Category: Monday Wake Up Call

Destruction of Government by Elon (DOGE)

The Daily Escape:

It used to be that In America, one truism of politics is that Social Security (SS) is the “third rail”: You mess with it at your political peril. Republicans have never liked Social Security. They voted against it when it was passed in 1935, and they have been trying to get rid of it in the 90 years since then.

But the problem is that SS is one of the most successful programs created by the government. It has reduced poverty among seniors from nearly 40% to only about 10% (and SS provides at least a subsistence level of income to that remaining 10%). It provides an income for people with disabilities who cannot work. And it has never added a penny to the national debt. Justifiably, it is a very popular program with Americans.

Because of its popularity, Republicans have never been able to abolish the program ̶   but they keep trying. In 2005, GW Bush wanted to privatize SS (putting seniors at risk by putting their money in the stock market). That led to a huge political blowback, and Bush dropped the idea.

Across the years, Trump has consistently promised not to touch Social Security, except now Musk’s DOGE may break Trump’s promise. Musk’s agency almost cut off phone  service for people filing SS claims, and stopped only after the WaPo raised a stink:

“The Social Security Administration…abandoned plans it was considering to end phone service for millions of Americans filing retirement and disability claims after The Washington Post reported that Elon Musk’s US DOGE Service team was weighing the change to root out alleged fraud…The shift would have directed elderly and disabled people to rely on the internet and in-person field offices to process their claims, curtailing a service that 73 million Americans have relied on for decades to access earned government benefits.

However, Social Security and White House officials said the administration will still move ahead with another far more limited element of the original proposal: Customers will no longer be able to change a direct deposit routing number or other bank information by phone.”

The phone service change may not be happening, but Elon is still gunning for Social Security. This is from March 11:

“Elon Musk pushed debunked theories about Social Security on Monday while describing federal benefit programs as rife with fraud, suggesting they will be a primary target in his crusade to reduce government spending….“Most of the federal spending is entitlements,” Musk told the Fox Business Network. “That’s the big one to eliminate.’”

Musk also called Social Security “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time”, and has promised to cut the Social Security Administration’s workforce by 12%.

DOGE can’t actually abolish Social Security. But it can seriously damage it to the extent that the agency wouldn’t be able to deliver checks on time, wouldn’t be able to help recipients make needed changes, and won’t be able to effectively register new retirees. And once the agency can no longer function effectively, Congressional Republicans will step in to “reform” it. They will do that by substantially cutting benefits, or privatizing the program. Probably the latter, because that will benefit moguls on Wall Street.

In February, Trump reassured the nation that:

“Social Security will not be touched, it will only be strengthened, and an unnamed White House official told NBC that “Musk’s personal opinions about Social Security have no impact on Trump’s policies.”

Is Trump really willing to mess with Social Security payments? And if not, why is his administration acting like it’s getting ready to do that? What would be the political upside to broadcasting that you’re going to screw with America’s favorite entitlement program, and then not actually doing it?

What is clear is that the Trump administration doesn’t particularly seem like they’re governing with an eye to future elections. Old people vote in large numbers, and if you stop them from getting the checks they need to live — or even threaten to do so — you’re putting yourself in grave electoral danger.

And if Trump’s team isn’t worried about future elections…well, that’s even more deeply concerning.

The DOGE effort is the newest attempt by Republicans to attack Social Security. It gives the GOP some cover by letting DOGE do the dirty work. But only SS has the huge budget that Republicans want to get their hands on.

This is the latest effort by Republicans to get rid of Social Security (and Medicare and Medicaid). By gutting these funds, they will have the money for huge giveaways to the rich (and especially the super-rich).

They have always been the party of and for the rich. They really don’t care about the needs of the poor, the working class, or the middle class.

This attack on Social Security proves that.

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Resist, No Matter What

The Daily Escape:

We’ve got to stop awfulizing. That is, reacting to every Trump move as if it is the worst thing he’s come up with yet and then jumping on social media to scream about it. We need to take a step back and remind ourselves that it has only been 12 days since the election, even though it feels like a lifetime. People have zero patience: their reserves are running low and it’s easy to lash out at the latest Trump outrage. We need to continue to take some time to process what’s happened.

We need to plan our resistance carefully. Not all battles are winnable or even worth the many calories it takes to pursue the fight.

America is different now than it was in 2015 at the dawn of the Trump era. Trump didn’t just win politically; he’s won culturally. We need to reckon with that. There’s no way around it: the results of this presidential election sucked. But when you look at some the other races and questions that were on voters’ ballots, the picture looks at least a little brighter. There were some good things that Democrats scored on Election Day:

  • Voters protected abortion access via ballot measures in seven states. And in Florida, it won a majority of the vote but just fell short of the 60% needed for passage.
  • Alaska and Missouri raised the minimum wage via ballot measure, while Missouri also implemented paid sick leave. Pro-worker policies are popular across the country, and Democrats who run on them can win even in red areas.
  • Swing state Democrats performed well. In North Carolina, Democrats won five statewide races and broke the GOP’s supermajority in the legislature. In Pennsylvania, Democrats retained their majorities.

But we should also take note of the apathy of the American public. Approximately 245 million people were eligible to vote this year; approximately 90 million of them didn’t. That is a plurality of Americans who didn’t vote.

In five of the last seven presidential elections, the change candidate has won. At least one Congressional chamber has flipped in the last four elections. We need to think deeply about what went wrong in the last election:

  • Democrats rarely talked about a vision for improving family life. Instead we ceded that to Republicans.
  • We rarely talked about how poor the economy was for the average person.
  • We couldn’t make inroads into the male voting population. In fact, we lost ground with Black and Hispanic men.

According to the AP, Harris had an advantage among women, winning 53% to Trump’s 46%, but that margin was narrower than Biden’s in 2020. In 2020, Biden won 55% of women, while 43% went for Trump. Women under 30 voted for Harris over Trump, but it was a somewhat smaller majority supporting her, at 58%, than Biden in 2020, at 65%. About 9 in 10 Black women and 6 in 10 Latina women backed Harris.

Just under half of white women supported the vice president.

Wrongo’s having a hard time figuring out why women voters did not turn out in bigger numbers in this election for Harris. That women’s rights were part of the stakes this year made it seem obvious that women voters would drive this election. And yet, 46% of women cast a vote for Trump.

We elect women governors, for both Parties, currently the ratio is 8 Dem to 4 GOP. But why not elect them to the presidency, when in many other western countries it’s considered completely routine to elect both women or men to the top spot? What is different about the US?

We’ve tried twice to elect a woman without success. There’s no one reason why Harris did not win. But inflation, which was as big a problem of this magnitude when Jimmy Carter was President, had a lot to do with it. Along with deeply ingrained racism and the framing of our elections as just another form of consumerism, i.e. who you would rather have a beer with.

Republicans now control all three branches of government. They’ve become responsible for everything people hate about politics. Our top political priority is to try to become credible change agents. It’s the first step to winning back the voters we’ve lost.

Wrongo’s late brother Kevin always signed off his emails with “Resist, no matter what”. He was a libertarian, but it works for liberals as well.

David Remnick in the New Yorker spoke about Vaclav Havel and how he resisted:

“During the long Soviet domination of his country, Havel fought valiantly for liberal democracy, inspiring in others acts of resilience and protest. He was imprisoned for that. Then came a time when things changed, when Havel was elected President….Together with a people challenged by years of autocracy, he helped lead his country out of a long, dark time. Our time is now dark, but that, too, can change. It happened elsewhere. It can happen here.

The key question is can we resist like Havel?

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Political Advertising: How Effective Is It?

The Daily Escape:

Wrongo’s calendar says there’s just 29 days to go until Election Day. The campaigns are in high gear, but what are they saying? And is what they’re saying getting through to both their base voters as well as to those who are “persuadable” enough for them to get out to the polls and vote? Time is running out.

Timing is a point raised in this NBC story, which describes that, after having taken the last 76 days to introduce the Vice President to voters, the campaign now plans to ratchet up negative advertising about how unfit Trump is to be President (emphasis by Wrongo).

“Leaning more heavily into negative campaigning is a strategic shift for Harris. While she has routinely been critical of Trump since becoming a candidate in July….Harris campaign officials said they intend to continue laying out her policy positions, background and plans…But emphasizing what Harris campaign officials view as Trump’s major vulnerabilities is seen as possibly one of the only ways to finally win over some voters who haven’t made up their mind in a static race that Democrats want to push in their direction.”

A recent poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs suggests that Harris’ attacks on Trump’s brand of hyper-masculinity appear to be working. As the Daily Beast summarized the findings, respondents:

“…chose Harris 59% over Trump’s 57% when it came to which candidate they felt was tough enough to be president…and favored Harris 55 to 46 % on “which candidate would change the country for the better,” and by 54 to 43% on who “was more likely to fight for them.”

Harris also is micro targeting the message of Trump’s weakness. From the WaPo:

“For the millions of football fans who tuned in from home for Saturday night’s much anticipated matchup between the University of Georgia and the University of Alabama, she also ran a new ad nationally on ABC that hammers home her point.”

The ad says:

“’Winners never back down from a challenge. Champions know it’s anytime, anyplace. But losers, they whine and waffle and take their ball home,’ the narrator says at the start of the spot, over images of a football game and washed-out footage of Trump missing a golf putt. The 30-second ad ends with footage of Harris challenging him to another debate, with the words “When we fight, we win” hanging on a sign in the background.”

The money quote:

“Well, Donald, I do hope you’ll reconsider to meet me on the debate stage. If you’ve got something to say, say it to my face,…

Harris also posted the ad on Trump’s Truth Social media platform.

Marcy Wheeler quotes CNN’s David Wright who tracks political spending by the candidates about where the money is headed in this final month as the ad wars intensify:

“You can see how each side is placing bets on their best path to 270 electoral votes. In the first week of October, the Harris campaign is spending the most in the critical trio of “Blue Wall” states – they’ve got more than $5 million booked in Pennsylvania, about $4 million booked in Michigan, plus about $2.7 million booked in Wisconsin. And that makes sense – if Harris wins all three of those states, plus Nebraska’s up-for-grabs electoral vote in the swingy second congressional district (where the campaign also has more than $300,000 in ad time this week), she’s the next president.”

Turning to Trump:

“…he’ s looking to the Sun Belt. This week, Trump’s campaign is spending the most on ads in Pennsylvania, $3.8 million – it’s really the linchpin to both sides’ strategies. But in addition to that, the campaign is also spending $3.4 million in North Carolina and nearly $3 million in Georgia, its other top targets, and if he wins those two states plus Pennsylvania, he’s heading back to the White House.”

The Electoral College will come down to which of the two campaigns potential voters consider more trustable, probably mostly on their personal economic situation and where that’s heading with each potential president. From the WaPo:

“Americans are finally starting to feel better about the economy, invigorating Vice President Kamala Harris’s pitch for the presidency as she narrows her Republican opponent’s longtime lead on an issue that is foremost on voters’ minds.”

More:

“Although voters still favor former president Trump over Harris on handling the economy, his advantage has dropped dramatically in recent weeks. Trump now averages a six-percentage-point edge on the economy…”

But Trump’s only answers for the economy are lower taxes on the rich and more tariffs. Yet, like everything else, Trump has no idea what tariffs actually do.

However, a new survey by Data For Progress’s top line finds Harris leading Trump by 3 points among likely voters nationwide. Nearly half of voters (49%), including a plurality of Independents (46%), choose Harris, while 46% choose Trump.

On the all-important economy, Harris has a trust advantage on most of the economic measures tested, including: supporting small businesses (+10 points), taxes on middle class Americans (+9), increasing wages (+5), lowering housing costs (+5), handling labor union policy (5%), improving our infrastructure (+3), lowering grocery costs (+2), creating jobs (+1), and protecting domestic manufacturing jobs (+1).

That says her campaign messaging is getting through.

Also the survey finds Trump with just a +1-point trust advantage over Harris on “reducing inflation,” an issue that voters have consistently ranked as their most important when deciding whom to vote for. Here’s their chart:

They also surveyed candidate favorability, which now tilts towards Harris. Harris’ rating is +2, while Trump’s is -12:

Is this poll on the money? Difficult to tell. A shorter election season makes it harder for campaigns to assess where to place their bets. And which of their cohorts in the electorate demand the most attention. We’ve focused on Gen Z and younger voters as being primarily swayed by economics. Messaging to women is another important element. Harris can run ads attacking Trump’s hyper-masculinity, (which will help with women).

From The Economist: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“And Harris needs to focus there. In the Obama years the gap between young men and women identifying as liberals was just five percentage points, during the Trump-Biden years this has tripled to 15 points, according to Gallup. This change has been caused almost entirely by young women moving to the left, rather than young men tacking to the right. The fact that this generation’s formative years were during the #MeToo movement, the Trump years and the decision to overturn Roe v Wade helps explain it.”

In 2020 a majority of white women voted for Trump. He will be in the minority in 2024. Leading among women is a real advantage. Since the 1980s a greater share of women than men has turned out to vote. In 2020 women made up 54% of the electorate. A final indicator that Democrats might be winning this battle of the sexes: in battleground states, according to Target Smart, a data firm, between July and September, twice as many young Democratic women registered to vote than young Republican men.

Trump’s bet is that Harris is the one with the turnout problem. They think their base is more committed to their candidate than is Harris’s. But Marcy Wheeler points to Harris’s investment in the Dem ground game:

“The Harris campaign claimed in late September to have 330 offices and more than 2,400 staff. They completed 25,000 weekend volunteer shifts on the final weekend of last month, contacting over 1 million voters over three days and completed the 100,000th event of the campaign.”

BTW: Ms. Oh So Right got a postcard from Harris to vote early this week.

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What Comes After Trump?

The Daily Escape:

“A leader without followers is simply a guy taking a walk.” – John Boehner

Trump will lose in November and he will lose in January when the Electoral College has its say. Wrongo hasn’t concluded this via his mad polling skills, but Trump has jumped the shark. He needs to exceed 46.5% of the national vote to get near an Electoral College win. But even his most dedicated followers now routinely are walking out of his rallies, so he can forget about 47%.

From Politico:

“Trump will never concede defeat, no matter how thorough his loss. Yet the more decisively Vice President Kamala Harris wins the popular vote and electoral college the less political oxygen he’ll have to reprise his 2020 antics; and, importantly, the faster Republicans can begin building a post-Trump party.”

He won’t go quietly, he may go violently, but he’s going. So the question becomes who or what replaces Trump as head of the MAGA movement? Let me make the answer clear: JD Vance comes next.

Why? He’s quick witted, articulate, greedy for power, and completely shameless. Hypocrisy won’t stick since he has endless bullshit to spin without blinking his eyeliner.  All this makes him incredibly appealing to MAGAts. Vance is far more dangerous than Trump because he is exactly what the Silicon Valley tech bro Nazis and the extreme white Christian nationalists want.

Wrongo and Ms. Right were persuaded by Liberal friends to read Vance’s 2016 memoir. The pitch was that Vance explained why White Trump voters from southeastern Ohio and West Virginia wouldn’t vote for Hillary, or lean progressive in their politics.

The book is simply Vance pushing propaganda that fits the policy preferences of leading Republican policy groups. Vance’s stereotypes were shark bait for conservative policymakers who feed the mythology that the undeserving poor make bad choices and are personally to blame for their own poverty. So why waste taxpayer money on programs to help lift people out of poverty? After all, Vance got out of hillbilly Ohio without them.

It is depressing that liberals didn’t notice that Vance places so much blame on welfare rather than, on say, neoliberalism economics and corporatism. Those are the ideologies that moved jobs offshore, that got their companies leveraged, and later bankrupted while the jobs were never to come back.

Vance’s buddies are among the people who precipitated the economic holocaust in Middle America. He’s worked for money men Peter Thiel, Ted Leonsis, and Steve Case. In 2016, the gods of greed and hate had given him a mission.

So the question among Republicans is how best to push Trump’s exit to Mar-a-Lagos 19th Hole. That will be unquestionably assisted by Trump’s legal woes. If Harris is president, all of the cases go forward, and several result in convictions, accelerating Trump’s exit from the stage.

And who’s the leader in the club house? Sadly, the GOP is a Party driven by its base voters. That means the demands of the base will, at least for the foreseeable future, drive the leadership of the Party. That means the person who is shameless enough to feed them racist lies, someone shameless enough to admit they’re lies on CNN on Sunday. Ladies and gentlemen I give you JD Vance!

From CNN:

“Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance on Sunday defended false claims about Haitian immigrants eating the pets of residents in Springfield, Ohio in an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union.”

To support his claims, Vance pointed to what he said are firsthand accounts from constituents who have told him this is happening, though he didn’t provide evidence:

“The American media totally ignored this stuff until Donald Trump and I started talking about cat memes. If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that’s what I’m going to do,”

CNN’s Dana Bash replied, “You just said that this is a story that you created.”

JD Vance clearly isn’t ready for prime time, but as the leader of the ever-dwindling MAGA spud of the 2024’s GOP, he’ll do. Try to remember that this is a guy who went to Yale. Who’s gotten by on his resume rather than much of his actual achievements.

In the pantheon of shitty GOP politicians reflect on this:

“Dems: I can’t imagine a worse politician than Richard Nixon.
Ronald Reagan: Hold my beer.
Dems: I can’t imagine a worse politician than Ronald Reagan.
Newt Gingrich: Hold my beer.
Dems: I can’t imagine a worse politician than Newt Gingrich.
George W Bush: Hold my beer.
Dems: I can’t imagine a worse politician than George W Bush.
Sarah Palin: Hold my beer.
Dems: I can’t imagine a worse politician than Sarah Palin.
Donald Trump: Hold my beer.
Dems: I can’t imagine a worse politician than Donald Trump.
JD Vance: Hold my beer.
Dems today: I can’t imagine a worse politician than JD Vance.”

Ask Vance: Whose suffering does your lie draw attention to? The two plausible answers are “our country’s poor refugee population”, or “American pet owners, somehow.”

What a shameless, stupid, dangerous shit pile of a human.

The true successor to the GOP leadership will turn out to be yet another scary Ivy scholar (Harvard) with service in the US military, Sen. Tom Cotton  (R-AK). Unlike Vance, Cotton is ready for political prime time.

For the next few years, we will watch these two scary Republicans duke it out to see if either is the flavor for the MAGA base. We will also watch to see whether the GOP can once again become a Party led by its senior leadership or simply by its rabble.

OK, that’s Wrongo’s opus for this week. Let’s leave you to ponder a piece of soothing music to start the week. Here is “Solveig’s Song” from Edvard Greig’s “Peer Gynt Suite Op 2 No 55” played by the by Slovak Philharmonic Orchestra:

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Now What?

The Daily Escape:

Sunset, Harpswell, ME – July 2024 photo by Jeffery Scott Smith Photography

Is it possible to appreciate just how bad July 2024 has been? Wrongo counts July as beginning on June 27, the date of the first presidential debate. Start with Trump v. US and then go on to Biden’s debate debacle, and now to Biden’s decision to end his campaign for another term.

Every day of this month has moved us beyond anything Wrongo ever imagined as possible, even though he’s become politically pretty jaded over the years. We’ve never seen people so tense; feeling so helpless. And no one really knows what’s next: We’re staring into uncertainty. Despite that, Wrongo’s relieved Biden is quitting the race. Good on him for admitting, despite every instinct that got him here in the first place, that it was time to go.

Let’s hope that on this Monday morning we’re ready to fight for the one thing that matters: Electing Kamala Harris in November.  Because despite what Republicans like to say, Biden was the best president of the last 50 years, and we can build on that legacy by getting Kamala Harris elected. Also, let’s flip the script and start talking about presidential candidates being old and demented, without the worry that we’re also describing our own selves. Don’t you wonder if the press will notice?

Biden’s done this the best way possible. He made it clear he’s capable of doing the job and intends to do it until January. He endorsed Harris, and immediately pivoted to the importance of beating Trump. And now the Democratic Party is lining up behind Harris.

And imagine how delicious it will be for Harris to preside over the Electoral College vote that elects her president!

Turning to the choice for VP? Wrongo has three suggestions. He wrote about picking PA governor Josh Shapiro a few weeks ago. PA is a crucial swing state that the Dems have to win to keep Trump out of the White House. A January Quinnipiac University poll showed Shapiro had a 59% job approval rating. Shapiro also is a good social media warrior and would be great on the campaign trail.

Sen. Mark Kelly of AZ would also be an interesting choice. He’s also from a swing state that has a Democratic governor to fill his seat until a special election. It’s important to remember that Kelly is a prodigious funds raiser, who was an astronaut. He is completely qualified to talk about gun violence and its impact on families.

Third, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan would also deliver a swing state to the Democratic column. She flipped control of the MI state legislature to the Dems in the 2022 midterm elections. When Whitmer ran for reelection in 2022, she won by nearly 11 points, reflective of her broad appeal in a state where the margins are rarely so big (Biden won MI by 2.8% in 2020). And think about how Trump would try to attack a team of two women. It wouldn’t be easy, given how Trump prefers to demonize and stereotype his opponents!

Time to wake up America! We’re in that crucial period between Trump’s first coup attempt and his second! But the political landscape just shifted under your feet. A team of young Democrats could change the conversation, adding stories about women, young people, people of color, and critically, how Americans have had to adjust in the face of change and disruption. Voters would rally to that story.

To help you wake up watch and listen to the Marsh Family perform a parody about JD Vance to the Abba tune “Dancing Queen”. They’re a family of six from Kent in the UK  who say:

“…here’s our less-than-impressed profile of yet another populist politician with highly flexible morality, worrying contempt for democratic process and discourse, but big funding and a big mouth who’s happy to tap into ordinary people’s fears while claiming to be an example of their dreams.”

Apparently Vance made an ill-advised splash by pretending concern about nuclear proliferation and half-jokingly describing the UK as an “Islamist country”:

The video is terrific!

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Beat Him With Ballots, Not Bullets

The Daily Escape:

Sunrise, Jordan pond trail, Acadia NP – July 2024 photo by Joe Lacroix

President Biden addressed the nation on Sunday. He said he’s ordering an independent review of the assassination attempt on Trump at his political rally in PA on Saturday night. And he denounced the attack as contrary to everything we stand for as a nation.

After the shooting Biden called Trump and asked him if he was okay. Biden also suspended his campaign temporarily, including posting on social media. Over two presidential campaigns, Trump has done nothing but insult Biden and make fun of him, but Biden called him and asked him if he was okay. That’s the definition of a leader.

If you follow the news closely, you’ve seen every major Democratic leader in the country resolutely condemning this political violence. Yet quite a few Republican members of Congress wasted no time in politicizing the attack on Trump by blaming Biden. Those Republicans, of course, will be given a pass, as always.

And the story will continue to dominate the news for several weeks: What was the shooter’s motive? His politics? (if any). There will rightly be serious questions about the Secret Service’s actions (and inaction). Many will strive to blame the inflammatory Trump rhetoric as a contributor to the attempted act.

Will it boost Trump’s chances? That’s difficult to say, but it has certainly inflamed his base. Teddy Roosevelt was shot and then lost. Gerald Ford was shot at twice and lost. Reagan’s approval rating quickly returned to where it was before Hinckley tried to kill him. History isn’t exactly a blueprint for electoral success.

OTOH, Trump’s now equal parts hero and victim to the Republican base. They will remember and repeat the line from his stump speech:

“In the end, they’re not coming after me. They’re coming after you — and I’m just standing in their way.”

The conjunction of Trump shot and bleeding, along with getting to his feet with blood running down his face, and raising his fist while yelling “fight, fight, fight” will make him an action hero for Republicans. It’s already the cover of Time magazine:

And as you should have expected, within 24 hours after the shooting, a messianic narrative was emerging around Trump. On Friday, it was impossible to imagine Trump as a sympathetic figure, but now? It’s become possible. Think about the MAGA narrative:

  • The Deep State Secret Service (run by Biden) didn’t protect our guy. The government failed them once again. It had to be planned!
  • Trump is instantly the manliest man among all men. Defiant, strong. He’s even more MAGA than EVER!
  • The Dems planned this because they couldn’t get him in the criminal or civil court system. So this is how they tried to rid us of him.
  • If the Dems attack Trump, they are attacking a man who was almost assassinated. How could you attack such a warm and loving man of God? (barf).

As to Biden’s candidacy? The assassination attempt will put any talk of replacing Biden aside for now. But if Trump makes inroads in the polls as a result of this, the talk of a replacement will begin again.

Wrongo has zero sympathy for Trump, not now, or before the shooting. You want 18 year-olds to have automatic weapons? You want to cheer on guys like Putin? You laugh at Paul Pelosi getting seriously injured? You want to minimize the plot against Gretchen Whitmer? You say Ashley Babbit was a martyr? You want to pardon all of the 1/6 criminals?

Trump is reaping what he has sown. We live in a very angry and dangerous gun climate created by Trump and the Republican Party. The reality is that Trump got a minor injury in an assassination attempt, and then proceeded to ham it up in response, demonstrating his sure feel for the cameras.

That doesn’t change the fact that Trump is STILL a repugnant con-man, criminal, pathological liar, serial sexual abuser who should be kept away from the White House.

Wake up America! Did the job get harder? Quite possibly. But the job is still to defeat Trump in November, but by VOTES, not bullets.

Sorry, there’s nothing to sing about on this Monday.

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The Democrat’s Dilemma

The Daily Escape:

Ledgewater, Cashiers, NC – July 2024 photo by Mark Krancer

Wrongo and Ms. Right have spent a great few days enjoying the company of kids and spouses. While the subject of the 2024 election was on everyone’s mind, it only occasionally broke through into whatever we were discussing at the time.

All the while, the chorus of media and pundits calling for Biden to step aside has continued. Back on June 30, Wrongo said this:

“The NYT has an editorial saying that Biden should stand down for the good of the country. Even though the idea has been rejected by Biden, that thought is alive and will play out over the next few weeks. And for better or for worse, it will largely gain or lose traction based on poll results…”

Over the July Fourth weekend, more Congress members and the Massachusetts governor called on Biden to cede the nomination. There also were reports that Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) was organizing a group of Democratic senators to urge Biden to step aside.

What comes next? Biden will stay, or decide to yield to the pressure and go. And Biden or not, the media is going to harp on the shortcomings of whoever it is, no matter what. Here’s the Democrat’s dilemma:

In some sense, we are like online voters on a TV reality show. So far, the response by the leaders of the Democratic Party has been pathetic. They’re cowering in their offices and texting us for more money. This is the state of play in July 2024: We’re presented with a yes/no option for the presidential candidate, and are told to: a) send money and b) vote hard in November. In truth we have only limited agency when it comes to deciding on Biden or another candidate as the Democratic nominee.

Starting today, pressure will continue to mount, since Congress returns and the pols will get confronted by reporters asking what their positions are on Biden.

Paradoxically, Biden has narrowed Trump’s lead in key swing states, according to a new survey by Bloomberg/Morning Consult, published on Saturday: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“…Trump led…Biden by only 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, in the critical states needed to win the November election. That’s the smallest gap since the poll began last October. Biden now leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. He’s within the poll’s statistical margin of error in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, and is farthest behind in…Pennsylvania.”

The poll also showed Biden narrowed the gap with independent voters, with Trump and Biden being tied at 40%. In a previous poll, Trump had led Biden by 44% to 36%. Here’s a visual from the survey:

This poll is the first comprehensive survey of the states most likely to decide the outcome in the Electoral College since Biden’s debate disaster on June 27. They surveyed 4,902 registered voters in seven swing states: 781 registered voters in Arizona, 790 in Georgia, 694 in Michigan, 452 in Nevada, 696 in North Carolina, 794 in Pennsylvania and 695 in Wisconsin. The surveys were conducted online from July 1 to July 5. The statistical margin of error is plus/minus 3 percentage points in Georgia and Pennsylvania; 4 percentage points in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and 5 percentage points in Nevada.

The poll showed that Trump also has hurdles to overcome: Some 62% of voters said he’s dangerous, an increase from 59% in February. That comes after the NY jury found him guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records.

And what happens if Biden steps aside?

The only viable replacement for Biden at this point is VP Kamala Harris. Wrongo’s informal surveys over the past year showed very little support for her, although there is zero reason to think that Democrats would vote against her in a two-way race vs. Trump.

And replacing Biden with Harris would remove the concerns about Biden’s age and mental sharpness. Maybe there would be new concerns, but we’d know for a fact that the age/capacity concerns held by many moderate/swing voters and many in the Democratic party would disappear.

Thinking about Harris:

Recent polls suggest Harris might do better than Biden against Trump, although it could still be a tight contest. A CNN poll released on July 2 found voters favor Trump over Biden by 49% to 43%. Harris also trailed Trump, 47% to 45%, but within the margin of error. It also found independents back Harris 43%-40% over Trump, and moderate voters of both parties prefer her 51%-39%.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll also taken after the debate found Harris and Trump were nearly tied, with 42% supporting her and 43% backing him. The Reuters/Ipsos polls typically have a margin of error of about 3.5 percentage points.

For Democrats, the answer to the dilemma is deciding about risk management. It’s clear that all polling suggests that Biden will face a very tough uphill battle to beat Trump in November. It’s unclear whether Harris would do better. So Dems are dealing with the devil you know vs the devil you don’t.

And many Dems are genuinely concerned that they can’t win with the devil they know, and so want to take a risk with the devil they don’t really know.

There are plenty of ways to think about this. Sports fans know that no one looks down on the great athlete who loses to Father Time. They only look down on an athlete who hangs on too long. Dems are no longer fighting just a story about Biden being “old”. It’s become about Biden losing control, and Americans don’t like that kind of story at all.

A Harris-lead ticket could change the conversation, adding stories about women, young people, people of color, and critically, how Americans have had to adjust in the face of change and disruption. Many voters could rally to that story. The Party faithful could build coalitions around it.

With the exception of Biden himself, Harris has served in elected office – as a district attorney, state attorney general, senator and vice-president – longer than any Democrat elected to the White House in Wrongo’s lifetime, except for LBJ. And as a former prosecutor, she can make the case against Trump, a convicted felon.

Finally, think about a Harris/Shapiro ticket: PA’s governor Josh Shapiro has consistently logged high approval ratings. This is the crucial swing state that the Democrats have to win to keep Trump out of the White House.  A January Quinnipiac University poll showed Shapiro had a 59% job approval rating, including 36% of Republicans who said they approved of his job performance, compared to Biden’s 40% overall approval rating in the state.

Time to wake up, America! We’re in that crucial period between Trump’s first coup attempt and his second. The Democrats’ dilemma must be solved ASAP. To help you wake up, watch and listen to Coldplay perform their big hit “Fix You” live on June 29, 2024 at Glastonbury 2024.

You will note Michael J. Fox joining the band onstage, playing guitar from a wheelchair. If you watch at 3:01, he does a kick that launches the crescendo in the song. European audiences are the best.

This video captures different people, different nationalities, different beliefs, collectively enjoying and engaging joyfully. No hate, no violence, just pure emotion.

Sample Lyrics:

When you try your best but you don’t succeed
When you get what you want but not what you need
When you feel so tired but you can’t sleep
Stuck in reverse

When the tears come streaming down your face
When you lose something you can’t replace
When you love someone but it goes to waste
Could it be worse?

Lights will guide you home
And ignite your bones
And I will try to fix you

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Why Is The NY Times So Intent On Replacing Biden?

The Daily Escape:

Cliffs near Kayenta, AZ – June 2024 photo by Karen Lund Larsen

What is it with the NYT? The Wrong family has subscribed to both the online and print versions for many decades. Wrongo remembers how badly the NYT treated Hillary Clinton about her emails in 2016. And their recent editorial board missive saying that Biden should retire for the good of the country made him again question precisely what they’re trying to accomplish in this election cycle.

To refresh your memories, Vox ran an analysis of the NYT’s reporting on Clinton about a year after the 2016 election that gave us Trump. Here’s the headline from that article:

“Study: Hillary Clinton’s emails got as much front-page coverage in 6 days as policy did in 69”

Vox helpfully provided a look at those six days:

The article authors Watts and Rothschild compiled data for all front-page and online articles published by The Times between September 1, 2016, and Election Day on November 8. Watts said of Clinton’s emails:

“It’s just a tremendous amount of…front-page real estate devoted to this scandal….The monolithic story that’s constantly renewing itself seems to be disproportionately damaging compared to this kaleidoscope.”

We all know what happened to the Clinton presidential campaign on November 8.

Fast forward to the NYT’s coverage of the Biden debate and its aftermath:

In some ways this is worse than with Hillary, because much of the NYT coverage was editorial hammering on Biden’s disastrous debate performance. You can probably expect the same thing going forward. Former Assistant AG for New York State and MSNBC commentator Tristan Snell nailed it:

Well, they didn’t say absolutely nothing, just close to it. Here’s the NYT’s front page on the day Trump was convicted:

Three stories. That’s it. NYT’s Editorial Board did publish an op-ed: Donald Trump, Felon in which the NYT made no call for Trump to step down as the GOP candidate. Here’s the final paragraph of that op-ed:

“In the end, the jury heard the evidence, deliberated for more than nine hours and came to a decision, which is how the system is designed to work. In the same way, elections allow voters to consider the choices before them with full information, then freely cast their ballots. Mr. Trump tried to sabotage elections and the criminal justice system — both of which are fundamental to American democracy — when he thought they might not produce the outcome he wanted. So far, they have proved resilient enough to withstand his attacks. The jurors have delivered their verdict, as the voters will in November. If the Republic is to survive, all of us — including Mr. Trump — should abide by both, regardless of the outcome.”

Contrast this with the Philadelphia Inquirer:

“To serve his country, Donald Trump should leave the race”
“Biden had a horrible night Thursday. But the debate about the debate is misplaced. The only person who should withdraw from the race is Trump.”

David Pecker, former owner of “The Enquirer” told us the plan. Plant the seed, a front page staring you in the face at every grocery store in America. The only thing that’s important is the cover.

Turns out that’s not much different than the NYT these days.

Wrongo isn’t some kind of mad skills media critic, and he continues to read the NYT. But when are we going to see the wall-to-wall editorials and Op-eds calling for the coup-leading, convicted felon, still-in-legal-trouble man with vivid dreams of political revenge and a fleeting grasp on reality being called to step aside? Are Republicans some sort of unaccountable, unstoppable force that few in the media can never criticize?

Wouldn’t it be fantastic if the next time a reporter brings up getting out of the race with Biden himself, Biden responded with:

“Either go write an Op-Ed making the case for my Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment, or shut the f—k up about it.”

Biden’s performance hurts his chances, no question. But dropping out now would assure defeat for the Democrats. There’s no Johnny Unbeatable in sight. Quitting the race now would fracture the Democratic Party. It would also reinforce the GOP lie that Biden and the administration accomplished nothing and was never legitimate.

Ironically, the late, unlamented Donald Rumsfeld can be misquoted to say:

“You fight an election with the candidate you’ve got, not a candidate you wish you had”.

It’s time to wake up America, we have to do more, and worry less. Stop reading the papers (specifically the NYT), and help elect Democratic Senators and Congresspersons. Let’s help them run strongly in all districts in November. Maybe they can help push Biden across the finish line.

To help you wake up, listen to The Yardbirds tune “Please Don’t Tell Me ‘Bout The News” from their 2003 album “Birdland”.  The Yardbirds were an English rock band, formed in 1963. The band started the careers of three of rock’s most famous guitarists: Eric Clapton, Jeff Beck and Jimmy Page:

Sample Lyrics:

You can read it in the morning
You can read it late at night
Well there’s been another warning
Or there’s been another fight

There’s a scandal going on
Some reporter stumbled on
About a leak in the press
And the world is in a mess

Won’t you spare me from this story
‘Cause I only get confused
Please don’t tell me about the news
Please don’t tell me about the news

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Trump’s Running Mate

The Daily Escape:

Columbia River Gorge with Crown Point center right, WA – June 2024 photo by David Leahy Photography

Should we care who Trump selects as his running mate? NBC News now indicates the short list has been reduced to North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Ohio Senator JD Vance, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio. And Trump says he’s made the decision on who will be his next VP.

That seems to mean that New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott haven’t made the cut.

Sen. Rubio has made the cut, but faces a Constitutional issue, as it’s Constitutionally impermissible for Trump and Rubio to form a ticket if they are both residents of the same state (in their case, Florida). NBC News says that the campaign recognizes the hurdle this presents, but is of two minds about it. On the one hand, it quotes a Florida Republican operative saying:

“…if the residency thing was not an issue, I’m fairly certain Marco would be the guy.”

On the other hand, a source who has spoken with Trump about the running mate search is quoted as saying:

“…the residency factor is an issue that is easy to fix as long as Rubio relocates.”

This raises an interesting question about the residency requirements for a US Senator. It turns out that they must be a resident of the state they seek to represent at the time of the election, but not necessarily thereafter. So Rubio could move away from Florida without having to surrender his Senate seat. But he would have to re-establish Florida residency to seek a new term as Senator.

If he were the selected VP, whatever effort he made to establish residency in a new state between now and November would certainly be challenged in court. But who knows if the Supreme Court would: a) hear the case; or b) decide in Rubio’s favor?

One reason Wrongo hasn’t given much thought to who Trump will choose is that it’s unlikely to make that much of a difference. The contest isn’t between VP Kamala Harris and one of these three Trump boys. It’s going to be a yes or no vote on Trump.

Usually the VP selection helps the presidential candidate in his/her home state. In the case of Rubio and Vance, they’d potentially help, but Trump is already heavily favored to win in both Florida and Ohio. And if he needs a boost from Bergum to win in North Dakota, he’s done before the race begins.

Rubio might provide Trump a boost with certain Latinos. The base will love Vance and they’ll tolerate Burgum. So the choice probably comes down to who is more likely to break laws if Trump asks them to.

None of these candidates should strike fear in the heart of the Biden campaign. Vance would be the worst simply because choosing him doubles down on white nationalism. Rubio has dealt in a serious way with the agencies of the executive branch for long enough that he could serve as a fill-in president without falling on his face. Maybe the same is true of Burgum, who has relevant executive experience from running North Dakota.

Time to wake up America! The presidential election is ramping up, just when you would prefer to go on vacation! Sadly, Biden needs whatever you can do to help turn out voters, and to help in swing states in particular.

To help you wake up, watch and listen to Willow Smith and her group perform “Symptom of Life” for NPR’s Tiny Desk Concert. She’s the daughter of Will Smith, but she’s got enough talent that you’re going to forget about her family tree.

And yes, you’re counting meters in seven here. The tune alternates between a 7/4 verse and a 4/4 chorus, while sounding fresh and natural:

The concert is nearly 20 minutes long. Wrongo picked the first tune, but you can listen to all of them or a few if they tickle you fancy. Pop music could sound a bit like jazz in a few years.

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Is Biden Doing As Badly As The Media Says?

The Daily Escape:

Wisteria, Seattle Japanese Garden – May 2024 photo by Lisa Ketchum

(New columns may be light and variable for the rest of the week as Wrongo and Ms. Right visit family in New England)

Wrongo and Ms. Right spent Sunday celebrating the college graduation of a granddaughter-in-law. That led to some discussion about the current wave of campus demonstrations and how college students seem so lukewarm about Biden.

Wrongo asked if anyone was aware that Biden had delivered the commencement address at Morehouse College in Atlanta, GA earlier that day. Morehouse is one of the HBCU’s (Historically Black Colleges and Universities). None of them knew he was even speaking at a graduation. And given the uproar on campuses across the nation and what we’re hearing about how Black people are moving away from Biden, their thought was that it wasn’t going to be a good day for Biden.

Turned out that Biden had a pretty good day at Morehouse. From Simon Rosenberg:

“Yesterday, President Biden gave what I think is one of the most important speeches of his Presidency.”

As with the presidential debates, in this election year, every Biden speech is pitched by the media as a “make or break” event for Biden as The Atlanta Journal Constitution reports “Biden delivers high-stakes commencement address at Morehouse College”.  But as Xitter commenter Scary Lawyer Guy says:

“Of the many double standards employed by the media, Biden needing every speech to be some combination of Lincoln and Cicero while Trump’s public appearances are 90 minutes of word salad, non sequiturs, and dictatorial musings that get no push back, is among the worst.”

Wrongo is still looking for an explanation why every news event is somewhere between a “test” for Biden or a “danger” to his candidacy. You can watch Biden’s entire Morehouse speech here. It was a good speech and an important moment in Biden’s campaign for reelection.

There is some truth to recent polling that shows Biden in difficulty with college students. Pew has a poll showing that younger Americans think Biden favors the Israelis too much (36%), while just 12% of young adults say he’s striking the right balance in the Israel-Hamas war:

These kinds of polls are why the media are concerned about Biden’s popularity, but 41% of those same students say that they’re “not sure” how Biden is doing. That’s five points more than the number who believe he’s doing the wrong thing. And for “all adults”, the favoring the Israelis too much is only at 22%, with the “Not Sure” holding at 40%, eighteen points more than those who dislike what Biden is doing.

Time to wake up, America! As Daniel Miller said after Biden’s speech:

“The media must do better. We all must do better. We cannot allow these lies that have poisoned the minds of the American public to continue unchallenged. We must challenge these lies and we must get the American people to see the truth.”

To help you wake up on a Tuesday morning, watch and listen to “Long Distance Call” from the new album “Sam’s Place”, the first Little Feat album in 12 years. The album title is for Sam Clayton, a Little Feat original who wanted to have Little Feat do an album of blues covers. “Long Distance Call ” was written by blues legend, Muddy Waters, and it has Clayton and Bonnie Raitt on vocals. It was recorded in Memphis TN at the old Sam Philips Studios and Sam and others in the band played on the same old piano that Jerry Lee Lewis played, decades ago:

Sample Lyric:

“I might buy you a brand new Cadillac, baby
If you only speak some good words about me…”

What’s the possibility that the media will find some good words to say about Biden?

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