The Daily Escape:
Sunrise, Jensen Beach, FL – November 2021 photo by Patrice Ostradick
More about the Demâs messaging problem. The latest jobs report showed that we added more than 530,000 new jobs in October. And the DOL also revised its estimates for September and August, confirming an additional 235,000 positions were created.
Thatâs 766,000 jobs we didnât know about until last Friday.
The news sent the Dow Jones upward (again). It ended at another all-time high, 36,327. Since Biden was elected last year, the market is up 40%. Thatâs $14 trillion in new wealth that has landed in quite a few pockets. But the media still covered a Biden administration in disarray. From Eric Boehlert:
â…on Friday, news consumers visiting WashingtonPost.com had to scroll down past 75 different stories and links before they found the first mention of the blockbuster jobs report…..at the top of the Post site Friday afternoon was a column about how the White House is having trouble spreading good news about the economy.â
Again, the media going all âgotchaâ on Biden. And itâs having an impact on his poll numbers, which took another dive in a USA Today poll over the weekend that shows Republicans holding a lead on the 2022 Congressional ballot. It found that Biden lost support among the Independent voters who delivered his margin of victory over Trump one year ago:
- 46% said Biden has done a worse job as president than they expected, including 16% of those who voted for him. Independents, by 7-1 (44%-6%), say he’s done worse, not better, than they expected.
- 64% said they didn’t want Biden to run for a second term in 2024. That includes 28% of Democrats.
Democrats need to understand their peril. The NYTâs front-page story, âAmericans Are Flush With Cash and Jobs. They Also Think the Economy Is Awfulâ shows their dilemma. The economy is by all accounts on fire, but consumers and voters think itâs floundering. You might question just who is flush with cash, but the negative views of the economy seem to be tied to the effects that rising prices and shortages have on families. Regardless of the exact causes, after decades where the lack of jobs drove economic sentiment, inflation now appears to be a force driving opinion about the economy.
Prices for many consumer goods are rising, and as we said yesterday, itâs impossible to win elections by telling voters that their concerns are imaginary. From Bloomberg (paywalled):
âItâs not all negativity: A record-high 74% of respondents told Gallup in October that this is a good time to find a quality job, and 65% told AP-NORC pollsters that their personal financial situation was good. The Conference Boardâs Consumer Confidence Index rose in October and, while lower than before the pandemic, is higher than at any time between 2001 and 2017.â
The reality is that consumer prices have risen faster over the past six months than at any time since the early 1980s. And thereâs increasing evidence of a partisan bias in consumer sentiment, with most people judging the economy more favorably when the person they voted for is president.
Remember that the USA Today poll says 64% think Biden shouldnât run in 2024. Maybe some of todayâs economic pessimism has to do with people downgrading their view of Bidenâs competence after the surge in the Delta variant that killed so many, while our messy withdrawal from Afghanistan was seen by many as humiliating.
The Democratsâ conundrum is how to respond both to the economic concerns and the cultural attacks. They canât win by simply pointing to their actual policies on specific issues. They must respond to the attacks on âwrong way for the countryâ by honing a message that works for the persuadable Independents. We live in a 40-40-20 country in which 40% percent are hard-wired for either Party, and 20% are swing voters, who are primarily located in the suburbs. They largely control the outcome of elections.
Democrats need to study the art of persuasion. The Right is driven by nostalgia: they want to go back to a âsimpler timeâ. The Left is motivated by change, to ensure rights for all, whether thatâs healthcare or fair wages. if Democrats want to win against the highly organized right-wing media ecosystem, they must find a series of messages to persuade Independents.
We need a tune for Tuesday. Hereâs Willy Nile with something brand new, âThe Justice Bellâ a tribute to John Lewis, from his August 2021 album, âThe Day The Earth Stood Stillâ:
