Voter Turnout – Page 12 – The Wrongologist

Saturday Soother – July 22, 2023

The Daily Escape:

Sunset, Yarmouth Port, Cape Cod, MA – July 2023 photo by Cynthia Maciaga

Wrongo continues to find demographic differences between the voters of 2020 and today. Most of those differences favor the Democrats. A WaPo op-ed by Celinda Lake and Mac Heller talks about some of them:

“Every year, about 4 million Americans turn 18 and gain the right to vote. In the eight years between the 2016 and 2024 elections, that’s 32 million new eligible voters. Also every year, 2½ million older Americans die. So in the same eight years, that’s as many as 20 million fewer older voters.”

This means that between 2016 and 2024, the cohort of eligible voters will have changed by a net 52 million. That difference is largely driven by new young people entering the pool and older people exiting. Those 32 million new voters are mostly “Gen Z”, who now constitute 20% of today’s American electorate.

In other words, it is highly unlikely, despite what national polls are showing, that the 2024 election will be a repeat of either 2016 or 2020.

Lake and Heller address the nuances of the demographic changes that are reshaping the electorate. The data show that today’s electorate is younger, more educated, and more issues-focused than in 2016 when Trump won. These factors tend to favor Democrats but do not guarantee success. Their takeaway is that Democrats are better positioned than Republicans to take advantage of these demographic changes. Lake and Heller stress that how Democrats reach them must be different from previous elections:

“Meet young voters where they are: on social media, not cable news. Make your messages short, funny and somehow sarcastic yet authentic and earnest at the same time. Your focus should be issues first, issues second, candidates third and party identity never.”

Economic Illiteracy

The Daily Escape:

The confluence of the Green River (L) and the Grand River (R) form the Colorado River, Canyonlands NP, UT – July 2023 photo by Michael L Mauldin. In 1921, the Grand River was renamed the Colorado.

Wrongo doesn’t think that political polls have much value if they have a national focus, but still, he presents an Economist / YouGov Poll taken between July 8th and 11th of a nationwide sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,296 registered voters). The margin of error for adults is 2.8%, and for registered voters is 2.9%. They asked whether the country is in a recession:

Responses show that about 47% of adults and 48% of registered voters believe the US economy is currently in a recession. But, it’s not true.

We’re still seeing inflation: The BLS reported the Consumer Price Index was up 3% year over year in June. Inflation in June 2022 was 9% and it’s been falling ever since. It is now back near what the Fed says is its target for inflation, 2%.

But having inflation, even severe inflation, doesn’t mean we’re also in a recession. In fact, employment has continued to grow, even as economic growth has slowed. Growth has slowed from about 7% in 2021 to about 2% in the first quarter of 2023. But the economy isn’t shrinking. And the jobless rate in June was 3.6%, still at very low levels not seen consistently since the late 1960s. That would be 50+ years ago.

CNN quotes Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan:

“We’re running out of time for a 2023 recession….We’ve never had a recession when the labor market was running this hot. In fact, it would be absurd to use r-word at a time when we’re creating jobs at this rate.”

Americans need to be taught economics. And also to read. It shouldn’t be so difficult to understand that the US economy is still humming along. Sadly though, most high schools don’t teach economics, and many college degrees don’t require it. This has resulted in economically ignorant adults (including voters) who just believe what lying politicians and an ambivalent media tell them.

The media’s endless ranting about inflation and recession has been a problem for Democrats. There’s plenty of economic unease and a lot of it is generated by so-called media “experts”.

People seem to want more concrete indications that we’ve turned a corner. But we’ve gone from ̶800,000 jobs a month to full employment. Isn’t that turning a corner? We’ve had real wage gains after 44 years of declining real wages: Isn’t that turning a corner?

If you’re not someone who pays much attention to politics and/or if most of your information is coming from mainstream media, this is what you remember hearing about the Biden presidency:

The economy sucks because nobody wants to work.
INFLATION!!
Home prices are rising, which is why YOU can’t afford one!
Home prices are falling, which is why YOU can’t retire!
GAS PRICES!!! OMG!
There’s going to be a MASSIVE recession any day now!

Every night since Biden took office, the media has blanketed us with some flavor of all of those narratives. Every night, every newscast.

But some of us say that it’s a complete mystery why Biden’s poll numbers won’t budge.

OTOH, the cost of housing is increasing year over year. Insurance premiums are increasing by double digits year over year. The plumber or HVAC guy costs way more. But since the headline rate of inflation is down, let’s all go out for steak and lobster tonight.

From a political perspective, shouldn’t the Democrats fulfill the wishes of the voters who think we’re in a recession by having one now rather than waiting until 2024? A recession next year would make the Biden reelection effort (along with the efforts to take control of the House and keep control of the Senate) less viable.

We’re a nation of economic illiterates who can’t figure out when the economy actually is good. Right now, they are telling pollsters that they’re doing okay, but the economy is terrible.

And since they vote, Democrats will do substantially better in 2024 with a soft landing rather than a mild recession, regardless of whether polls are still showing voters believe that the country’s in a recession.

Saturday Soother – July 8, 2023

The Daily Escape:

There are currently 13 turkey chicks roaming the Fields of Wrong. One mom has nine and the other, four. While each year we hope for the best, we live amongst always hungry Coopers and Red Tailed hawks. Oh, and watch out for the foxes, coyotes and bobcats – July 2023 iPhone photo by Wrongo.

In Wrongo’s last column, he talked about the need to fight and win the long battle to reclaim rights that were lost in recent Supreme Court decisions:

“It won’t be easy to win these rights back, but it isn’t impossible.”

And new data from NBC offers a ray of hope:

“Republican primary voters are older, whiter and much more conservative than the electorate at large…. 39% of Republican primary voters are age 65 and older, compared with 25% of the overall electorate and 25% of Democratic primary voters, according to the poll…..89% of GOP primary voters are white, versus 72% of all voters.”

Here’s a chart from the poll:

Only 24% of GOP voters are under age 50, compared to 57.9% of the US population. More:

“…67% of Republican primary voters say they are conservative, including 41% who are “very” conservative…..That compares with 36% of all voters who are conservative, including 18% who are “very” conservative.”

There’s more bad news for the GOP in recent census data:

One of the most significant developments in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election is that census data show that the number of white people without college degrees (a core of Trump’s support) has fallen by 2.1 million since 2016.
Over the same period, the number of white people who have graduated from college (an increasingly Democratic constituency) has grown by 13.3 million.

Worse for the GOP and Trump, the reliance of the GOP on the electorate without college degrees has grown. In 2012, 48% of Republicans didn’t have college degrees. By 2016, that percentage had increased to 58%, but according to the NBC News poll, it’s now 63%.

They’ve also lost many of the college educated over the past eight years. And the population of the non-college educated is shrinking. It’s not a good formula for victory. It all points to having a decent chance to win the town by town, state by state fight to blunt the Supreme Court’s extremism. Forget what the media are saying, 2024 doesn’t have to be a close election.

And let’s also forget about the news, or where in the world Prigozhin is hiding. Rumors say he’s in St. Petersburg, Russia. Soon we’ll want proof of life.

And if you want to know just how far to the right the House Freedom Caucus has moved, they just ousted Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) for being too liberal.

But it’s time to leave all of this behind and concentrate on our Saturday Soother.

We’re in the middle of a heat wave here in northwest Connecticut, and that makes all of the necessary yard work much more difficult to do. This year, we’ve had rabbits in our vegetable garden along with the usual horde of chipmunks, so Wrongo put up some of the deer fencing we use in the winter around the garden. We’ll see if it is successful.

This morning grab a cold brew coffee and take a seat in the shade outdoors. Now put on your Bluetooth headset and watch and listen to Sissel Kyrkjebø, a Norwegian soprano, perform “Going Home”. This song is about Antonin Dvorak, who wrote his Symphony No. 9, “From the New World” soon after arriving in America in 1893.

The song is based on the larghetto movement from Dvorak’s 9th. One of Dvorak’s students, William Arms Fisher, put words to the melody from the second movement. He called the new song, “Goin’ Home“. It was published in 1922.

Dvorak outlived his entire family, and returned home to Bohemia from the US. He died in 1904, at the age of 63. Sissel, who Wrongo knew nothing about before today, sings beautifully. Consider that English may not even be her primary language:

You Say You Want A Revolution

The Daily Escape:

17 Palms Oasis, Anza-Borrego SP, CA – June 2023 photo by Paulette Donnellon. When Wrongo and Ms. Right lived in LA, we hiked to this spot twice with grandkids.

This year, the Fourth of July just won’t let go of Wrongo. Political historian Eli Merritt has an op-ed in the LA Times: The Fourth of July is all about America’s first principle — the right of revolution:

“This right of resistance against inequality and tyranny is the American way. It is the essence of the American experiment, beginning in the 1760s and 1770s with the colonists’ defiance of the Stamp Act, the Townshend Acts, the Tea Act and the Intolerable Acts; and in the 19th and 20th centuries with the abolitionist movement, women’s suffrage movement, the Emancipation Proclamation, the 13th, 14th, 15th, and 19th amendments, and the civil rights movement; and today with nonviolent fights for racial justice, equal voting rights, LGBTQ+ rights and women’s reproductive rights.”

We’re a country born of revolution. But after the Jan 6 insurrection, people are probably put off by the very idea of it. It’s what Trump’s seditionists did when they stormed the Capitol. Their goal was to prevent, or at least to obstruct, the certification of the 2020 presidential election.

And they did so by summoning the spirit of 1776. But in contrast to the J6 “protesters”, the people who approved the Declaration signed their names to a document. They didn’t wear hoods, masks, or camo gear and beat up people. The country’s “revolution” began with paper, pen and ink, with “revolutionaries” plainly identifying themselves. As Merritt points out:

“…the Declaration of Independence is a nonviolent manifesto. It makes no mention of swords, guns or war. Separately, the Continental Congress called upon American patriots to arm themselves, yet only in self-defense of God-given natural rights.”

Yet here we are in 2023, facing once again a fight for rights that we had already won, says The Guardian’s Rebecca Solnit: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“The first thing to remember about the damage done by the US supreme court this June and the June before is that each majority decision overturns a right that we had won…. What this means is that the right wing of the US supreme court is part of a gang of reactionaries engaging in backlash.”

In the 303 Creative v. Elenis case, the Supreme Court made a decision based on nothing, in which a woman refuses to perform a service she didn’t provide, to a gay couple that didn’t exist, in the name of religious “liberty.” That six Supremes jumped on this case is a travesty. We either back down and accept the direction these extreme Justices are pushing the country toward, or we fight.

Wrongo wants to fight, just like he did in the 1960s. It won’t be easy to win these rights back, but it isn’t impossible. And this from WaPo’s Jennifer Rubin:

“On…Independence Day, which celebrates rebellion against a monarch lacking consent of the governed, it behooves us to dedicate ourselves to robust and authentic democracy: government of the people, by the people, for the people — not by arrogant right-wing justices.”

The Supreme Court is the point of the American Conservative movement’s spear, and it must be our goal to blunt their extremisim. The ballot box is our only way out of this mess, so it will take an immense amount of organizing and effort to overcome the gerrymandering, active voter suppression and massive disinformation campaigns conducted by the media.

The current SCOTUS cannot change our beliefs and values. These rights are ours, regardless of what six Supremes say. From Solnit:

“If you didn’t believe that equal access and rights were wrong yesterday…you don’t have to believe it now. Not just because those rights were denied by six justices….”

The country is on our side. Gallup has a new poll of approve/disapprove of the Supreme Court:

This shows that the people agree with blunting the power of today’s Supreme Court. The final words go to Solnit:

“…history shows us that when we come together with ferocious commitment to a shared goal we can be more powerful than institutions and governments. The right would like us to feel defeated and powerless. We can feel devastated and still feel powerful or find our power. This is not a time to quit. It’s a time to fight.”

We must take every available measure in our democracy to revoke consent and remedy these unconstitutional decisions. It will require active engagement in all levels of the democratic political process, from local school boards to the presidency. We can’t take any political office for granted.

Help new voters obtain ID and register to vote. Educate yourself about the candidates, vote in the primaries. Get your friends and families to vote. Make sure no seat goes uncontested wherever a GOP politician holds office or runs without opposition.

Above all, do not let them assume that you consent to the loss of our rights.

July 4, 2023

The Daily Escape:

Kilauea Caldera showing a blackened lava lake, Hawaii Volcanoes NP – June 2023 photo by J. Wei for the NPS

Kilauea stopped erupting on June 19, but the threat of another eruption is always present. That could be a metaphor for America in 2023: We could erupt at any moment.

The 1960s were an optimistic time. There were demonstrations for civil rights and against the Vietnam War. There was police violence against the demonstrators, and assassinations of JFK and MLK. But a throughline of those times was a belief that righteous change was possible.

Wrongo graduated from Georgetown in 1966. His specialty was American colonial history. Those also were times of optimism, and there also were factions and different priorities and beliefs throughout the land.

Back in the 18^th century, we overcame our differences, declared our independence, and formed a nation.

Now, 247 years after our revolution, it seems that staying united is difficult, if not impossible. Today, facts are fungible, and so is the truth. As Wrongo stated in his last column, about one third of Americans fail to vote. They are apathetic because they can’t see what would change if they did vote.

Having one third of Americans regularly fail to vote has surrendered control over our politics and our courts to a minority, mostly a few at the top, supported by some people in the middle, and enabled by the apathy of most of the rest of us.

Worse, most of those in today’s controlling minority are extremists. They have exploited the imperfections in our system to impose a return to the social mores and politics of an earlier time.

The best example of this is the string of far-Right decisions handed down in 2022 by the Supreme (Extreme) Court. From Slate’s Mark Joseph Stern:

“Consider the issues that SCOTUS has resolved….The constitutional right to abortion: gone. States’ ability to limit guns in public: gone….Effective constraints around separation of church and state: gone. The bar on prayer in public schools: gone. Effective enforcement of Miranda warnings: gone. The ability to sue violent border agents: gone. The Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gases at power plants: gone.”

Vast areas of law that took decades to establish were overturned in a year.

And in 2023, the Court’s reactionary majority has continued to overturn more of the American social order. Those rulings: ending affirmative action, preventing the forgiveness of student loans and an egregious decision on gay rights, show that the Court has lost any sense of judicial restraint.

The Court is no longer “calling balls and strikes” as Chief Justice John Roberts famously said. In fact, there could be a highlight reel of umpire John Roberts’ blown calls. It’s clear that the Extreme Court wants to go further, and given today’s politics, there’s zero risk of the other two branches of government agreeing to override their decisions.

So, on this Fourth of July weekend, let’s hit pause. Let’s take time to reflect on how our founders were able to weave a message that united many factions against a common enemy. It should be very clear that at this point that the common enemy to unite against is the partisan power of a partisan minority.

Real power no longer lies with the People or with their politicians, it resides in the Supreme Court. The antiquated and undemocratic elements of our government: the Electoral College, lifetime tenure for Supreme Court justices and the malapportionment of the Senate, would require Constitutional amendments to fix. But we’re too divided to amend the Constitution.

Imagine attempting to fix the Senate’s malapportionment by getting a Constitutional amendment through that same malapportioned Senate.

But there may be reason for optimism in the fact that the two of this term’s negative rulings related to college students (admissions and debt relief). Those issues will motivate young voters in 2024.

Here are some numbers that give some cause for optimism about younger voters helping to change our politics:

Voters 47 and younger will be in the majority beginning in 2028.
Younger voters have historically voted in significantly higher numbers for Democrats.
Young women, especially young Hispanics and young African Americans are substantially higher voters for Democrats.
Fifty-five percent of white male voters under 45 voted Democratic in 2022, as did 52% of younger white females.

Here are a few other facts that should make us optimistic going forward:

Abortion was youth’s #1 issue in 2022.
Mid-term voter turnout for people under 29 was 23%, lower than 2018 (28%), but much higher than in 2014 (13%).
Michigan had the highest youth turnout in the country (37%).
Two swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, were among the four states to have the highest youth turnout in 2022.

To help you reflect on how we might take back control, let’s listen to Neil Diamond’s “Coming to America” performed at the Greek Theater in Los Angles in 2012.

There are many versions of this tune on YouTube, but this one makes the point that virtually all of us are descended from immigrants, in this case, Diamond’s grandmother, who immigrated from Kyiv:

Sunday Cartoon Blogging – July 2, 2023

We’re back from our Alaska vacation. It was extended two extra days in Seattle courtesy of United Airlines, who cancelled our flight, along with thousands of others. To add to United’s bad press, its CEO, Scott Kirby took a private plane out of New York while so many of his customers were grabbing hotel rooms they didn’t want, instead of sleeping in their own beds.

Wrongo promised more photos from Alaska:

June 2023 iPhone photo by Wrongo

This iceberg broke off from the Shakes Glacier, which is located in the Stikine-LeConte Wilderness of the Tongass National Forest. It stood about 20’ above the waterline. Since about 10% of a berg is above water, about 220’ of this bad boy was underwater in Shakes Lake which is about 800′ deep. We rode in a jetboat about 25 miles from Wrangell, Alaska to see it.

This week’s cartoons are about the recent decisions by the Supreme Court. SCOTUS released opinions in three big cases, the affirmative action case, the student loan forgiveness case, and the anti-LGBT+ case. Wrongo hasn’t had time to read them carefully, but the dissents by Justices Kagan, Sotomayor and Jackson made it clear that these decisions suck.

These cases show us a few things: First, that the concept of “standing” before the court means only what the Supremes say it means. Previously, It was about where the parties in a lawsuit “stand” in relation to each other. Back in the recent past, a party had to prove they had standing before a court considers the merits of a case. But:

In the gay website case, the plaintiff trying to inflict damage on the LGBT+ community didn’t need to show standing. The Colorado web designer, who the Supremes said could refuse to make wedding websites for gay couples, cited a request from a man who told the AP, he had never asked her to do any work for him. The state of Colorado said she didn’t have sufficient grounds to sue, but the Supremes ultimately said that she did.
In Biden vs. Nebraska, the plaintiffs in the student loan case couldn’t show injury. The Supremes said that the plaintiff, the state of Missouri, had standing because Mohela a student loan servicer, is an instrumentality of the state. Mohela has the independent power to sue and be sued, but it refused to sue in this case, and the state sued on its behalf. Justice Kagan in her dissent said:

“From the first page to the last, today’s opinion departs from the demands of judicial restraint…At the behest of a party that has suffered no injury, the majority decides a contested public policy issue properly belonging to the politically accountable branches and the people they represent.”

Second, we’ve learned that the 14th Amendment, which was originally written to insure that Black people had Constitutional rights, no longer applies to them. Now that the Conservative majority on the Court has ended racism, maybe we’ll get a new holiday to celebrate!

Third, this is what happens when a third of America doesn’t vote. In 2016, we were told to elect Hillary because of the Supreme Court, but America didn’t like the “mean” lady, and Trump was elected. Despite what you thought about her, this growing list of Supreme Court decisions that so many people disagree with are a direct result of that loss.

There are two kinds of freedom: Freedom to, and freedom from. But your freedom isn’t supposed to hurt anybody else. And historically when it did, we enacted laws curtailing that behavior, but no longer. Now, we’re out there all on our own.

Society is moving backwards. Wrongo grew up in the 1960s, those good old days when politicians and the courts strived to promote equality. Now society’s divided. Its coarser, and much less equal. “It’s on you to bootstrap your way to the top” is what the Supreme Court is telling us. We’re born and after that, you’re on your own. However your life plays out, it’s your fault. On to cartoons.

No ladder required:

SCOTUS suggestion for getting ahead:

A case of blind justice:

Blinded by the White:

Some of the Supremes’ action is definitely affirmative:

OTOH, the Supremes overruled the independent legislature theory:

Where Is The GOP’s War Of Words Taking Them?

The Daily Escape:

Rain, White Sands NP – June 2023 photo by Dawood Afzal

(Wrongo and Ms. Right want to give healing thoughts and condolences to John & Janis S., who have just experienced a terrible loss.)

The NYT reported on Trump’s speech in Columbus, GA, where he was pretty chatty about the US government and the DOJ indictment:

“Either the Communists win and destroy America, or we destroy the Communists…”

He was referring to Democrats. He railed against “globalists,” “warmongers” in government and “the sick political class that hates our country.” Trump also described the DOJ as:

“…a sick nest of people that needs to be cleaned out immediately,”

He called the special counsel, Jack Smith, “deranged” and “openly a Trump hater.” He then went on to say, “This is the final battle”. And by that, he doesn’t mean the final court case against him. All of this was said in a speech to several thousand people and delegates of the Georgia Republican Party who met in a brick building that was once a Civil War ironworks that manufactured mortars, guns and cannons for the Confederate Army.

Trump calling his Democratic opponents “Communists and “Marxists” isn’t connected to today’s politics. the number of either in the US is vanishingly small. It barely makes sense, but in today’s GOP, it really doesn’t have to make sense. Trump and the GOP would never actually articulate what it is they’re opposing. That would make explicit that they’re really against America becoming more of what it is: An increasingly pluralistic and multi-ethnic country.

But many on the Right are deliberately going much further. The NYT reported that in Georgia, failed Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, said:

“I have a message tonight for Merrick Garland and Jack Smith and Joe Biden….If you want to get to President Trump, you are going to have go through me, and you are going to have to go through 75 million Americans just like me. And I’m going to tell you, most of us are card-carrying members of the NRA”

Well, that’s a threat. The same NYT article says:

“In social media posts and public remarks, close allies of…Trump…including a member of Congress…have portrayed the indictment as an act of war, called for retribution and highlighted the fact that much of his base carries weapons.”

And all of these threats against Democrats, LGBTQ+ people, the FBI and the DOJ are more than rhetoric. They’re step one in a process known as stochastic terrorism. The idea is that a person or group are demonized, and violent actions against them are suggested by a leader with a large following:

The leader doesn’t ask or arrange for a specific person to carry out the violence, but they know in advance that somewhere among their followers are people who will.
And it only takes one.
The leader accomplishes their goal of violence without formally arranging for it.
There isn’t any paper trail, or phone records, or texts, or secret payments that could eventually show up in a court of law.

But the intent is clear even if, by design, there’s no direct accountability.

Wrongo saw a quote attributed to Anand Giridharadas:

“…Donald Trump…has clearly decided that his movement, and the Republican Party that he leads, is going to be the movement of resentment against the future. It is going to be a movement of people who don’t want to live in the future.”

Trump represents people who are in a state of constant rage at the thought that the world is changing in ways they hate and can’t actually stop. The horrible part of their dilemma is that no time that actually existed is a time that they want to live in.

Trump will try to “blanket the zone” with constant misinformation that may make it difficult to empanel a south Florida jury. It will be very difficult to find prospective jurors who say truthfully that they haven’t heard about the indictments and/or formulated an idea about it.

The best way to beat back the misinformation being spread by Republicans and MAGA sympathizers is to televise the trial. Take the trial away from social media pundits and let the MAGAverse see their hero squirm, bluster, and lie with their own eyes. They’ll see his complete lack of a legitimate defense unfolding in real time. Of course, that would take a judge other than Aileen Cannon to preside.

Let’s close with a tune that’s not among the normal music flavor here at the Wrongologist. It makes the point that some Americans don’t want to live in America if it’s going to change. It shows that you don’t have to wear MAGA to be MAGA. It doesn’t mention anything overtly political, but it could be a theme song for Trump’s campaign:

Links You Can Use

The Daily Escape:

Santa Rita prickly pear in bloom, AZ – May 2023 photo by Wilson Goodrich

Today Wrongo returns to his “Links you can use” format from several years ago.

First up, Bloomberg reports that Trump’s takeover of the GOP helped him to rewrite the rules on how primary delegates to the GOP presidential convention will be awarded. Since leaving office, Trump has gotten 10 more states to award delegates through winner-take-all primaries, even if the winner receives fewer than a majority of the votes. The number of winner-take-all states has grown from seven to 17.

Needless to say, if it’s crowded field and he gets the most votes, even if it’s only 30%, he’ll win.

Second, Republican governors have discovered that they’re getting significant political mileage out of championing people who have engaged in vigilante violence that dovetails with the GOP’s culture wars. Brian Klaas writes about the Right’s open embrace of political violence. In Texas, Governor Abbott has said that he was “looking forward” to pardoning Daniel Perry, who murdered a Black Lives Matter protester. Perry was sentenced to 25 years in prison. He had previously texted a friend that he “might have to kill” some people on his way to work.

Over the weekend, Florida Governor DeSantis tweeted his support for Daniel Penny (Perry and Penny?) after Penny killed the homeless Black man Jordan Neely, on NYC’s subway. DeSantis didn’t hold back:

Lots of dog whistles right there from the governor. NBC 4New York reported that the legal defense fund had raised more than $2 million after DeSantis tweeted the link to Penny’s donation page. This shows MAGAs have found another way to wealth and fame as Daniel Penny now joins Kyle Rittenhouse as a violent millionaire funded by the Republican Right.

Brian Klaas wrote about a study that shows “Who Supports Political Violence?”, conducted by Miles T. Armaly, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Mississippi and Adam M. Enders, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Louisville. Their findings show some key traits that predict support for political violence:

Perceived victimhood is highly correlated with support for political violence. This is different from actual victimhood. While previous research found that people who are actually being oppressed are more likely to turn to violence, this study shows that it doesn’t really matter whether someone is actually being oppressed; instead, the feeling of being oppressed is sufficient.

This was the strongest predictor of support for violence.

The next strongest correlate was a sense of “white identity.” And the two interact, as those who buy into the Right-wing narrative that white people are under attack in America (due to their loss of social dominance), are also likely to be the same individuals who feel perceived victimhood.

Also, past military service is correlated with a predisposition for vigilante violence. People who previously served in the American armed forces were more likely to express support for political violence than those who have not. None of this is good news for the US.

Third, the Debt Ceiling negotiations are resuming today in the White House after House, Senate and White House negotiators met for three hours Saturday, and then reconvened on Monday. Benjamin Studebaker worries that Biden may be about to repeat Obama’s errors in negotiations with Republicans in 2011:

“Back in 2011…Obama faced the same problem…Biden now faces. Congressional Republicans refused to raise the debt ceiling unless Obama agreed to budget cuts….Obama….Instead…cut a deal. He signed the Budget Control Act of 2011. It committed the federal government to…enormous cuts. Over the course of 2012, it became clear that these cuts would cause serious damage to the economy. So…Obama negotiated another deal that would save most of the cuts for 2013. Over the course of 2013, the same arguments were made again, but this time Obama was unable to secure another delay, and the cuts took effect.”

Sounds like what we’re going through right now. In 2013, we escaped the economic disaster, but at the price of the Fed adding several rounds of Quantitative Easing leading to our current economic situation. If Biden agrees to cut spending, the economy will again be damaged.

And the Federal Reserve will be pressured to limit the damage via lower rates or flooding the market with more dollars.

Republicans will, of course, oppose tax increases. That means the Biden administration won’t be able to raise taxes to help offset the growing deficit or pay for future expenses. Therefore it has to rely on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies. The weaker economy created by rate hikes is an economy where the current tax rates will generate less tax revenue. That creates more political pressure to cut spending.

All of these stories look like rinse, lather, repeat. And not to the nation’s benefit.

Is Default Preferable To Compromise?

The Daily Escape:

Wild Ocotillo blooms with Agave buds, Anza-Borrego Desert SP, CA – May 2023 photo by Paulette Donnellon

Yesterday, Biden met with the leadership of the Congress to discuss the debt ceiling and the dangers of default. Wrongo is writing this before we know what if anything concrete, comes out of that meeting.

This is the third time in twelve years that a Republican House majority has tried to use the debt limit to extort a Democratic president into adopting policies that the GOP failed to enact through normal political means. This time around, like the past two times, Republicans say they want spending cuts, but as Nate Cohn wrote in the NYT:

“The 2022 midterm campaign didn’t show evidence of a resurgent conservative passion for spending cuts either. The debt-deficit issue had such a low profile in the national conversation that a question about it wasn’t even asked in exit polling.”

But absent real news, let’s take a look at the Republican position as outlined in the bill McCarthy and the GOP passed in the House. They’re pushing to pair $4.5 trillion in spending cuts over a decade with a one year, one time, $1.5 trillion increase in the debt limit. Their plan achieves most of its savings with spending caps for discretionary spending — the part of the yearly budget that isn’t automatic (like Social Security payments) — but it doesn’t say which discretionary programs should be cut and which should be spared.

Their plan caps government spending at last year’s levels. This would be a decrease of ~ 9%. A yearly increase is capped at 1% annually for the next 10 years. This action would save approximately $3.2 trillion. They haven’t offered any detail about where the cuts would come from, and there is no inflation adjustment to the spending cap.

But since the GOP has said it plans zero cuts in the defense budget and that there will be no cuts for veterans or for border security, cutting everywhere else will be very deep. The NYT estimates that if those programs remained untouched, the GOP plan would cut the balance of federal spending by an amount of a 51% cut across the board.

Seems unrealistic.

Social Security checks could still be issued because a 1996 law provides a means of circumventing the debt limit. It allows the Treasury Department to pay Social Security benefits, along with Medicare payments, even if there is a delay in raising the debt ceiling. It allows for the Social Security and Medicare trust funds to be drawn down to keep those benefits flowing until the debt limit is raised, and the trust fund replenished. It also prohibits those funds from being used to pay for any other government programs.

In the past, the usual political rhythm of fiscal crises is that the GOP House stumbles around for a while, and then, right before the deadline, Senate Republicans and Mitch McConnell come off the sideline. They cut a deal with the Democratic president and pass the deal in the Senate with a big bipartisan majority. They then leave town with the hot potato squarely in the Speaker’s lap.

It’s questionable if this will happen in May, 2023.

Biden should address the nation after the Tuesday talks. How about an oval office address that lays out the facts, along with a call to action: Call your representatives and tell them to pass a clean debt limit bill. He could detail for the American people the cuts the GOP are demanding in return for raising the limit. He could also say that he is willing to negotiate in good faith on the budget with House Republicans as long as the debt ceiling is a separate matter.

The compromise might be to have a temporary debt ceiling increase to allow both to move forward together. Sadly, for McCarthy and the House Republicans, default seems to be preferable to compromise.

This is zero-sum politics with the highest stakes. At the end of the day, all paths lead to the same place: The US will need to find a way to pay the bills it has incurred as they mature.

The question is how much damage will have happened along the way.

Monday Wake Up Call – April 24, 2023

The Daily Escape:

Mountain Park in Globe, AZ – April 2023 photo by Karen Coffelt

(Earth Day was yesterday. Wrongo was at the first Earth Day on April 22, 1970 in NYC. Then-mayor John Lindsay closed Fifth Avenue from 59^th Street to 14^th Street. Nearly one million people marched downtown. It was an upbeat and friendly crowd. In July of 1970, Nixon established the Environmental Protection Agency by executive order.)

Today let’s return to talking politics. Axios had an interesting chart from Gallup on the distribution of voters by party preference:

We spend our days listening to politicians who’s Parties, individually, now represent a minority of Americans. This trend means there are serious challenges ahead for our two traditional Parties. It also adds some context to our evenly split politics.

Here’s an analysis of the vote share of independents by Party in recent elections: (the numbers do not total to 100% because voters who chose “another” or didn’t vote aren’t shown)

Interestingly, the Democrats have lost 10 points of independent support from 2020 to 2022, but the GOP only gained 1%. At the time, the Associated Press reported:

“Republican House candidates nationwide won the support of 38% of independent voters in last month’s [2022] midterm elections, VoteCast showed. That’s far short of the 51% that Democrats scored with the same group in 2018…picking up 41 seats. The GOP’s lackluster showing among independents helps explain why Republicans flipped just nine seats…”

Going back to the trends in the first chart, Axios reports that Gallup analyst Jeff Jones says a big reason for this change is driven by the younger generation:

“It was never unusual for younger adults to have higher percentages of independents than older adults….What is unusual is that as Gen X and millennials get older, they are staying independent rather than picking a party, as older generations tended to do.”

So who are these independents? Krystal Ball explains in a YouTube video that most of these “independents” are younger voters, millennials and Gen-Z. They’ve also stayed more disillusioned than their elders.

This means that the nation is evenly split between those who think that one of our two political parties is telling the absolute truth, while the 49% majority basically don’t trust either to have their back.

The question with independents is whether they are truly a part of some mythical center or if they are a segment (half) of the population that isn’t politicized, meaning they don’t believe they have a personal stake in elections.

Or are independents simply that half of the US electorate that just doesn’t bother to vote?

The American political system is dysfunctional. That’s making people opt for being independent rather than Democrat or Republican. They see the choice between the Parties as choosing between the red shit sandwich and the blue shit sandwich.

Time to wake up America! Democracy is our country’s feedback mechanism, but just 46.8% of us voted in the 2022 mid-terms. So it’s clear our current brand of democracy isn’t working. More of us need to vote, and that means we have to help our Parties change. We don’t need a third Party; we need our two Parties to reflect what grassroots America needs. More about this tomorrow.

To help you wake up, and in honor of Earth Day, watch and listen to Neil Young perform “After the Gold Rush”, live at the Shoreline Amphitheater in 1993. He’s playing a pump organ, which generates sound as air flows past the vibrating reeds. Also, he’s wearing Uggs:

Sample lyric:

Look at Mother Nature on the run In the twentieth century
Look at Mother Nature on the run In the twentieth century.

She’s still trying to outrun us 50 years later.

The Wrongologist

Geopolitics, Power and Political Economy

Category: Voter Turnout

Saturday Soother – July 22, 2023

Economic Illiteracy

Saturday Soother – July 8, 2023

July 4, 2023

Where Is The GOP’s War Of Words Taking Them?

Links You Can Use

Is Default Preferable To Compromise?