wrongologist – Page 212 – The Wrongologist

Can Entrepreneurs Succeed in the Federal Government?

Have you ever heard of US Digital Services (USDS)? Neither had the Wrongologist before reading an interesting article in Fast Company, “Inside Obama’s Stealth Startup”, that describes how President Obama is recruiting top tech talent from companies like Google and Facebook. Their mission is to reboot how government works. Here is a first-person tidbit: (Brackets and editing by the Wrongologist)

Lisa Gelobter…got [a call] out of the blue last summer in New York, inviting her to some kind of roundtable discussion in Washington for tech leaders. Lisa had just spent time on the upper management teams at Hulu and BET. She decides, reluctantly, that she’ll go take the meeting, which includes this guy named Mikey as well as this other guy named Todd, and turns out to be in the Roosevelt Room in the West Wing. Then President Obama opens the door and surprises everyone, and over the course of 45 minutes gives the sales pitch…They need to come work for him. They will need to take a pay cut…But he doesn’t care what it takes—he will personally call their bosses, their spouses, their kids to convince them. The crowd laughs. But he gravely responds: I am completely serious. He needs them to overhaul the government’s digital infrastructure now.

‘What are you going to say to that?’ asks Lisa.

Todd and Mikey, the pair who helped bring people like Lisa Gelobter to DC are Todd Park, former chief technology officer of the US, and Mikey Dickerson, who led a team of 60 engineers at Google and supervised the crew that fixed the Healthcare.gov website last year.

Since that time, Park and Dickerson have been steadily recruiting a team of startup-savvy techies, mainly from top private-sector companies, and embedding them in agencies of the US government. Their purpose is to remake the digital systems by which government operates, to implement the kind of efficiency and agility and effectiveness that we admire at Silicon Valley’s biggest successes, across everything from the IRS to Immigration Services.

Dickerson has insights learned from the Healthcare.gov experience, which became an $800 million boondoggle, involving 55 contracting companies: (Emphasis by the Wrongologist)

And of course it didn’t work…They set aside hundreds of millions of dollars to build a website because it was a big, important website. But compare that to Twitter, which took three rounds of funding before it got to about the same number of users as Healthcare.gov—8 million to 10 million users. In those three rounds of funding, the whole thing added up to about $60 million.

OK, but Healthcare.gov may have been more complex than Twitter. Fast Company quotes President Obama regarding his big mistake in building Healthcare.gov:

When you’re dealing with IT and software and program design…It’s a creative process that can’t be treated the same way as a bulk purchase of pencils.

So, the Obama administration began USDS to recruit top tech talent to overhaul the government’s digital infrastructure. The point was not to sell these candidates on a career in government, but rather to enlist them in a stint of a year or two at USDS, or even a few months. For decades, lawyers and economists have worked in the capitol between private-sector jobs, so why not technologists? Fast Company quotes Megan Smith, the US chief technology officer:

What I think this does…is really provide a third option. In addition to joining a friend’s startup or a big company, there’s now Washington.

Fast Company reports that the idea of short-term government assignments by software entrepreneurs appeals to Mr. Obama, and that it was built into the USDS design from the start. Mr. Obama:

I’m having personal conversations with folks, meeting with them, or groups of them, and pitching them…And my pitch is that the tech community is more creative, more innovative, more collaborative and open to new ideas than any sector on earth…Is there a way for us to harness this incredible set of tools you’re developing for more than just cooler games or a quicker way for my teenage daughters to send pictures to each other?

Finally! Obama hits one nail on the head.

If the USDS team can successfully rebuild some of the digital infrastructure of Washington, it might not only change government’s functionality, it might transform Americans’ very poor attitudes about their government. And given our ideologically-riven Congress, success might just boost our citizens’ waning belief that America can return to a joint view of the future, but that’s a lot to ask of a group of techies.

Of course, if we have a GOP President and a GOP Congress starting in 2017, then it’ll be back to technology outsourcing, since understanding high tech and the internet is only for capitalists.

Socializing The Losses: Part Infinity

The Wrongologist often writes about privatizing profits and socializing losses, a system where businesses and individuals can benefit from the profits earned by their business, while the public gets stuck with the consequences, the long-term bill. Governments all over America play into this, from doing deals to bring or keep jobs in the state, to underwriting the costs of sports areas, to building infrastructure when a new business comes to town.

Here is another object lesson in socializing the losses. Some towns in North Dakota (ND) are beginning to worry about the debt that they have incurred to build infrastructure to support the boom in shale oil production.

Oil Price reports that oil production in ND exploded in the past five years to well over a million barrels/day, making North Dakota the second largest oil producing state in the country. The likely fallout from the recent fall in oil prices may have serious financial side effects for ND’s towns.

Consider Williston, ND, a town in the center of the shale oil patch that finds itself planning for the worst. The town is deciding how to cope with $300 million in debt, money it borrowed to build infrastructure to meet the rapid growth of people and equipment working in the oil patch. That meant building new roads, schools, and a water-treatment plant, all of which were paid for by the city. The debt was expected to be repaid from increased sales and real estate taxes that suddenly may not be flowing into local and state coffers.

Williams County Commissioner Dan Kalil told NPR that he fears the town has overreached and won’t recover quickly, as global demand for oil is expected to grow slowly over the next few years, and shale oil prices may not bounce back to the mid-2014 levels. He may be correct. Production is down about 5% from its all-time high of 1.2 million barrels per day in December 2014. But more declines are expected with drillers pulling rigs and crews from the field. Rig counts in ND have fallen to 76, far below the 130 that state officials believe is needed to keep production flat.

And ND is experiencing the negative side effects of an oil boom. The huge increase in drilling brought a wave of cash and people to once sleepy towns, fueling a boom not only in oil, but also in crime, prostitution, and drug trafficking. Consider that Williston went from a population of 14,000 in the 2010 census to an estimated 24,000 in 2014.

On June 3rd, the US DOJ, in conjunction with ND’s Attorney General, announced the creation of a “strike force” that would target organized crime in the state. The effort is a direct response to the rise in crime in the shale oil field towns in ND and Montana, which has been fueled by:

Dramatic influxes in the population as well as serious crimes, including the importation of pure methamphetamine from Mexico and multi-million dollar fraud and environmental crimes.

Too many people, too much money, too little economic security in the local economy. The weak oil players pull out, and the debt, crime and now unemployment, remain. And the towns and state government have to sweep up after the companies go.

That’s not all. The boom/bust cycle makes estimating the future population of Williston difficult. How many kids and spouses of oil field workers will settle permanently in the area? Does the school district build, or stand pat? Will more classrooms be paid for by more taxes, or will they be a money loser? In a boom, most oil field workers are temporary; towns need permanent residents in order to build schools.

Even if a semblance of the oil boom returns, and Williston attracts more workers who come to stay, Dan Kalil fears another boom would mean even more people, traffic and crime.

So, who pays? The taxpayers. The people who don’t pull out when the companies leave. The people who stay have to cover the hole in the budget, and tolerate fewer services when the money guys hit the road. Williston isn’t Detroit, but in both cases, the little people are left holding the bag.

Once again, a town makes a long-term investment, hoping for a return down the road in the form of increased sales taxes and property tax revenues. They sacrifice quality of life, looking for a return in the form of more and better jobs, and better house values. They pay higher prices for most things.

On the other hand, Williston’s Walmart is hiring at $17/hour.

But when you think about it, that is now a subsistence wage in Williston.

Monday Wake Up Call – June 15, 2015

You may vaguely remember that President Obama went to the Tomb of the Unknowns’ on Memorial Day. You probably don’t remember that he said:

Today is the first Memorial Day in 14 years that the United States is not engaged in a major ground war.

Yet, just two weeks later, he sent more “advisers” to Iraq. This will bring the number of US locations in Iraq to five. Mr. Obama and his own advisers continue to believe that the US should defeat or degrade ISIS in Iraq without significant help of Iran and the Shi’ite militias.

Most of Washington’s foreign policy establishment is pushing Obama to “win” in Iraq. To do that, he must exercise at least as much influence with Baghdad as Iran. He must keep a US-friendly leadership in power, and keep the Iraqi military engaging ISIS outside of Baghdad.

Obama’s decision to locate a new base in Anbar province between Ramadi and Fallujah conforms to the FP establishment’s program. The new location only makes sense if American troops are there for some kind of combat role. If they were only going to Iraq to train Sunnis, (the stated role), it could be located anywhere in the country. But, as the Wrongologist has reported, the new advisers will be stationed at Taqqadum, an Iraqi base near the city of Habbaniya, where they will act as a trip-wire for ISIS advances.

Add to this what General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last week about creating a string of “lily pads”, American military bases around Iraq:

You could see [them] in the corridor from Baghdad to Tikrit to Kirkuk to Mosul.

General Dempsey acknowledged that such sites would require many more troops than those already authorized by Mr. Obama. Unfortunately, it didn’t work against the Taliban in Afghanistan, so a good question is why it will work in Iraq. The “lily pad” idea will increase the already high likelihood that the American forces will soon be shooting, and being shot at. This means Gen. Dempsey is suggesting an open-ended American presence in Iraq engaging an open-ended insurgency by ISIS. Any decision to plant additional lily pads will certainly require more US troops in Iraq.

Wake up America, these DC Hawks will never end the war in the Middle East. To bring you gently into consciousness, here is another spring visitor to the fields of Wrong, the Magnolia Warbler:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_dm5InFg1g

If you read the Wrongologist in email, you can view the video here.

Monday’s Hot Links:
Homosexual mounting is a common behavior in bed bugs as male sexual interest is directed towards any newly fed individual. Mounted males discharge alarm pheromones, while mounting males consider the alarm signal a major sex identification cue, suggesting that male bed bugs use alarm pheromone communication to avoid homosexual harassment and mounting. Who funds this crap??

Disney World upped their prices to get in to $125. But it’s the cross-selling that takes the Disney experience to a new price level. Their Bibbidi Bobbidi Boutiques sell a $195 pampering for little girls that includes a makeover, hair-styling, a costume and a princess sash. Sounds like some Wall Street Dad’s idea. Not judging, people can spend their $$ however they want.

Costco has surpassed Whole Foods to become the biggest organic grocer, selling more than $4 billion last year. That means more than 1 out of every 10 dollars in organic food sales are made at a Costco since trade association estimates of the total market are ~$36 billion. But you have to buy a bushel of organic mangoes when you want just one.

The number of people killed by police in the United States during 2015 reached 500 last week, according to The Guardian. The updated findings means that the total is on track to exceed 1,000 by the end of 2015 – and that people are being killed by officers at more than twice the rate most recently detected by the much-criticized FBI system, which recorded 461 killed in 2013.

The Onion said the US has run out of options and that continued intervention will only prolong the US’s suffering. Experts say the best course of action is to keep the US as comfortable as possible until the end. Here is a quote:

We need to accept the fact that the US doesn’t have long—simply helping it pass that time in comfort is the humane thing to do…letting it meet its end naturally is the merciful decision here.

Totally agree. Put us out of our misery. Please.

Sunday Cartoon Blogging – June 14, 2015

Let’s talk taxes. Specifically, let’s focus on a Republican governor, Jindal of Louisiana. Louisiana faced a massive shortfall ($1.6 billion) due to the fact they are governed by Bobby Jindal and a bunch of Republicans who can’t admit that they are raising taxes because otherwise, Grover Norquist will get angry at them. From the NYT:

With less than two hours left in the 2015 session, Louisiana legislators agreed Thursday on a solution to the worst budget shortfall in decades, approving a funding arrangement that drew bipartisan criticism

The legislators had looked at raising taxes, but Jindal said that he would veto anything that violated his pledge to Norquist. The big losers if no deal was reached would have been public education and health care.

So, the governor consulted with Americans for Tax Reform, the Washington anti-tax advocacy group led by Norquist, and came up with a complicated plan that was an accounting fiction, in order to solve the budget crisis.

• The plan obligated $350 million of the revenue raised during the session to higher education, thus preventing cuts
• That was augmented by an “assessment” of $1,600 per student on the state’s public college students
• Nobody would actually pay the assessment because students would also be granted a tax credit against that assessment
• The student’s tax credit, in turn, would be transferred to the state Board of Regents, the body that runs higher education

The board would then use the credit to draw money from the Department of Revenue. It’s confusing, and not just to the accounting-challenged. But, under the plan, no one’s tax burden went up or down, which allowed the Louisiana Legislature to raise the cigarette tax by 50 cents a pack, increase costs for businesses by reducing a variety of tax credits and raise fees on car buyers and other Louisianians.

Lawmakers have called the provision everything from “money laundering” to “stupid,” and that was just the Republicans. Robert Travis Scott, president of the nonpartisan Public Affairs Research Council of Louisiana said:

There is no way you can explain that it’s an offset…This is a vehicle that allows Governor Jindal to raise taxes, period.

The fact that Norquist helped Republicans in Louisiana figure out a way around HIS OWN PLEDGE tells you that this “no new taxes” nonsense has become simply theater. Now Jindal can run for president with Norquist’s blessing. Isn’t that nice?

On to cartoons. The big news of the week included the Trade Fast Track fail, sending more troops to Iraq, and a new Jurassic Park movie.

Fast Track is side tracked:

The same old Iraq strategy reappeared:

With predictable results:

New Jurassic movie brought out new GOP creatures:

Like Jurassic movies, STEM in Congress creates BIG problems:

More Iraq??

We have solved nothing in 12 years in Iraq. As Tony Wikrent says at Naked Capitalism,

The sheer imbecility of American leaders is brought into glaring light [by] Bush’s attempt at the transformation of Iraq from among the Middle East’s most repressive states to a multiparty democracy.

As Col Lang says, we own it [Iraq], but cannot fix it.

So naturally, we will send more troops there in the next month or so. And to a new location. This will bring American troop levels to 3,500 since we left Iraq in 2011. The air base where the additional US forces are to deploy is al-Taqqadum, which sits about halfway between ISIS positions in Ramadi, about 40 kilometers (24 miles) to the west, and Fallujah, to the east.

Pat Lang reminds us that al-Taqqadum was originally a British air force base called RAF Habbaniya, which later became an Iraqi air force base. It had been abandoned for a long time when US forces occupied it in March, 2003. We initially called it Forward Operating Base (FOB) Ridgway before settling on the more Iraqi-friendly Camp Taqqadum in 2004. Pat Lang on our plans:

Former RAF Habbaniya was the center of the…British presence in Iraq. Look at the pictures of chapels, cemeteries, and swimming pools for the British troops… Habbaniya is the place we will defend and try to make Sunni tribesmen and Shia cowards into fighters? The omens for this are not good.

Think about it: It is an airfield we know well and maintained for years, but it’s only 24 miles from the ISIS lines. We are by design putting our newest effort right where the enemy could take out our planes and our soldiers. Makes you think that it is a trip wire of sorts, leading to a large re-deployment to Iraq when ISIS crosses our wire. We will have to fortify and defend this place very heavily. Otherwise, ISIS will see it as a place to engage us directly in battle.

Da Nang anybody?

The idea behind the new site is to provide greater support for Sunni tribal fighters, who have yet to receive all of the backing and arms promised by the Shiite-led government. But there may be a glitch. The Guardian quotes Mr. Obama at the close of the G7 summit, saying that there were not enough recruits to train:

We’ve got more training capacity than we’ve got recruits…It’s not happening as fast as it needs to.

The Guardian also quoted Hisham al-Hashimi, an Iraqi scholar and expert on ISIS that:

Only 1,100 Sunnis had taken part in the US training program, and none of them have graduated from it. In total, about 9,500 fighters have completed the training.

Washington wants to revive the “Sunni Awakening” strategy that we used in 2007 when large numbers of Sunni tribal fighters joined with US troops to help defeat al Qaeda in Iraq. Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki promised us that he would incorporate the Sunni fighters into Iraq’s standing security forces and pay them regular salaries, but failed to do so, sparking the sectarian anger across Anbar Province that left some Sunni tribal leaders amenable to working with ISIS.

Mr. Obama originally said that we did not have a strategy, now, a year later, he sends an additional 450 troops to train Iraqi recruits that he himself says don’t exist. The Wrongologist has supported President Obama, however, this has the makings of a fool’s errand.

Why do we keep talking about training Iraqis to fight? The evidence shows that lots of Iraqis already know how to fight, and many of them are fighting very effectively against the very government that America installed.

This is almost like early days in Vietnam. We dribbled in more and more advisers and support. But it’s not what’s in the hands of the soldiers, it’s what’s in their hearts, and we have no control over that.

The NYT says this will cost us $8 million per week, or $47,619.05 per hour, which is more than many people earn in one year. Do the American people want their tax dollars spent in this way? When our infrastructure is falling apart? When our kids have to take out onerous loans to go to college? When Social Security, which we paid for, is under threat from the right side of the aisle?

Thomas P. M. Barnett has advised US leaders on national security since the end of the Cold War, including the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, Central Command and Special Operations Command. Barnett said in a TED talk:

We field a 1st half team in a league that insists on keeping score until the end of the game

Barnett is correct. We have not learned how to play the 2nd half in Iraq.

Turkey’s March Towards an Islamist Presidency Stalls

Results from Turkey’s parliamentary elections Sunday show that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP party lost its majority in Parliament.

With 99.9+% percent of the vote counted, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) garnered the support of 41% of voters. That would give it some 258 seats – 18 below the minimum needed to keep its majority. In 2011, the AK Party received 49% of the vote, 8 points higher than in 2015. This is the first time the AKP fell short of a majority since it came into power in 2002.

The election was widely perceived as a referendum on Erdogan’s plan to change the Turkish constitution in order to grant himself sweeping, unprecedented presidential powers. Because Erdogan’s record shows tendencies toward authoritarianism, many observers in Turkey and outside believed that his proposed constitutional amendments would not just change the structure of Turkish democracy, but pose an existential threat to it.

Erdogan began the campaign asking voters for 400 seats, which would have allowed the party to change the role of the presidency unilaterally. The AK Party needed 330 seats of the total 550 to call for a national referendum to change the constitution, but they stalled at 258, so that will lead to a coalition government, and no immediate ability to change the Turkish constitution.

The Kurdish HDP, now the first Kurdish party ever to be seated in Turkey’s parliament, won 80 seats. Most westerners like the Kurds, for their resistance around Mosul in Iraq and around Kobani in Syria. They also support women’s rights and gay rights. Kurds are the Muslims who are closest to western values. From BBC: Who are the HDP?

• The HDP was founded as a pro-Kurdish party in 2012
• There are 15million Kurds in Turkey, 20% of the population
• It had the only openly gay candidate in Turkey’s elections
• A higher proportion of women ran for the HDP than any other party

Here is an election results map from the Daily Hurriyet:

Voter turnout was 85%. The map shows the AKP in orange, the CHP party in red and the HDP in purple. It is clear that the HDP made its gains in southeast Turkey, the area most at risk in the ISIS and Syrian uprisings. HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas called his party’s showing:

A fabulous victory for peace and freedoms…As of now the discussions on a presidential system, a dictatorship, has come to an end

The Daily Star reported on the dilemma Erdogan faces. Under the current constitution, the president position (that Erdogan now holds) has limited powers. He campaigned to change the constitution, but the election’s result could leave Erdogan stranded in the presidency without the powers he sought. Bottom line: While Erdogan’s plan for Islamic presidentialism has been defeated, the AKP is still in control of Turkish politics — and likely will remain that way for a long time.

The reasons for the loss seem mostly driven by the Turkish economy and Erdogan’s policies on Syria. For the past decade or so, the AKP has ridden high on a dynamic record of promoting economic growth. But recently, the economy has been slowing down. The Turkish lira has lost considerable value, the economy has not grown anywhere near the rate that it had in the past, and there are worries about an economic collapse. And many were afraid of Erdogan’s plan for deepening Turkish involvement in Syria, Iraq and the greater Middle East.

Today, Erdogan is a wounded politician, and the AKP is weakened. This will lead to infighting within the AKP and maybe even a split of the party into several factions. In all this result will likely leave less capacity in Turkey for adventures in Syria and Egypt, or with ISIS and the AL-Qaeda affiliated Al-Nusra front.

As the Guardian said:

None of the four parties in the new parliament are able to form a single-party government, meaning Turkey is entering a period of volatility. Erdogan approaches politics as a binary contest between winners and losers in which the decisive aim is to secure a majority. On Sunday he lost…

The country had been sliding into an Islamic autocracy under the guise of democracy, but the Turkish electorate have called a halt to that.

Technology Isn’t Creating Enough Middle Class Jobs

Yesterday we talked about how America is losing middle class jobs to technical outsourcing on our way to becoming a land of spreadsheets and flags. Today, let’s discuss another aspect of that; how technology continues to cost more and more mid-skilled jobs. We usually think of technology as a great panacea, making most of our processes more efficient. In fact, many of us can look back on the “sneakernet” of the 1980s and feel good about how far we’ve come with technology.

But technology has also reduced the number of middle class workers required, at a time when American wages are stagnant and benefits are falling for the remaining available jobs.

The meme used to be that if technology replaced workers, new jobs came along and net-net, more people were employed. Although things weren’t that simple, by 1900 if you were displaced, you could get another job because 99% of all jobs were still done only by humans.

Today corporations tell us that the knowledge economy can take as many workers as we can create, and since we can’t create them fast enough, technology firms need more of the H-1B visas we discussed yesterday. This is false. Facebook is touted as a prime player in the knowledge economy, but it only employs 5,800 to service 1 billion customers! Twitter has 400 million total users. It has 2,300 employees.

What is the value of Facebook and Twitter to the jobs economy? These are two of our very “best” success stories, and they only employ 8,100 workers. They have had a huge impact on society, but the total jobs they have created are only a rounding error in our economy.

Much of what we want to buy is produced in factories increasingly run with robots, and maintained and operated by small cadres of engineers. Increased sales of iPhones only add a few sales jobs at $12/hour in the US and not many new factory jobs in China. Also, keep in mind that globally, some 3 billion people are looking for work and the vast majority are willing to work for less than the average American.

We all know that technology is costing jobs, and by some estimates it could cost half of all current jobs in the next 20 years. So, we can expect an ever-greater number of unemployed chasing an ever-shrinking number of jobs that can’t be eliminated or simplified by technology. Thus, the prognosis for many medium and some higher-skilled workers appears grim. With this being said, technology is benefiting a lot of businesses and the way they operate. You’ll get a better understanding of it just by reading these Quotes about AI. Seeing as technology doesn’t look like it is going anywhere anytime soon, we might as well use it to our advantage in a business.

The oligarchs have seen these forecasts. That may explain their unwillingness to do anything serious to create effective jobs programs here at home. They don’t need to do anything, because there is a (virtually) infinite supply of skilled and unskilled workers in the overpopulated third world.

The issue is not technology, or robots, or restoring our manufacturing base. Nor is the issue better skills, or technology or outsourcing. We have too many people chasing too few good jobs.

Incomes will continue to stagnate, because automation does not threaten unskilled jobs. This is sometimes called “Moravec’s Paradox”, which says that, contrary to traditional assumptions, high-level reasoning requires relatively little computation, but low-level sensorimotor skills require enormous computational resources. The “Roomba” robotic vacuum cleaner is, despite years of development, just an expensive toy. It has had zero impact on the market for janitors and maids, yet, wages for American janitors and maids have fallen because of competition from the currently unemployed and newly arrived immigrants. While the Roomba aims to be a forward-looking cleaning solution, it still cannot compete with the manual vacuum cleaners, like Bissell’s, that still prove to be the preferred choice despite innovative attempts to move towards automation. See this link for Bissell vacuum cleaners – https://www.bissell.com/vacuums/upright-vacuum-cleaners/

If we forecast continuing technology breakthroughs (and we should), and combine that with the 3 billion people currently looking for work globally, we have to conclude that the planet is overpopulated if the goal is a growing global middle class.

This is why the quest for better technology has become the enemy of sustaining middle class growth in the developed world.

Monday Wake Up Call – May 8, 2015

“Ethics is knowing the difference between what you can do and what you should do.” – Justice Potter Stewart

It looks like Scrooge McDuck runs human resources at Disney. Disney World laid off 250 tech workers, who were American programmers and computer operators that have been replaced by Indian techies with H-1B visas. The techs were supplied by HCL America, an Indian outsourcing firm.

H-1B visas are intended for high-level professionals who, in concept, fill jobs for which no Americans are available. 85,000 of these visas are granted each year, and they are in high demand. Technology giants like Microsoft, Facebook and Google repeatedly press Congress to add to the annual quotas, saying there are not enough Americans with the skills they need.

In Disney’s case, the Americans were not only available, they were actually working in the jobs.

The H-1B visa program has been great for tech innovation, and the Wrongologist supports it, but this is an egregious abuse of the corporate right to employment at will, and of the spirit of the H-1B visa laws. From the NY Times:

The chairman of the Walt Disney Company, Robert A. Iger, is a co-chairman with Michael R. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York, and Rupert Murdoch, the executive chairman of News Corporation, in the Partnership for a New American Economy, which pushes for an overhaul of immigration laws, including an increase in H-1B visas.

Companies speak a lot about teamwork, esprit de corps, and group identity, all in the context of helping the company reach its goals. But the Disney lesson is that we’re really good at ignoring those lofty ideals, while driving an anti-employee, mean-spirited chase of a marginal dollar of profit.

If employers really need a foreign employee resource, they should be charged an annual fee of $50K for each H1-B visa they use. For truly unusual skills, it would be worth the fee. For Disney, who is just looking to buy labor for a few dollars less than the going rate for American citizens, it would remove the economic advantage. We need to ask our corporations to stop defending the indefensible.

Republicans shout from the mountaintops about illegal immigrants, while on the other hand, they are quite willing to add to the numbers of H-1B visas, immigration of a kind. Furthermore, H-1Bs allow for chain migration (kids and spouses) as well, and thanks to new rules, H-1B spouses can work as well.

Time to wake up America! Disney’s H-1B’s are the first step in a process. They have been brought in by Disney so that they can gain the experience to manage Disney’s IT operation. And some time down the road, Disney’s Florida HCL people will work with HCL’s India-based IT workers, allowing Disney to move most of their IT operation over there at a fraction of the cost that Disney pays here.

Corporatism has inverted Henry Ford’s mantra to pay his workers enough to afford his cars. The new mantra is, pay only a few employees enough to afford your goods, and let the government worry about the rest of them.

America has to be more than a spreadsheet and a flag.

Today’s wake-up is another in our spring bird collection. It is the Orchard Oriole, the smallest of North America’s orioles, it builds hanging, pouch like nests during its breeding season. We get both the Baltimore Orioles and these guys in Mid-May:

For those who read the Wrongologist in email, you can view the video here.

Monday’s Hot Links:

The Wall Street Journal had a blog post open letter to consumers asking why consumers didn’t spend more money. Imagine their concern, since mean US family income is stuck at the same level as in the late 1990s. Remember that the WSJ supports the TPP trade legislation, like the last deal that outsourced millions of middle class jobs. Please, WSJ, go back to talking to companies, and leave consumers alone.

A list of the top 50 restaurants in the world. 5 are in the US. Wrongo and Ms. Right are going to #49 later this month.

In a stunning discovery that overturns decades of textbook teaching, researchers at the University Of Virginia School Of Medicine have found that the brain is directly connected to the immune system.

Owning a home no longer plays the same role in the lives of Americans that it has in the past. And it is clear that many middle-income Americans cannot realistically aspire to become homeowners anytime soon. A recent survey conducted by the American Institute of CPA’s found that most Americans are now more concerned about having enough money to retire than about becoming a homeowner.

China has 30,000 tons of gold, (which is almost more gold than the rest of the world’s central banks, combined). It’s also important to make explicit that the Chinese are slowly laying the groundwork for it to take over the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency sometime in the future.

Chinese state media has warned that war with the US may be “inevitable.” Beijing published a policy paper detailing how its military will shift its focus from land and coastlines to the open seas. They criticized “external countries…busy meddling in South China Sea affairs. The money quote:

We do not want a military conflict with the United States, but if it were to come we have to accept it.

Sunday Cartoon Blogging – June 7, 2015

This week, mass surveillance by the USA Freedom act replaced mass surveillance by the Patriot Act.

It’s as if Kafka and Orwell collaborated on a novel that was too unrealistic to publish. The plot shows how the NSA operates a $multi-billion program in violation of the Constitution. But, EVERY element of that program is protected by national security secrecy, so no one knows about it. In addition, the managers of the program lie to Congress and hide the extent of the program from lawmakers.

Then an NSA contractor informs us that the illegal program exists. As the story unfolds, the contractor is pursued, is forced into asylum, and faces prosecution if he returns home. And he can’t use the fact of that illegal program to defend himself because of state secrecy. Here is Charlie Pierce on the new legislation:

The ambivalence about Edward Snowden, International Man of Luggage, all clears away at one simple point — without him, none of this happens. Without what he did, nobody looks closely enough at the NSA and its surveillance programs even to think of reforming them even in the mildest way, which is pretty much what this is. Without what he did, the conversation not only doesn’t change, it doesn’t even occur.

Without Edward Snowden, this timid effort to roll back from the politics of fear created in the wake of September 11, 2001 would not have happened last week in Washington. Instead of thanking Snowden for his public service and inviting him to come home, the US government is still seeking to arrest him and try him on charges that carry long prison sentences. Bring this hero home.

Is the new Act the same, or better than the old act?

Apparently, phone records were not covered by the founding fathers:

You didn’t lose your privacy, it was transferred to Squillionaires:

In other news, Caitlyn Jenner dominated:

Denny Hastert’s indictment reminded us of who holds the moral high ground:

And California’s water problems get executive attention:

Where Are The Activists?

And why aren’t they out in the streets? Why isn’t every bank office, and every legislature, “occupied?”

The NYT reported on their NYT/CBS News poll on income inequality. It found that Americans are broadly concerned about inequality of wealth and income despite the improving economy. Among the findings:

Nearly six in 10 Americans said government should do more to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor.

Inequality is no longer a partisan issue. The poll found that inequality is important to almost half of Republicans and two-thirds of independents, suggesting that it is likely to be a central theme in next year’s general election. We are already seeing populist appeals by politicians of both parties who are trying to capitalize on the sense among Americans that the economic recovery benefited only a handful at the very top.

Sadly, the surveillance society has changed the costs and benefits of protests. The Occupy movement was crushed with a coordinated 17 city paramilitary crackdown. In this day of background checks as a condition to get a job, a misdemeanor arrest for protesting can make you unemployable. You can find yourself on any one of a variety of official lists that cannot be challenged because of secrecy laws; there are sham arrests like those conducted at Occupy Wall Street or, at the NYC Republican convention in 2004 by then-Mayor Bloomberg.

And the financial services industry seems to be able to get cops to come in and round up people on their behalf.

It is not enough to gather in the street. Once you are there and gathered, it must lead somewhere, there must be a goal. Admittedly, the problem with activism is that the fight is to change perceptions and narratives, and progress toward those goals is slow, and rarely concrete and visible.

It’s astonishing today to see how Americans have been conditioned to think that political action and engagement is futile. The Wrongologist was a demonstrator when the reverse occurred, when activism in the 1960s produced significant advances in civil rights for blacks and women, and eventually led the US to exit the Vietnam War. But today, when activism is an option, quite a few argue that there is no point in making the effort, that we as individuals are powerless. Yet, what Richard Kline wrote about protest in 2010 still applies:

The nut of the matter is this: you lose, you lose, you lose, you lose, and [then] they give up. As someone who has protested, and studied the process, it’s plain that one spends most of one’s time being defeated. That’s painful, humiliating, and intimidating. One can’t expect typically, as in a battle, to get a clean shot at a clear win.

What activism does is change the context, and that change moves the goalposts on your opponent. It also raises the political price for governments that make bad decisions. Demonstrations helped stop LBJ and Nixon from making a few bad decisions. The same principle could apply to the Conservative’s desire to kneecap Social Security, Medicare and Obamacare while they hand out more baubles to their rich friends. This kind of class inequality is deeply un-American, but it has big political benefactors in both parties.

We can’t use the protests of the 1960s as a model in today’s political environment. Back then, power feared the people. Power feared the people because there was a free press to publicize and record events. The White House press confronted presidents; they didn’t pander, or act as stenographers as they do now.

That no longer exists. The press has been destroyed by corporate consolidation and foreign ownership. Investigative reporting and the institutions that nurtured and supported it were alive and well.

In the 1960s, few local politicians would refuse a permit for a peaceful demonstration, if in fact, a permit was even required. That is no longer true. No permit, no demo. The arrogance of power is demonstrated repeatedly right in front of cameras and reporters; the police harass and provoke, restrain and intimidate at peaceful demonstrations. They also create incidents to blame on demonstrators, which are dutifully captured by the cameras.

If one unit of protest worked in 1965, we need 10 units today to achieve similar results. In the meantime, reflect on this quote from a noted demonstrator:

“When the idea is a sound one, the cause a just one, and the demonstration a righteous one, change will be forthcoming”–Martin Luther King, Jr.

See you on Sunday.

The Wrongologist

Geopolitics, Power and Political Economy

Author: wrongologist