The Daily Escape:
Eastern Bluebird, Cape Cod, MA – November 2023 photo by Ken Grille Photography
“Always go to other people’s funerals, otherwise they won’t come to yours.” – Yogi Berra
Biden celebrated his 81st birthday on Monday. Although this isn’t breaking news, as if on cue there were plenty of: “Is Biden Too Old?” faux concern expressed by journalists and pundits across the media landscape. As Wrongo has said before, Biden is visibly old. He looks like many older men who have remained physically fit: They seem thinner with voices that become more gravely with time.
From Paul Campos:
“When Biden was born in 1942, the…life expectancy for American males at birth was 62.6 years. 81 years later, it’s possible to estimate within an extremely high degree of accuracy how long American men born in 1942 will end up living, on average. The answer is 71.1 years, i.e., 14% longer than their…life expectancy at birth.”
Wow! Biden is old! Campos describes the two alternative definitions of life expectancy. First, period life expectancy, which is “life expectancy at birth,” a statistical construct. Period life expectancy isn’t a prediction: it’s a statement of a statistical fact. That fact is, if age adjusted mortality rates were to remain constant over the course of a cohort’s lifetime, it would indicate the average age at which people in that cohort died.
The second is called cohort life expectancy. This is a look back at how long people actually lived. When Biden was born in 1942, the period life expectancy for American males at birth was 62.6 years. This alternative definition of life expectancy how long people actually live, is called cohort life expectancy. That is 71.4 years in Biden’s case.
The gap between period life expectancy and cohort life expectancy was at one point nearly 20%. It turns out that people born in the US in 1900 lived to be on average 56 rather than the expected 47 years. With the massive improvements in medicine and public health over the last 120 years, the difference between period and cohort life expectancy are diminishing.
Period life expectancy isn’t a prediction, and it’s very inaccurate. Nevertheless it is almost always interpreted by the media as a prediction.
If Wrongo had one request for Biden’s handlers it would be to teach him to add more color, more inflection, to his voice. Everyone knows that he will occasionally trip over a word or two when speaking. That problem is as old as the man himself. From the NYT: (brackets by Wrongo)
“While Mr. Biden shuffles when he walks, talks in a low tone that can be hard to hear and sometimes confuses names and details in public…[his staff]…note that he maintains a crushing schedule that would tire a younger president.”
And while it is easy to see that Biden remains in command of situations that would cause younger men to freeze, better projection of his words and ideas would go a long way to blunting the finger-wagging ageists who jump on his every appearance on the world stage.
That said, Wrongo thinks that Americans can hold two competing thoughts at the same time: Biden is older than Trump but is competent and accomplished. While Trump is younger and a menace to America. To Wrongo, it seems that the press is more concerned about Biden having a birthday than about Trump becoming Hitler.
The media who are pushing Biden’s age choose to ignore Trump’s age. He’s 77 and will be 78 if elected, and 82 at the end of his term. He’s not aging well. In his recent campaign appearances, he’s mistaken Biden for Obama 7 times, claimed that Biden will start World War II and said that Jeb Bush started the Iraq War.
These are just the highlights, and there are many more alarming gaffes. Think about what a second Trump term would bring: a dictator-adjacent felon who wants to weaponize the DOJ to take revenge on his former political appointments.
Despite Biden’s many achievements, during one of the toughest periods in our recent history, the media has planted and nurtured the idea that Biden is unfit to be president. Why? Well, because of nothing beyond how Biden seems in videos. After thousands of articles saying Biden’s too old, many in America are willing to dump the president that ended Trump’s reign of error.
Let’s get real: Biden has rung up a fine record as president. CLEARLY, his age and experience have given him the ability to make decisions that less experienced politicians probably would not make. Biden has ably handled foreign crises and had the most productive first three years of any president since LBJ.
All the while, his opponent is rapidly decompensating. This from a man who has proven his inability to put the country first in his thinking. The contrast is stunning, and more obvious than the media seems capable of being honest about.
The sad truth is that neither Party is willing to take the risk of nominating a younger candidate who might underperform what Biden and Trump did in the 2020 presidential election.
In the meantime, happy birthday Joe Biden, who statisticians predict will be approximately one year older than he is today on election day 2024!
It probably won’t be long before we see a headline saying, “If Biden really cared about the environment he wouldn’t put so many candles on his birthday cake.”
As a 72 y.o who retired at 70 (still work part time for my former employer) in the last 3 years, I was less active. Still worked 55 hours but did not stay after to socialize and did no travel at all. But I remained able to add value for what I was expert at. Oh, I also searched for words a bit etc. And my aching knees — well they ached. As a consultant i continue to provide advice on complex matters (potential lawsuits for example). Biden has all of the skills that come of age and has lost some capabilities. But it is his wisdom we need. I voted for Obama and Clinton, but neither had Biden’s wisdom for all their charm and glibness.
I am 15 years older than Terence and share his story of retiring from fulltime work at 70ish, but continuing to work part-time. Not because I need the money, but because I love the enterprise and am grateful for the colleagueship. I too am creaky and have to work at remaining semi-fit. I have been deliberate about asking my principal workmates to tell me when it’s time to hang up my spurs. They have continued thus far to assure me that I can do the work and add that I bring valued perspectives exactly because of my long tenure.
It is against that shared background the I wholeheartedly endorse Terence’s conclusion that Biden’s deep experience and steady vision more than compensate for his weakened voice and visage. Biden’s quick and confident response after the Hamas invasion was ample evidence of that experience, of his long relationships with foreign leaders and of his decisional competence when so much is at stake. America and the world need those qualities more that a quick step and glib voice.
And, as an urgent, practical matter, versis WHO? Wrongo’s posting aptly brings us back to the apparent ballot alternatives. Gotta choose, not just muse. (Though musing with youse is both important and fun.)
I think Biden shows symptoms of en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dysarthria (in particular slurred speech).
I disagree re dysarthria. I am a trained singer and most choirs are full of older singers (the young don’t join). As singers age their mouths have aged too. So with a shallow voice and a tired tongue, their articulation is sloppier. By the way, Nancy Pelosi showed a little of that. So disagree. He sounds like a typical old man with an old man’s mouth, lungs etc.