens are on Social Security and Medicare from (gasp) the United States of America. Decidedly not smart.

The question is, what do these results mean for the country?

The US hardly seems on the verge of a successful secession movement. But the poll results scale up to represent 60 million unhappy people in America, who are willing to consider secession.

This should scream out to our leaders that we are susceptible to the sophistry of a demagogue, or to a serious political reform movement.

 

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The Secret Service Must Do Better

Over the weekend, The WaPo reported about an attack on the White House that happened in 2011. The story was reported back then, but without clearly describing how the event was completely botched by the Secret Service. This is from the article:

A bullet smashed a window on the second floor, just steps from the first family’s formal living room. Another lodged in a window frame, and more pinged off the roof, sending bits of wood and concrete to the ground. At least seven bullets struck the upstairs residence of the White House.

Here is a representational photo of where the bullets struck the WH:

white-house-shooting

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The story of how the Secret Service reacted to the attack on Nov. 11th, 2011 is hard to believe. The actions of the Secret Service in the minutes, hours and days that followed the 2011 shooting were largely dysfunctional. Consider these points:
• It took the Secret Service four days to realize a shooting had occurred
• Officers who were on the scene and who thought gunfire had probably hit the house that night were largely ignored, and some were afraid to dispute their bosses’ conclusions
• Nobody conducted more than a cursory inspection of the White House for evidence or damage
• Key witnesses were not interviewed until after bullets were found in the walls

On the night of the attack, President Obama and his wife were in San Diego, but their younger daughter, Sasha, and Michelle Obama’s mother were in the WH, while older daughter Malia was expected back any moment. WaPo reports that with the first couple gone, the Secret Service had slipped into a “casual Friday” mode. An undercover agent in charge of monitoring the White House perimeter for suspicious activity had left with a more junior officer to fill up his service car at a gas station about a mile away.

The shooter was Oscar R. Ortega-Hernandez. The 21 year old had left his Idaho home three weeks earlier, during a time his friends said he had been acting increasingly paranoid. He kept saying that President Obama “had to be stopped.” He arrived in Washington on Nov. 9th with 180 rounds of ammunition and a Romanian-made semiautomatic rifle, (similar to an AK-47) that he had purchased at an Idaho gun shop. Writings by Hernandez and testimony from those who knew him showed that he believed President Obama was the antichrist.

After firing the shots, Hernandez, who had parked his Honda in a no parking zone on Constitution Avenue, sped away, and crashed his car 7 blocks from the White House. He left the driver’s-side door open. In the driver console was the semiautomatic assault rifle, with nine shell casings on the floor and seat, but Hernandez was gone.

And the worst part is that the man who had shot at the White House had disappeared on foot, with the Secret Service still trying to piece together what had happened.

It would be days before Hernandez was connected to the gunshots fired at the White House.

Secret Service officers initially moved to respond. One stationed directly under the second-floor terrace where the bullets struck, drew her .357. Snipers on the roof, standing just 20 feet from where one bullet struck, scanned the South Lawn through their rifle scopes for signs of an attack. In 2011, there was little camera surveillance of the White House perimeter. From WaPo:

Then came an order that surprised some of the officers. “No shots have been fired. . . . Stand down,” a supervisor called over his radio. He said the noise was the backfire from a nearby construction vehicle.

But several agents seemed to know that was not true: A pair of agents said they could smell gunpowder, while another had heard debris fall from the Truman balcony. But they stayed quiet, apparently out of fear of angering their superiors.

It is tough to realize just how far the current-day performance of the Secret Service is from their image as a highly trained, highly professional force. This shooting demonstrates that this organization mostly viewed as an elite force of selfless patriots, willing to take a bullet for the good of the country, is not always up to its job.

Just this month, a man carrying a knife was able to jump the White House fence and sprint through the front door. There have been incidents in the recent past, including a 29-shot barrage aimed at President Clinton in 1994, and the February, 2001 White House shooting, when Robert Pickett shot in the general direction of President Bush’s office from outside the White House perimeter fence.

Then there was Lynette Fromme who waved a gun but didn’t actually shoot at President Ford, and Sara Jane Moore who fired, but missed him.

Hernandez was caught, and in September 2013, he plead guilty to one count of destruction of property and one count of discharging a firearm during a crime of violence. He was sentenced to a term of 25-years imprisonment.

The 2011 event indicates that the Secret Service had a failure of leadership. The agents outside the WH took appropriate action. The guy who gave the “stand down” order retired soon after, and started a security firm. The culture at the time would not allow agents to contradict the bosses. Some of the leadership, including the person at the top, has been changed, but the Secret Service must stay sharp.

There is always more work to be done.

 

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The Coming Maker Economy

Ever hear of the Maker Movement? It is a loosely affiliated group of several hundred thousand people around the world who are starting their own small businesses dedicated to creating and selling self-made products.

It has the potential to be formidable economic force that might change much about how we produce and consume goods.

The Wrongologist first learned of the Maker Movement while preparing for his trip to Shenzhen, China last spring. Shenzhen is where the iPhone and iPad, and half of the world’s mobile phones are manufactured. It is also a huge hub of people who build, design, modify, hack, invent, or simply make something newer, cheaper, better and/or smaller than it can be made in large corporate or university contexts.

Maker culture emphasizes learning-through-doing in a social environment, rather than formal education as the most important part of skills development. This is very true in Shenzhen today.

Joi Ito, head of the MIT Media Lab, also visited Shenzhen earlier this year. He reports: (emphasis and brackets by the Wrongologist)

What we experienced was an entire ecosystem. From the bespoke little shop making 50 blinking computer controlled burning man badges to the guy rebuilding a phone while eating a Big Mac, to the clean room with robots scurrying around delivering parts to rows and rows of SMTs  [Surface Mount Technology machines] - the low cost of labor was the driving force to pull most of the world’s sophisticated manufacturing here, but it was the ecosystem that developed the network of factories and the tradecraft that allows this ecosystem to produce just about anything at any scale.

Notice he says “at any scale”. Ito goes further:

Just like it is impossible to make another Silicon Valley somewhere else, although everyone tries – after spending four days in Shenzhen, I’m convinced that it’s impossible to reproduce this ecosystem anywhere else.

Both Shenzhen and Silicon Valley have a “critical mass” that attracts more and more people, resources and knowledge, but they are also living ecosystems, with diversity and with a work ethic and experience base that another region will have difficulty bootstrapping. Ito thinks that most of America will do best by forging links with places like Shenzhen rather than to try and compete with it head-on

Modern technology has made it easier than ever for a single individual to create and distribute items that are customizable and unique, without depending on middlemen like manufacturers. The Internet facilitates direct marketing to end users. This shift is starting to affect the global economy, and will likely have big implications for new consumer and industrial products. The convergence of technology and Internet connectivity is making this a special time in history. It is beginning to look like it could have a transformative impact on our future.

Joi Ito has a TEDTalk that predates his Shenzhen trip. In the talk, he outlines a series of concepts that drive the Maker Movement. One takeaway is this point:

Education is what people do to you and learning is what you do to yourself.

Ito discusses a new approach: building quickly and improving constantly, without waiting for permission or for proof that you have the right idea. It is this bottom-up innovation that the Maker Movement is all about.

For Makers, community interaction and knowledge sharing is mediated through networked technologies, where websites and social media form the knowledge repositories. The exchange of ideas takes place in shared spaces called hackerspaces. Today, there are about 1,100 active hackerspaces all over the world.

One such hackerspace is Shenzhen’s HAXLR8R, started by expatriates, it is a start up accelerator program focused on providing hardware-based start-ups with the appropriate China-based knowledge and support to take their concept into a commercialized reality. You can see an explanation of their process here.

Earlier this year, the White House announced its own Maker initiative, where the Obama administration is partnering with companies, nonprofits, and communities to get the most out of the Maker Movement. China wants in on the game as well. In April, a Maker Faire in Shenzhen attracted an estimated 30,000 people.

Common sense suggests that if you want to maximize creativity, you find some bright people, give them the resources they need to pursue whatever idea comes into their heads, and then leave them alone.

Most will turn up nothing, but one or two may well discover something very, very useful.

The Maker Movement is democratizing product development, and a few successfully commercialized products may have a snowball effect. We may see products with more value and at cheaper price points than we ever thought possible.

And better paying jobs for Millennials.

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Do Demonstrations Matter Anymore?

Newsweek reported that The People’s Climate March on Sunday in New York was perhaps the largest climate change protest in history. Between 300,000 and 400,000 people took to the streets. Celebrities and high-profile politicians were among the marchers. The protest was big on social media, but it was largely ignored by the TV talking heads. HuffPo reported:

All in all, it was a perfect opportunity for some of America’s biggest news organizations to cover the topic of climate change, something that usually gets either ignored or badly handled. For Sunday talk show hosts, there was even a nice political hook, since the march was pegged to a UN summit that President Obama will be attending.

But HuffPo said that no Sunday morning show except MSNBC’s “Up” so much as mentioned climate change, or the march. There was one reference on “This Week” by The Nation’s Katrina van den Heuvel, who pointed out that the march was actually gathering right outside the ABC studios in Lincoln Center where the show is taped. The fact that more people actually showed up for climate change than an iPhone 6 sale in New York City is big news and it should have been covered!

Why no coverage? And more important, do demonstrations matter anymore? From Juan Cole:

Don’t get me wrong. I am all for demonstrating and admire everyone who came out in New York City on Sunday (some 400,000 according to Time magazine) to demand that world leaders deal urgently with climate change.

Cole makes the point that in the current political climate, holding large rallies rarely results in any political change. But, there have been exceptions. Consider the 1963 March on Washington. That was a case where succinct demands were associated with ground-up mass actions across America. It did not bring about immediate results, but the demonstrations combined with months, and sometimes years of base-level organizing, delivered energy and momentum to that same cohesive set of demands.

But the 21st century is not the 1960’s. Now, people just send a tweet and think they’ve accomplished something. The failure of demonstrations today is symptomatic of the failure of our democracy, which refuses to separate corporate money from elections, or from influencing the mass media. Pew Research reports that only 40% of Americans think that it is important for Congress and the White House to tackle the issue of climate change. The public already knows about climate change and sees it as a problem, yet nothing is done by either party, because it would inconvenience their corporate patrons, and anger the Koch brothers.

A 2010 Stanford University poll showed that voters are unpersuaded by the usual arguments against taking action on global warming:

Only 18% believe that slowing climate change would cause unemployment, and only 14% think the US should wait for other countries to go first.

What climate change activists must first realize that the obstacle is oligarchy, not public awareness of the issue.

Large demonstrations can help build local organizations, can bring together a broad range of activists who would not otherwise have face-to-face contact and can show like-minded people that they are not alone, that there are large numbers of people who share their views. These things are all valuable to any movement for social justice.

The writers of the US Constitution believed it important enough to explicitly provide for ‘the right of the people peaceably to assemble’, although recent efforts in cities across America to abridge that right in the name of public safety  have been growing. Assembly should still be seen as a form of pressure that requires many other steps to move the needle on the status quo.

The movement also needs a charismatic leader, a compelling story and a skilled group to coordinate all activities.

The next stage has to be competing for mind-share of our Congresspersons and Senators, against the entrenched and very wealthy hydrocarbon industries.
Gerrymandering that has produced a structural Republican majority in the House means that climate activists need to find GOP challengers who are deeply concerned about global warming and who are willing to primary the incumbent.

In the end, a single-issue Climate PAC, if very well-funded, could make a difference. Much of the climate change action will have to be done or coordinated by politicians, and at the moment most of those in Washington are owned by Big Oil, including by the Koch brothers.

Finally, it is clear that in addressing climate change, we address multiple ills in our society, including the tremendous waste of resources caused by the pursuit of war. We have long needed a political movement that ties together the various threads of what is wrong with our society and shows how they are interrelated.

Climate change activism has the potential to do that.

 

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Sunday Cartoon Blogging – September 7, 2014

It seems that we have nearly reached peak moron, but since WWIII ain’t gonna start itself, Mr. Putin and the guys at ISIS are trying to do what they can to move us in that direction:

COW Nato's got talent

NATO is happy to get back to an enemy it understands:

COW Vlad and Nato

Putin wants peace with Ukraine, now that he owns about 1/3 of the country:

COW Trojan Putin

Turning to domestic news, on Monday, the Senate will vote on a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United. The Democracy for All amendment, Senate Joint Resolution 19, allows governments to distinguish between people and corporations. It won’t pass in the House, so the Koch Brothers will be free to continue marching the Country toward Fascism.

The public finally got behind the issue of personal privacy when nude celebrity photos were hacked from the cloud:

COW Show Me

And the fight we really want to win goes on:

COW Seats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Finally, RIP Joan Rivers:

COW Joan Rivers

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