The Wrongologist

The Daily Escape:

The confluence of the Green River (L) and the Grand River (R) form the Colorado River, Canyonlands NP, UT – July 2023 photo by Michael L Mauldin. In 1921, the Grand River was renamed the Colorado.

Wrongo doesn’t think that political polls have much value if they have a national focus, but still, he presents an  Economist / YouGov Poll taken between July 8th and 11th of a nationwide sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,296 registered voters). The margin of error for adults is 2.8%, and for registered voters is 2.9%. They asked whether the country is in a recession:

Responses show that about 47% of adults and 48% of registered voters believe the US economy is currently in a recession. But, it’s not true.

We’re still seeing inflation: The BLS reported the Consumer Price Index was up 3% year over year in June. Inflation in June 2022 was 9% and it’s been falling ever since. It is now back near what the Fed says is its target for inflation, 2%.

But having inflation, even severe inflation, doesn’t mean we’re also in a recession. In fact, employment has continued to grow, even as economic growth has slowed. Growth has slowed from about 7% in 2021 to about 2% in the first quarter of 2023. But the economy isn’t shrinking. And the jobless rate in June was 3.6%, still at very low levels not seen consistently since the late 1960s. That would be 50+ years ago.

CNN quotes Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan:

“We’re running out of time for a 2023 recession….We’ve never had a recession when the labor market was running this hot. In fact, it would be absurd to use r-word at a time when we’re creating jobs at this rate.”

Americans need to be taught economics. And also to read. It shouldn’t be so difficult to understand that the US economy is still humming along. Sadly though, most high schools don’t teach economics, and many college degrees don’t require it. This has resulted in economically ignorant adults (including voters) who just believe what lying politicians and an ambivalent media tell them.

The media’s endless ranting about inflation and recession has been a problem for Democrats. There’s plenty of economic unease and a lot of it is generated by so-called media “experts”.

People seem to want more concrete indications that we’ve turned a corner. But we’ve gone from  ̶800,000 jobs a month to full employment. Isn’t that turning a corner? We’ve had real wage gains after 44 years of declining real wages: Isn’t that turning a corner?

If you’re not someone who pays much attention to politics and/or if most of your information is coming from mainstream media, this is what you remember hearing about the Biden presidency:

• The economy sucks because nobody wants to work.
• INFLATION!!
• Home prices are rising, which is why YOU can’t afford one!
• Home prices are falling, which is why YOU can’t retire!
• GAS PRICES!!! OMG!
• There’s going to be a MASSIVE recession any day now!

Every night since Biden took office, the media has blanketed us with some flavor of all of those narratives. Every night, every newscast.

But some of us say that it’s a complete mystery why Biden’s poll numbers won’t budge.

OTOH, the cost of housing is increasing year over year. Insurance premiums are increasing by double digits year over year. The plumber or HVAC guy costs way more. But since the headline rate of inflation is down, let’s all go out for steak and lobster tonight.

From a political perspective, shouldn’t the Democrats fulfill the wishes of the voters who think we’re in a recession by having one now rather than waiting until 2024? A recession next year would make the Biden reelection effort (along with the efforts to take control of the House and keep control of the Senate) less viable.

We’re a nation of economic illiterates who can’t figure out when the economy actually is good. Right now, they are telling pollsters that they’re doing okay, but the economy is terrible.

And since they vote, Democrats will do substantially better in 2024 with a soft landing rather than a mild recession, regardless of whether polls are still showing voters believe that the country’s in a recession.