What’s Wrong Today:
This morning we read that Russia sunk an old warship in the mouth of a harbor where the Ukranian Navy had some of its ships at anchor, effectively preventing their access to the Black Sea. From the Daily Mail:
Congrats Vladimir Putin, you win Crimea! Nice Crimea you got there Vlad, it would be a shame if something happened to it. But, the devil is always in the details. From the Monkey Cage:
annexing Crimea would be a costly enterprise…Crimea has no fresh water supplies and it does not generate its own electricity; in fact, it receives 90% of water, 80% of electricity, 60% of other primary goods and 70% of its money from Kiev
Wow, Crimea for the win! Putin will have to provide Crimea access to these resources from Russia, at what will be a huge cost. Putin might have to spend an amount similar to what he spent to build the Sochi Olympics infrastructure, or, slightly less than the value the Russian stock market lost on Monday. More from the Monkey Cage:
Crimea with its 2 million person population would become an economic drain on Russia even more than the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whose populations totals some 250,000 and 45,000 respectively
Building or creating these capacities in Crimea could put a huge strain on the Russian budget.
Maybe Putin expects to cut a deal with Ukraine to keep supplying water and electricity in return for which, he will shelve (temporarily) any demands for more Ukranian territory
Part of Putin’s big win will be the job of pacifying the Tatars. 12% percent of Crimea’s population is ethnically Tatar. The Tatars have called for Turkish mediation and are refusing to recognize the seizure of power in Crimea as legitimate. Russia’s annexation of Crimea might lead to the guerrilla war we discussed yesterday.
Annexing Crimea will also cause a deterioration in Russia’s relations with its post-Soviet neighbors. The former Soviet states must be having serious security concerns as they watch Putin’s actions in Ukraine. Specifically, the annexation may be perceived as extremely threatening by neighboring and somewhat friendly states, such as Belarus and Kazakhstan, where large Russian-speaking populations reside.
As we said yesterday, annexing Crimea could put an end to Moscow’s reintegration projects such as the Custom Union. Ukraine could be pushed to protect its security by seeking NATO membership.
We could get lucky and escape a self-inflicted wound. America tried to pull a fast one by energizing a Ukrainian “democracy movement” that was a well-organized mob. That mob included a significant number of nationalist thugs. When things with the mob went south, Mr. Obama did not employ a defensive diplomatic position where he might have agreed with Russia’s concerns about the mob and the coup.
We could have agreed that the new Ukranian government had little legitimacy, that it should have been more inclusive, that the parties should work together to avoid the appearance of a coup, provided ousted president Yanukovych was not brought back.
All of that would have been relatively easy to say via back channels.
But Mr. Obama, and the “haircut in search of a brain”, (h/t Jim Kunstler), Sec. of State John Kerry, made increasingly strident statements including vague threats. Now, we have sanctions, a reasonably predictable next step.
Mr. Obama seems to be forcing a showdown with Russia, and Mr. Putin personally. Let’s assume that Mr. Obama is trying to blunt Republican attacks on his ability to manage our foreign policy, so grandstanding is required for home consumption, particularly with Congress in play in the 2014 elections.
But, ceding Crimea is likely to be a win for Ukraine, America and the EU.
Why can’t we let Putin weaken his economy further by propping up Crimea?
I don’t think we want to set the precedent that taking land/property by force is acceptable (even if that land is not self sufficient). I think we need to unite as civilized nations and stop it.
Tim: while a precedent is worrisome, i agree with the Wrongologist. sadly, if the president spoke forthrightly to the nation that Putin can choke on his prize, the Congress would erupt in even worse sanctions.
By the way, I thought Romney was a haircut in search of…
One thing for Putin to consider is that referendums can work both ways. Maybe some other mildly pro-Russian regions now affiliated w/Russia vote for autonomous region status like Crimea has today, possibly as a part of Ukraine.
Tim, those in America that see Putin as Adolph Jr. will say that if he annexes Crimea, he will be emboldened, and move to acquire something else next. Maybe. Since we can’t move warships into the Black Sea, will we just drone the bejezzus out of Russian installations in Crimea?
That kind of escalation leaves no “off-ramp” for Obama, much less for Poland, Turkey, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania,the Czech Republic and 7 other former Warsaw Pact countries that are members of NATO. The war of words is nearly out of hand as it is.
Terry: Calling Kerry a “haircut in search of a brain” is attributed to Kevin Phillips.