Category: Politics

The Young Now Drive How We Win Elections

The Daily Escape:

First up, Wrongo discovered since his column about Thomas Miller, that AP/NORC, a respected mainstream polling organization is also asking the revolutionary question “Who do you think will win the election” rather than “Who are you going to vote for?”

It turns out that the answers were directionally similar to Miller’s:

“With two months remaining until the general election, a larger share of registered voters believe Kamala Harris will win compared to Donald Trump.”

The result was Harris, 38% vs. Trump 28%. The rest was split 34% between Don’t Know (14%) and Can’t choose (20%). The results aren’t earth-shaking, but It’s useful to see another organization ask the question.

Second, readers of the Wrongologist primarily skew older, so it is relatively easy for us to be oblivious to what’s going on in social media and the impact it has on our politics. Take for example, TikTok (“TT”). Despite what we think we know, TikTok is becoming the new TV.

Last month, Pew published a new report showing that:

“…about half of TikTok users under 30 say they use the app to keep up with politics and news.”

Here’s a chart:

 

In fact, the Harris campaign’s TikTok account, @kamalahq, has officially passed one billion views! It may sound absurd to crusty old political operatives, but if you want to reach the younger voter, TT seems to have surpassed TV as a place to look for them. From the FWIW Newsletter:

“Gen-Z media consumers use their phones to watch content exactly like it’s TV. These Americans aren’t ‘cord cutters.’ They never had a cord in the first place. Gen-Z spends less time watching traditional TV than any other age group, while Gen-Z TikTok users spend an average of 77 minutes per day on the app.”

More:

“TikTok’s growing…share of Gen-Z attention is even coming for the big streamers like Netflix – more than 50% of Gen-Z have canceled a streaming service in the past 6 months, and 66% would prefer watching TikTok over streaming.”

So TikTok should be the preferred landing spot for political advertising if the candidate is trying to reach Gen-Z.  Harris and Walz have gone on two of the most prominent TikTok shows, Subway Takes and Track Star. (Which we may not have heard of before.)

And the format was much like when they appear with Colbert or Kimmel.

Most Gen-Z consumers watch Colbert or Kimmel in the form of a clip on their phones or tablets, so TikToks function in the same way. The only differences are that TikTok shows are very short, averaging between 90 – 120 seconds of run time. They are optimized to play to the strength of the TT algorithm and go viral, and are produced at a fraction of the budget of traditional TV.

And there’s a huge difference between the Republicans, who in the most competitive Senate races, have made the decision to exclusively focus on old-school television ads, instead of online platforms where a majority of voters spend their time. FWIW found that in Michigan:

“…one prominent GOP Senate candidate had spent [less than] $10,000 online compared to his Democratic rival’s $2 million.”

There’s been a big shift to TikTok after Biden withdrew: Trump content was dominating TT, and had started accumulating many more views, likes, and followers than Biden. FWIW reports that using the social analytics platform Zelf to track sentiment of TikTok posts, pro-Harris content is now the norm on the app.

The growing disparity means that the Democrats are connecting with Gen-Z where they are, in a way that Republicans aren’t able to do by using traditional cable and television ads. While we know that TT has serious legal jeopardy, that won’t become a factor until after the election is decided.

So we’re seeing more about how social media and technology are eclipsing the old school ways of running presidential campaigns. Let’s hope we’re on the right side of this story!

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New Methodology In Presidential Polling

The Daily Escape:

Today let’s take a look at an election prediction technology that may help explain the Harris/Trump polling disparities better than conventional polling. Wrongo, and he’s sure very few of you have ever heard of Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University and his innovative election forecasting model. From Northwestern Now:

“For the second U.S. presidential election in a row, a Northwestern University data scientist is running a novel forecasting platform that updates the odds of a win by former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris each day.

With this level of precision, followers can see how single events — such as a debate, campaign activities or legal rulings — might affect the potential outcome of the U.S. presidential election.”

Miller’s system uses data from PredictIt, the largest private political betting exchange in which users bet real money in real time on political races. He then uses that betting data as input to his models for how the Electoral College will vote. Fortune Magazine picked up on Miller’s work:

“I was intrigued by the highly original methodology Miller deployed in calling the trends, and outcomes, first in the presidential race, then for the two Georgia senatorial contests, where the surprise twin victories gave Democrats control of the upper chamber.”

More:

“In all three 2020 contests, Miller beat virtually every pollster, and modeler parsing multiple voter surveys. He missed the size of Biden’s win in the electoral college by just 12 votes, tagging every state for the correct column save Georgia.”

Here’s Miller’s innovative methodology: (brackets and emphasis by Wrongo)

“For the 2020 Biden-Trump face-off, Miller deployed the pricing posted on the largest US political betting site, Predictit. He took the Predictit odds in…56 individual voting jurisdictions, tracked the hourly changes, and used his proprietary model to roll the data into daily odds that were extremely current given that folks were posting bets for one candidate or the other 24-7 on the site.

For the [Georgia] Senate races, Miller took a different tack. He assembled a group of about 1,200 Georgians whom he lured by agreeing to pay them a few dollars to participate, and extra dollars if they named the contender most likely to win—not the necessarily one they planned to vote for, as well as predict the margin for victory. The method he developed, called a “prediction survey” taking the best parts of the polling and the betting market guided Miller to a near-perfect reading of the voting shares.”

Now you know who Miller is and maybe why we should listen to him.

Miller doesn’t rely on polls he primarily uses the betting markets. He points out that the right question isn’t “who are you voting for” but “who do you expect to win.” He says that while polls tell you about the past, the odds on the betting sites map the future. The traditional method builds in a four to five day lag in data. It also focuses on an opinion today that can be changed by tomorrow.

And while the pollsters don’t pose that query, it’s exactly how the participating bettors are making the presidential election into a market. This kind of analysis is dismissed by mainstream outlets.

But think about it: Miller relies on prediction markets that have tens of thousands of investors, with thousands of shares traded each day. Typical opinion polls involve between one and two thousand respondents.

As of the article, (9/16/24) Predictit is showing a price of 55 cents for Harris, and 45 cents for Trump. Once again, those odds translate in 55% of the popular vote for the Democrat according to Miller’s model. Miller then maps the votes to the Electoral College. So if the “market” situation persists, Trump faces an absolute rout.

From Miller:

“It would be somewhere between the defeats of Barry Goldwater by Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Bob Dole by Bill Clinton in 1996….We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state.”

From his lips.

Of course there are caveats. America’s never witnessed a reversal of fortune remotely as dramatic as this one:

“It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris,”

Before the debate, the numbers were reversed with Trump holding 400 Electoral College votes.

What does it all mean? Time is short. Early voting has started in several states. The distance between Harris and Trump is now so great that only another epic swing would bring Trump back into contention. So Miller predicts that as of right now, it Harris will win big on November 5.

Is this bullshit soothsaying? Maybe. A polling phenom emerges with very election cycle by being the most accurate. We should also remember wild swings can happen. We know the late swing against Clinton in 2016 from the Comey letter precipitated her loss.

Who knows what might happen in the next month and a half? Whatever the outcome Trump will say it was stolen. There’s no scenario in which he won’t.

And there will no doubt be post-election shenanigans with the electoral vote and the courts, and maybe even violence. But if Miller’s work holds up, it would really be hard to see another protracted slow rolling coup attempt.

Some upbeat music for a Saturday. Watch and listen to Telemann’s  “Recorder Concerto in C major, TWV 51:C1, II. Allegro” played in 2020 by the Bremer Barockorchester:

Telemann is always a joy.

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Will The Protagonist Win?

The Daily Escape:

Let’s start with some definitions. According to Proofed, a writing tips blog:

“The protagonist is often (though not necessarily) referred to as the story’s “hero” or central character. At the other end of the spectrum is the antagonist, the character responsible for opposing the protagonist’s objectives.”

Marcy Wheeler, who writes as Emptywheel, had one of the most perceptive columns of the election cycle last week. Speaking about the debate and its aftermath Wheeler said: (brackets by Wrongo)

“…[what] the Vice President did with her animated, often mocking facial expressions….She kept the camera on her the entire time. And more often than not, even her facial expressions conveyed far more than Trump’s rants did.”

The media were surprised, since they had conceived of the debate almost exclusively about how Harris would react to whatever Trump would do. That’s the way they’ve treated Trump since 2015: As the protagonist in a global political drama.

But since the debate, something important happened to the media. Back to Wheeler: (brackets by Wrongo)

“And they left [ the debate] with the certainty that Vice President Kamala Harris was the protagonist of that story.”

Harris the protagonist. Harris, the main character, who’s actions drive the story forward. It wasn’t Trump giving the orders that got the press scurrying. They were marveling at Harris’s crowds, at her command of the issues, at her looking and sounding presidential. At the big energy in the big crowds at her rallies.

But a second possible assassination attempt could have delivered the role of protagonist up for grabs again. Does Wrongo have this right? The guy who was apprehended never had a line of sight on Trump and never shot his weapon. But somehow, Trump has become the victim of another assassination in the Mainstream Media.

It’s most probable that the second assassin is just another mentally ill person looking to give his life meaning. But regardless, Trump worked hard to get the protagonist role back. He tried to use the second attempt to return to being the protagonist. He’s alleged that Democrats have inspired the recent up tick of political violence by characterizing him as a risk to American democracy, as truthfully, he is.

There’s zero evidence that the would-be assassins were motivated or radicalized by Democrats.

The Springfield story is Trump’s second effort to return to being the protagonist. Since it’s predicated on a lie, he can run with it. If the tale of Haitian immigrants stealing people’s pets and eating them were true, then it would only have been a one-day affair. We’d see the police reports. Local and state governments would take some sort of action. The Harris campaign would formulate a response. The story would have a beginning, a middle, and an end.

But then? We’d be back to talking about Harris.

But because it’s a lie, the story doesn’t end. It swirls and gathers strength. The media and local governments try to debunk it. Lots of people believe it anyway. The narrative progresses, trying to get Trump and Vance to admit that they’re lying. They refuse; or equivocate.

And there is no advantageous angle for the Harris campaign to take. If she engages, then it gets even better for Trump, because she becomes a supporting character in his story. And we go from having a conflict between Trump and objective truth to a conflict between Trump and Harris.

And Harris would be no longer talking about the future. She’d be stuck litigating the (obvious) lies of a madman. Just like everyone else has for the last nine years.

But a big lie doesn’t have to change things, no matter how many times Trump plays that card.

Since becoming the protagonist, Harris has leaped in the polls. The New Yorker’s Philip Gourevitch reported on the Morning Consult’s polling of 11,022 likely voters with a margin of error of +/-1 percentage point, taken Sept. 13-15 2024. They summarize:

“Harris leads Trump by a record-high 6 percentage points among likely voters, 51% to 45%, up from a 3-point advantage before their debate last week. Her 51% of support among likely voters, which is also at a record high, is driven largely by her best figures to date among Democrats, Biden 2020 voters, liberals, women, 18- to 34-year-olds and millennials.”

Here’s their chart:

And her image is better than ever: 53% of likely voters have a favorable view of Harris, the largest share they’ve measured this cycle. By comparison, just 44% of voters view Trump favorably.

So one big challenge is for Harris to hold on as the protagonist in the political brawl of 2024. Something that Biden never did, nor have large groups of Trump wanna-be’s over the past nine years.

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State Of Play In Our Politics

Wrongo apologizes for not writing in so long.  As some of you know, he’s fighting a desperate health challenge that will surely limit the columns going forward. Here are a few thoughts about the political state of play in America after the Democrats’ political revolution. Can it get any clearer?

This time, unlike what Gil Scott Heron prophesied, the revolution in America was televised. It was bloodless for Democrats anyway, and it was joyful. That Democrat Boomers tried desperately to hold on to power was understandable. But once they recognized the inevitable, they signed on for the transition. And it’s now a totally different Party. It’s a total cultural and demographic shift, and it will be a winner. From Umir Haque: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“There’s something special happening in America. It’s a moment of transformation. Americans are embracing Kamala’s politics of joy, and Coach Tim’s strength in vulnerability. It feels different, all of this, because it is. It’s not just remarkable for that reason, though—a moment that’s different for America.”

America’s rewriting the rules of its politics.

This election isn’t 2016. Trump wasn’t invincible then but Democrats didn’t know how to run a cultural war and got hosed. They’ve figured it out now. It’s Republicans who haven’t adjusted. They have no plan to grow their base, other than to fire their nominee. Republicans are trying to figure out what to do. They don’t understand today’s politics are not founded on grievance and division.

The Dems are serving notice that they aren’t satisfied with their coalition of African Americans, Hispanics, progressives, urbanites, suburbanites, union workers, and educated professionals. They’re making a play for rural white voters, too. It suggests that Kamala Harris is not trying to win a narrow, blue-wall victory.  She’s making a play to realign our politics.

Hillary Clinton made Wrongo sick when she called Trump supporters “deplorable”. Behavior is deplorable, not people. Eight years later, we’re finally talking about the collective American experience/dream again, And it is really resonating with people. The proposition Democrats are offering is that Trump voters are good people who have been led astray by corrupt leaders. Instead of criticizing them, on Day 3 of the convention Walz welcomed them as friends and called them home.

These are two very different theories of the election. Trump is running to get to 47%. His ceiling is in the neighborhood of 46.5% of the national vote. The Electoral College begins to favor him at 47+%. That is possible, while Harris is playing to get to 52%.

Turning to polling, it’s become an entirely different race. The idea that anything like this would have happened had Biden not stepped down is ridiculous. The other takeaway here, is that it’s still a very close election, particularly given that Trump will not accept a loss. The transformation of the polls is reason for optimism, not complacency:

And energy favors the Dems. Tom Bonier summarizes voter registration changes since the Harris revolution:

He means the same time period in 2022. Democratic registration has increased by over 50%, as compared to only 7% for Republicans. These new registrants are modeled as +20 points Dem, as compared to +6. What’s “wild,” Bonier adds, is that this voter registration spike “even surpasses the post-Dobbs surge.” It’s important to note that new registrants overall have a high propensity to vote the first time after they register.

This means that a number of states will be in play: Democrats stand to benefit in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina with their large populations of Black voters. Expanded registration by Hispanic women will not only help keep Arizona in Kamala Harris’ column, but play a larger role in Georgia and North Carolina as well.

And Trumpworld is shrinking. The Daily Beast reported that the Trump campaign is about to run ads in the area around Mar-a-Lago. Trump insiders say the campaign has paid almost $50,000 to run ads to make Trump and local donors feel good.

It isn’t time for a victory lap. Trump’s wounded, but dangerous. Work the down ballot elections as hard as you can. Oh, and pass the ±70-day /supply of popcorn!

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Biden’s Passing Of The Torch

The Daily Escape:

Mountain goats, Hidden Lake Overlook, Glacier NP, MT – July 2024 photo by Jennifer Pardee Caruso

Today Wrongo wants all of us to think about Biden’s address from the Oval Office last Wednesday. He focused on the challenges facing the country, in particular if Trump were to succeed him. He also said that he was passing the torch to a new generation: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“I believe my record as president, my leadership in the world, my vision for America’s future, all merited a second term. But nothing, nothing, can come in the way of saving our democracy. That includes personal ambition. So, I’ve decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation. That’s the best way to unite our nation. You know, there is a time and a place for long years of experience in public life. But there’s also a time and a place for new voices, fresh voices, yes, younger voices. And that time and place is now.”

There’s the echo of JFK’s 1961 inaugural speech when Biden talks about passing the torch: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“Let the word go forth from this time and place to friend and foe alike, that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans–born in this century, tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace, proud of our ancient heritage–and unwilling to witness or permit the slow undoing of those human rights to which this nation has always been committed, and to which we are committed today at home and around the world.”

A big idea and a smaller one leap out of the Biden speech. As Heather Cox Richardson wrote about the big idea:

“….Biden followed the example of the nation’s first president, George Washington, who declined to run for a third term to demonstrate that the United States of America would not have a king, and of its second president, John Adams, who handed the power of the presidency over to his rival Thomas Jefferson and thus established the nation’s tradition of the peaceful transition of power. Like them, Biden gave up the pursuit of power for himself in order to demonstrate the importance of democracy.”

If you want to know what kind of person someone truly is, watch them do The One Thing In The World They Do Not Want To Do. The most difficult thing, the thing that takes every fiber of their will to accomplish. It’s the ultimate character test, one which Trump could never pass. More from Biden:

“I revere this office, but I love my country more….”

He thus showed us that he had the most crucial qualification for the office of president.

JV Last observed a small thing about Biden’s speech that in reality is a big thing: the watch that he wore on Wednesday night. Wrongo didn’t know that Biden is a watch guy. From JV Last:

 “For the watch guy, your watch means something. You’re not throwing on a timepiece. You’re choosing a companion, a wingman, a talisman. Last night, Biden wore a Rolex Datejust 41 with a smooth bezel and blue sunburst dial. It’s the most classic and low-key watch imaginable. Elegant, yet wholly unobtrusive. More important, though, is the watch’s provenance. Biden’s Datejust was a gift from his wife. He wore it first on January 20, 2021, at his inauguration.”

More:

“It is a lock that Biden chose his Datejust…because he understood he was bookending his presidency. Bookending his professional life….In such a moment, a watch guy would want the watch that means the most to him because it was given to him by the most important person in his world.”

Kinda makes you want to tear up a little bit. You can get a more detailed look at Biden’s watches here.

Since this is our Saturday Soother, where we try to let go of the possibility that Trump will dump Vance for Nikki Haley, let’s close with some music that’s appropriate to Biden’s speech. You may remember when in 2015, the cast of Hamilton performed at the White House. At that time, Christopher Jackson (who played George Washington) sang “One Last Time” along with Lin Manuel Miranda. That night, the audience included Joe Biden. Here’s the video of that performance:

It’s impossible to watch this with all we know now, without wondering what Biden was thinking when he watched George Washington’s farewell from Hamilton.

Let’s leave the final words to JV Last:

“The first Baby Boomer president decided that the presidency was all about him….Bill Clinton was a successful president. But along the way he disgraced the office and clung to power with…self-importance that progressed from unseemly, to destructive, to pathological.

He set a standard that other politicians would soon follow—the ne plus ultra being Donald Trump, whose desire to cling to power progressed from pathological, to criminal, to treasonous.

The lesson the Baby Boomer presidents taught us is that you must never give up. You should brazen it out. You can weather the storm. Any collateral damage caused by your refusal to yield power is just the price of doing business. Power, once grasped, should never be willingly surrendered.”

For what it’s worth, Biden, like Wrongo, is a member of the Silent Generation. He’s not a Boomer. Biden has returned America to a better path. He reminded us that there is honor in letting go. That the true patriot yearns to see his country move beyond him.

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Harris’s Chances This Fall

The Daily Escape:

Storm over Mt. Tom, Easthampton MA – July 2024 photo by Stef Michael

It’s sad that Biden is unable to carry the torch, but Wrongo’s never been happier with the Democratic Party. The leadership made an incredibly difficult decision to insist that despite winning the nomination of the Party, Biden shouldn’t accept it. The reality was that neither Biden nor the Party could responsibly argue that Biden would be fit to serve another four and a half years in office. Worse, the American people simply weren’t buying that he could.

So the past 30(ish) days constituted the best example in Wrongo’s lifetime of a political party doing what a political party is supposed to do, which is to put the interests of the Party, and by extension the interests of the country, ahead of the interests of any individual. Even if that person happens to be the president of the US.

This shows the central difference between the Democrats and the cult of personality we formerly called the Republican Party. It’s impossible to imagine the Republicans removing Trump as its presidential candidate.

By contrast, the Democrats gradually came to a collective conclusion after the June 27 debate that circumstances had changed enough to warrant bringing maximum institutional pressure on Biden to withdraw from the race. We will never know how well Biden would have done in the election compared to how Harris will do. The Party decided, and the Party made the right decision — as most critically, did Biden himself.

We’ve all seen the energy, enthusiasm, fresh hope, and tons of money that have poured into the Democrats’ coffers. But how realistic is Harris’s path to the White House?

It’s only day four, and Harris, the (very) likely Democratic presidential nominee, is still getting loads of positive press while Democrats are falling all over themselves to give her money and volunteer to work on the campaign. It may be early but it’s worth looking at Harris’s path to winning 270 Electoral College votes in order to keep the White House out of Trump’s hands.

The Harris campaign told Politico about how they see the Electoral College map:

“The Midwest is not where the opportunity is for her….The opportunity with her… is going to be Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania. And however those four states go, the rest of the country will follow.”

That thinking is based on the EC maps produced by 270towin.com. Here’s their current take:

Now Wrongo doesn’t think that PA and MI are currently toss-ups. He thinks that they lean Democratic, making the spread: Harris 260 vs. Trump at 251, with just 27 toss-up EC votes remaining. Wrongo is uncertain that Harris can win North Carolina, despite having a Democratic governor and both of its GOP senators having won last time by less than 2 percentage points. Mark Robinson, the NC Republican gubernatorial candidate is perhaps the worst in the US. Having said that it was acceptable to kill people on the left, and that women shouldn’t be allowed to vote, he should be a real drag on the Trump vote.

But Harris may be able to take Georgia and Arizona as well as Pennsylvania and Michigan. Here’s that map:

In fact, in this scenario, Harris could lose either Georgia or Arizona, and still get to 270.

If you’re looking for an upside, Harris has more viable paths to 270 electoral votes than Biden did. However, Trump has more places (Virginia and Minnesota) to expand the map than does Harris (North Carolina). So the map STILL favors Trump, since he has more paths to 270.

So we’ve gone from no realistic path to victory to setting the stage for victory. We shouldn’t forget that Trump essentially has a ceiling. Politico has reported a 700% increase in voter registration at Voter.com in the last 48 hours. The higher the turnout, the better for Harris.

When Biden was running, many people said, “It’s hopeless, Trump will win.” And now, they’re feeling energized. OTOH, some are thinking that “Harris is raising so much money, maybe I don’t need to do anything.”

We can’t be lazy or passive, the stakes are too high. There’s an organization, Focus4Democracy, a group of smart people with decades of experience crafting effective campaign messages. They do a zoom every 2 weeks. The next one is Sunday, July 28 @ 8:00 pm EST. You can register at bit.ly/F4D28July . Their Zooms explain how they test and refine messages that generate more Democratic votes, particularly in battleground states. And they track the results. They also need donations.

Speaking of messaging, Harris’s first appearance as the Democratic nominee in Milwaukee was promising. At the strategic level, here’s what she did:

  • Highlighted her time as a prosecutor and tied that to Trump’s crimes.
  • Positioned her campaign as focused on middle-class, kitchen-table issues.
  • Framed the choice as “striding into the future” vs. “being dragged into the past.”

Here’s some things she did not do:

  • Describe Trump as a threat to democracy.
  • Reference the historic nature of her campaign as a black woman.
  • Reach out to the left.

The things she didn’t do were very smart. She didn’t give any policy details. In a 100-day campaign, she needs to be as light on details and as long on ideas as possible. At some point she’ll need to come up with a couple of concrete proposals.

There was no “democracy” talk. While most Democrats view this election in terms of democratic backsliding, polls consistently show that “democracy” isn’t something voters care much about. To the extent Harris gestured toward democracy, it was to frame the choice as:

“Do we want to live in a country of freedom, compassion, and the rule of law? Or a country of chaos, fear, and hate?”

Branding Trump as “chaos” while framing her agenda as “freedom” seems more effective than talking about “saving democracy,” the way most Dems prefer.

There was no talk of identity politics. Everything about Harris’s nomination is historic. She’s the first Black woman to be nominated for president by a major party. She’s the first Democrat to run against an insurrectionist. The first person to be swapped into a presidential nomination at the final hour. But these firsts are all out there. So unlike Hillary, she doesn’t need to talk about them. And maybe not talking about the historic nature of her candidacy makes it even more powerful in the minds of voters.

Wrongo likes Harris’s energy and focus on the future! In the immortal words of Tom Brady, “Let’s goooo!”

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Now What?

The Daily Escape:

Sunset, Harpswell, ME – July 2024 photo by Jeffery Scott Smith Photography

Is it possible to appreciate just how bad July 2024 has been? Wrongo counts July as beginning on June 27, the date of the first presidential debate. Start with Trump v. US and then go on to Biden’s debate debacle, and now to Biden’s decision to end his campaign for another term.

Every day of this month has moved us beyond anything Wrongo ever imagined as possible, even though he’s become politically pretty jaded over the years. We’ve never seen people so tense; feeling so helpless. And no one really knows what’s next: We’re staring into uncertainty. Despite that, Wrongo’s relieved Biden is quitting the race. Good on him for admitting, despite every instinct that got him here in the first place, that it was time to go.

Let’s hope that on this Monday morning we’re ready to fight for the one thing that matters: Electing Kamala Harris in November.  Because despite what Republicans like to say, Biden was the best president of the last 50 years, and we can build on that legacy by getting Kamala Harris elected. Also, let’s flip the script and start talking about presidential candidates being old and demented, without the worry that we’re also describing our own selves. Don’t you wonder if the press will notice?

Biden’s done this the best way possible. He made it clear he’s capable of doing the job and intends to do it until January. He endorsed Harris, and immediately pivoted to the importance of beating Trump. And now the Democratic Party is lining up behind Harris.

And imagine how delicious it will be for Harris to preside over the Electoral College vote that elects her president!

Turning to the choice for VP? Wrongo has three suggestions. He wrote about picking PA governor Josh Shapiro a few weeks ago. PA is a crucial swing state that the Dems have to win to keep Trump out of the White House. A January Quinnipiac University poll showed Shapiro had a 59% job approval rating. Shapiro also is a good social media warrior and would be great on the campaign trail.

Sen. Mark Kelly of AZ would also be an interesting choice. He’s also from a swing state that has a Democratic governor to fill his seat until a special election. It’s important to remember that Kelly is a prodigious funds raiser, who was an astronaut. He is completely qualified to talk about gun violence and its impact on families.

Third, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan would also deliver a swing state to the Democratic column. She flipped control of the MI state legislature to the Dems in the 2022 midterm elections. When Whitmer ran for reelection in 2022, she won by nearly 11 points, reflective of her broad appeal in a state where the margins are rarely so big (Biden won MI by 2.8% in 2020). And think about how Trump would try to attack a team of two women. It wouldn’t be easy, given how Trump prefers to demonize and stereotype his opponents!

Time to wake up America! We’re in that crucial period between Trump’s first coup attempt and his second! But the political landscape just shifted under your feet. A team of young Democrats could change the conversation, adding stories about women, young people, people of color, and critically, how Americans have had to adjust in the face of change and disruption. Voters would rally to that story.

To help you wake up watch and listen to the Marsh Family perform a parody about JD Vance to the Abba tune “Dancing Queen”. They’re a family of six from Kent in the UK  who say:

“…here’s our less-than-impressed profile of yet another populist politician with highly flexible morality, worrying contempt for democratic process and discourse, but big funding and a big mouth who’s happy to tap into ordinary people’s fears while claiming to be an example of their dreams.”

Apparently Vance made an ill-advised splash by pretending concern about nuclear proliferation and half-jokingly describing the UK as an “Islamist country”:

The video is terrific!

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Beat Him With Ballots, Not Bullets

The Daily Escape:

Sunrise, Jordan pond trail, Acadia NP – July 2024 photo by Joe Lacroix

President Biden addressed the nation on Sunday. He said he’s ordering an independent review of the assassination attempt on Trump at his political rally in PA on Saturday night. And he denounced the attack as contrary to everything we stand for as a nation.

After the shooting Biden called Trump and asked him if he was okay. Biden also suspended his campaign temporarily, including posting on social media. Over two presidential campaigns, Trump has done nothing but insult Biden and make fun of him, but Biden called him and asked him if he was okay. That’s the definition of a leader.

If you follow the news closely, you’ve seen every major Democratic leader in the country resolutely condemning this political violence. Yet quite a few Republican members of Congress wasted no time in politicizing the attack on Trump by blaming Biden. Those Republicans, of course, will be given a pass, as always.

And the story will continue to dominate the news for several weeks: What was the shooter’s motive? His politics? (if any). There will rightly be serious questions about the Secret Service’s actions (and inaction). Many will strive to blame the inflammatory Trump rhetoric as a contributor to the attempted act.

Will it boost Trump’s chances? That’s difficult to say, but it has certainly inflamed his base. Teddy Roosevelt was shot and then lost. Gerald Ford was shot at twice and lost. Reagan’s approval rating quickly returned to where it was before Hinckley tried to kill him. History isn’t exactly a blueprint for electoral success.

OTOH, Trump’s now equal parts hero and victim to the Republican base. They will remember and repeat the line from his stump speech:

“In the end, they’re not coming after me. They’re coming after you — and I’m just standing in their way.”

The conjunction of Trump shot and bleeding, along with getting to his feet with blood running down his face, and raising his fist while yelling “fight, fight, fight” will make him an action hero for Republicans. It’s already the cover of Time magazine:

And as you should have expected, within 24 hours after the shooting, a messianic narrative was emerging around Trump. On Friday, it was impossible to imagine Trump as a sympathetic figure, but now? It’s become possible. Think about the MAGA narrative:

  • The Deep State Secret Service (run by Biden) didn’t protect our guy. The government failed them once again. It had to be planned!
  • Trump is instantly the manliest man among all men. Defiant, strong. He’s even more MAGA than EVER!
  • The Dems planned this because they couldn’t get him in the criminal or civil court system. So this is how they tried to rid us of him.
  • If the Dems attack Trump, they are attacking a man who was almost assassinated. How could you attack such a warm and loving man of God? (barf).

As to Biden’s candidacy? The assassination attempt will put any talk of replacing Biden aside for now. But if Trump makes inroads in the polls as a result of this, the talk of a replacement will begin again.

Wrongo has zero sympathy for Trump, not now, or before the shooting. You want 18 year-olds to have automatic weapons? You want to cheer on guys like Putin? You laugh at Paul Pelosi getting seriously injured? You want to minimize the plot against Gretchen Whitmer? You say Ashley Babbit was a martyr? You want to pardon all of the 1/6 criminals?

Trump is reaping what he has sown. We live in a very angry and dangerous gun climate created by Trump and the Republican Party. The reality is that Trump got a minor injury in an assassination attempt, and then proceeded to ham it up in response, demonstrating his sure feel for the cameras.

That doesn’t change the fact that Trump is STILL a repugnant con-man, criminal, pathological liar, serial sexual abuser who should be kept away from the White House.

Wake up America! Did the job get harder? Quite possibly. But the job is still to defeat Trump in November, but by VOTES, not bullets.

Sorry, there’s nothing to sing about on this Monday.

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Cartoons Of The Week

Every cartoonist tried to pile on the “Biden’s too old” story this week. Some were ok, most were obvious and mean-spirited, including many depicting the First Lady as the power behind the throne, manipulating a doddering Biden.

Yesterday, Wrongo said that since the election will be determined by turnout of a very few votes in a very few states. He likes this question from Robert Kuttner: Do the Democrats have the energy to turn out enough voters for down ballot races? Will those voters also vote for the top of the ticket?:

“Think of it as reverse coattails. One impressive feat, especially since Trump’s election in 2016, has been a massive effort to increase the size and turnout of potential Democratic voters. Most of this has been done outside the institutional Democratic Party, though in a few states such as Wisconsin the party has been a major force.”

Better turnout on the Democratic side, especially among “low-propensity” groups, such as young people and voters of color, far more than trying to win over swing voters, was key to helping Biden win in 2020. It also allowed Democrats to do better than expected in the midterm elections of 2018 and 2022. It can work again.

On to cartoons. The last convention that Chicago hosted wasn’t a win for the Dems:

The fundamental question still isn’t resolved:

Memory problems exist my friends:

Heritage takes aim at you and me:

The only book Republicans won’t ban:

The one candidate with a mugshot:

The real question for November:

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Biden For The Win?

The Daily Escape:

Sunset, North Fork Reservoir from Mt. Mitchell, NC – July 2024 photo by Mandy Gallimore. Mt. Mitchell is the highest mountain in the Eastern US.

More thoughts about Biden’s press conference: While Wrongo thinks that Biden’s claim to the nomination has been strengthened, that hasn’t quieted the naysayers in the Democratic Party, and many in the press remain focused on his gaffe about Harris. Still, Wrongo is going to assume that Biden will remain at the top of the ticket. The question becomes how to shift the discourse to describing the consequences of a second Trump administration? Wrongo might say:

“Do you want a country run by an old felon who has bankrupted every business he’s owned and filled his administration with phony religious zealots at every level who are only loyal to him? Or do you want an older competent leader with years of government experience surrounded by good people with the best interest of the country?

Do you want chaos and turmoil or competence and compassion? If you’re still undecided think about the consequences of your decision for your children and grandchildren. It’s your choice.”

Wrongo was struck by data from this recent NPR Marist poll:

“With just days to go before the start of the Republican National Convention…Biden and former President…Trump continue to be closely matched among registered voters in both a head-to-head matchup and a multicandidate field….Biden’s support remains relatively unchanged from last month despite the view of many Americans that he lacks the mental fitness to serve as president.

The poll also found that Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and Gretchen Whitmer do not improve the Democrats’ chances against Trump. Harris receives support from 50% of registered voters to 49% for Trump. Newsom garners 50% to 48% for Trump. Whitmer receives 49% of the vote to 49% for Trump.

Here’s the top line results:

There are only 2% undecided, which means winning the election is dependent on turnout.

The poll also says that Biden outperforms Trump on which candidate has the character to be president. By more than two to one, Americans are more concerned about a president who lies than they are about someone who is too old to serve:

“Americans are overwhelmingly more concerned about a president who plays fast and loose with the facts than someone who is too old to serve. Nearly seven in ten Americans (68%) think it is more concerning if a president does not tell the truth. Nearly one in three (32%) think it is more concerning if someone is too old to serve. Democrats (85%), independents (66%), and a slim majority of Republicans (51%) agree that dishonesty is of greater concern over advanced age.”

More from the cross-tabs:

“Nearly two in three Americans (64%), including 38% of Democrats and 35% of Biden supporters, do not think Biden has the mental fitness to serve as president. 68% of independents say the same. Americans divide (50% mentally fit to 49% mentally unfit) about Trump’s mental acuity.”

At the press conference, Biden questioned the reliability of the polls and they really don’t seem very believable to Wrongo. They all show it’s a close race, but we should be very skeptical that we’re getting a real look at the state of the race.

Those Democrats who want Biden out — either because they think he can’t win, or because of his decline in mental acuity, or both — have a very weak political argument. As of this writing, Biden stays. With the WaPo having the race tied and NPR having Biden slightly ahead, why would the man give up the nomination because a handful of House members, a Senator of two (publicly) and a bunch of cranky donors want him to quit?

For the sake of argument, say it remains Biden v. Trump. There’s a practical political argument to be made to vote for Biden, even if you think that he won’t be able to serve four years. There will be an experienced Democratic VP able to take over and an administration led by thousands of Democratic appointees to continue to carry the load.

Contrast that with the possibility that Trump won’t serve a full term if elected, an event that is also quite likely. Think about whoever is his possible successor, along with an administration filled according to the Project 2025 blueprint can do to America. That seems to be a crash and burn scenario.

Congressman Jim Himes (D-CT) thinks that Biden should step aside. In speaking with MSNBC’s Alex Wagner, she asked what he saw in Biden’s post-NATO press conference that led him to call for Biden to step aside, Himes responded this way: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“…Alex, it’s really not about tonight. And one of the, really, kind of sick aspects of this moment is that we are watching every speech, every rally, every debate, and saying, how did he do today? And that’s just not the way to think about the presidency of the US.”

In other words, the price of Biden running, as Wrongo said, is to be on tender hooks until Election Day waiting for another ugly shoe to drop. If Democrats decide to keep Biden as their nominee — or, more accurately, if they are not able to pressure him off the ballot — that is what they have to look forward to for the next four months.

This November is not about dueling personalities, middle-of-the-road policy differences, or as some see it, an 81-year-old man being the lesser of two evils compared with a 78-year-old man. It’s a referendum on our democracy, and a choice between a trustworthy public servant who can be counted on to uphold American values and a felon who wants to push the country into authoritarianism.

Enough! It’s time to take a break from Biden’s political shortcomings. It’s now Trump’s turn to release his detailed medical records. To release his tax returns. To hold an hour-long foreign policy press conference.

Hey, let’s relax, it’s still the summer, and you can spare a few moments to forget about the election and stressing about whoever Trump plans to appoint as his VP next week. It’s time for our Saturday Soother. Here at the Mansion of Wrong, we’re enjoying temperate weather, unlike most of the US. Rain is promised and occasional showers, but this week, the days have been warm and dry.

To help you leave the political world behind for a few minutes, grab a chair in an air-conditioned room and watch and listen to “The Barcarolle” from Offenbach’s Les Contes d’Hoffmann. Here, soprano Fatma Said and mezzo-soprano Marianne Crebassa duet to great effect. They are joined by the Philharmonic Orchestra of Monte Carlo, conducted by Sascha Goetzel:

This is probably what heaven sounds like on a Saturday evening.

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