Mark it down as something Wrongo never thought he would see: Snoop Dogg as a commentator for the Olympics. The rapper helped host the opening ceremony with NBC Todayâs Hoda Kotb and Savannah Guthrie, NBCâs Mike Tirico, singer and talk show host Kelly Clarkson, and former NFL player Peyton Manning.
Those who watched the opening ceremony saw Snoop carry the Olympic torch like it was a giant marijuana joint, chat with Simone Bilesâ family, and set the mood for the 2024 Olympic Games by busting out dance moves while wearing his Olympic outfit:
This edition of the Olympic torch looks very blunt-y. There were a few cartoons that referenced the Olympics, along with many that documented the state of play in the US presidential election. On to cartoons.
Storm over Mt. Tom, Easthampton MA – July 2024 photo by Stef Michael
Itâs sad that Biden is unable to carry the torch, but Wrongoâs never been happier with the Democratic Party. The leadership made an incredibly difficult decision to insist that despite winning the nomination of the Party, Biden shouldnât accept it. The reality was that neither Biden nor the Party could responsibly argue that Biden would be fit to serve another four and a half years in office. Worse, the American people simply weren’t buying that he could.
So the past 30(ish) days constituted the best example in Wrongoâs lifetime of a political party doing what a political party is supposed to do, which is to put the interests of the Party, and by extension the interests of the country, ahead of the interests of any individual. Even if that person happens to be the president of the US.
This shows the central difference between the Democrats and the cult of personality we formerly called the Republican Party. Itâs impossible to imagine the Republicans removing Trump as its presidential candidate.
By contrast, the Democrats gradually came to a collective conclusion after the June 27 debate that circumstances had changed enough to warrant bringing maximum institutional pressure on Biden to withdraw from the race. We will never know how well Biden would have done in the election compared to how Harris will do. The Party decided, and the Party made the right decision â as most critically, did Biden himself.
Weâve all seen the energy, enthusiasm, fresh hope, and tons of money that have poured into the Democratsâ coffers. But how realistic is Harrisâs path to the White House?
Itâs only day four, and Harris, the (very) likely Democratic presidential nominee, is still getting loads of positive press while Democrats are falling all over themselves to give her money and volunteer to work on the campaign. It may be early but itâs worth looking at Harrisâs path to winning 270 Electoral College votes in order to keep the White House out of Trumpâs hands.
The Harris campaign told Politico about how they see the Electoral College map:
âThe Midwest is not where the opportunity is for her….The opportunity with her⊠is going to be Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania. And however those four states go, the rest of the country will follow.â
That thinking is based on the EC maps produced by 270towin.com. Hereâs their current take:
Now Wrongo doesnât think that PA and MI are currently toss-ups. He thinks that they lean Democratic, making the spread: Harris 260 vs. Trump at 251, with just 27 toss-up EC votes remaining. Wrongo is uncertain that Harris can win North Carolina, despite having a Democratic governor and both of its GOP senators having won last time by less than 2 percentage points. Mark Robinson, the NC Republican gubernatorial candidate is perhaps the worst in the US. Having said that it was acceptable to kill people on the left, and that women shouldnât be allowed to vote, he should be a real drag on the Trump vote.
But Harris may be able to take Georgia and Arizona as well as Pennsylvania and Michigan. Hereâs that map:
In fact, in this scenario, Harris could lose either Georgia or Arizona, and still get to 270.
If youâre looking for an upside, Harris has more viable paths to 270 electoral votes than Biden did. However, Trump has more places (Virginia and Minnesota) to expand the map than does Harris (North Carolina). So the map STILL favors Trump, since he has more paths to 270.
So weâve gone from no realistic path to victory to setting the stage for victory. We shouldnât forget that Trump essentially has a ceiling. Politico has reported a 700% increase in voter registration at Voter.com in the last 48 hours. The higher the turnout, the better for Harris.
When Biden was running, many people said, âItâs hopeless, Trump will win.â And now, theyâre feeling energized. OTOH, some are thinking that âHarris is raising so much money, maybe I donât need to do anything.â
We canât be lazy or passive, the stakes are too high. There’s an organization, Focus4Democracy, a group of smart people with decades of experience crafting effective campaign messages. They do a zoom every 2 weeks. The next one is Sunday, July 28 @ 8:00 pm EST. You can register at bit.ly/F4D28July . Their Zooms explain how they test and refine messages that generate more Democratic votes, particularly in battleground states. And they track the results. They also need donations.
Speaking of messaging, Harrisâs first appearance as the Democratic nominee in Milwaukee was promising. At the strategic level, hereâs what she did:
Highlighted her time as a prosecutor and tied that to Trumpâs crimes.
Positioned her campaign as focused on middle-class, kitchen-table issues.
Framed the choice as âstriding into the futureâ vs. âbeing dragged into the past.â
Hereâs some things she did not do:
Describe Trump as a threat to democracy.
Reference the historic nature of her campaign as a black woman.
Reach out to the left.
The things she didnât do were very smart. She didnât give any policy details. In a 100-day campaign, she needs to be as light on details and as long on ideas as possible. At some point sheâll need to come up with a couple of concrete proposals.
There was no âdemocracyâ talk. While most Democrats view this election in terms of democratic backsliding, polls consistently show that âdemocracyâ isnât something voters care much about. To the extent Harris gestured toward democracy, it was to frame the choice as:
âDo we want to live in a country of freedom, compassion, and the rule of law? Or a country of chaos, fear, and hate?â
Branding Trump as âchaosâ while framing her agenda as âfreedomâ seems more effective than talking about âsaving democracy,â the way most Dems prefer.
There was no talk of identity politics. Everything about Harrisâs nomination is historic. Sheâs the first Black woman to be nominated for president by a major party. Sheâs the first Democrat to run against an insurrectionist. The first person to be swapped into a presidential nomination at the final hour. But these firsts are all out there. So unlike Hillary, she doesnât need to talk about them. And maybe not talking about the historic nature of her candidacy makes it even more powerful in the minds of voters.
Wrongo likes Harrisâs energy and focus on the future! In the immortal words of Tom Brady, âLetâs goooo!â
Every cartoonist tried to pile on the âBidenâs too oldâ story this week. Some were ok, most were obvious and mean-spirited, including many depicting the First Lady as the power behind the throne, manipulating a doddering Biden.
Yesterday, Wrongo said that since the election will be determined by turnout of a very few votes in a very few states. He likes this question from Robert Kuttner: Do the Democrats have the energy to turn out enough voters for down ballot races? Will those voters also vote for the top of the ticket?:
âThink of it as reverse coattails. One impressive feat, especially since Trumpâs election in 2016, has been a massive effort to increase the size and turnout of potential Democratic voters. Most of this has been done outside the institutional Democratic Party, though in a few states such as Wisconsin the party has been a major force.â
Better turnout on the Democratic side, especially among âlow-propensityâ groups, such as young people and voters of color, far more than trying to win over swing voters, was key to helping Biden win in 2020. It also allowed Democrats to do better than expected in the midterm elections of 2018 and 2022. It can work again.
On to cartoons. The last convention that Chicago hosted wasnât a win for the Dems:
Sunset, North Fork Reservoir from Mt. Mitchell, NC – July 2024 photo by Mandy Gallimore. Mt. Mitchell is the highest mountain in the Eastern US.
More thoughts about Bidenâs press conference: While Wrongo thinks that Bidenâs claim to the nomination has been strengthened, that hasnât quieted the naysayers in the Democratic Party, and many in the press remain focused on his gaffe about Harris. Still, Wrongo is going to assume that Biden will remain at the top of the ticket. The question becomes how to shift the discourse to describing the consequences of a second Trump administration? Wrongo might say:
âDo you want a country run by an old felon who has bankrupted every business heâs owned and filled his administration with phony religious zealots at every level who are only loyal to him? Or do you want an older competent leader with years of government experience surrounded by good people with the best interest of the country?
Do you want chaos and turmoil or competence and compassion? If youâre still undecided think about the consequences of your decision for your children and grandchildren. Itâs your choice.â
âWith just days to go before the start of the Republican National Convention…Biden and former President…Trump continue to be closely matched among registered voters in both a head-to-head matchup and a multicandidate field….Bidenâs support remains relatively unchanged from last month despite the view of many Americans that he lacks the mental fitness to serve as president.
The poll also found that Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Gretchen Whitmer do not improve the Democratsâ chances against Trump. Harris receives support from 50% of registered voters to 49% for Trump. Newsom garners 50% to 48% for Trump. Whitmer receives 49% of the vote to 49% for Trump.
Hereâs the top line results:
There are only 2% undecided, which means winning the election is dependent on turnout.
The poll also says that Biden outperforms Trump on which candidate has the character to be president. By more than two to one, Americans are more concerned about a president who lies than they are about someone who is too old to serve:
âAmericans are overwhelmingly more concerned about a president who plays fast and loose with the facts than someone who is too old to serve. Nearly seven in ten Americans (68%) think it is more concerning if a president does not tell the truth. Nearly one in three (32%) think it is more concerning if someone is too old to serve. Democrats (85%), independents (66%), and a slim majority of Republicans (51%) agree that dishonesty is of greater concern over advanced age.â
More from the cross-tabs:
âNearly two in three Americans (64%), including 38% of Democrats and 35% of Biden supporters, do not think Biden has the mental fitness to serve as president. 68% of independents say the same. Americans divide (50% mentally fit to 49% mentally unfit) about Trumpâs mental acuity.â
At the press conference, Biden questioned the reliability of the polls and they really donât seem very believable to Wrongo. They all show itâs a close race, but we should be very skeptical that weâre getting a real look at the state of the race.
Those Democrats who want Biden out â either because they think he canât win, or because of his decline in mental acuity, or both â have a very weak political argument. As of this writing, Biden stays. With the WaPo having the race tied and NPR having Biden slightly ahead, why would the man give up the nomination because a handful of House members, a Senator of two (publicly) and a bunch of cranky donors want him to quit?
For the sake of argument, say it remains Biden v. Trump. Thereâs a practical political argument to be made to vote for Biden, even if you think that he wonât be able to serve four years. There will be an experienced Democratic VP able to take over and an administration led by thousands of Democratic appointees to continue to carry the load.
Contrast that with the possibility that Trump won’t serve a full term if elected, an event that is also quite likely. Think about whoever is his possible successor, along with an administration filled according to the Project 2025 blueprint can do to America. That seems to be a crash and burn scenario.
Congressman Jim Himes (D-CT) thinks that Biden should step aside. In speaking with MSNBCâs Alex Wagner, she asked what he saw in Bidenâs post-NATO press conference that led him to call for Biden to step aside, Himes responded this way: (emphasis by Wrongo)
â…Alex, it’s really not about tonight. And one of the, really, kind of sick aspects of this moment is that we are watching every speech, every rally, every debate, and saying, how did he do today? And that’s just not the way to think about the presidency of the US.â
In other words, the price of Biden running, as Wrongo said, is to be on tender hooks until Election Day waiting for another ugly shoe to drop. If Democrats decide to keep Biden as their nominee â or, more accurately, if they are not able to pressure him off the ballot â that is what they have to look forward to for the next four months.
This November is not about dueling personalities, middle-of-the-road policy differences, or as some see it, an 81-year-old man being the lesser of two evils compared with a 78-year-old man. Itâs a referendum on our democracy, and a choice between a trustworthy public servant who can be counted on to uphold American values and a felon who wants to push the country into authoritarianism.
Enough! Itâs time to take a break from Bidenâs political shortcomings. Itâs now Trumpâs turn to release his detailed medical records. To release his tax returns. To hold an hour-long foreign policy press conference.
Hey, letâs relax, itâs still the summer, and you can spare a few moments to forget about the election and stressing about whoever Trump plans to appoint as his VP next week. Itâs time for our Saturday Soother. Here at the Mansion of Wrong, weâre enjoying temperate weather, unlike most of the US. Rain is promised and occasional showers, but this week, the days have been warm and dry.
To help you leave the political world behind for a few minutes, grab a chair in an air-conditioned room and watch and listen to âThe Barcarolleâ from Offenbach’s Les Contes d’Hoffmann. Here, soprano Fatma Said and mezzo-soprano Marianne Crebassa duet to great effect. They are joined by the Philharmonic Orchestra of Monte Carlo, conducted by Sascha Goetzel:
This is probably what heaven sounds like on a Saturday evening.
Mollidgewock campground, Erol, NH – July 2024 photo by Amber Lavaliee. Wrongo and Ms. Right lived in NH for 12 years. This is a quintessential scene.
With all the hot air about Bidenâs âwill he or wonât heâ moment, the subject of the Conservative rightâs Project 2025 has not truly been covered by the media. From Judd Legum:
âProject 2025 is a radical blueprint for a potential second Trump administration, spearheaded by the right-wing Heritage Foundation. The plan calls for withdrawing approval for the abortion pill, banning pornography, slashing corporate taxes, abolishing the Department of Education, replacing thousands of experienced federal workers with political appointees, imposing a “biblically based⊠definition of marriage and families,” and placing the Justice Department and other independent agencies under the direct control of the president.â
âProject 2025 is Trumpâs roadmap, written by Trump loyalists and embraced by Trumpâs constellation of sycophants, fellow travelers, hangers-on, and job seekers. It will be the driving force of what Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts boasted was ââŠa second American revolution.â (Also, in keeping with all things MAGA, Roberts dropped an unsubtle threat into the statement, adding the revolution would be âbloodless if the left allows it to be.â)â
This lefty doesnât plan to let its adoption be âbloodlessâ.
While Trump has recently disavowed knowledge of the Project or its authors, of the 38 people responsible for writing and editing Project 2025, 31 were appointed or nominated to positions in the Trump administration and transition. So Trumpâs claim that he has “nothing to do” with the people who created Project 2025 is another lie: Over 81% had formal roles in his first administration. When Trump denies something, you should always take it as a full confession of his absolute guilt.
Trumpâs name appears in Project 2025 312 times. Thatâs a yuuge coincidence, since he says he doesnât know anything about it. More from Rick Wilson:
âI was able to confirm late last week that this decision by Trump to condemn Project 2025 was a deliberate effort prepared by campaign strategist Chris LaCivita and Trumpâs pollster Tony Fabrizio after research came back showing that Project 2025 is poisonous with groups outside the hardest core of the MAGA base. The same research led the Trump campaign to demand that the RNC remove the national abortion ban plank (and other policy statements) from the 2024 GOP Platform.â
And just like that, the GOP 2024 platform wonât include abortion. From the WaPo:
âRepublican delegates adopted presumptive nominee Donald Trumpâs proposed convention platform at a meeting in Milwaukee on Monday, abandoning long-held positions on abortion and same-sex marriage while embracing new plans for mass deportation and a new opposition to changing the retirement age for Social Security.â
The strategy is to bury what Republicans plan to do by having the plausible deniability of the GOP platform.
Back to Project 2025. From Navigator Research, who says that when people know more about it their opposition to it grows:
âOpposition to Project 2025 grows as people learn more about the plan. After reading 19 proposed policies for Project 2025, opposition grows from 49% to 63% (net +14) while support for the plan declines from 31% to 24% (net -7%).â
Now the report is over 900 pages long, so itâs gonna take some time to digest. Hereâs a chart:
Still, given the mediaâs focus on trying to drive Biden out of the presidential race, very few Americans know much about Project 2025. Hereâs what Navigator found:
From Navigator:
âSeven in ten Americans have not heard enough to have an opinion about Project 2025, but after hearing about it, two in three Americans become opposed. 71% initially donât know enough to have an opinion of Project 2025….Additionally, nearly four in five Americans report not having heard anything about Project 2025 either when described as âa series of conservative policy proposals aimed at reshaping the executive branch of the federal government if a Republican is elected president in 2024â
Black Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Democrats are most likely to have heard âa lotâ or âsomeâ about Project 2025, though fewer than two in five have actually heard about it (30%, 39%, and 33%, respectively).
Navigator grouped the Project 2025 policies by what percent, in the view of survey participants, would âhurt the countryâ and which were âstrongly opposedâ by survey participants. They found that eight of the nineteen polices were the most unpopular and harmful:
The list of the most unpopular policies includes:
Stopping overtime pay
Eliminating pre-existing conditions from health insurance
Adding new taxes on health insurance
Ending drug price negotiations
Eliminating head start
Cutting Social Security
Monitoring pregnancies by the states
Eliminating NOAA (the federal agency that tracks hurricanes) called the NWS above
But check out the policies that are just below those in the above chart. There are some beauties there as well.
This makes it clear that the threat to our nation is Trump and his minions, not Biden’s health. Maybe more people will pay attention to what Project 2025is, now that Trump is denying he knows anything about it. He’s drawn attention to it, by his denial, and it’s getting more widely known. Let’s hope the more people learn about it, the more they will see it’s horror.
The very public navel-gazing by the media and Democrats over Bidenâs capacity for the last couple of weeks has overshadowed the social media attacks on Project 2025. Project 2025 means to lobotomize government agencies by replacing career civil servants with far-right ideologues loyal to Dear Leader. Michael Lewis in his book âThe Fifth Riskâ wrote that government manages a portfolio of risks that requires âmission-drivenâ careerists, experts with a dedication to the work, not to making big money from it. Donald Trumpâs 2016 administration came to Washington DC to upend that system, to exploit it for profit. They abandoned data collection on anything Trumpers opposed, the NYT review explained:
â…like climate change or food safety regulations, or that they didnât care about, like poverty, or stuff that they assumed were government boondoggles, which was most everything not involving the Pentagon.â
Look at it this way: If you decide to vote FOR the people pushing Program 2025, Trump will assume youâre all for it. And it will become the law of the land. You will NEVER regain the Rights you will lose in that process! If you vote against P-2025, you can still have your Rights as Americans which have been fought for over the past 250 years.
Now, can somebody please help the Biden campaign re-write their weak tea warning about Project 2025 on the Biden campaign website? (https://joebiden.com/project2025/) The headline is almost a paragraph long. The introduction is boring and wordy. All the truly frightening points about Project 2025 are listed so far below, few visitors will scroll down that far.
The Navigator does a great service by highlighting not only whatâs in the text of Project 2025, theyâve shown it to Americans and have learned just how badly people think about it once they learn whatâs in there.
Ledgewater, Cashiers, NC – July 2024 photo by Mark Krancer
Wrongo and Ms. Right have spent a great few days enjoying the company of kids and spouses. While the subject of the 2024 election was on everyoneâs mind, it only occasionally broke through into whatever we were discussing at the time.
All the while, the chorus of media and pundits calling for Biden to step aside has continued. Back on June 30, Wrongo said this:
âThe NYT has an editorial saying that Biden should stand down for the good of the country. Even though the idea has been rejected by Biden, that thought is alive and will play out over the next few weeks. And for better or for worse, it will largely gain or lose traction based on poll results…â
Over the July Fourth weekend, more Congress members and the Massachusetts governor called on Biden to cede the nomination. There also were reports that Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) was organizing a group of Democratic senators to urge Biden to step aside.
What comes next? Biden will stay, or decide to yield to the pressure and go. And Biden or not, the media is going to harp on the shortcomings of whoever it is, no matter what. Hereâs the Democratâs dilemma:
In some sense, we are like online voters on a TV reality show. So far, the response by the leaders of the Democratic Party has been pathetic. Theyâre cowering in their offices and texting us for more money. This is the state of play in July 2024: Weâre presented with a yes/no option for the presidential candidate, and are told to: a) send money and b) vote hard in November. In truth we have only limited agency when it comes to deciding on Biden or another candidate as the Democratic nominee.
Starting today, pressure will continue to mount, since Congress returns and the pols will get confronted by reporters asking what their positions are on Biden.
Paradoxically, Biden has narrowed Trumpâs lead in key swing states, according to a new survey by Bloomberg/Morning Consult, published on Saturday: (emphasis by Wrongo)
â…Trump led…Biden by only 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, in the critical states needed to win the November election. That’s the smallest gap since the poll began last October. Biden now leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. Heâs within the pollâs statistical margin of error in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, and is farthest behind in…Pennsylvania.â
The poll also showed Biden narrowed the gap with independent voters, with Trump and Biden being tied at 40%. In a previous poll, Trump had led Biden by 44% to 36%. Hereâs a visual from the survey:
This poll is the first comprehensive survey of the states most likely to decide the outcome in the Electoral College since Bidenâs debate disaster on June 27. They surveyed 4,902 registered voters in seven swing states: 781 registered voters in Arizona, 790 in Georgia, 694 in Michigan, 452 in Nevada, 696 in North Carolina, 794 in Pennsylvania and 695 in Wisconsin. The surveys were conducted online from July 1 to July 5. The statistical margin of error is plus/minus 3 percentage points in Georgia and Pennsylvania; 4 percentage points in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and 5 percentage points in Nevada.
The poll showed that Trump also has hurdles to overcome: Some 62% of voters said heâs dangerous, an increase from 59% in February. That comes after the NY jury found him guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records.
And what happens if Biden steps aside?
The only viable replacement for Biden at this point is VP Kamala Harris. Wrongoâs informal surveys over the past year showed very little support for her, although there is zero reason to think that Democrats would vote against her in a two-way race vs. Trump.
And replacing Biden with Harris would remove the concerns about Bidenâs age and mental sharpness. Maybe there would be new concerns, but we’d know for a fact that the age/capacity concerns held by many moderate/swing voters and many in the Democratic party would disappear.
Thinking about Harris:
Recent polls suggest Harris might do better than Biden against Trump, although it could still be a tight contest. A CNN poll released on July 2 found voters favor Trump over Biden by 49% to 43%. Harris also trailed Trump, 47% to 45%, but within the margin of error. It also found independents back Harris 43%-40% over Trump, and moderate voters of both parties prefer her 51%-39%.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll also taken after the debate found Harris and Trump were nearly tied, with 42% supporting her and 43% backing him. The Reuters/Ipsos polls typically have a margin of error of about 3.5 percentage points.
For Democrats, the answer to the dilemma is deciding about risk management. Itâs clear that all polling suggests that Biden will face a very tough uphill battle to beat Trump in November. Itâs unclear whether Harris would do better. So Dems are dealing with the devil you know vs the devil you don’t.
And many Dems are genuinely concerned that they can’t win with the devil they know, and so want to take a risk with the devil they donât really know.
There are plenty of ways to think about this. Sports fans know that no one looks down on the great athlete who loses to Father Time. They only look down on an athlete who hangs on too long. Dems are no longer fighting just a story about Biden being âoldâ. Itâs become about Biden losing control, and Americans donât like that kind of story at all.
A Harris-lead ticket could change the conversation, adding stories about women, young people, people of color, and critically, how Americans have had to adjust in the face of change and disruption. Many voters could rally to that story. The Party faithful could build coalitions around it.
With the exception of Biden himself, Harris has served in elected office â as a district attorney, state attorney general, senator and vice-president â longer than any Democrat elected to the White House in Wrongoâs lifetime, except for LBJ. And as a former prosecutor, she can make the case against Trump, a convicted felon.
Finally, think about a Harris/Shapiro ticket: PAâs governor Josh Shapiro has consistently logged high approval ratings. This is the crucial swing state that the Democrats have to win to keep Trump out of the White House. Â A January Quinnipiac University poll showed Shapiro had a 59% job approval rating, including 36% of Republicans who said they approved of his job performance, compared to Bidenâs 40% overall approval rating in the state.
Time to wake up, America! Weâre in that crucial period between Trumpâs first coup attempt and his second. The Democratsâ dilemma must be solved ASAP. To help you wake up, watch and listen to Coldplay perform their big hit âFix Youâ live on June 29, 2024 at Glastonbury 2024.
You will note Michael J. Fox joining the band onstage, playing guitar from a wheelchair. If you watch at 3:01, he does a kick that launches the crescendo in the song. European audiences are the best.
This video captures different people, different nationalities, different beliefs, collectively enjoying and engaging joyfully. No hate, no violence, just pure emotion.
Sample Lyrics:
When you try your best but you don’t succeed
When you get what you want but not what you need
When you feel so tired but you can’t sleep
Stuck in reverse
When the tears come streaming down your face
When you lose something you can’t replace
When you love someone but it goes to waste
Could it be worse?
Lights will guide you home
And ignite your bones
And I will try to fix you
Broad-tailed hummingbirds mating, northern CO â June 2024 photo by Hilary Bralove. This is what John Roberts and his radical Conservative associates are doing to American democracy.
âWhat is the essence of America? Finding and maintaining that perfect, delicate balance between freedom âtoâ and freedom âfromââ âMarilyn Vos Savant
The American colonies fought to get free from a king who ruled with absolute power. And on Monday, once again in America, the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) in substance overthrew the American Revolution by saying that any US president could have the rights of a modern-day king, broadly immune from prosecution under the law for his/her acts.
This betrayal of the American revolutionaries, Founders and Framers was delivered in an opinion by Chief Justice John Roberts on behalf of the Conservative radicals who make up the majority of the SCOTUS. It hurts even more because it is designed to protect the most corrupt and dangerous person to ever hold the office of President of the US. Looking at the opinion, it becomes clear that the Conservative majority is more concerned with concentrating power in the hands of the president than in how a president might abuse that power.
This usurping of power is not implied anywhere in the Constitution, nor implied by the centuries of precedent in opinions by the SCOTUS. For you fans of Originalism, remember this, written by historian Joseph Ellis in 2018: (emphasis by Wrongo)
âMost members of Americaâs founding generation would have regarded this situation as strange. If you read the debates among the delegates at the Constitutional Convention of 1787, and then read their prescriptions for judicial power in Article III of the Constitution, it becomes clear that the last thing the 39 signers of the document wanted was for the Supreme Court to become supreme.â
Bu real power in this country no longer lies in the People. It now resides at the Supreme Court.
For generations, doomsayers have warned us about the imminent collapse of the American republic, not by outside forces, but by inside elements gnawing at the nationâs gut like a cancer. Watch out for the Communists. Watch out for the foreigners swarming our borders.Watch out for leftists. Watch out for the Jews. Watch out for the Muslims. Watch out for rock and roll. Watch out for Disney.
Now the US as we knew it is tottering. But the collapse wasnât caused by any of those things. It was caused by radical ideologues who knew how to pervert the very mechanism that was supposed to ensure the stability of American democracy: Its system of checks and balances. You know, the three branches of the federal government empowered to crack the whip on each other, and all of them answerable to The People. But for all their wisdom, the Founders were unable to foresee that two centuries on, there would be plotters and schemers who found a means to exploit the chinks in the wall. And possibly to bring the whole thing tumbling down.
âThis is a profound change to our fundamental lawâan amendment to the Constitution…â
Hereâs a brief summary by Robert Hubbell: (Emphasis by Hubbell)
âToday, the Supreme Court invented a rule (found nowhere in the Constitution) granting presidents immunity from criminal prosecution as follows:
Core presidential functions are absolutely immune (âconclusive and preclusiveâ), for example, when granting pardons.
Official acts are preemptively immune from criminal prosecution for a presidentâs acts within the outer perimeter of his official responsibilityâwhich is almost anything tangentially related to the presidentâs enumerated powers
Evidentiary rules. The Court also imposed two evidentiary rules on prosecutors seeking to navigate the above two rules:
A prosecutor may not use official acts as evidence in a prosecution of unofficial acts.
A prosecutor may not examine a presidentâs motives in attempting to distinguish between official and unofficial acts.â
HCR reminds us that at his confirmation hearing in 2005, nowâChief Justice John Roberts said:
âI believe that no one is above the law under our system and that includes the president. The president is fully bound by the law, the Constitution, and statutes.â
But heâs now changed his mind. Robertsâ opinion went even further than Trump had requested. And instead of reciting what the SCOTUS has now allowed the president to do without fear, letâs take a look at how we got here:
A jury found that Trump committed 34 felonies to help win in 2016.
After committing those crimes, once he took office, Trump then appointed three Supreme Court justices.
Those justices then delayed efforts to hold Trump accountable for allegedly committing more crimes to hold onto power after losing the 2020 election.
Now, those same justices support the idea that Trump enjoys absolute immunity for âofficial actsââthereby drastically weakening efforts to hold Trump accountable.
One Constitutional flaw the founders left us is the Electoral College (EC). Its original purpose was to advance the interests of slaveholders. And while we no longer have slaveholders, their spiritual descendants now control the Supreme Court.
While the EC was supposed to safeguard against the âtyranny of the majorityâ, it has instead promoted the tyranny of the minority. The EC allowed the Supreme Court to be hijacked by authoritarians. Five of its current members were appointed by presidents who lost the popular vote, and another who helped one of those popular vote losers, GW Bush, ascend to the Oval Office. That is Clarence Thomas, also married to a conspirator in the Jan. 6 insurrectionist plot.
This has cost us control of our politics and our courts. Control is now held by a minority, supported by some technocrats in the middle, and enabled by the apathy of most of the rest of us.
Worse, those in the current minority are extremists. The Supreme Court is now no different from the Senate: An explicitly partisan, supra-legislative body that, because of the EC, has a built-in bias for the rural party.
It took just eight years for a game show host who was unable to win a plurality of the vote to expose our entire political order as rotten and decayed. He demonstrated that the impeachment mechanism was a dead letter and then got the Supreme Court to declare that the president was, by definition, above the law.
How do we now save our Constitutional republic?
During this Fourth of July week, letâs remember that our common enemy is the partisan power of a partisan minority. This weekend is our opportunity to set a battle plan against that common enemy. That would be a plan to maintain control of Congress for the next two years. The Democrats are just five seats away from having majority control of the House of Representatives. It is a heavier lift to retain control of the Senate, but it isnât beyond possibility. As Wrongo said the other day, focus on these seats may also help push Biden over the goal line. And even if it doesnât, the incoming president Trump would be effectively blocked from implementing much of his agenda.
Ultimately, we need political power to dilute the power of this Extreme Court that has taken control of the duties of the other branches of government. If thereâs a better argument for voting for Biden (or anyone else whoâs not Trump) Wrongo doesnât know what it is.
There is no option, we have to resist, no matter what. We have to fight.
At this difficult, traumatic time, we must convert the shock of this latest extreme judicial overreach into action, to achieve an overwhelming victory in November. Just as Dobbs fueled a massive turnout, so too should Trump v. US.
(This is Wrongoâs last column before the Independence Day holiday. The next column will be published on Monday, 7/8)
Rainstorm, Blue Ridge Mountains, Blue Ridge Parkway, NC – June 2024 photo by David R. Robinson
Itâs a new day and weâre trying to pick up the pieces after what happened in last nightâs debate between Trump and Biden. Hereâs a recap by Rick Wilson, Lincoln Project co-founder:
âItâs late June, and Joe Biden went on stage with a felon who tore down America, told 500 sundry lies, bragged about ending Roe v. Wade, defended January 6th, denied having sex with a porn star, and promised to betray Ukraine. And Joe Biden had a bad, bad night.â
Biden stumbled over his words, and Trumpâs barrage of lies went unchecked. On Twitter and on cable news, the political pundit class had a collective freakout. From political journalist John Nichols:
âCNN is illustrating how a âdebateâ when the moderators reject the basic responsibility of fact-checking in real time, and refuse to challenge blatantly false statements, is not a debate. Itâs…chaos where lies are given equal footing with the truth.â
When Wrongo heard that CNN wouldnât be doing any real time fact-checking on Thursday afternoon, it was clear how the debate would go. Only now, the Democrats and Biden canât tell people they didn’t see what they saw.
A lot of media people are SHOCKED at Biden’s performance. Dem consultants see that there is blood in the water and the sharks are circling. So many senior Dems are saying that Biden should step aside. The options are pretty simple:
Convince Biden to drop out of the race.
Stick with Biden and hope his debate performance doesnât turn many voters away.
There are LOTS of Dems who want option #1. But it will be impossible to get Biden to drop out if he doesnât want to do it. And there are NO signs that he wants to it.
Any plan to ease Biden out would likely require the involvement of Jill Biden and Barack Obama, along with assembling a pre-fab, pre-convention ticket acceptable to the Partyâs delegates.
Otherwise, it would be a free-for-all. Even with Biden and Obamaâs backing, thatâs a huge undertaking with a 10 out of 10 degree of difficulty. It also entails massive risk with the convention delegates, the public, along with the challenges of spinning up a presidential campaign from a standing start. No Democrat on the sidelines today has the national organization in place to make a credible presidential run. They would have to take over the Biden campaignâs assets and move on from there.
Get a grip: One candidate on the stage lied from start to finish. And no one is suggesting that he drop out.
The media has been on the verge of burying Biden because of his age for months. That was never more true than on CNN on Thursday night, where their coifed pundit-moderators ignored the elephants in the room â that one of the two men standing at the podiums was a convicted felon, the leader of a coup attempt, an alleged thief of national security documents, who was earlier this year found liable in a civil court for rape, and has promised to usher in a vengeful authoritarian regime if he returns to office.
Instead, they launched the debate with their usual dead horse: the deficit and taxes. More from Wilson:
âHistory is replete with bad debate performances: Clintonâs first outing in 1992, George W. Bushâs Boston groaner (I was there, and it was awful), and Obamaâs first showing against John McCain. Debates matter until they donât, but they matter most to the chattering and online classes.â
All of those debaters won the presidency.
Biden is still overwhelmingly likely to run for reelection; heâs still is in a position to be re-elected. Biden, even diminished, is more right than wrong, that at this point he represents the Partyâs best chance to keep Trump out of the Oval Office.
Biden did the best he could with an opponent who is unconstrained by the truth and moderators perfectly willing to allow Trump to lie. Unfortunately while Biden started weak, he finished stronger, while Trump started strong, he finished weak.
But Wrongo assumes that many people stopped watching after the first break.
So while some Democrats are in a panic about Joe Bidenâs debate performance, we need to get a clue and check in with reality. It was probable that Biden was unwell and fatigued. Imagine how well youâd perform under the same conditions, regardless of your age.
Swallow your panic and get to work, doing whatever you can. Because for many Americans, this is personal. Your guy had a bad night. But the sun is out today. Move forward. Stop being afraid of your own shadow. We’re running against an insurrectionist and a felon. Biden is old. Stop being afraid of it.
Weâre having our Saturday Soother on Friday this week, for the obvious reason that itâs necessary. On the Fields of Wrong, a very large tree fell across the long driveway of two of our neighbors. It says a lot that five or so of the men in the neighborhood worked together over two days to reopen the road. It did require borrowed and rented capital equipment: a scoop loader, a tractor and a wood chipper.
Itâs going to be a cooler and drier Friday and Saturday in Connecticut. So letâs grab a seat in the shade and do our best not to think about the Supreme Courtâs continuing efforts to end democracy as we used to know it. Try instead to take a few moments to gather ourselves for the slings and arrows of the week to come.
Start by listening to âUncle Johnâs Bandâ by the Grateful Dead. It started appearing in their concerts in1969. The band recorded it for their 1970 album âWorkingman’s Deadâ. It was written by guitarist Jerry Garcia and lyricist Robert Hunter. The tune was played more than 330 times by the Dead and the lyrics seem to Wrongo to be valuable today:
Sample Lyrics:
Well, the first days are the hardest days
Don’t you worry anymore
‘Cause when life looks like Easy Street
There is danger at your door
Think this through with me
Let me know your mind
Woah, oh, what I want to know
Is are you kind?
Goddamn, well, I declare Have you seen the like? Their walls are built of cannonballs Their motto is “don’t tread on me”
Come hear Uncle John’s band
Playing to the tide
Come with me, or go alone
He’s come to take his children home
Dinghies and roses, Kennebunkport, ME – June 2024 photo by Eric Storm Photo
Glad to be back! Wrongo and Ms. Right spent a long weekend with family in Napa, CA.
This week should see many more decisions announced by the Supreme Court. The National Review has the remaining lineup:
âThere should be 21 opinions remaining because there are 23 cases left, including two pairs (the Chevron challenges and the Florida and Texas social-media laws) that are consolidated and likely to be decided together. We will likely get at least five or six opinions this week, maybe as many as nine. The Court will need to schedule more opinion days next week, probably at least three of them if it intends to wrap up the term by the end of the week; otherwise, it could spill over to July 1 or 2.â
And NRâs Dan McLaughlin gives us a scorecard of which justices have written this termâs opinions:
â…Justice Sonia Sotomayor has thus far published seven opinions representing the decision of the Court, and Justice Clarence Thomas six; it will be surprising if we get more from Thomas and more surprising if we get more from Sotomayor. By contrast, Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Neil Gorsuch have each published just two opinions with the decision of the Court, and Justice Amy Coney Barrett three; they will likely have more….Thereâs only one case left from…November â Rahimi, the Second Amendment case â and the likeliest author of that opinion is either Roberts or Elena Kagan, neither of whom have published an opinion for the Court from the cases argued in that sitting.â
So much for analyzing the lineup. The real issue remaining is what the Supremes are going to do with the presidential immunity case, Trump v. United States. Itâs taken so long to hear from the Court on this that many are suspicious. From Leah Litman at the NYT: (emphasis by Wrongo)
âFor those looking for the hidden hand of politics in what the Supreme Court does, thereâs plenty of reason for suspicion on Donald Trumpâs as-yet-decided immunity case given its urgency. There are, of course, explanations that have nothing to do with politics for why a ruling still hasnât been issued. But the reasons to think something is rotten at the court are impossible to ignore.â
Litman reminds us of the history of the case:
âOn Feb. 28, the justices agreed to hear…Trumpâs claim that he is immune from prosecution on charges that he plotted to subvert the 2020 election. The court scheduled oral arguments in the case for the end of April. That eight-week interval is much quicker than the ordinary Supreme Court briefing process, which usually extends for at least 10 weeks. But itâs considerably more drawn out than the schedule the court established earlier this year on a challenge from Colorado after that state took Mr. Trump off its presidential primary ballot. The court agreed to hear arguments on the case a mere month after accepting it and issued its decision less than a month after the argument. Mr. Trump prevailed, 9-0.â
Now nearly two months have passed since the immunity case was argued , long enough to remove the possibility of either the stolen documents case or the Jan. 6 case even being started before the November election. More from Litman:
â…indeed, at this point, even if the court rules that Mr. Trump has limited or no immunity, it is unlikely a verdict will be delivered before the election.â
FYI, the Nixon tapes case was decided 16 days after oral argument. Michael Podhorzer calls the decision delay election interference:
âBy shielding Donald Trump from standing trial before a jury in two of his felony cases, Trumpâs three appointments to the Supreme Court, along with the even more MAGA Justices Alito and Thomas and Judge Aileen Cannon, have already irreparably interfered in the 2024 election.â
But, according to Podhorzer, the Supreme Courtâs actions have actually been worse than that:
âAt no point since World War II has there been a 5-4 partisan ruling to make elections more democratic â not to expand voting rights, limit campaign finance, or constrain gerrymandering.â
He also reminds us that the problem started with Bush v. Gore:
âBeginning with Bush v. Gore, on at least a dozen occasions, SCOTUS has radically altered election law on a partisan 5-4 or 6-3 basis â often overriding bipartisan legislation enacted by Congress, and often relying on spurious facts or questions not even presented in the cases.â
Podhorzer includes the following graph showing the number of important election-related rulings each Court made, broken down by the ideology of the justices. The dark blue represents liberal consensus rulings; the dark red represents conservative rulings where the majority consisted only of Republican nominees:
Podhorzer closes with a very interesting analysis of how the Court has been hijacked by the Federalist Society and the Conservative Right, such that recent appointments to the Supreme Court have not reflected the demographics of the nation: (emphasis by Wrongo)
âJustices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett are the only five of the 116 justices to serve on the Supreme Court to have been confirmed by senators representing less than one half of the US population. Only John Roberts among current GOP justices was confirmed by senators representing a clear majority of Americans.â
More: (emphasis by Wrongo)
âFurthermore, of all the justices to serve in the last century and a half, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett are the only ones to have been named by a president who did not win the popular vote.â
This is the tyranny of the minority, and yet another reason why the November election is so important: Itâs likely that the next president will appoint at least two new justices.
And our way out of the currently tipped scales of justice by the growing corrupt autocratic cabal at the Supreme Court begins with Democratic voters understanding the stakes when they go to the polls.
Sunrise, Duck, NC – June 2024 photo by Nate Waddell
This should be a trivial story, except it isnât. The WaPo reported this week that two former law enforcement officers who defended the US Capitol from rioters on Jan. 6 were jeered on Wednesday by state GOP lawmakers during a visit to the Pennsylvaniaâs House of Representatives:
âFormer US Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn and former sergeant Aquilino Gonell were introduced on the floor Wednesday as âheroesâ by House Speaker Joanna McClinton (D) for having âbravely defended democracy in the United States Capitol against rioters and insurrection on January 6. As the two men â both of whom were injured by rioters on Jan. 6 â were introduced, the House floor descended into chaos. According to Democratic lawmakers, several GOP lawmakers hissed and booed, with a number of Republicans walking out of the chamber in protest.â
In this specific instance of MAGA misbehavior, two things are significant. First, the Pennsylvania House has 203 members split between 102 Democrats and 101 Republicans. This is very similar to the polarizing political split in the US House. Second, MAGAs acting out underscores just how polarizing the Jan. 6 insurrection has become with Republicans.
Once again, weâre seeing that MAGA Republican politicians support very few of the historical guardrails of our politics. Wrongo used to think that most Republicans were sincere in their beliefs in a certain moral standard; in fiscal responsibility, in honoring those who served in the military, and respecting police officers and other authority. But over time, every one of those supposed standards has been trampled, and while Trump has been the single biggest perpetrator, all of today’s the loudmouth grifters on the Right also share in this ignominy. Itâs doubtful that any argument they make is in good faith.
The irony is that the MAGA Republicans readily abandoned their long-standing heritage of freedom, of democratic rule, of the fundamentals of law dating from the Magna Carta, and of British common law. Theyâve replaced it all with the Ethos of Trump. Their patriotism, like Trumpâs business prowess, is a sham. Its disposable if political advantage is on the line. See Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-AL) opinions on Ukraine if you doubt this.
And commitment to the principle of equal justice under law? That has been replaced with the saying: âFor my friends, everything, for my enemies, the law.â
It’s nothing short of amazing how otherwise principled Republican politicians have flocked to Trumpâs side. Their moves started slowly, but picked up steam during his presidency. Now they’re fully espousing whatever Trump says. And since his conviction in NY for fraud, it seems revenge is what’s driving them. Their willingness to shrug off a juryâs ruling and characterize it as illegitimate isnât a new demonstration of their disregard for the rule of law. Weâve already seen this disregard in two impeachment trials, and in their disavowing any importance to the Jan. 6 attempted insurrection.
The MAGA movement has become a full-blown fascist enterprise before our eyes. The response weâre seeing to Trumpâs conviction is bringing it more out in the open. Despite all of Trumpâs bankruptcies, his greatest achievement in bankruptcy is in his completing the moral bankruptcy of the Republican Party. But Republicans still hope to re-elect their convicted leader to the White House. Now a felon, Trump cannot possess a gun, but they want to hand him the US military and nuclear arsenal.
Republicans ought to know that thereâs no such thing as selling five percent of your soul to Satan. More likely, the Devil is in a Rent-to-Own relationship with the GOP.
Some decent news for your Saturday. Post the Trump verdict, the NYT resurveyed the participants in its last poll of 2,000 people. They found a perceptible shift toward Biden. It was only a couple of points but whatâs meaningful about it is who shifted. Nate Cohn wrote:
âPerhaps not surprisingly, the swings were relatively pronounced among young, nonwhite, less engaged and low-turnout voters. In fact, 20% of Mr. Trumpâs previous supporters who are Black now say they back Mr. Biden.â
Overall, Mr. Trump retained 93% of voters who told the NYT that they backed him in a previous survey. But in a close election, losing 7% of your supporters could be decisive. More:
âA potentially crucial sliver of Mr. Trumpâs former supporters â 3% â now told us theyâll back Mr. Biden, while another 4% say theyâre now undecided.â
Also, Trump only leads Biden by 4 points in Florida in the latest poll of the state by Fox News:
Biden is just outside the margin of error, but both of them have slipped slightly since the 2020 election. It should give some faint hope to Democrats, since Florida also has a November ballot initiative that would restore abortion rights. If the Florida initiative passes, abortion will be legalized up to 24 weeks. If it gets anywhere near the 60% required to become law, Biden has a chance in Florida. Trump doesnât have a path to 270 electoral votes without Florida!
All we have to do is vote.
As usual, weâre heading into the weekend with mostly bad and a smattering of good news. Itâs now time for our Saturday Soother, where we unplug from the social media thatâs trying to murder our brains, and instead, spend a few moments of relaxation. Here on the Fields of Wrong, weâre attempting to turn a Âœ acre patch of our lawn into a meadow that will attract pollinators. So far, the grass is very tall, and there are occasional flowers in bloom. Wrongo planted a few more this week, disturbing the bluebirds in one of our nest boxes in the process.
Itâs going to be sunny and warm in the Northeast, so grab a seat under a tree. Now, watch and listen to the late, great Jeff Beck perform âNessun Dormaâ, on the Fender guitar. Itâs the wildly popular aria from Pucciniâs opera âTurandotâ played here at the Crossroads Blues festival in February 2010. Beck also performed âNessun Dormaâ on many other stages. Beck died in January 2023. At the time, a fellow musician said…âIf you haven’t heard this version of Nessun Dorma you need to because it can move you to tears.â Strongly recommended:
