Old Stone Church, West Boylston, MA – January 2024 photo by Demi Pita
As Wrongo said in his last post, there was an 80th birthday celebration for him over the MLK weekend. It was a very gratifying experience spending time with friends and family from many parts of the country. Here are a few quick comments on the Iowa Caucuses and whatâs coming.
âIn 2016, Republicans set a turnout record with 186,000 caucus participants â up from 119,000 in 2008. Last night, the Iowa Republican Party estimated about 100,000 Iowans â a big drop from just four years ago.â
Many will attribute this shortfall to the frigid weather. But weather alone doesnât explain why turnout was cut by 46% since 2016.
Second, Nikki Haley finished third with about 20% of the vote, but a significant percentage of her voters said that they wouldnât vote for Trump in the general election. From Simon Rosenberg:
âIn the NBC News/Des Moines Register poll released this past weekend more Haley voters – 20% of Iowaâs GOP vote – said they would support Biden in the general election than Trump.â
Hereâs MSNBCâs Steve Kornacki with the details:
More from Rosenberg:
âLetâs review the math here. If 43% of Haley voters said they would vote for Biden over Trump, thatâs about 8% of the GOP electorate, or 3-4% of the national vote.â
This is consistent with general polling that suggests that between a third and 40% of Republicans are anti-MAGA. That may be something the Biden campaign can exploit in November if itâs representative of the feelings of GOP voters across the nation.
The breathless media reaction to the Trump win is laughable. From political twitterer Mueller, She Wrote:
Think about it: 56,000 Iowans voted for Trump. Thatâs 0.000168% of the population of the country, so the media shouldnât be making it seem as if this was a victory for the ages. As John Fugelsang put it: (emphasis by Wrongo)
âPeople, can we stop negatively harping on how only 14% of Iowa GOP showed up to vote? And not dwell on how this means only 7% of Iowa GOP voted for Trump? Let’s TRY to be positive & just remind the media how this means 93% of registered Iowa Republicans didn’t vote for Trump.â
Despite all of these thoughts, Trump will easily win the GOP nomination. If either Haley or DeSantis were a better candidate, it may have made Iowa look a little more respectable, but Trumpâs opposition was always sure to lose.
So, take your minds off of the media hype around the Iowa caucuses. Remember that going forward, should “Not Biden” get 49% of any Democratic primary vote, the media will go completely ape-shit over it.
Finally, it may be that Republicans are less enthusiastic this time around. Trump doesnât ever say anything new, and Republicans have lost almost every significant election since 2016, and no one likes always being on the losing team. The 91 counts against him are also a factor. Nikki Haleyâs message that Trump simply had too much baggage seems to be resonating.
Instead of thinking about alternatives to Trump, think about how you can help take back Democratic control of the House of Representatives.
Housatonic River, near Appalachian Trail, Bulls Bridge, CT – January 2024 photo by Jane Haslam
Weâre into the MLK, Jr. holiday weekend, during which Wrongo, Ms. Right and our extended families and friends are gathering to observe Wrongoâs 80th birthday which occurred late last year. That means this column will be brief but paradoxically, unfocused.
In addition to MLKâs birthday, is anyone else worried about the expansion of the Israel/Hamas war into the Red Sea? From NBC:
âThe United States and Britain launched military strikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen on Thursday, after weeks of mounting attacks (on commercial shipping) by the Iran-backed militant group in the Red Sea.
The strikes, carried out from land and sea, threatened an expansion of the conflict in the Middle East beyond Israel’s war in Gaza â an escalation the Biden administration and its allies have been working to avoid.â
Nothing about this should be surprising. Houthi leadership have been near-begging for airstrikes against them for the last month, given their continued attacks on international ships attempting to use the Red Sea to transit the Suez Canal.
The reaction so far has been as expected. The Houthis have pledged retribution. Pro-Palestinians claim this is the start of WWIII. Some Republicans in Congress say this strike is not authorized, but Wrongo isnât sure that was necessary.
Anyone who looks at Americaâs history with cruise and tomahawk missile attacks knows that they are not particularly effective at taking out land-based military installations. It doesnât seem particularly likely that these strikes will either prevent or deter attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. But it also doesnât seem likely to escalate things much beyond where we are right now.
Americaâs military often says âsomething must be done, and this is somethingâ, and this seems to be another example. And the alternative of confining ourselves only to defensive responses may not have been any better.
Either way, we seem to be looking at a larger and more long-term military presence in the Red Sea. If the Houthi leadership wants to be part of the Israel/Hamas war, then theyâre going to be a part of it. Whether the Houthis benefactor Iran wants them to attack global shipping companies is an unanswered question for now.
Is the Iranian leadership about to start a war? The real question is with whom? Iran has a very highly educated population and a diaspora of people waiting to help push the theocrats out if those theocrats slip up. Iranâs options (in a war) would be the many countries that they share land borders with. Those are Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq (who they fought with for 10 years), Turkmenistan, and Pakistan, (a nuclear power). Also Turkey, (in NATO), Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Among countries they don’t share a land border with, are the Saudis or Israel or US, all of which would likely result in Iran getting at least some of the shit bombed out of them. So a war started by Iran seems unlikely, but âHouthis disrupt global shipping from Yemen” was not on Wrongoâs 2024 bingo card, and it’s still January
Since itâs Saturday, letâs close with a musical statement that echoes MLKâs enduring message. Watch and listen to âKeep Your Eyes On The Prizeâ, a folk song from the American civil rights movement.
The song was composed as a hymn before World War I, but the lyrics in this version were written by civil rights activist Alice Wine in 1956. It is based on the traditional song, âGospel Plowâ, which is also known as âHold Onâ, and âKeep Your Hand On The Plowâ.
In this version from 2006, Bruce Springsteen starts on vocals, but when Marc Anthony Thompson (with hat) joins him, it becomes a great soul-stirring anthem. Thus, an instructional guide for all of us:
Sample lyrics:
Paul and Silas bound in jail
Had no money to go their bail
Keep your eyes on the prize
Hold on
 Paul and Silas thought they were lost
Dungeon shook and the chains come off
Keep your eyes on the prize
Hold on
Freedom’s name is mighty sweet
And soon we’re gonna meet
Keep your eyes on the prize
Hold on
I got my hand on the gospel plow
Won’t take nothing for my journey now
Keep your eyes on the prize
Hold on
The only chain that a man can stand
Is the chain of hand on hand
Keep your eyes on the prize
Hold on
Desert sunflowers at dawn in Anza-Borrego SP, CA looking west to the San Ysidro Mountains – January 2024 photo by Paulette Donnellon
Wrongo didnât expect to again be writing about Boeingâs problems with its MAX aircraft, but here we are. From CNBC:
âThe Federal Aviation Administration on Saturday ordered a temporary grounding of dozens of Boeing 737 Max 9 aircraft for inspections, a day after a piece of the aircraft blew out in the middle of an Alaska Airlines flight.â
More:
â…video of Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 that were shared on social media showed a gaping hole on the side of the plane and passengers using oxygen masks before it returned to Portland shortly after taking off for Ontario, California, on Friday afternoon.â
What blew off of the plane is a âdoor plugâ, not a door. The configuration used by Alaska Airlines didnât require an emergency exit door in that location so Boeing installed a door plug, which is attached to the planeâs skin and covered on the inside so that it appears to be a windowless wall.
Seats adjacent to the blowout were by chance, unoccupied. The accident depressurized the cabin and headrests were detached from two nearby passenger seats, the back of one seat was gone. Hereâs a picture taken after the plane landed safely:
Boeing and the Alaska Airlines passengers were very lucky in two respects: First, that no one was sitting in the seats where it happened, and Second, that it didnât occur at cruising altitude. The sudden depressurization at altitude would have been a disaster with many lives lost.
This happened on a plane that had been in service for just 10 weeks! And it happened a few days after Boeing asked every airline to check their Max-9âs for missing rudder bolts:
And that was only a couple weeks after Boeing asked the FAA to give them a pass on a design flaw in the planeâs engine de-icer.
You remember that this is the plane that Boeing famously mis-programmed to nosedive into the ground. You may have forgotten that Boeing paid a big price:
âIn 2021, Boeing agreed to pay more than $2.5 billion to settle a criminal charge related to the crashes. Under the deal, Boeing was ordered to pay a criminal penalty of $243.6 million while $500 million went toward a fund for the families whose loved ones were killed in the crashes. Much of the rest of the settlement was marked off for airlines that had purchased the troubled 737 Max planes.â
These are huge issues with quality and quality control. There are also problems with suppliers. The WSJ reported:
âFuselage maker Spirit AeroSystems is responsible for installing the emergency-door configuration involved in Fridayâs incident. Spirit AeroSystems was working with Boeing on Saturday to determine what went wrong….Spirit AeroSystems was also responsible for the misdrilled holes on the fuselages that disrupted production in 2023.â
Spirit changed CEOs in October 2023, hiring Patrick Shanahan, a 30-year Boeing veteran. Since then, Boeing has invested in and worked more closely with Spirit to address âproductionâ problems.
The Max is the best-selling plane in Boeingâs history. The more than 4,500 outstanding orders for the plane account for more than 76% of Boeingâs order book. Of the nearly three million flights scheduled globally this month, about 5% are planned to be made using a Max, mostly the Max 8.
Wrongo has written about Boeing before and how it lost its culture of engineering prowess and expertise. It began valuing financial engineering over aerospace engineering in 2009-2017 by engaging in $30 billion in stock buybacks, an amount that exceeded its earnings. Then in 2018, buybacks of $9 billion constituted 86% of annual earnings and late in 2018, they approved $20 billion more in buybacks.
Rank capitalism is a big element in this story. Passenger safety has been sacrificed to Wall Street profit-taking and bonuses for Boeingâs shareholders and executives. Until the culture changes back to one focused on engineering, the company will continue to be a hot mess.
Boeing needs a senior management change, and fast, before more people die on their airplanes. Wrongo will certainly avoid flying a 737 Max in the future.
Time to wake up, Boeing! Youâre using euphemisms like âproduction problems” or âsupplier problems” to describe improperly drilled holes. There should be no circumstance where a section of the fuselage falls off an airplane in flight. Â This is systemic, an organization-wide failure.
To help you wake up, watch and listen to Larkin Poe, who Wrongo has featured before, doing a cover of Son Houseâs âPreachin’ Bluesâ:
Sample Lyric:
I’m gonna get me some religion
I’m gonna join the Baptist church
Gonna be a preacher
So I don’t have to work
Itâs been three years since the Insurrection on Jan. 6. One of the determining factors of the outcome of 2024 presidential election will be whether the cases against Trump for his role in the Insurrection are decided before the election on November 5th of this year. Itâs just 303 days away. That isnât a lot of time, and there remains only a small possibility that Trump will be convicted and sentenced to prison for his role in fomenting either the violence at the Capitol or in the stolen documents case before November.
Wrongo no longer expects that either of the political cases against Trump will be decided by then.
Hopefully you realize that if those cases are still pending on Nov. 5 and Trump wins the election, the US government will withdraw from them, eliminating the possibility of Trump ever being convicted.
The failure of the DOJ to see the past four years as an asset that had to used quickly and decisively before it was used up by the Trump teamâs procedural appeals, is unforgivable. This also applies to the DOJ efforts to try the downstream Jan. 6 insurrectionists. From the NYT:
âAs of December, about 1,240 people had been arrested in connection with the attack, accused of crimes ranging from trespassing, a misdemeanor, to seditious conspiracy, a felony.â
Another 350 cases are still pending. Thatâs out of a total of nearly 3, 000 people who have been identified as Jan. 6 insurrectionists. So far, around 170 people have been convicted at trial, two people have been fully acquitted, and about 710 people have pleaded guilty. More than 450 of them were sentenced to jail time, ranging from a handful of days to more than 20 years.
Yet the instigator of all that happened that day remains free. And his public still support him. Here is a chart from the WaPo that shows how the view of Trumpâs responsibility for the Jan. 6 insurrection have changed over time:
The survey also found that over a third of Americans now believe Bidenâs election was illegitimate compared to a December 2021 WaPo survey. Republicans are also less likely to believe that Jan. 6 participants were âmostly violentâ. Only 18% of them believe the people who entered the Capitol on 1/6 were in that category. They are less likely to believe Trump bears responsibility for the attack.
This prove that Mark Twain was right: you can indeed fool some of the people all of the time.
A few months ago, the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) released its annual American Values Survey. Buried inside their extensive report was a very alarming finding:
âOne-third of Republicans and 46% of people who think the 2020 election was stolen believe that âtrue American patriots may have to resort to violence to save the country.ââ
This is a dangerous powder keg: An increasingly unhinged former President, and a Republican base that believes violence may be the only way to preserve America as they know want it.
When Wrongo speaks about âdreadâ in the political sense, his biggest fear in 2024 is the powder keg weâre sitting on. If Trump loses again, we are certain to see more political violence from the Right. And if he wins? No one should think there is a zero chance of violence against Trumpâs political enemies.
This brings to mind a quote from Churchill, who when speaking about countries appeasement of Hitler said:
âEach one hopes that if he feeds the crocodile enough, the crocodile will eat him last.â
That is clearly true for many Republicans and most of the media.
A lot of Democrats are down in the dumps these days. They are frustrated with the lack of progress on some issues (immigration) and by the never-ending cycle of bad polling on Bidenâs popularity. Some were hoping to vote for a younger or more progressive Democrat this time around.
Those feelings are legitimate, and it is incumbent on Biden and his campaign to persuade people why they must exercise their voting power against the dark forces on the Right. Democracy canât function when people intend to use force as a means to bring about their idea of justice. Itâs even worse when they are excused after their behavior.
This is the reason to unify and mobilize the disparate Democrats, Independents and anti-Trump Republicans. The use of force on Jan. 6 and the possibility of using more force this year to get an unconvicted Trump back in the White House and keep him there, isnât democracy. This is the time and place to stop Trump’s rolling Insurrection.
Biden recognizes this and kicked off his 2024 political campaign in Valley Forge, PA on Friday. Biden sees Valley Forge as a symbolic connection between his efforts to “heal the soul of the nation” and George Washington’s undaunted spirit during the American Revolution hundreds of years ago.
His second speech will be at Mother Emanuel AME Church in Charleston, SC, where white supremacist Dylann Roof murdered nine Black parishioners as they welcomed him to pray with them in June 2015.
âSomething that stays with me, that few commentators ever mention: Trump came down his gilded escalator to declare his presidential candidacy just one day before the Charleston massacre. It would probably be too daring for Biden to make that connection, but I always do.â
Bidenâs campaign theme of âpreserving democracyâ isnât compelling, or âmade for TV.â But it is precisely what the nation needs as it stares into the abyss of a potential second Trump term as president. Like Biden, Trump has made promises. Heâs promised his followers that, if re-elected, âI will be your retribution.â
As with Biden, we should take Trump at his word: He will exact retribution and act as a dictator on day one of his second term. These competing promises of Trump and Biden tell us all we need to know about the choice we face in the 2024 election.
On to our first Saturday Soother of 2024. Here at the mansion of Wrong, weâre ready for tonightâs snow. Weâre also looking forward to next weekend when we will have all of our 12 grandchildren here for a belated Christmas party. Since they span the ages of 15-32 and are spread all over the country, this is the first time ever that they will be in the same space.
Itâs something that Wrongo and Ms. Right are looking forward to with great anticipation.
Today, letâs try to forget the dread and the likelihood that Trump will never be convicted for his crimes of Insurrection. Instead, grab a comfy chair by a window where, if you are in the Northeast, you can watch the falling snow.
Now watch and listen to the London Gay Symphony Orchestra play âLa Calindaâ from Deliusâ third opera âKoangaâ, written between 1896 and 1897. Koanga is reputed to be the first opera in the European tradition to base much of its melodic material on African-American music. Delius spent time as a young man working in Florida. Here is âLa Calindaâ conducted by Christopher Braime at St. Giles Cripplegate in February 2017:
Manhattan Beach Pier, CA – December 31, 2023 photo by Michael Franich
Welcome to Wrongoâs first column of 2024. Letâs dispense with the reviews of last year and the forecasts of this year. Letâs try to describe what weâre all feeling as we say so long to the presidential campaign of 2023, and welcome in the presidential campaign of 2024.
Whatâs the overwhelming feeling that comes to mind for Americans when thinking about the upcoming presidential election? Dread, according to a Yahoo News/YouGov poll:
âThe survey of 1,636 US adults…offered respondents seven emotions â three positive, three negative, one neutral â and asked them to select any and all that reflect their attitude toward the 2024 campaign.
Dread, the most negative option, topped the list (41%), followed by exhaustion (34%), optimism (25%), depression (21%), indifference (17%), excitement (15%) and delight (5%).â
Hereâs the relevant chart:
More:
âIn total, a majority of Americans (56%) chose at least one of the three negative feelings (dread, exhaustion or depression), while less than a third (32%) picked at least one of the three positive feelings (optimism, excitement or delight).â
Wrongo test marketed the idea that âdreadâ was the watchword for 2024 at a New Yearâs breakfast with people who span the political spectrum. They universally hated it, but after a short discussion felt it was arguably, the dominant feeling that they had about what will/might happen in 2024.
âWe are feeling an acute sense of loss….But what do you call the feeling of watching your society being taken over by fanatics, monsters, and lunatics? How about the feeling of watching democracy crash and burnâremember, itâs declining by the stunning rate of about 10% a decade, putting its extinction within our lifetimes.â
Psychology Today gives us a frame to think about dread in their 2023 article, âHow to Overcome the Sinking Feeling of Dreadâ: (emphasis by Wrongo)
âA sense of dread may be due to an abstractly internalized experience of external volatility called âdisembeddingâ….This phenomenon refers to our ability to interact with one another without having to make face-to-face contact. The result is an overabundance of information that comes our way. It becomes abstracted and metaphorically slips through the fingers of our minds in trying to grasp what it is. With a few clicks through an Instagram feed, scrolling through Twitter, or even just opening your web browser to search for something, your brain becomes a dartboard for world news.â
More:
âWhen one experiences this, there are often repeated attempts to secure a firm base. People will reassert their values as moral absolutes, declare other groups as lacking in value, draw distinct lines of virtue and vice, be rigid rather than flexible in their judgements, and punitive and excluding rather than permeable and assimilative….Another consequence of disembedding is the possibility of scapegoating: the underclass, racial minorities, new-age travelers, addicts, people with unusual behaviors, and other vulnerable social groups risk being singled out and demonized as the source of societyâs problems.â
Dread makes us less tolerant of differences, and as a result, we punish them. This is the emotional backdrop for 2024, and the road ahead looks murky as hell. And facts increasingly donât matter, since whichever side posits a fact, the other has a prepared rebuttal that says the source (even if its official statistics) are misleading if not outright lies.
The NYTâs Krugman notes that overall, the countryâs in pretty good shape. The challenge is that people so far continue to blame Biden for the chaos and ugliness that Trump and his cult are creating: (brackets by Wrongo)
âThe big question…was whether America would ever fully recover from that shock. In 2023 we got the answer: yes. Our economy and society have, in fact, healed remarkably well. The big remaining question is when, if ever, the public will be ready to accept the good news….Americaâs resilience in the face of the pandemic shock has been remarkable, [but] so has the pessimism of the public.â
The big question going forward is whether the grim narratives will prevail over our relatively sunny reality when we get to the 2024 election. Unfortunately, we are bathing in the hideous cultural nastiness caused by the Republican Right and itâs spread despair throughout the country.
Overcoming that mood (and the dread people feel) isnât going to be easy, but disaster is certain if you give up. Individually, we each can do more than we think we can to keep America in good hands.
Start by no longer buying into the bullshit spewed by the mainstream media, in particular, the NYT. Their both sides coverage of Trumpâs crooked behavior demonstrates their inability to let us know how real his threat is to the public.
The rest of the corporate mediaâs coverage is the same, with a few exceptions. Donât overlook outlets abroad which had good reputations for thorough and unbiased reporting. In the age of the internet with translation capability at your fingertips, itâs not absurd to look outside of the US news rut for different perspectives.
As long as the GOP can paint the Democrats as the bigger enemy, Independent and anti-Trump Republican voters have an out; they can justify staying on the sidelines. The mainstream media’s complicit role in broadcasting the GOP strategy canât be overstated. And the Democratic Party leadership’s long-term paralysis in the face of this simple equation is one reason why weâre in the situation we are in now.
Stop ascribing superpowers to the GOP. The Republican Party is a hot mess.
No matter what you read, act! Make a plan and act. It can be surprisingly easy to become a thought leader on the local level. Inside both Parties, the leaders are the people who show up and do the work. Thatâs it, thatâs all it takes to begin making change happen. Show up, do the work.
Weâre heading into what will be the toughest part of an existential fight for this democracy. Itâs going to be an ugly, messy show, one that is certain to add to those feelings of dread. Plan on it and then show up to do the work it will take to beat back the fascists.
Think about the toll Americans will endure in 2024. How many women will die of complications from a pregnancy they couldnât end? How many trans persons will give up because they canât live as human beings with autonomy over their bodies? How many persons will die from Covid this coming year because of right-wing propaganda supported by elected GOP officials? How many futures will be shortened because children may not get the food, health care, or education they need?
How many families will be split up because they couldnât find shelter?
Our message when weâre doing the work has to be about unity. Itâs clear right now that Democrats are splintering in all directions. Some donât want Biden because heâs pro-Israel. Young people find Biden to be too old. Some feel heâs too middle-of-the-road. We all need to remember American novelist Rebecca Solnitâs mantra:
Dory with lights, Ogunquit, ME – December 2023 photo by Eric Storm Photo
This is the last Wrongologist column of the year because tomorrow is the first day of 2024. Cartoon lovers shouldnât worry, there are a few cartoons at the end of this post. We will spend tomorrow attending a New Yearâs Day concert of Baroque music at the auditorium of a local prep school.
You will see plenty of year-end reviews of what happened in 2023, most of which will concern what went wrong. So no need to recapitulate the bad news here. Despite all that, 2023 also was a year with significant positive developments:
We engineered a soft landing for the economy, meaning that we didn’t have a recession and the widespread unemployment that would have come with it.
The US will end 2023 with one of the largest annual drops in homicides on record (-12.8%), according to AH Datalytics
In 2022, the insured share of the US population reached 92% (a historic high). Private health insurance enrollment increased by 9 million individuals and Medicaid enrollment increased by 6.1 million individuals.
US healthcare spending as a percentage of the GDP was lower last year than it was 6 years earlier. Health care spending grew by 4.1%, and the share of GDP devoted to health care fell to 17.3%, lower than the 18.2% share in 2021.
The WHO approved a new and affordable malaria vaccine. More than 600,000 people died of malaria in 2021, with children under 5 years representing 80% of malaria deaths in Africa. The US still reports about 2,000 malaria cases each year. The majority of them are contracted abroad.
Two sickle cell disease treatments gained FDA approval. Sickle cell is a debilitating condition that affects around 100,000 Americans, most of them Black. One is the first medical treatment to be based on the gene-editing tool CRISPR.
Sweden and Finland joined NATO. Germany is no longer dependent on Russian oil and natural gas.
The Webb Telescope made huge advancements in human understanding of the Cosmos.
And finally, as Wrongo has written elsewhere, today, despite his best efforts, he turns 80!
The Christmas season brought our family one piece of arguably bad news. On both sides, we are a blended family. That means the holiday season can bring quality time with extended family members who do not share your political and/or cultural sensibilities. But no worries, itâs just one day, except when it isnât.
One of our kids while participating in a âYankee Swapâ of gifts, wound up with an autographed copy of Ted Cruzâs book, âUnwoke: How to Defeat Cultural Marxism in Americaâ. Imagine having to act excited with this as your New Yearâs read. As expected, there are many 5-star reviews on Amazon, but Wrongo wants to quote this one:
âA most difficult book to read. Almost never do I feel inclined to post a book review on a public site, yet I am compelled to do so here. Practically everything Cruz expresses outrage over are previously debunked, decades old tropes.â
Your mileage may vary. Wrongo OTOH, participated in a different Yankee Swap, receiving a grandsonâs â75 songs that changed my lifeâ along with a written description of each. A fantastic gift!
Here are the cartoons of the week. Gov. Haley canât figure out the word puzzle:
The Elephant resolves to begin this year like last year:
The new baby doesnât look so cuddly:
Enjoy the peace and quiet of this New Yearâs holiday. Thereâs plenty of time to be nervous about the other 364 days.
Weâve enjoyed a few days away from the news, seeing kids and grandkids while eating non-stop and playing games in the living room. But itâs nearing the time when we will need to refocus on the state of our country. These are overstimulated times, as the abuse of all caps and exclamation-points around the internet shows us.
Hereâs one finding from a poll by YouGov  that was performed between December 11th and 14th of a nationwide sample of 1,000 adult citizens, with a 4± point margin of error:
The bad vibes were overwhelmingly felt by Republicans, 66% of whom felt that 2023 was âOne of the worst years in American historyâ even though it clearly was not. Â From the NYT:
âThe âvibeâ is bad, voters canât see that the economy is good.â
The economy is really good. Unemployment is near its historic low. Inflation is nearly controlled. While the Fed raised interest rates rapidly to slow economic growth, we are now likely to experience a soft landing of the economy. Back in December 2022, the Financial Times (paywalled) published a survey that showed 85% of economists were projecting a recession in 2023. But it didnât happen, largely due to US fiscal policy (adding money to peopleâs pockets) overriding the impact of the Fedâs desire for a restrictive monetary policy.
Maybe people believing that the economy was bad shouldnât be surprising. FOX, along with other media have been telling people non-stop that the economy is a problem (and using inflation as the proof). With few exceptions the Democrats havenât responded clearly. Biden tried to brand the economy as Bidenomics, but neither he nor the Democrats mention every day how great the economy is.
Without hearing from the Dems, most Americans hear that the economy is bad and nobody contradicts that. So one side uses proper messaging techniques and the other side wonders why theyâre unpopular. This is true for the Dems on issue after issue.
Heading into 2024, Wrongo is putting on his armor, because next yearâs not going to be easy. In fact itâs going to be a shitshow. We know that weâre having an absolutely make or break election for president. Control of Congress is on the line as well. Itâs now becoming clear that unless thereâs a legal miracle, Trump will not be judged guilty in any of his pending criminal cases prior to the election.
That means itâs up to us voters to get the 2024 election right: Overwhelming turnout, hammering the message locally and not simply relying on the national Democratic apparatus to get things done for us at the local level. If we fail, itâs hard to see how America recovers fast enough to keep the entire world from turning to chaos with a Trump win.
âIf I could weigh one magic wand and accomplish one simple change in the minds of anti-Trump voters, Republican or Democrat, it would be this: stop believing in miracles. Miracles are in short supply….Itâs taken me a while to overcome the hope that something derails Trump….But nothing does. He is a protean force in American culture now, seemingly beyond all sanction. He is not going to jail….He wonât be disqualified from the ballot in any states when the Supreme Court is done. Trump is going to be the nominee; he is going to lure the media into his narrative frame once again.â
More:
âThe miracles in politics are the ones we make. They come from work planning, preparation, organization, and focus. Nothing will set the Democratic Party back further and faster than the fantasy that somehow the law or fate will take Trump out of their way. This one will take a lot of work at every return, and there are no shortcuts.â
The DNC sends us their mealy-mouthed-please-send-money-now emails every week. They must up their game if they hope to win. Also, Wrongo canât understand why so many Americans can’t see the handwriting on the wall. This isnât a time for third parties, it isnât a time to âsend a messageâ to Biden.
The best defense for our democracy is to speak out and encourage everyone we know to vote.
We close this year with our final seasonal Christmas musical presentation, selections from the 2023 Christmas Carols Concert at Londonâs Royal Albert Hall. This is snippets of the whole carols, which may disappoint some:
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanzaa, and Happy Festivus! Wrongo and Ms. Right wish you a Christmas Day full of love, family, friends, plus all the comfort and joy imaginable.
Hereâs a superficial, stupid and still, a seasonal card for all:
And a performance of âSilent Nightâ by Enya, sung in Gaelic:
Santa Christmas gondola regatta in Venice â December 2023 photo by Manuel Silvestri
Happy Saturday! Wrongo loves it when the days begin to get longer, if only by a fraction. Itâs a hopeful sign of the return to more daylight and eventually, spring and summer. This may (or may not) be the last column until the New Year. If it is, Wrongo wants to end with some positive notes.
First, The Economistis out with its annual âCountry of the Yearâ award. This year, it highlights the move back to moderation from conservative governments in three countries.
First, Brazil which swore in a center-left president, Luiz InĂĄcio Lula da Silva, after four years of mendacious populism under Jair Bolsonaro:
â…who spread divisive conspiracy theories, coddled trigger-happy cops, supported rainforest-torching farmers, refused to accept electoral defeat and encouraged his devotees to attempt an insurrection.â
The new administration quickly restored normalityâand reduced the pace of deforestation in the Amazon by nearly 50%. But since Lula likes Putin, Brazil didnât get the award.
Second, Poland had a remarkable 2023: its economy withstood the shock of the war next door; it continued to host nearly 1 million Ukrainian refugees. It raised its defense spending to above 3% of GDP. The countryâs biggest problem has been the dominance of the populist-nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which has run the government for the past eight years, eroding the independence of the courts, stuffing state media with lackeys and nurturing crony capitalism:
âIn October voters dumped PiS in favor of an array of opposition parties. It is early days for a new coalition government, led by Donald Tusk, a veteran centrist, but if it does a good job of mending the damage PiS did to democratic institutions, Poland will be a strong candidate for our prize next year.â
But Greece won the prize. We all remember a few years ago when Greece was the economic basket case of Europe. Incomes had plunged, the social contract was fraying and extremist parties on the left and right were popular. The government turned to China and sold its main port, Piraeus, to a Chinese firm:
âBut after years of painful restructuring, Greece topped our annual ranking of rich-world economies in 2023. Its center-right government was re-elected in June. Its foreign policy is pro-America, pro-EU and wary of Russia. Greece shows that from the verge of collapse it is possible to enact tough, sensible economic reforms, rebuild the social contract, exhibit restrained patriotismâand still win elections.â
The Economist closes with the thought that nearly half the world is due to vote in new governments in 2024, so democracy isnât just on the line in America. Itâs on the line everywhere.
Second, a piece of good domestic news. Charles Gaba at ACA Signups reports that, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):
âIn 2022, the insured share of the population reached 92% (a historic high). Private health insurance enrollment increased by 2.9 million individuals and Medicaid enrollment increased by 6.1 million individuals.â
Another stunner from CMS: US healthcare spending as a percentage of the GDP was lower last year than it was 6 years earlier. More detail:
âWith a lower rate of health care spending growth of 4.1% in 2022, the share of GDP devoted to health care fell to 17.3% in 2022, lower than both the 18.2% share in 2021 and the highest share in the history of the National Health Expenditure Accounts of 19.5% in 2020. During 2016-19 the average share was 17.5%.â
Thatâs all good news. Around the global headquarters of the Wrongologist, weâre starting to look toward next year. And even if it seems the news canât get worse, it probably will. Think about Trump on trial, epic Supreme Court decisions, ongoing foreign policy crises and the most important election of at least Wrongoâs life.
2024 will be a long year thatâs going to require emotional and intellectual strength to avoid despair when the media continues covering this election as they have been. It will be a lot to handle.
Hereâs Wrongoâs wish that you find some comfort and joy over the next week. And please keep showing up around here in the New Year. Wrongo promises to keep trying to give you perspectives that hopefully make some sense of the world.
