Playlist – Page 2 – The Wrongologist

The Democrat’s Dilemma

The Daily Escape:

Ledgewater, Cashiers, NC – July 2024 photo by Mark Krancer

Wrongo and Ms. Right have spent a great few days enjoying the company of kids and spouses. While the subject of the 2024 election was on everyone’s mind, it only occasionally broke through into whatever we were discussing at the time.

All the while, the chorus of media and pundits calling for Biden to step aside has continued. Back on June 30, Wrongo said this:

“The NYT has an editorial saying that Biden should stand down for the good of the country. Even though the idea has been rejected by Biden, that thought is alive and will play out over the next few weeks. And for better or for worse, it will largely gain or lose traction based on poll results…”

Over the July Fourth weekend, more Congress members and the Massachusetts governor called on Biden to cede the nomination. There also were reports that Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) was organizing a group of Democratic senators to urge Biden to step aside.

What comes next? Biden will stay, or decide to yield to the pressure and go. And Biden or not, the media is going to harp on the shortcomings of whoever it is, no matter what. Here’s the Democrat’s dilemma:

In some sense, we are like online voters on a TV reality show. So far, the response by the leaders of the Democratic Party has been pathetic. They’re cowering in their offices and texting us for more money. This is the state of play in July 2024: We’re presented with a yes/no option for the presidential candidate, and are told to: a) send money and b) vote hard in November. In truth we have only limited agency when it comes to deciding on Biden or another candidate as the Democratic nominee.

Starting today, pressure will continue to mount, since Congress returns and the pols will get confronted by reporters asking what their positions are on Biden.

Paradoxically, Biden has narrowed Trump’s lead in key swing states, according to a new survey by Bloomberg/Morning Consult, published on Saturday: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“…Trump led…Biden by only 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, in the critical states needed to win the November election. That’s the smallest gap since the poll began last October. Biden now leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. He’s within the poll’s statistical margin of error in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, and is farthest behind in…Pennsylvania.”

The poll also showed Biden narrowed the gap with independent voters, with Trump and Biden being tied at 40%. In a previous poll, Trump had led Biden by 44% to 36%. Here’s a visual from the survey:

This poll is the first comprehensive survey of the states most likely to decide the outcome in the Electoral College since Biden’s debate disaster on June 27. They surveyed 4,902 registered voters in seven swing states: 781 registered voters in Arizona, 790 in Georgia, 694 in Michigan, 452 in Nevada, 696 in North Carolina, 794 in Pennsylvania and 695 in Wisconsin. The surveys were conducted online from July 1 to July 5. The statistical margin of error is plus/minus 3 percentage points in Georgia and Pennsylvania; 4 percentage points in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and 5 percentage points in Nevada.

The poll showed that Trump also has hurdles to overcome: Some 62% of voters said he’s dangerous, an increase from 59% in February. That comes after the NY jury found him guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records.

And what happens if Biden steps aside?

The only viable replacement for Biden at this point is VP Kamala Harris. Wrongo’s informal surveys over the past year showed very little support for her, although there is zero reason to think that Democrats would vote against her in a two-way race vs. Trump.

And replacing Biden with Harris would remove the concerns about Biden’s age and mental sharpness. Maybe there would be new concerns, but we’d know for a fact that the age/capacity concerns held by many moderate/swing voters and many in the Democratic party would disappear.

Thinking about Harris:

Recent polls suggest Harris might do better than Biden against Trump, although it could still be a tight contest. A CNN poll released on July 2 found voters favor Trump over Biden by 49% to 43%. Harris also trailed Trump, 47% to 45%, but within the margin of error. It also found independents back Harris 43%-40% over Trump, and moderate voters of both parties prefer her 51%-39%.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll also taken after the debate found Harris and Trump were nearly tied, with 42% supporting her and 43% backing him. The Reuters/Ipsos polls typically have a margin of error of about 3.5 percentage points.

For Democrats, the answer to the dilemma is deciding about risk management. It’s clear that all polling suggests that Biden will face a very tough uphill battle to beat Trump in November. It’s unclear whether Harris would do better. So Dems are dealing with the devil you know vs the devil you don’t.

And many Dems are genuinely concerned that they can’t win with the devil they know, and so want to take a risk with the devil they don’t really know.

There are plenty of ways to think about this. Sports fans know that no one looks down on the great athlete who loses to Father Time. They only look down on an athlete who hangs on too long. Dems are no longer fighting just a story about Biden being “old”. It’s become about Biden losing control, and Americans don’t like that kind of story at all.

A Harris-lead ticket could change the conversation, adding stories about women, young people, people of color, and critically, how Americans have had to adjust in the face of change and disruption. Many voters could rally to that story. The Party faithful could build coalitions around it.

With the exception of Biden himself, Harris has served in elected office – as a district attorney, state attorney general, senator and vice-president – longer than any Democrat elected to the White House in Wrongo’s lifetime, except for LBJ. And as a former prosecutor, she can make the case against Trump, a convicted felon.

Finally, think about a Harris/Shapiro ticket: PA’s governor Josh Shapiro has consistently logged high approval ratings. This is the crucial swing state that the Democrats have to win to keep Trump out of the White House. A January Quinnipiac University poll showed Shapiro had a 59% job approval rating, including 36% of Republicans who said they approved of his job performance, compared to Biden’s 40% overall approval rating in the state.

Time to wake up, America! We’re in that crucial period between Trump’s first coup attempt and his second. The Democrats’ dilemma must be solved ASAP. To help you wake up, watch and listen to Coldplay perform their big hit “Fix You” live on June 29, 2024 at Glastonbury 2024.

You will note Michael J. Fox joining the band onstage, playing guitar from a wheelchair. If you watch at 3:01, he does a kick that launches the crescendo in the song. European audiences are the best.

This video captures different people, different nationalities, different beliefs, collectively enjoying and engaging joyfully. No hate, no violence, just pure emotion.

Sample Lyrics:

When you try your best but you don’t succeed
When you get what you want but not what you need
When you feel so tired but you can’t sleep
Stuck in reverse

When the tears come streaming down your face
When you lose something you can’t replace
When you love someone but it goes to waste
Could it be worse?

Lights will guide you home
And ignite your bones
And I will try to fix you

Why Is The NY Times So Intent On Replacing Biden?

The Daily Escape:

Cliffs near Kayenta, AZ – June 2024 photo by Karen Lund Larsen

What is it with the NYT? The Wrong family has subscribed to both the online and print versions for many decades. Wrongo remembers how badly the NYT treated Hillary Clinton about her emails in 2016. And their recent editorial board missive saying that Biden should retire for the good of the country made him again question precisely what they’re trying to accomplish in this election cycle.

To refresh your memories, Vox ran an analysis of the NYT’s reporting on Clinton about a year after the 2016 election that gave us Trump. Here’s the headline from that article:

“Study: Hillary Clinton’s emails got as much front-page coverage in 6 days as policy did in 69”

Vox helpfully provided a look at those six days:

The article authors Watts and Rothschild compiled data for all front-page and online articles published by The Times between September 1, 2016, and Election Day on November 8. Watts said of Clinton’s emails:

“It’s just a tremendous amount of…front-page real estate devoted to this scandal….The monolithic story that’s constantly renewing itself seems to be disproportionately damaging compared to this kaleidoscope.”

We all know what happened to the Clinton presidential campaign on November 8.

Fast forward to the NYT’s coverage of the Biden debate and its aftermath:

In some ways this is worse than with Hillary, because much of the NYT coverage was editorial hammering on Biden’s disastrous debate performance. You can probably expect the same thing going forward. Former Assistant AG for New York State and MSNBC commentator Tristan Snell nailed it:

Well, they didn’t say absolutely nothing, just close to it. Here’s the NYT’s front page on the day Trump was convicted:

Three stories. That’s it. NYT’s Editorial Board did publish an op-ed: Donald Trump, Felon in which the NYT made no call for Trump to step down as the GOP candidate. Here’s the final paragraph of that op-ed:

“In the end, the jury heard the evidence, deliberated for more than nine hours and came to a decision, which is how the system is designed to work. In the same way, elections allow voters to consider the choices before them with full information, then freely cast their ballots. Mr. Trump tried to sabotage elections and the criminal justice system — both of which are fundamental to American democracy — when he thought they might not produce the outcome he wanted. So far, they have proved resilient enough to withstand his attacks. The jurors have delivered their verdict, as the voters will in November. If the Republic is to survive, all of us — including Mr. Trump — should abide by both, regardless of the outcome.”

Contrast this with the Philadelphia Inquirer:

“To serve his country, Donald Trump should leave the race”
“Biden had a horrible night Thursday. But the debate about the debate is misplaced. The only person who should withdraw from the race is Trump.”

David Pecker, former owner of “The Enquirer” told us the plan. Plant the seed, a front page staring you in the face at every grocery store in America. The only thing that’s important is the cover.

Turns out that’s not much different than the NYT these days.

Wrongo isn’t some kind of mad skills media critic, and he continues to read the NYT. But when are we going to see the wall-to-wall editorials and Op-eds calling for the coup-leading, convicted felon, still-in-legal-trouble man with vivid dreams of political revenge and a fleeting grasp on reality being called to step aside? Are Republicans some sort of unaccountable, unstoppable force that few in the media can never criticize?

Wouldn’t it be fantastic if the next time a reporter brings up getting out of the race with Biden himself, Biden responded with:

“Either go write an Op-Ed making the case for my Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment, or shut the f—k up about it.”

Biden’s performance hurts his chances, no question. But dropping out now would assure defeat for the Democrats. There’s no Johnny Unbeatable in sight. Quitting the race now would fracture the Democratic Party. It would also reinforce the GOP lie that Biden and the administration accomplished nothing and was never legitimate.

Ironically, the late, unlamented Donald Rumsfeld can be misquoted to say:

“You fight an election with the candidate you’ve got, not a candidate you wish you had”.

It’s time to wake up America, we have to do more, and worry less. Stop reading the papers (specifically the NYT), and help elect Democratic Senators and Congresspersons. Let’s help them run strongly in all districts in November. Maybe they can help push Biden across the finish line.

To help you wake up, listen to The Yardbirds tune “Please Don’t Tell Me ‘Bout The News” from their 2003 album “Birdland”. The Yardbirds were an English rock band, formed in 1963. The band started the careers of three of rock’s most famous guitarists: Eric Clapton, Jeff Beck and Jimmy Page:

Sample Lyrics:

You can read it in the morning
You can read it late at night
Well there’s been another warning
Or there’s been another fight

There’s a scandal going on
Some reporter stumbled on
About a leak in the press
And the world is in a mess

Won’t you spare me from this story
‘Cause I only get confused
Please don’t tell me about the news
Please don’t tell me about the news

About That Debate

The Daily Escape:

Rainstorm, Blue Ridge Mountains, Blue Ridge Parkway, NC – June 2024 photo by David R. Robinson

It’s a new day and we’re trying to pick up the pieces after what happened in last night’s debate between Trump and Biden. Here’s a recap by Rick Wilson, Lincoln Project co-founder:

“It’s late June, and Joe Biden went on stage with a felon who tore down America, told 500 sundry lies, bragged about ending Roe v. Wade, defended January 6th, denied having sex with a porn star, and promised to betray Ukraine. And Joe Biden had a bad, bad night.”

Biden stumbled over his words, and Trump’s barrage of lies went unchecked. On Twitter and on cable news, the political pundit class had a collective freakout. From political journalist John Nichols:

“CNN is illustrating how a ‘debate’ when the moderators reject the basic responsibility of fact-checking in real time, and refuse to challenge blatantly false statements, is not a debate. It’s…chaos where lies are given equal footing with the truth.”

When Wrongo heard that CNN wouldn’t be doing any real time fact-checking on Thursday afternoon, it was clear how the debate would go. Only now, the Democrats and Biden can’t tell people they didn’t see what they saw.

A lot of media people are SHOCKED at Biden’s performance. Dem consultants see that there is blood in the water and the sharks are circling. So many senior Dems are saying that Biden should step aside. The options are pretty simple:

Convince Biden to drop out of the race.
Stick with Biden and hope his debate performance doesn’t turn many voters away.

There are LOTS of Dems who want option #1. But it will be impossible to get Biden to drop out if he doesn’t want to do it. And there are NO signs that he wants to it.

Any plan to ease Biden out would likely require the involvement of Jill Biden and Barack Obama, along with assembling a pre-fab, pre-convention ticket acceptable to the Party’s delegates.

Otherwise, it would be a free-for-all. Even with Biden and Obama’s backing, that’s a huge undertaking with a 10 out of 10 degree of difficulty. It also entails massive risk with the convention delegates, the public, along with the challenges of spinning up a presidential campaign from a standing start. No Democrat on the sidelines today has the national organization in place to make a credible presidential run. They would have to take over the Biden campaign’s assets and move on from there.

Get a grip: One candidate on the stage lied from start to finish. And no one is suggesting that he drop out.

The media has been on the verge of burying Biden because of his age for months. That was never more true than on CNN on Thursday night, where their coifed pundit-moderators ignored the elephants in the room – that one of the two men standing at the podiums was a convicted felon, the leader of a coup attempt, an alleged thief of national security documents, who was earlier this year found liable in a civil court for rape, and has promised to usher in a vengeful authoritarian regime if he returns to office.

Instead, they launched the debate with their usual dead horse: the deficit and taxes. More from Wilson:

“History is replete with bad debate performances: Clinton’s first outing in 1992, George W. Bush’s Boston groaner (I was there, and it was awful), and Obama’s first showing against John McCain. Debates matter until they don’t, but they matter most to the chattering and online classes.”

All of those debaters won the presidency.

Biden is still overwhelmingly likely to run for reelection; he’s still is in a position to be re-elected. Biden, even diminished, is more right than wrong, that at this point he represents the Party’s best chance to keep Trump out of the Oval Office.

Biden did the best he could with an opponent who is unconstrained by the truth and moderators perfectly willing to allow Trump to lie. Unfortunately while Biden started weak, he finished stronger, while Trump started strong, he finished weak.

But Wrongo assumes that many people stopped watching after the first break.

So while some Democrats are in a panic about Joe Biden’s debate performance, we need to get a clue and check in with reality. It was probable that Biden was unwell and fatigued. Imagine how well you’d perform under the same conditions, regardless of your age.

Swallow your panic and get to work, doing whatever you can. Because for many Americans, this is personal. Your guy had a bad night. But the sun is out today. Move forward. Stop being afraid of your own shadow. We’re running against an insurrectionist and a felon. Biden is old. Stop being afraid of it.

We’re having our Saturday Soother on Friday this week, for the obvious reason that it’s necessary. On the Fields of Wrong, a very large tree fell across the long driveway of two of our neighbors. It says a lot that five or so of the men in the neighborhood worked together over two days to reopen the road. It did require borrowed and rented capital equipment: a scoop loader, a tractor and a wood chipper.

It’s going to be a cooler and drier Friday and Saturday in Connecticut. So let’s grab a seat in the shade and do our best not to think about the Supreme Court’s continuing efforts to end democracy as we used to know it. Try instead to take a few moments to gather ourselves for the slings and arrows of the week to come.

Start by listening to “Uncle John’s Band” by the Grateful Dead. It started appearing in their concerts in1969. The band recorded it for their 1970 album “Workingman’s Dead”. It was written by guitarist Jerry Garcia and lyricist Robert Hunter. The tune was played more than 330 times by the Dead and the lyrics seem to Wrongo to be valuable today:

Sample Lyrics:

Well, the first days are the hardest days
Don’t you worry anymore
‘Cause when life looks like Easy Street
There is danger at your door
Think this through with me
Let me know your mind
Woah, oh, what I want to know
Is are you kind?

Goddamn, well, I declare
Have you seen the like?
Their walls are built of cannonballs
Their motto is “don’t tread on me”

Come hear Uncle John’s band
Playing to the tide
Come with me, or go alone
He’s come to take his children home

Trump’s Running Mate

The Daily Escape:

Columbia River Gorge with Crown Point center right, WA – June 2024 photo by David Leahy Photography

Should we care who Trump selects as his running mate? NBC News now indicates the short list has been reduced to North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Ohio Senator JD Vance, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio. And Trump says he’s made the decision on who will be his next VP.

That seems to mean that New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott haven’t made the cut.

Sen. Rubio has made the cut, but faces a Constitutional issue, as it’s Constitutionally impermissible for Trump and Rubio to form a ticket if they are both residents of the same state (in their case, Florida). NBC News says that the campaign recognizes the hurdle this presents, but is of two minds about it. On the one hand, it quotes a Florida Republican operative saying:

“…if the residency thing was not an issue, I’m fairly certain Marco would be the guy.”

On the other hand, a source who has spoken with Trump about the running mate search is quoted as saying:

“…the residency factor is an issue that is easy to fix as long as Rubio relocates.”

This raises an interesting question about the residency requirements for a US Senator. It turns out that they must be a resident of the state they seek to represent at the time of the election, but not necessarily thereafter. So Rubio could move away from Florida without having to surrender his Senate seat. But he would have to re-establish Florida residency to seek a new term as Senator.

If he were the selected VP, whatever effort he made to establish residency in a new state between now and November would certainly be challenged in court. But who knows if the Supreme Court would: a) hear the case; or b) decide in Rubio’s favor?

One reason Wrongo hasn’t given much thought to who Trump will choose is that it’s unlikely to make that much of a difference. The contest isn’t between VP Kamala Harris and one of these three Trump boys. It’s going to be a yes or no vote on Trump.

Usually the VP selection helps the presidential candidate in his/her home state. In the case of Rubio and Vance, they’d potentially help, but Trump is already heavily favored to win in both Florida and Ohio. And if he needs a boost from Bergum to win in North Dakota, he’s done before the race begins.

Rubio might provide Trump a boost with certain Latinos. The base will love Vance and they’ll tolerate Burgum. So the choice probably comes down to who is more likely to break laws if Trump asks them to.

None of these candidates should strike fear in the heart of the Biden campaign. Vance would be the worst simply because choosing him doubles down on white nationalism. Rubio has dealt in a serious way with the agencies of the executive branch for long enough that he could serve as a fill-in president without falling on his face. Maybe the same is true of Burgum, who has relevant executive experience from running North Dakota.

Time to wake up America! The presidential election is ramping up, just when you would prefer to go on vacation! Sadly, Biden needs whatever you can do to help turn out voters, and to help in swing states in particular.

To help you wake up, watch and listen to Willow Smith and her group perform “Symptom of Life” for NPR’s Tiny Desk Concert. She’s the daughter of Will Smith, but she’s got enough talent that you’re going to forget about her family tree.

And yes, you’re counting meters in seven here. The tune alternates between a 7/4 verse and a 4/4 chorus, while sounding fresh and natural:

The concert is nearly 20 minutes long. Wrongo picked the first tune, but you can listen to all of them or a few if they tickle you fancy. Pop music could sound a bit like jazz in a few years.

Scattered Thoughts On Saturday

The Daily Escape:

Lupine, Crested Butte, CO – June 2024 photo by Lucian Manthey Photography

We just experienced Wrongo’s least favorite day of the year, the summer solstice. Now, the days grow shorter until December, and Wrongo will soon begin to mourn the loss of daylight. Adding to that, there’s the first presidential debate next Thursday, in which each candidate will try to make the election about which of the two of them is worse for the country.

We’re now entering the reality phase of the campaign. Over the next 10 weeks we will have 2 debates, the Trump sentencing, and the two presidential nominating conventions. Voters are beginning to check in now on how things are going. Wrongo expects that these unusually early presidential debates will draw large audiences that include a substantial swath of Americans who haven’t yet thought much about who to vote for in the upcoming election.

This is a group who can be significantly influenced by Biden’s performance.

Another thing for voters to note is that one donor, Timothy Mellon, heir to Andrew Mellon’s banking fortune, gave $50 million to the Trump campaign the day after Trump was found guilty of fraud in NY. Mellon had previously donated $25 million to super PACs for both RFK Jr. and Trump! That should prove to you that RFK Jr. is simply a stalking horse for the Trump campaign.

And think about what we had heard in the days after Trump was convicted: The media reported that Trump raised $52.8 million in the 24 hours after his guilty verdicts. But we now know that $50 million came from a single donor, meaning that Trump raised only $2.8 million from others in those early hours after the verdicts.

It’s hard to imagine that RFK Jr.’s candidacy would have be viable except for Mellon’s $25 million donation. In a sense, a single donor is keeping RFK Jr.’s campaign afloat. If anyone believed that RFK Jr. was a legitimate candidate, it is difficult to continue thinking that now after the revelation of Mellon’s funding.

Turning to the Supreme Court’s parsimonious trickle of decisions, on Friday, they upheld a gun control law intended to protect domestic violence victims. From Mark Sherman of the AP:

“The Supreme Court on Friday upheld a federal gun control law that is intended to protect victims of domestic violence…Justice Clarence Thomas, the author of the 2022 ruling, dissented….”

Can You Sell Just Five Percent Of Your Soul To Satan?

The Daily Escape:

Sunrise, Duck, NC – June 2024 photo by Nate Waddell

This should be a trivial story, except it isn’t. The WaPo reported this week that two former law enforcement officers who defended the US Capitol from rioters on Jan. 6 were jeered on Wednesday by state GOP lawmakers during a visit to the Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives:

“Former US Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn and former sergeant Aquilino Gonell were introduced on the floor Wednesday as “heroes” by House Speaker Joanna McClinton (D) for having “bravely defended democracy in the United States Capitol against rioters and insurrection on January 6. As the two men — both of whom were injured by rioters on Jan. 6 — were introduced, the House floor descended into chaos. According to Democratic lawmakers, several GOP lawmakers hissed and booed, with a number of Republicans walking out of the chamber in protest.”

In this specific instance of MAGA misbehavior, two things are significant. First, the Pennsylvania House has 203 members split between 102 Democrats and 101 Republicans. This is very similar to the polarizing political split in the US House. Second, MAGAs acting out underscores just how polarizing the Jan. 6 insurrection has become with Republicans.

Once again, we’re seeing that MAGA Republican politicians support very few of the historical guardrails of our politics. Wrongo used to think that most Republicans were sincere in their beliefs in a certain moral standard; in fiscal responsibility, in honoring those who served in the military, and respecting police officers and other authority. But over time, every one of those supposed standards has been trampled, and while Trump has been the single biggest perpetrator, all of today’s the loudmouth grifters on the Right also share in this ignominy. It’s doubtful that any argument they make is in good faith.

The irony is that the MAGA Republicans readily abandoned their long-standing heritage of freedom, of democratic rule, of the fundamentals of law dating from the Magna Carta, and of British common law. They’ve replaced it all with the Ethos of Trump. Their patriotism, like Trump’s business prowess, is a sham. Its disposable if political advantage is on the line. See Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-AL) opinions on Ukraine if you doubt this.

And commitment to the principle of equal justice under law? That has been replaced with the saying: “For my friends, everything, for my enemies, the law.”

It’s nothing short of amazing how otherwise principled Republican politicians have flocked to Trump’s side. Their moves started slowly, but picked up steam during his presidency. Now they’re fully espousing whatever Trump says. And since his conviction in NY for fraud, it seems revenge is what’s driving them. Their willingness to shrug off a jury’s ruling and characterize it as illegitimate isn’t a new demonstration of their disregard for the rule of law. We’ve already seen this disregard in two impeachment trials, and in their disavowing any importance to the Jan. 6 attempted insurrection.

The MAGA movement has become a full-blown fascist enterprise before our eyes. The response we’re seeing to Trump’s conviction is bringing it more out in the open. Despite all of Trump’s bankruptcies, his greatest achievement in bankruptcy is in his completing the moral bankruptcy of the Republican Party. But Republicans still hope to re-elect their convicted leader to the White House. Now a felon, Trump cannot possess a gun, but they want to hand him the US military and nuclear arsenal.

Republicans ought to know that there’s no such thing as selling five percent of your soul to Satan. More likely, the Devil is in a Rent-to-Own relationship with the GOP.

Some decent news for your Saturday. Post the Trump verdict, the NYT resurveyed the participants in its last poll of 2,000 people. They found a perceptible shift toward Biden. It was only a couple of points but what’s meaningful about it is who shifted. Nate Cohn wrote:

“Perhaps not surprisingly, the swings were relatively pronounced among young, nonwhite, less engaged and low-turnout voters. In fact, 20% of Mr. Trump’s previous supporters who are Black now say they back Mr. Biden.”

Overall, Mr. Trump retained 93% of voters who told the NYT that they backed him in a previous survey. But in a close election, losing 7% of your supporters could be decisive. More:

“A potentially crucial sliver of Mr. Trump’s former supporters — 3% — now told us they’ll back Mr. Biden, while another 4% say they’re now undecided.”

Also, Trump only leads Biden by 4 points in Florida in the latest poll of the state by Fox News:

Biden is just outside the margin of error, but both of them have slipped slightly since the 2020 election. It should give some faint hope to Democrats, since Florida also has a November ballot initiative that would restore abortion rights. If the Florida initiative passes, abortion will be legalized up to 24 weeks. If it gets anywhere near the 60% required to become law, Biden has a chance in Florida. Trump doesn’t have a path to 270 electoral votes without Florida!

All we have to do is vote.

As usual, we’re heading into the weekend with mostly bad and a smattering of good news. It’s now time for our Saturday Soother, where we unplug from the social media that’s trying to murder our brains, and instead, spend a few moments of relaxation. Here on the Fields of Wrong, we’re attempting to turn a ½ acre patch of our lawn into a meadow that will attract pollinators. So far, the grass is very tall, and there are occasional flowers in bloom. Wrongo planted a few more this week, disturbing the bluebirds in one of our nest boxes in the process.

It’s going to be sunny and warm in the Northeast, so grab a seat under a tree. Now, watch and listen to the late, great Jeff Beck perform “Nessun Dorma”, on the Fender guitar. It’s the wildly popular aria from Puccini’s opera “Turandot” played here at the Crossroads Blues festival in February 2010. Beck also performed “Nessun Dorma” on many other stages. Beck died in January 2023. At the time, a fellow musician said…”If you haven’t heard this version of Nessun Dorma you need to because it can move you to tears.” Strongly recommended:

Will The Guilty Verdict Matter?

The Daily Escape:

Sunrise, Cundy’s Harbor, ME – May 2024 photo by Eric Storm Photo

Everyone’s talking about it. Apparently, as with everything political, there are two sides. In real life, Trump was found guilty. For those of you who feel good about what the jury decided, Wrongo would give you all a big hug if you were nearby. In the Republican parallel universe however, he’s the victim of a Communist show trial. Wrongo hasn’t seen this many White men cry since Larry Bird retired. Don’t be surprised if the verdict caused Martha-Ann Alito to lower her “Stop the Steal” flag to half-mast.

You may not have already heard, but one of the jurors who voted to convict Trump regularly gets their news from Truth Social and Fox, meaning against all odds, they were convinced by the evidence. That was most likely the juror Trump was counting to deliver a hung jury.

At the Mansion of Wrong, we opened a bottle of good champagne.

In a nutshell, the reality facing Americans in the presidential election is that one of the two main contenders is a felon whose campaign is based on claiming the system is rigged. From Ed Luce in the Financial Times (paywalled):

“The Republican party’s nominee now joins his former campaign manager, senior political adviser, chief White House strategist, and national security adviser as a convicted criminal. The jury’s speed and unanimity leave little doubt about the watertightness of the verdict.…No matter what his lawyers advise, Trump’s court of appeal will be the US electorate.”

What happens between the guilty verdict in New York and inauguration day on January 20, 2025 will be a comprehensive stress test of American society. The decision will be made by the individual votes of the 244 million citizens who are eligible to vote, many of whom will stay home rather than vote.

November 5^th, 2024 isn’t the end point of this struggle because if the election outcome is disputed, societal forces beyond the courts and the ballot box will again come to draw up sides, as they did in the interregnum between November 2020 and January 2021.

The verdict matters. But is it enough to be decisive? The jury is, well, still out on that, and will be until November. But the verdict is a welcome outcome if you’re anti-Trump. It pierces Trump’s preferred narrative that he’s a winner and it’s plausible that it will depress some margin of potential Trump swing voters while activating the Democratic base.

Biden should seize the moment. He doesn’t need to speak about the details of the NY case, except to profess his faith in the judicial system and his respect for our fellow citizens who served on the jury. He doesn’t have to engage with the hysterical Trump defenders, except to point out their dangerous demagoguery and un-American attacks on our legal and judicial system.

Trump OTOH, can bitch and moan about unfairness all he wants, but only losers do that. And if you’re explaining, you’re losing. So while we should expect Trump’s conviction to have a very small effect on MAGA Republicans, it will be repellant to most centrists. By contrast, the verdict will be a heartening reminder to liberals and anyone invested in responsible government that the system can still work.

But first let’s take a deep breath and let this uplifting moment wash over us. Now, agree to start every conversation about him by saying: “Convicted Felon Donald Trump…”.

From Dan Pfeiffer:

“A lot of polling shows that a conviction is bad news for Trump. The highly respected Marquette University Law School poll recently did a split-sample. The first group was asked “If it turns out that Donald Trump is found guilty in his New York trial, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump?” Biden led Trump 43-39. The other group was asked “If it turns out that Donald Trump is found not guilty in his New York trial, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump?” In that group, Trump led 44-38.”

Other polls are similar. CNN released a poll in late April that offered some interesting details on the voters who could abandon Trump if convicted:

“They tend to be younger than other Trump supporters (64% are younger than 50 compared with 37% of those who would not reconsider), are less likely to be White (49% are people of color compared with 17% of those who would not reconsider), are more apt to report being Biden voters in 2020 (20% of them say they backed Biden in 2020 vs. 6% of those who would not reconsider) and are likelier to acknowledge that Biden legitimately won enough votes to win the presidency four years ago (63% vs. 22% among those who would not reconsider). They are also more apt to be politically independent (49% vs. 31%) and ideologically moderate (50% vs. 38%).”

These are some of the same voters who supported Biden in 2020 but who might defect in 2024. We need to remember that Trump is very good at distracting people from his problems by creating new ones, and most voters have very short attention spans.

America no longer has political guardrails. We no longer have standards which are bottom-line required in order for someone to be considered an admirable person. Apparently, a significant percentage of us are willing to elect anyone who yells the loudest or lies the most.

Still, there’s nothing but upside in believing Trump’s conviction will matter. Because if that turns out to be wrong, America will no longer be a place where it’s worth living.

Sadly, Wrongo has no plans for leaving it.

So it’s time for our Saturday Soother, where for the first time in forever, we can stay plugged into the news and talk about what’s going on with our friends and family. But we still need to take a few moments to consider the upcoming week and what it can mean for the nation. Since there’s beautiful weather in the northeast, start by grabbing a seat outdoors in the shade. Now, watch and listen to two musical performances.

First, “Song from a Secret Garden”, from an album by the Norwegian group, Secret Garden. Their music is sort of neo-classical new-age compositions. Here it is performed in 2022 by the Millennium Symphony Orchestra, a Korean group with solo Cello by Yoon Kyung Cho. It’s a lovely arrangement:

Second for levity, watch and listen to “I fought The Law” by the Bobby Fuller Four from 1966. The tune was written by Sonny Curtis of the Crickets and covered by the Bobby Fuller Four. Their version of the song was ranked No. 175 on the Rolling Stone list of The 500 Greatest Songs of All Time in 2004:

Memorial Weekend Musings

The Daily Escape:

Sunrise, Paines Creek, Brewster, Cape Cod, MA – May 2024 photo by Bob Amaral Photography

Wrongo and Ms. Right just returned from a whirlwind visit to family in Western MA and from there to family on Cape Cod, MA. We then moved on to the Havanese National Dog Show in North Kingston, RI. Now, we’re happy to be back at the Mansion of Wrong, where most of our flowering plants are in bloom or are budding.

Happy Saturday, and welcome to Memorial Day Weekend, when we remember those in the military who died in service to the country. Before 1971, it was called Decoration Day, which was first observed on May 30, 1868, when flowers were placed on the graves of both Union and Confederate soldiers at Arlington National Cemetery. Back then, it was our most solemn holiday.

Memorial Day is Monday, when we mourn the soldiers we knew, and we briefly remember those we never knew personally. By now, the standard American public’s response is, “thank you for your service”. Saying it has become a reflex, like “bless you” when someone sneezes. Our default position is to thank, but not to think. For most of us, America’s foreign wars are a kind of elevator music. Always present, but we barely notice them.

So maybe we watch our town’s parade. There’s likely to be a cookout. It isn’t about love of country. It’s about sad Facebook emojis, Memorial Day mattress sales, and burgers on Monday

Let’s take a moment to think about the wars we are currently waging in Ukraine and Israel. Alex Vershinin, a retired US Army Lt. Col, has an article at RUSI “The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine” about the costs of war and how countries fight them in different ways, which can create great difficulty for the combatants: (brackets and emphasis by Wrongo)

“The US (and Israel) are set up to conduct high intensity, airpower heavy conflicts. Russia has long preferred attrition and that is the battle plan adopted by [Hamas]…Attritional wars require simple to operate weaponry since the odds [are] that both sides will have their experienced and well-trained forces badly thinned, forcing them to rely more and more on not-well-trained recent inductees. And of course being able to produce armaments in huge volumes is also important. The Western dismissiveness towards this strategy, seeing it as primitive, is setting it up for a fall.”

Satyajit Das, a former banker takes a similar view: (brackets by Wrongo)

“War requires massive amounts of equipment, munitions and manpower…..Western powers are currently struggling to match Russia and China in producing armaments for its client states [Ukraine and Israel]. The US and its allies have [not prioritized]…heavy manufacturing essential for weaponry in favor of consumer goods and services.”

This is econospeak for saying that the US and Europe are unable to keep the weapons supply chain full for the two wars they currently support. More:

“In contrast, their opponents have prioritized military manufacturing and maintaining inventories for armed conflict. Western industrial ecosystems, frequently now privatized,…lack the necessary capacity and surge capability.

It has always been true that sophisticated weapons systems can be countered by low-cost and low-tech improvisation. We’re seeing this in Ukraine with the use of cheap drones and missiles that can alter the battlefield situation.

That stands in contrast to America’s ‘boys-with-toys’ syndrome that places its faith in expensive high tech weapons, such as the F35 jets that cost around $150 million. Or Patriot Air Defense Systems that cost over $1 billion, with each interceptor missile costing a further $6-10 million. Individual artillery rounds can cost upwards of $3-5,000.

Given the Russian strategy of attrition, degrading Ukraine’s ability to finance its military action is an essential tactic. Russia’s targeting of industrial and agricultural infrastructure combined with the displacement of manpower has reduced Ukrainian output by about 35%. The cost of rebuilding what has been lost in power plants and other infrastructure is thought to be around $500 billion. Soon, Ukraine will need to restructure the country’s $20 billion international debt to avoid default.

Israel’s obliteration of impoverished, aid-reliant Gaza is economically pointless, unless the goal is to drive Gaza residents away. How and when Gaza gets rebuilt is unknown, but certainly it will take decades. OTOH, Israel’s economy has shrunk by as much as 20%. The call-up of reservists for military service and flight of talent out of the country has disrupted its industries. The conflict has cost Israel around $50 billion (10% of GDP) while increasing Israel’s debt. Its credit rating has been downgraded.

Neither of these wars can go on indefinitely. Ukraine and Israel are reliant on their Western backers who will soon be less able to support them financially or in their demand for more weapons. And in both cases the enemy is conducting wars of attrition. Those type of wars last longer and they test both a warring country’s industrial capacity and its borrowing capacity. From Vershinin:

“Unfortunately, many in the West have a very cavalier attitude that future conflicts will be short and decisive. This is not true….Even middling global powers have both the geography and the population and industrial resources needed to conduct…attritional wars.”

If the West is serious about a possible great power conflict, say between the US and China, or between NATO and Russia, the West needs to look critically at its industrial capacity, mobilization doctrines and their ability to conduct a protracted war.

Today, most US war games take place over a single month of conflict. As Afghanistan and Iraq have taught us, that isn’t a likely outcome. The attritional strategy is counterintuitive to most US military officers. Western military thought views being on offense as the means of achieving the decisive strategic goal: forcing the enemy to come to the negotiating table on unfavorable terms.

But they should know better. All of their recent combat experience acquired in overseas operations says when we’re fighting a war of attrition, we lose.

Anyway, it’s Saturday and time for our Saturday Soother. Here is some beautiful (and meditative) music for your Saturday. The Adagio in G Minor is attributed to Tomaso Albinoni, but actually was composed by 20th-century musicologist and Albinoni biographer Remo Giazotto, purportedly based on the discovery of a manuscript fragment by Albinoni. Albinoni died in 1751, and Giazotto obtained a copyright for the Adagio in 1958.

Is Biden Doing As Badly As The Media Says?

The Daily Escape:

Wisteria, Seattle Japanese Garden – May 2024 photo by Lisa Ketchum

(New columns may be light and variable for the rest of the week as Wrongo and Ms. Right visit family in New England)

Wrongo and Ms. Right spent Sunday celebrating the college graduation of a granddaughter-in-law. That led to some discussion about the current wave of campus demonstrations and how college students seem so lukewarm about Biden.

Wrongo asked if anyone was aware that Biden had delivered the commencement address at Morehouse College in Atlanta, GA earlier that day. Morehouse is one of the HBCU’s (Historically Black Colleges and Universities). None of them knew he was even speaking at a graduation. And given the uproar on campuses across the nation and what we’re hearing about how Black people are moving away from Biden, their thought was that it wasn’t going to be a good day for Biden.

Turned out that Biden had a pretty good day at Morehouse. From Simon Rosenberg:

“Yesterday, President Biden gave what I think is one of the most important speeches of his Presidency.”

As with the presidential debates, in this election year, every Biden speech is pitched by the media as a “make or break” event for Biden as The Atlanta Journal Constitution reports “Biden delivers high-stakes commencement address at Morehouse College”. But as Xitter commenter Scary Lawyer Guy says:

“Of the many double standards employed by the media, Biden needing every speech to be some combination of Lincoln and Cicero while Trump’s public appearances are 90 minutes of word salad, non sequiturs, and dictatorial musings that get no push back, is among the worst.”

Wrongo is still looking for an explanation why every news event is somewhere between a “test” for Biden or a “danger” to his candidacy. You can watch Biden’s entire Morehouse speech here. It was a good speech and an important moment in Biden’s campaign for reelection.

There is some truth to recent polling that shows Biden in difficulty with college students. Pew has a poll showing that younger Americans think Biden favors the Israelis too much (36%), while just 12% of young adults say he’s striking the right balance in the Israel-Hamas war:

These kinds of polls are why the media are concerned about Biden’s popularity, but 41% of those same students say that they’re “not sure” how Biden is doing. That’s five points more than the number who believe he’s doing the wrong thing. And for “all adults”, the favoring the Israelis too much is only at 22%, with the “Not Sure” holding at 40%, eighteen points more than those who dislike what Biden is doing.

Time to wake up, America! As Daniel Miller said after Biden’s speech:

“The media must do better. We all must do better. We cannot allow these lies that have poisoned the minds of the American public to continue unchallenged. We must challenge these lies and we must get the American people to see the truth.”

To help you wake up on a Tuesday morning, watch and listen to “Long Distance Call” from the new album “Sam’s Place”, the first Little Feat album in 12 years. The album title is for Sam Clayton, a Little Feat original who wanted to have Little Feat do an album of blues covers. “Long Distance Call ” was written by blues legend, Muddy Waters, and it has Clayton and Bonnie Raitt on vocals. It was recorded in Memphis TN at the old Sam Philips Studios and Sam and others in the band played on the same old piano that Jerry Lee Lewis played, decades ago:

Sample Lyric:

“I might buy you a brand new Cadillac, baby
If you only speak some good words about me…”

What’s the possibility that the media will find some good words to say about Biden?

Two Bad Stories

The Daily Escape:

Squirrel in a bird feeder, Northbridge, MA – 2024 photo by Paul G. Dailey

Wrongo had planned today to talk more about Ukraine, but the nation’s news had other ideas. We will cover two stories today. First, Supreme Court Justice Alito’s shocking display of gross partisanship at the exact time he was hearing a case regarding the same issue.

On Thursday, in an exclusive, the NYT reported that Alito’s home displayed an upside-down US flag during the days after the January 6 insurrection. In 2021 and since, flying the US flag upside down is a symbol calling for people to “Stop the Steal” of the 2020 election from Trump. In case you miss the significance, that upside down flag is a call to insurrection. And it was displayed by a Supreme Court justice. More from the NYT:

“At the time the Alito’s flew the flag in front of their house, the Court was deciding whether to hear a vote-counting challenge from Pennsylvania. The majority said no, but Alito, joined by Thomas, dissented. They wanted the Court to take the case, whose theme, was that the Pennsylvania election had been stolen”

The NYT reported that Alito emailed the following when asked for comment:

“I had no involvement whatsoever in the flying of the flag. It was briefly placed by Mrs. Alito in response to a neighbor’s use of objectionable and personally insulting language on yard signs.”

Who thinks that makes flying the flag upside down justifiable? Nobody. From Robert Hubbell:

“Alito’s response to the Times is a lie. He owns the flag. He owns the flagpole. He owns the property on which the flag was displayed. He permitted it to remain on display on his property. He, therefore, did have “involvement” in “flying the flag.” It does not matter that it was his wife who physically raised the “Stop the Steal” banner on the flagpole. Alito’s hair-splitting denial is misleading and incomplete—and therefore false.”

We have two Supreme Court justices (and their wives) openly siding with insurrectionists and deciding on cases that involve the insurrection and its leader, Donald Trump. The Court should be renamed “The Court of Supreme Ethical Violations”. Plainly, the Court has lost the ability to police itself.

And for the record, the upside-down flag was flying over the Alito’s’ home on Jan. 17, 2021. Why has it taken the NYT three and a half years to publish such an important story? Wrongo’s faith in the NYT has taken another hit with their deferred reporting on the flag at Alito’s home.

The second report comes from Kyle Tharp at “For What It’s Worth” a newsletter about politics and social media. He reports that pro-Trump content now dominates on TikTok, a platform that Biden began using this year:

“Since November, according to two TikTok officials, there’s been twice as much pro-Trump content as pro-Biden content on the platform….1.29 million positive Trump videos or images, with 9.1 billion views, compared to 651,000 positive Biden posts, with 6.15 billion views…This may not be the most precise survey of the landscape, but that’s still a nearly 10 to 1 ratio of Trump likes to Biden likes, and 12 to 1 in views.” ”

Let’s remember that TikTok is primarily used by younger Americans who may make the difference in which candidate wins in November. Two other points:

“…there are 10.5 million TikTok users in Pennsylvania, 3.4 million in Nevada, 2.4 million in Arizona, 5.4 million in Georgia, and 3.7 million users in Michigan.”

The Biden campaign almost certainly knows those numbers. Tharp says that Democrats and liberal groups have six months to flood the zone with positive pro-Biden news clips or creative original content reaching core audiences on TikTok. They should start now.

That’s enough disturbing news for today, it’s time for our Saturday Soother, when we do our best to forget about Trump’s attempt to bribe Big Oil executives, or why Republicans think showing up at a Manhattan courtroom is good for their careers. Instead, let’s try to focus instead on the natural world around us as we prepare for another week of depressing political news.

Last Thursday was an exciting day on the Fields of Wrong. It’s garbage pickup day, and a medium-size black bear wandered around the Mansion of Wrong looking for treats. Garbage cans are his preferred target, followed by birdfeeders. But our cans were still in the garage, so he left our place without a snack, although several of our neighbors had to clean up their garbage, which the bear had strewn far and wide.

The bluebirds are nesting in our birdboxes, and with all the rain, our fields are very green. We’re expecting good weather today, so grab a seat outside in the shade. Now, watch and listen to the Paganini Ensemble Vienna play Paganini’s “Quartets for Strings and Guitar Vol. 4 Nos. 11, 6 & 13”. These were recorded in Vienna in March, 2022. Paganini’s string quartets with guitar are among his finest chamber compositions:

The Wrongologist

Geopolitics, Power and Political Economy

Category: Playlist

The Democrat’s Dilemma

Why Is The NY Times So Intent On Replacing Biden?

Trump’s Running Mate

Scattered Thoughts On Saturday

Memorial Weekend Musings

Is Biden Doing As Badly As The Media Says?

Two Bad Stories