The Wrongologist – Page 228 – Geopolitics, Power and Political Economy

Sunday Cartoon Blogging – November 16, 2014

The Wrongologist is reading Jay Winik’s April 1865: The Month That Saved America. It is about the end game in our Civil War. Winik describes how Lincoln, Lee and Grant actively decided to save America from the terrible fate that has befallen other countries afflicted by Civil War – countries like Bosnia, or Northern Ireland. Winik also reminds us of how old and durable the political split in this country has been.

And how breathtakingly vehement. And our current bitterness is consistent with our past bitterness. The names change, the parties re-configure, the particular issues in contention vary. And if you think you’ve seen the worst of it, well, read some history. They say it tends to repeat:

They say you have a mandate:

Keystone Pipeline looks like it will pass:

We either did, or did not, get an emissions deal with China:

Throughout his campaign for reelection, Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell said it would be foolhardy to raise carbon dioxide emissions standards on American companies as long as China was sticking to business as usual. But now that China has agreed to take a big step away from using coal as its primary fuel source, McConnell still wants to fight implementation of the new agreement.

Then there is the collegiality shown by Mr. Boehner:

Who will work with Obama first?

Friday Music Break -November 13, 2014

Plenty of people consider YouTube the best music site on the Web. It is featured here on most Fridays.

Yesterday, the NYT reported that YouTube unveiled YouTube Music Key, a fee-based service that will include higher-quality audio for most songs and the option of paying $8 a month for extra features, chief among them removing YouTube’s ubiquitous ads. The Wrongologist has no strong objection to paying for YouTube, as long as they don’t mess up what they already have. So here is a wish for MUSIC KEY: Please don’t screw YouTube up. That’s not asking too much, is it?

Yesterday was also Neil Percival Young’s 69th birthday. Young is an artist who has always been blatantly political, from “Ohio (Four Dead in Ohio)” recorded in 1970, to “Who’s Gonna Stand Up (and Save the Earth)” published last month.

The key to any Neil Young music is the reedy high tenor and the hammering guitar. When you can get those two with politics, so much the better. Here is his “Rockin’ In the Free World” from 1989:

“Rockin in the Free World” was written to criticize the George Bush I presidency. It is regularly covered by Pearl Jam, often in their encores. It hit #2 on the US rock charts in 1990.

Finally, “Hey, Hey, My, My”, from his “Rust Never Sleeps” album, recorded in 1991. The line from the song, “it’s better to burn out than to fade away,” became infamous after it was quoted by Kurt Cobain in his suicide note. Young later dedicated his 1994 album “Sleeps with Angels” to Cobain. Here is “Hey, Hey, My My“:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0O1v_7T6p8U

In total, NY has 40 albums. If and/or when the Great Pumpkin welcomes Wrongo to Pearly Gates and asks: “Out of all the recording artists who ever lived, who did you listen to the most throughout every decade of your life?”

The answer will be: “Neil Young.”

Kerry’s Hair Seems Unconvinced

From the “One picture worth a thousand words” Department:

[State Department photo/ Public Domain]
A shopkeeper sells an oil lamp to Secretary of State John Kerry during Mr. Kerry’s visit to the Muttrah Souk in Muscat, Oman on November 10th, during a break in the stalled nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Kerry said:

Sometimes one has to resort to unusual measures to solve all these difficult problems.

The guy in the souk, apparently named Ali Baba (of course!) told Kerry:

This genie lamp will magically enlighten the world about your wisdom.

Really? Enlightenment about John F. Kerry’s wisdom? It is difficult to resist commenting. Is Kerry purchasing tchotchke to put in one of his many homes? Is he onboarding a new foreign policy tool for his team? Possibly, Kerry is asking, “what can you tell me about its provenance”? Maybe he’s thinking that it would be cool to bring an exotic, three wish device to his next Skull and Bones drink up, and that he could summon a young woman from the lamp.

Is Kerry hoping that genie power is stronger than nuclear power?

Another way to view it is that the merchant is trying to close the deal by reassuring Kerry that the magic genie lamp will definitely grant the US Secretary of State three wishes. After all, it was made in China.

Maybe Kerry thinks he can use the lamp to:

1. Make Assad disappear
2. Make Putin disappear
3. Make Xi Jinping disappear

All Departments of State want a secret diplomatic weapon. Sadly, ours is not John Kerry.

And it probably isn’t a Genie Lamp purchased at the Souk

What Have We Learned from 13 years of War?

“The Americans have all the clocks…but we have all the time” – Taliban Commander

On Veteran’s Day, the Wrongologist asked himself whether, after the last 13 years of war in the Middle East, conducted by four presidents, with the loss of many thousands of American lives, and the expenditure of trillions of dollars, what have we learned?

Maybe, not enough. So, here are three more credits in the Big Picture:

Syria became the 14th country in the Islamic world that US forces have invaded or occupied or bombed, and in which American soldiers have killed or been killed. And that’s just since 1980. Here’s the list:

Iran (1980, 1987-1988), Libya (1981, 1986, 1989, 2011), Lebanon (1983), Kuwait (1991), Iraq (1991-2011, 2014), Somalia (1992-1993, 2007-present), Bosnia (1995), Saudi Arabia (1991, 1996), Afghanistan (1998, 2001-present), Sudan (1998), Kosovo (1999), Yemen (2000, 2002-present), Pakistan (2004-present) and now, Syria.

We need to figure out what we have learned from all of this intervention in the Middle East. We need to total up what we have accomplished in the Middle East, and what a sustained war footing has cost us as a nation. Our veterans and the American people deserve an accounting.

On Tuesday, the NYT had an op-ed by Daniel Bolger, a retired General who fought in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Bolger wants us to stop saying that the surge won the Iraq War:

The surge in Iraq did not “win” anything. It bought time. It allowed us to kill some more bad guys and feel better about ourselves. But in the end, shackled to a corrupt, sectarian government in Baghdad…the surge just forestalled today’s stalemate. Like a handful of aspirin gobbled by a fevered patient, the surge cooled the symptoms. But the underlying disease didn’t go away. The remnants of Al Qaeda in Iraq and the Sunni insurgents we battled for more than eight years simply re-emerged this year as the Islamic State, also known as ISIS.

Please read Bolger’s book, “Why We Lost – A General’s Inside Account of the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars”. Its first paragraph:

I am a United Sates Army general, and I lost the Global War on Terrorism. It’s like Alcoholics Anonymous; step one is admitting you have a problem. Well, I have a problem. So do my peers. And thanks to our problem, now all of America has a problem, to wit: two lost campaigns and a war gone awry.

Americans have the problem, our politicians have the problem, and so do our generals. We think that we can: i) bring stability wherever it is needed, or ii) remake parts of the world in our image. Well, we can’t. And the world doesn’t want us to even try to do it. America has many fine attributes and things to be proud of, but there is a naïve and possibly purposefully ignorant side of the American psyche that gets us into trouble. It is the myth of American exceptionalism. It bleeds into our politics, our popular culture, and much of our military. You only need to look at Tuesday’s Concert for Valor to see how deeply we are infected by the Exceptionalism myth.

We need a debate. What are we doing in the Middle East? Andrew Bacevich, a professor and retired army colonel has said: (emphasis by the Wrongologist)

You know, we live in a country where if you want to go bomb somebody, there’s remarkably little discussion about how much it might cost, even though the costs almost inevitably end up being orders of magnitude larger than anybody projected at the outcome. But when you have a discussion about whether or not we can assist people who are suffering, then suddenly we come very, you know, cost-conscious…

Has the Middle East become more or less stable? Has it become more democratic? Is there less anti-Americanism? The answer is “no” to all. So, it is time to recognize that US military intervention in the Middle East has failed us as a primary means of US policy.

Mr. Obama’s bet — the same bet made by each of his predecessors, going back to Carter — is that the application of US military power would solve the dilemma of the moment. All of them were wrong, and so is he. Without a real debate, when the 14th campaign runs its course, a 15th will be waiting.

One thing worthy of debate is whether we should return to a universal service based on a mandatory draft. Richard Nixon replaced the draft with a lottery. That morphed into our all-volunteer armed forces. And thus, the ideal of the citizen/soldier was another casualty of the Vietnam War.

Non-professional soldiers would assure that we debate what we are doing militarily. It would engage the public in our foreign military strategy, unlike their current engagement with an all-professional military.

Will Congress ever agree to a commission to examine our grand strategy in the Middle East? Not without real civilian pressure. Who in their wildest imagination, after Vietnam, would have thought we would commit to a military strategy and a foreign policy that produced the debacle we now have in the Middle East?

Then again, how long will Sisyphus continue to roll that rock up War Mountain?

How Do You Honor The Troops?

Veteran’s Day came into being on June 1, 1954 as a date to honor all who served in the US Military. Memorial Day is a day for remembering those who died while serving in the Military. We celebrate Veteran’s Day on the date of the WWI armistice, the 11th day of the 11th month in 1918 that ended the fighting. That was exactly 96 years ago today.

Veteran’s Day brings the reflexive, “thank you for your service” from everyone in America. The two things the average person could do to honor the service of veterans are to vote, and to make sure that Vets get the health care they need when they come home. Sadly, we do neither:

People: If you say that veterans died to protect our freedoms, you dishonor them when you don’t vote!

The Census Bureau reports that in 2013, 3.6 million veterans had a service-connected disability, with 957,504 having a rating of 70% or higher. Severity of disability is scaled from 0 to 100%, and eligibility for compensation depends on the rating. Let’s also remember that Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is at epidemic levels among Vets, as is suicide. According to a study by the Department of Veterans Affairs, 22 Vets a day commit suicide. You all know we continue to do a terrible job taking care of returning veterans, and you should be finding out why, and pushing your congressperson to finally fix it!

Veterans rapidly are becoming a two-age group cohort. The Census Bureau report shows that most Vets are getting older, with 47% over the age of 65. Tom Dispatch reports that today’s military is made up largely of Millennials. In fact, with nearly 43% of the active duty force age 25 or younger, and roughly 66% of it 30 or under, it’s one of the most Millennial-centric organizations around.

How the “entitled” generation will perform as our protectors is still up in the air. An NIH study determined that people in their 20s have Narcissistic Personality Disorder at a rate three times that of people 65 or older and a recent survey by Reason and pollster Rupe found that 18-24 year olds are indeed in favor of participation trophies while older Americans overwhelmingly favor winners-only prizes.

Millennials may yet surprise even a cantankerous coot like the Wrongologist. Time will tell.

Here are two terrific, but very under-appreciated tunes for Veteran’s Day. We start with “1968” by Dave Alvin.

Sample lyric:
And tonight in this barroom he’s easin’ his pain
He’s thinkin’ of someone, but he won’t say the name
Folks say he’s a hero, but he’ll tell you he ain’t
He left a hero in the jungle, back in 1968.

Here is another almost unknown song “I’m Writing in the Margins” from the album of the same name by John Gorka about a soldier in Afghanistan:

Sample lyric:
I am writing in the margins
Notes to me and you
Cause the pages are all filled
With new orders coming through

There are not a lot of rich boys
Wearing DCUs and sand
But I’ll think about that later
When I make it home again

(DCUs are Desert Camouflage Uniforms)

There is a great story told about a T-Shirt worn long after the war by a Vietnam Vet. On it was the outline of a map of Vietnam, superimposed with:

Participant, Southeast Asia War Games, 1961-1975: Second Place.

Huge thanks to the guys/gals who follow orders, who do really hard and dangerous things and who too often pay a high price for doing so.

Sources:

Monday Wake Up Call –November 10, 2014

OK, we just had our bi-annual vote to rearrange the deck chairs, and boy, people were angry. But what good will come of it is difficult to guess. This we do know: According to a CNN exit poll, 8 in 10 Americans disapprove of how Congress has been handling its job, while almost 6 in 10 are displeased with President Obama; 44% have a positive view of Democrats; 40% have a positive view of Republicans.

So, Americans elected the party they like the least to run the part of the government they trust the least.

There’s a lot of discussion of how and why Democrats did so badly, and much of it focuses on messaging. The litany of excuses is long: Democratic candidates were arrogant. The White House failed to transfer money, or stump effectively. The GOP caught up in the technology race, or the GOP recruited excellent, disciplined candidates.

Democrats ran on everything but?policy. Did the Democrats run the government well? Are the lives of voters better? Are Democrats as a political party credible when they say they’ll do something?

Their message was based on a group of poll-tested ideas that they thought would appeal to mainstream voters. But, the message, “vote for us, we’re not right-wing fanatics” didn’t cause the majority of us to turn out for the election. In fact, turn out was the lowest it had been in 40 years.

Liberal ballot propositions won in various parts of the country last Tuesday, from marijuana products (like https://www.cheapbudcanada.com/marijuana-products/vape-pens/fatboyz-disposable-thc-vape-pen/, for instance) to the minimum wage. Democrats didn’t. That should tell the Democratic Party something. Liberal policies can resonate with the public. It would be nice if there was a party which could embody and fight for those ideas.

So what would be a winning message? The economy. There’s infrastructure work to be done. The private sector could hire people to do it with government money. There are hungry people who need to be fed, and homeless people to be housed. And, ending our adventures in the Middle East would improve our lives.

“Vote for us, we bring peace, prosperity, and weed” – that slogan just might get you somewhere.

Keeping with the spirit of a new politics, here is your wake-up tune of the day. It is “Uprising” by Muse, released in 2009. So get upright and rock out:

Sample lyrics:
Rise up and take the power back
It’s time the fat cats had a heart attack
You know that their time’s coming to an end
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend
(so come on)

They will not force us
They will stop degrading us
They will not control us
We will be victorious

Here is your breakfast buffet of linkage:
Connecticut’s Democratic Governor was reelected, running as a progressive: It was close, but Dan Molloy won bigger this time against the same conservative opponent.

A case for treating health care and hospitals as utilities: Conservatives have won the battle to eliminate much of the government control in quasi-monopolistic markets like telecom and electric power. You be the judge about whether you are better off with de-regulation of those industries. Health care is a de facto monopoly, should it be treated as a utility?

Wikipedia is the sixth most popular website in the world, with 22.5 million contributors and 736 million edits in English. It’s as if the entire population of Australia (23.6 million) each contributed 30 times. 36 people run Wikipedia. Who are they?

Transparent solar panels could make solar power more competitive. CSEM, a Swiss technology company, have developed solar panels that you can see through and have no visible connections, which gives architects a lot of room to incorporate solar power into the walls of buildings without having to give up any aesthetic goals.

How often should you get dental x-rays? Dentists differ.

Many people believe that medical malpractice reform is the key to cutting cost from the health care system. But evidence shows that belief could be mistaken. However, if you have been affected by medical negligence, you’ll want to consider your options. Some people contact the hospital directly to complain about the medical professional who failed to take suitable care of them. A better alternative to this idea is actually to contact a personal injury lincoln ne service, or a lawyer more local to you. Seeking legal assistance can help you to strengthen your claim against the staff member in question.

The US currently has 30 declared presidential states of emergency. The University of Michigan explains why this is a bad idea. The National Emergencies Act requires the Congress to vote every six months on whether a declared national emergency should continue, Congress has done this only once in the nearly 40-year history of the Act.

Protect us from the media: CNBC’s “Squawk Box” anchor (Joe Kernan) shows complete ignorance of Ireland while talking to Martin Shanahan, head of the Irish Industrial Development Authority. Then he insists he is correct:
CNBC: You have pounds anyway don’t you still?
Shanahan: We have Euros.
CNBC: You have Euros in Ireland?
Shanahan: Yes. We have euros, which is eh…
CNBC: Why do you have euros in Ireland?
Shanahan: A strong recovery….
CNBC: Why do you use euros in Ireland?
Shanahan: Why wouldn’t we have euros in Ireland?
CNBC: Huh. I’d use the pound.
Shanahan: We use euro.
CNBC: What about Scotland? I was using Scottish eh…
Shanahan: They use Sterling.
CNBC: They use Sterling?
Shanahan: They use Sterling. But we use euro.
CNBC: What? Why would you do that?

And some of you use CNBC for investment advice!

Here is your thought for the week. It is from George Orwell:

The great enemy of clear language is insincerity. When there is a gap between one’s real and one’s declared aims, one turns as it were instinctively to the long words and exhausted idioms, like a cuttlefish squirting out ink. In our time, political speech and writing are largely the defense of the indefensible.

Thus political language has to consist largely of euphemisms, question-begging and sheer cloudy vagueness. Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable…

Sunday Cartoon Blogging – November 9, 2014

From the “Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it” department, there is this quote from Harry S Truman:

If it’s a choice between a genuine Republican, and a Republican in Democratic clothing, the people will choose the genuine article, every time; that is, they will take a Republican before they will a phony Democrat, and I don’t want any phony Democratic candidates in this campaign.

Steve Israel, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Robert Bennett (the Democratic brain trust behind the Dem’s 2014 performance), clearly didn’t learn much during their history lessons.

We all have different values and interests, so it is natural that we disagree on public policy. Open and honest debate would be healthy, but our politics these days is mostly negative, destructive and often dishonest. Speaker Boehner warned the President not to “poison the well” of goodwill by taking action on immigration. In almost the next sentence, the Speaker himself poisoned the well by saying the House will vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act (a vote that will go nowhere). Regardless of what you think about either issue, the Speaker’s words ended any shot at constructive debate. Mr. Boehner isn’t stupid. While being hypocritical is bad policy, it is often good politics.

This is what happens when you vote based on political ads:

Along with the conservative wave, voters also went in another direction:

We live in a time when we require drugs, super-heroes, and religion to help escape the realities that we have created for ourselves. Now is not the time to drift off.

Despite their intent, those that didn’t go to vote also voted:

Be afraid, be very afraid:

Finally, let’s remember Tom Magliozzi, co-host with his brother Ray, of NPR’s Car Talk, who died this week from complications of Alzheimer’s disease. Car Talk was a temple of funny advice, mostly about our problems with cars. But they often got into other areas. The Wrongologist’s favorite was their philosophical deliberation on the question:

Do two people who don’t know what they are talking about know more, or less, than one person who doesn’t know what they are talking about?

With this discussion, they illuminated a key question about our politics. The boys easily addressed the issue: two people who know nothing actually know less than one person.

If you think about ANY two politicians, you know they were correct.

Friday Music Break – November 7, 2014

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, they deserve to get it good and hard.” –H. L. Mencken

What has changed in our recent elections is that most American people live lives of barely suppressed ill-feeling. Americans have become hoarders of grudges, with voters believing that current politics bring only a sense of outrage, a feeling of being pushed aside, and made to feel small, or diminished.

They see those in power not as helpers and protectors of our people and our traditions, but as predators, out for whatever they can get. Our politicians see their own ideas for change as blessed, and the ideas of their opponents as damned.

Elections should attempt to bring out the best, not the worse in ordinary people. But in 21st century elections, this superordinate goal exceeds the people’s grasp.

Our political process has devolved. We have a deterioration of our public conscience, a smothering of community spirit when it comes to the vital issues of public life. Great ends are to be achieved by tawdry, underhanded or inadequate means.

We now try to reach political heaven mostly using the methods of hell.

Songs for today’s music break

We start with a song tribute to a guy that doesn’t let democracy mess with his plans. Its “Go Hard Like Vladimir Putin” by A.M.G. You had to expect there would be a Putin rap, and it comes straight outta Moscow by two black guys who emigrated from Africa. K. King, is from Zimbabwe via London, while Beni Maniaci is from Kenya. Both moved to Russia in the early 2000s to study medicine in Volgograd. It isn’t clear if they are still in medicine after this became a huge hit in Russia, but they say they are booked solid through December:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDIlQ3_lsKE

Difficult to imagine someone saying “Go Hard Like Barack Obama” or, “Go Hard Like Mitch McConnell”.

Next, a song that hopes democracy will solve the world’s problems. It is Jackson Browne who has a new album and a new song both entitled “Standing In The Breach“:

Sample lyrics:

You don’t know why,
But you still try for the world you wish to see.
You don’t know how, it will happen now after all that’s come undone.
But you know the change that the world needs now, is there in everyone.

Regarding our democracy, the Wrongologist simply doesn’t get it: Those most at risk of disenfranchisement, more regressive taxation, greater risk of losing their jobs, safety net and reproductive freedom, can’t be bothered to go to the polls.

Meanwhile, working class whites vote against the ACA—the best thing US government has done for working class people since Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid.

What a country.

Democrats Got What They Deserved

“You can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you might find, you get what you need” – Rolling Stones

Democrats seriously suck at politics. On the other hand, you can fight the opposition, you can fight the media, you can fight the money, and you can fight vote suppression.

But, idiocy is damned near invincible. And sadly, idiocy is pretty well distributed across party lines:

After a massacre on par with the catastrophic election of 2010, 2014 proves that you hold elections with the citizens you have. Democrats didn’t accept that reality. As the Wrongologist said on November 3rd:

The Democrats have no closing argument. The great tragedy of the Democrats is that they still believe politics is about competing sermons.

They ran to the right, distanced themselves from the Obama agenda, and hoped that their ground game would bring them victory. It didn’t, and it’s not going to be easy to get the same quality of GOTV effort that Obama got in 2008 and 2012, after coming up so short this time. If you look at the political map, what you see is red and purple counties in suburban and rural areas that taken together, in low turn-out elections, are now equal to anything that solidly blue urban areas can muster. This problem prevents any Democratic effort to undermine the ability of Republicans to successfully gerrymander secure districts.

Are establishment Democrats who are now on their way to their lucrative post-political careers, going to have the will to fight for anything before they go? Beltway Democrats have a lot to answer for. And one question is whether the Democratic Party is more than a regional party that can win in only a few coastal states. Their political infrastructure has now mostly gone to seed. Here is a modest program for improvement:

1. The old guard leaders must go. The Democratic caucus should throw out the entire leadership team and start over. Why would any candidate want to brand themselves with the organizations run by Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Debbie Wassermann-Schultz, Steve Israel, and whoever it was that allowed Democratic Senate candidates to run this year’s content-frees campaigns?

2. They should look at the political landscape: People are discontented. Why? In part, because incomes haven’t risen in 15 years. What did Democrats do in response? Nothing. What did voters do? They voted enmasse for the party that has done everything possible to keep their incomes down. Apparently, any change was better than more of the same inaction.

3. They need to listen to constituents. The current bunch are over-manipulative, over-controlled, and fools for the money. Over the past 30 years, the Wrongologist has met with Governors, Senators and Congress people to push policy ideas. But today, what mostly comes out of those meetings (if they will take them) are platitudes and polite put-downs.

4. They need to realize that good Ideas can come from the people: The purpose of Occupy Wall Street was to drive the 1%-99% inequality idea. It gained traction. Everyone knew it was true, but Democrats could (or would) not operationalize any policy from the idea. They let the bankers off the hook, while mildly pushing tax reform and the Minimum Wage. Maybe what we saw last night was the “Revenge of Occupy”.

People tend to believe what Republicans say about Democrats, instead of what Democrats actually say about themselves. Their peer-pressure techniques block out reasoned political conversation. This has the effect of isolating people, and convincing them that everyone around them believes Republican-speak, and that to cross that line will result in personal approbation, or possibly, social excommunication.

Allowing this to continue has been the greatest failure of Democratic leaders.

The problem is that people either don’t know what the Democrats and the Republicans stand for, or don’t really care. Based on the Pew poll of voting types, nonpartisans have no idea who runs what in Congress.

If we can get voters to understand what Republicans are for and what Democrats are for, there could be Democratic majorities even with the level of turnout we saw yesterday. This is “branding”, and Democrats have to stop letting the R’s do it for them.

Look, we’ve made surprising progress on some issues in the past 6 years. The gap is with connecting the winning issues to the winning candidates. Unless the Democratic Party changes, it is a casket for progressive ideas and candidates.

Sources:

What Should We Do with Extra Firefighters?

A little known fact is that over the past 40 years, the number of fires in the US have dropped dramatically. Consider this chart from Vox, based on data from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA):

The number of fires responded to by municipal fire departments in 2013, about 1.2 million, is roughly a third of the 3.3 million responses in 1977. Note that these numbers don’t include wildfires, which aren’t dealt with by local fire departments and as Vox reports, keep getting worse.

And since the US population has increased by 44% during that same period, this is a pretty remarkable trend. It seems that most of the improvement can be attributed to things we would expect: stricter fire codes, fireproof building materials, cars that catch on fire less often, and installation of protective devices like smoke alarms.

Yet, during the same period, the number of firefighters has increased:

Paid firefighters have increased by roughly 48%, from about 230k in 1986 to about 340k in 2012, in line with the population growth. The number of volunteer firefighters has remained the same. We now have more firefighters fighting fewer fires. So, what are all these firefighters doing?

Firefighters now respond to many more medical calls per year than actual fires. In fact, the chart below shows that fires and false alarms held steady or declined, while medical calls grew from 5 million to about 22 million by 2012. There is also a slightly better chance that the fire engine is responding to a false alarm than to a fire:

The decline in fires has put firefighters in a curious position. What should they be doing to justify their (in most cases) growing budgets? Vox quotes Libertarian economist Alex Tabarrock of George Mason University:

Firefighters face what I’ve called the ‘March of Dimes’ problem. After polio was cured, the March of Dimes looked around and said ‘what do we do now?’ Firefighters have been facing the same problem.

Now, there is little in city life that is more reassuring than walking past the neighborhood fire house. It reminds us that there are people in our employ who are ready to strap on equipment and head into danger to help out one of our neighbors. But it wasn’t always that way:

The Wrongologist may be one of the last persons who remembers when homeowners paid a fee to a for-profit fire department to protect your property. That was in Brooklyn, NY in the early 1950’s. The fire company placed a medallion on the homes of their “clients”, and didn’t protect any homes without medallions. There was no public FD service in that neighborhood until the late 1950’s.

The Boston Globe reports that the Boston FD accounts for 7.5% of the city’s total budget, while NYC spends $1.72 billion on its FD. It is difficult to tell people that fewer firefighters will keep them just as safe, and the political fall-out for any mayor who tries to dramatically reduce firefighter head count would almost certainly be gruesome. Talk about poking the bear.

But what is the highest and best use for idle firefighters? Could cities work to slowly transfer firefighters to EMT, Park Rangers, Inspection Services or other city jobs? What about the pay differences? There are always efficiencies to be gained in public jobs. It seems sensible to start reducing staffing levels and adjust the number of fire stations, given the occurrence of fires.

Efficiencies might be found by using better processes, such as integrating the dispatch services operated by EMT and Fire, or by using different tools. For example, if cities want to use firefighters as extra paramedics, maybe sending smaller trucks or motorcycles equipped with oxygen for cardiac situations, might be workable. The motorcycle would likely get on site sooner, and the crackerbox EMT truck could follow behind for transportation of a patient to hospital. There would always be some extra portly people who can’t be carried down 5 flights of stairs by 2-3 people, so they would have to wait for reinforcements. But there should be no need to dispatch a fire truck just to be sure more lifting power is available if needed.

Natalie Simpson, a SUNY Buffalo professor who studies the history of emergency response, says that because of the nature of the demands we put on fire departments, we can’t really shrink their ranks, and there are problems with putting them in different vehicles too:

If you say, ‘there’s very few fires, so we don’t need as many firefighters or fire engines,’ a fire is still eventually going to break out…And without the same response resources, you’re going to have the same number of very few fires, but some of them are going to become catastrophic.

Her view is that we need to have a surge capability to respond in any given area to make sure that the few fires that do occur can be put out quickly. We can model those issues as we ALWAYS do in the private sector, to determine optimal staffing and equipment for the required level of response.

No one should be saying that firefighters aren’t heroes, or that they didn’t show amazing teamwork and bravery when on the scene of a fire. But all that bravery should not by itself, justify inefficient numbers. Every dollar we can save is a dollar that can be better used elsewhere.