Tag: Shale Oil Boom

The Health Crisis Now Coincides With a Financial Crisis

The Daily Escape:

Sunrise, St. Augustine Beach, FL – March 2020 photo by Carl Gill

The WaPo reported that a Coronavirus-sparked oil war sent crude prices down on Sunday by 32.3%. That triggered a forced temporary halt of stock trading on Monday, when the S&P 500 index sank 7% shortly after the market’s opening.

This occurred on the 11thanniversary of the current bull market. But, as Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, wrote:

“The uncertain economic impact of coronavirus continues to grip markets, with stocks, commodities and interest rates all dropping sharply. Markets hate uncertainty and there is a ton of it currently in play.”

There is no question that there will be more angry Americans now that a health crisis coincides with a financial crisis. Who they focus their anger on remains to be seen. Trump took credit for each rise in the stock market, so will he take ownership now that it’s tanking?

He’s not a broadly popular president, and this will make him less popular, so fewer people will believe him when he tries to lay the blame on others.

The oil price plunge was triggered when Russia announced on Friday that it would no longer stay within the OPEC+ quotas after April 1st. Saudi Arabia then said it would slash prices for its customers in April. In addition, they hinted at increasing production from the current level of 9.7 million barrels per day to 10 million barrels per day.

This is the start of an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia over market share. But the real target for both may just be the US shale oil sector. US banks and other investors have been fueling the shale oil sector’s growth with hundreds of billions of dollars of loans over the years. And the shale oil producers keep ramping up production, despite it being largely unprofitable. They continue to burn through cash.

Brian Sullivan at CNBC warns us: The US oil industry valued its oil reserves, as collateral for its loans, at $60 a barrel. Today’s price is now about $30/barrel.

By sending some of these shale-oil companies into bankruptcy, Saudi Arabia and Russia are hoping that new money will refuse to support the US shale oil sector. Then production in the US will decline and take some oversupply out of the oil market.

Their timing is impeccable. Oil demand is down due in part to the Coronavirus. Chinese manufacturers are producing less and airlines in particular have less need for jet fuel. If OPEC and Russia increase production, and assuming US production still increases while demand globally is in steep decline, then global markets will be awash in oil.

And what does an oil glut do for Iran, already fighting a severe Coronavirus outbreak, and needing higher oil prices for their own economy?

But no worries! We can count on the competent leadership in the White House. And if that doesn’t make you comfortable, you might ask yourself, “Is this 1929 all over again?”

Maybe not, but if it is, who will be our FDR? In the 1930s and 1940s, FDR spent money on America’s democratic infrastructure. That money gave jobs to people. He created a social safety net, and allowed industry to again flourish.

But in the past 30 years, all the money has gone to our industrial infrastructure and to the rich, through tax cuts and subsidies. The easy money party has helped to pump up both stock prices and asset prices, giving us an ever-growing income and wealth gap.

What happens to the health of the people and to the health of economy between now and November is going to be a huge political concern. There’s always a tension between the best health policy, and the best economic policy.

Trump wants economic policy to win out, but the primary beneficiary of that is industry and the rich.

We should remember that when leaders are seen to be incompetent and/or ARE truly incompetent, they try to divert the voters’ attention. What Trump attempts to do in order to divert our attention, is worthy of discussion.

As of today, the fuse is lit. It’s an election year, and we know that Trump won’t go away quietly.

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Socializing The Losses: Part Infinity

The Wrongologist often writes about privatizing profits and socializing losses, a system where businesses and individuals can benefit from the profits earned by their business, while the public gets stuck with the consequences, the long-term bill. Governments all over America play into this, from doing deals to bring or keep jobs in the state, to underwriting the costs of sports areas, to building infrastructure when a new business comes to town.

Here is another object lesson in socializing the losses. Some towns in North Dakota (ND) are beginning to worry about the debt that they have incurred to build infrastructure to support the boom in shale oil production.

Oil Price reports that oil production in ND exploded in the past five years to well over a million barrels/day, making North Dakota the second largest oil producing state in the country. The likely fallout from the recent fall in oil prices may have serious financial side effects for ND’s towns.

Consider Williston, ND, a town in the center of the shale oil patch that finds itself planning for the worst. The town is deciding how to cope with $300 million in debt, money it borrowed to build infrastructure to meet the rapid growth of people and equipment working in the oil patch. That meant building new roads, schools, and a water-treatment plant, all of which were paid for by the city. The debt was expected to be repaid from increased sales and real estate taxes that suddenly may not be flowing into local and state coffers.

Williams County Commissioner Dan Kalil told NPR that he fears the town has overreached and won’t recover quickly, as global demand for oil is expected to grow slowly over the next few years, and shale oil prices may not bounce back to the mid-2014 levels. He may be correct. Production is down about 5% from its all-time high of 1.2 million barrels per day in December 2014. But more declines are expected with drillers pulling rigs and crews from the field. Rig counts in ND have fallen to 76, far below the 130 that state officials believe is needed to keep production flat.

And ND is experiencing the negative side effects of an oil boom. The huge increase in drilling brought a wave of cash and people to once sleepy towns, fueling a boom not only in oil, but also in crime, prostitution, and drug trafficking. Consider that Williston went from a population of 14,000 in the 2010 census to an estimated 24,000 in 2014.

On June 3rd, the US DOJ, in conjunction with ND’s Attorney General, announced the creation of a “strike force” that would target organized crime in the state. The effort is a direct response to the rise in crime in the shale oil field towns in ND and Montana, which has been fueled by:

Dramatic influxes in the population as well as serious crimes, including the importation of pure methamphetamine from Mexico and multi-million dollar fraud and environmental crimes.

Too many people, too much money, too little economic security in the local economy. The weak oil players pull out, and the debt, crime and now unemployment, remain. And the towns and state government have to sweep up after the companies go.

That’s not all. The boom/bust cycle makes estimating the future population of Williston difficult. How many kids and spouses of oil field workers will settle permanently in the area? Does the school district build, or stand pat? Will more classrooms be paid for by more taxes, or will they be a money loser? In a boom, most oil field workers are temporary; towns need permanent residents in order to build schools.

Even if a semblance of the oil boom returns, and Williston attracts more workers who come to stay, Dan Kalil fears another boom would mean even more people, traffic and crime.

So, who pays? The taxpayers. The people who don’t pull out when the companies leave. The people who stay have to cover the hole in the budget, and tolerate fewer services when the money guys hit the road. Williston isn’t Detroit, but in both cases, the little people are left holding the bag.

Once again, a town makes a long-term investment, hoping for a return down the road in the form of increased sales taxes and property tax revenues. They sacrifice quality of life, looking for a return in the form of more and better jobs, and better house values. They pay higher prices for most things.

On the other hand, Williston’s Walmart is hiring at $17/hour.

But when you think about it, that is now a subsistence wage in Williston.

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