The Wrongologist – Geopolitics, Power and Political Economy

Greenland Says “No” To Vance

The Daily Escape:

“Musk-Trump inherited a state with unprecedented power and functionality, and are taking it apart. They also inherited a set of alliances and relationships that underpinned the largest economy in world history. This too they are breaking.”

JD Vance along with his wife, visited an American base in Greenland for three hours. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and his wife also came along. The context was Trump’s claim that America must take Greenland, which is an autonomous region of Denmark.

While there, the Americans’ Greenland charm offensive mission failed, and JD signaled the end of NATO.

At the base, in the far north of the island, the American visitors had pictures taken and ate lunch with servicemen and servicewomen. They used the base as the backdrop to a press conference where nothing sensible was said. Vance, who never left the base, and has never before visited Greenland, was quite sure how Greenlanders should live. He made a political appeal to Greenlanders, none of whom was present. He claimed that Denmark was not protecting the security of Greenlanders in the Arctic, and that the US would. Greenland should therefore join the United States.

From Jon V Last:

“NATO is dead. It has been obvious since November 5 that the alliance was not viable in the long run, but it was able to continue in zombie-form for five months.

Vance’s appearance in Greenland last week was the stake through its heart.

It is one thing for American leadership to relentlessly criticize its allies.

It is another thing for America to openly side with Russia against European interests.

But to stand on European soil and talk about taking territory from a treaty ally is something else altogether.”

After Trump’s election Wrongo thought it was possible to believe that America would become indifferent to the NATO countries. It’s now clear that the US sees at least some of these former allies as prey. There can be no mistake about this.

So what would a serious European response look like?

It starts with nuclear weapons. Europe needs more of them. The best way to protect the EU is to protect Denmark. And the best way to protect Denmark is to push closer to North America and make it clear to the US that it cannot operate with impunity even in its near-abroad, let alone on the European continent.

It will be difficult for a non-nuclear power to make an independent dash to nuclear capability. But the British and French have respectable pre-existing nuclear forces. Between them, they possess about 515 nuclear warheads. The British nukes are entirely submarine-based. The French forces are split between ballistic-missile subs and air-launched cruise missiles.

The obvious solution is the creation of a separate Anglo-French nuclear umbrella that is extended to EU nations, including Greenland. Once this nuclear umbrella has been formally extended, the European nations can then backfill various military needs. Here’s military affairs professor James Cameron:

“A new generation of conventional precision-strike systems should supplement the Anglo-French nuclear forces. Non-nuclear allies such as Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, and the Nordic states could provide such systems, possibly through joint production. . . . Coordination of these nuclear and non-nuclear efforts should be institutionalized in a European equivalent of the existing NATO Nuclear Planning Group, in which France does not currently participate.”

While they’re at it, the British and the French ought to offer to bring Canada under their protection.

That NATO is dead as an American-led alliance doesn’t mean that NATO can’t default to becoming an EU-led alliance + Turkey. If Wrongo were one of the core Eurozone nations (UK, Germany, France), he would be looking at bringing Canada, Australia, and New Zealand into the fold since the US is no longer a reliable partner.

GOP Very Concerned About Florida Special Election

The Daily Escape:

While Mike Waltz bumbles about in Washington, the special election for his old Congressional seat is drawing near: Floridians will go to the polls on April 1. That race was supposed to be a layup for Republicans, but some of them are starting to get pretty stressed about it.

In November, Waltz won his district by 33 points. But a new poll from St. Pete’s Polls in Florida has the race between Republican Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil within the margin of error. From Axios:

“Private GOP polling is even scarier for Republicans: A recent survey by Tony Fabrizio, who was a chief strategist for Trump in 2024, has Fine with just a three percentage point lead, according to a person familiar with the data.”

Per Florida Politics: (brackets by Wrongo)

“The results [in the St. Pete’s Polls] show Fine winning just over 48% of the vote, while Weil received just over 44%. The poll of 403 likely voters in CD 6 was conducted on March 22. Pollsters report a 4.9% margin of error, greater than Fine’s lead.”

It’s a tiny poll, meaning the results could go either way.

Axios also reported that among those polled who said they already voted, more than half supported the Democrat. Weil leads 51% to 43% among those whose decision has already been made via a mail-in ballot or in-person early voting. According to the survey, about 38% of likely voters have already cast their ballots in the race.

That means Fine will have to make up the difference with those who vote between now and the close of polls on Tuesday, if he intends to move into Congress. He has already submitted an irrevocable resignation letter from the Florida Senate to run.

Weil has also outraised Fine by a lot, hauling in almost $10 million—a large sum for such a small race.

Link that news up with Trump pulling Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) nomination as UN Ambassador after last-minute panic about Fine’s electoral chances. More from Axios:

“Stefanik has waited for months on her nomination due to the House GOP’s tiny margin. The Florida special elections are Tuesday, but the administration has gotten cold feet about its margin ahead of crucial votes.”

Stefanik’s nomination as UN Ambassador was expected to move forward on Wednesday, April 2 — the day after the Florida specials, when the GOP would have added one seat to its slim majority. Stefanik had at least some bipartisan support in the Senate before the administration’s moves to completely dismantle the US Agency for International Development without any Congressional input or authorization. In response, some Democrats have subsequently vowed to block all Trump nominees for key foreign policy posts. This could gum up the works for a Senate confirmation for Trump’s next UN pick even if it turns out to be Stefanik.

Politico reports that for the past several months:

“Stefanik had held briefing sessions to dive deep on pressing international policy issues from China to the war in Sudan, according to three people familiar with the conversations. She also dispatched some of her closest aides in her congressional office to jobs at the State Department, including her deputy chief of staff…in preparation for her being confirmed as Trump’s UN envoy.”

Eventually Stefanik will leave the House, but It’s unclear if the Florida race is a harbinger for a tough midterm election cycle for Republicans, or just another case of a bad candidate screwing up a winnable situation.

Trump Extorts Big Law Firm

The Daily Escape:

From Charlie Sykes:

“…I regret to tell you that the Great Grovel continues — as Big Law, universities, and the media join the feverish scramble of fear and favor, principle be damned. They tell themselves that collective resistance is futile and that surrender in advance will protect them from Trumpist revenge….Over the weekend, Columbia University yielded to the Trump Administration’s demands; and the law firm of Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison caved to his threats.”

(The firm is usually referred to as Paul, Weiss).

The firm, which had revenue last year of more than $2.6 billion, agreed to represent clients of any political affiliation and donate a staggering $40 million in pro bono work to support Trump’s agenda.

If that sounds like giving Trump control over how the firm chooses at least some of its clients and causes it supports, that’s exactly what Paul, Weiss did.

They agreed to these conditions to get Trump to rescind his executive order (EO) suspending security clearances for firm employees, restricting their access to federal buildings, and instructing agency heads to limit employee contact with the firm. Those restrictions would have seriously compromised the firm’s ability to handle cases related to government employees or government matters.

But when you negotiate with an extortionist, the game never ends. Predictably, Paul, Weiss’s surrender triggered an even more aggressive and toxic attack on the legal profession by Trump.

Andrew Weissman offered this warning: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“The concerted attacks on lawyers, law firms, and judges. are coordinated strategy to discredit and intimidate legal actors who dare to challenge the Trump administration. At stake is preservation of the ability of our legal system to function without fear or favor. When lawyers are targeted for representing unpopular clients, and judges face threats for upholding the law, we risk undoing the very prerequisites that make justice possible.”

From Lisa Needham: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“Paul, Weiss…is the first to buckle in the face of an attack by…Trump, but it definitely will not be the last. The capitulation of one of the nation’s most prominent law firms is the worst sort of complying in advance, and its complete surrender immediately emboldened Trump to issue a new directive threatening any lawyer who sues the administration.”

Paul, Weiss managing partner Brad Karp sent a firm-wide letter explaining why he chose to say uncle so swiftly. He explained that Trump’s EO functionally threatened Paul, Weiss’s clients with the loss of their government contracts and access to the government if they continued to use the firm. Karp said he initially hoped the legal industry would “rally to our side,” but that didn’t happen. In fact, big law firm competitors tried to recruit Paul, Weiss partners and directly solicit their clients.

The firm at first planned to file a lawsuit challenging the executive order, as the firm Perkins Coie did when Trump recently targeted that firm with a similar EO. Perkins Coie won a temporary restraining order (TRO) blocking much of the EO from taking effect, with the judge saying Trump’s order was probably unconstitutional. But this didn’t deter Trump, who issued the executive order against Paul, Weiss three days after the Perkins Coie TRO was granted.

Trump just continued shopping for a law firm to extort.

Trump also used his Friday announcement to attack one particular lawyer by name, Marc Elias. From the NYT:

“Mr. Elias previously worked at Perkins Coie, and has long represented Democrats. Mr. Trump blames Mr. Elias, among others, for a dossier of unsubstantiated allegations about his links to Russia that was investigated by the FBI in 2016 and 2017.”

Elias said in a written statement:

“President Trump’s goal is clear. He wants lawyers and law firms to capitulate and cower until there is no one left to oppose his administration in court….There will be no negotiation with this White House about the clients we represent or the lawsuits we bring on their behalf.”

You know that Trump isn’t finished with Paul, Weiss. There will be innumerable demands. What if Trump is dissatisfied with the quality of the pro bono work? What if Paul, Weiss loses the pro bono cases? What if Trump disputes how the $40 million is accounted for?

We’re truly at a Vichy moment in American history, and that slope is very slippery. Appeasement doesn’t end well. There will be no end to the negotiations or the threats.

Paul Weiss will become a diminished law firm. They could lose clients who subscribe to the thinking: “If they won’t fight for themselves, how hard will they fight for us?”

Destruction of Government by Elon (DOGE)

The Daily Escape:

It used to be that In America, one truism of politics is that Social Security (SS) is the “third rail”: You mess with it at your political peril. Republicans have never liked Social Security. They voted against it when it was passed in 1935, and they have been trying to get rid of it in the 90 years since then.

But the problem is that SS is one of the most successful programs created by the government. It has reduced poverty among seniors from nearly 40% to only about 10% (and SS provides at least a subsistence level of income to that remaining 10%). It provides an income for people with disabilities who cannot work. And it has never added a penny to the national debt. Justifiably, it is a very popular program with Americans.

Because of its popularity, Republicans have never been able to abolish the program ̶ but they keep trying. In 2005, GW Bush wanted to privatize SS (putting seniors at risk by putting their money in the stock market). That led to a huge political blowback, and Bush dropped the idea.

Across the years, Trump has consistently promised not to touch Social Security, except now Musk’s DOGE may break Trump’s promise. Musk’s agency almost cut off phone service for people filing SS claims, and stopped only after the WaPo raised a stink:

“The Social Security Administration…abandoned plans it was considering to end phone service for millions of Americans filing retirement and disability claims after The Washington Post reported that Elon Musk’s US DOGE Service team was weighing the change to root out alleged fraud…The shift would have directed elderly and disabled people to rely on the internet and in-person field offices to process their claims, curtailing a service that 73 million Americans have relied on for decades to access earned government benefits.

However, Social Security and White House officials said the administration will still move ahead with another far more limited element of the original proposal: Customers will no longer be able to change a direct deposit routing number or other bank information by phone.”

The phone service change may not be happening, but Elon is still gunning for Social Security. This is from March 11:

“Elon Musk pushed debunked theories about Social Security on Monday while describing federal benefit programs as rife with fraud, suggesting they will be a primary target in his crusade to reduce government spending….“Most of the federal spending is entitlements,” Musk told the Fox Business Network. “That’s the big one to eliminate.’”

Musk also called Social Security “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time”, and has promised to cut the Social Security Administration’s workforce by 12%.

DOGE can’t actually abolish Social Security. But it can seriously damage it to the extent that the agency wouldn’t be able to deliver checks on time, wouldn’t be able to help recipients make needed changes, and won’t be able to effectively register new retirees. And once the agency can no longer function effectively, Congressional Republicans will step in to “reform” it. They will do that by substantially cutting benefits, or privatizing the program. Probably the latter, because that will benefit moguls on Wall Street.

In February, Trump reassured the nation that:

“Social Security will not be touched, it will only be strengthened, and an unnamed White House official told NBC that “Musk’s personal opinions about Social Security have no impact on Trump’s policies.”

Is Trump really willing to mess with Social Security payments? And if not, why is his administration acting like it’s getting ready to do that? What would be the political upside to broadcasting that you’re going to screw with America’s favorite entitlement program, and then not actually doing it?

What is clear is that the Trump administration doesn’t particularly seem like they’re governing with an eye to future elections. Old people vote in large numbers, and if you stop them from getting the checks they need to live — or even threaten to do so — you’re putting yourself in grave electoral danger.

And if Trump’s team isn’t worried about future elections…well, that’s even more deeply concerning.

The DOGE effort is the newest attempt by Republicans to attack Social Security. It gives the GOP some cover by letting DOGE do the dirty work. But only SS has the huge budget that Republicans want to get their hands on.

This is the latest effort by Republicans to get rid of Social Security (and Medicare and Medicaid). By gutting these funds, they will have the money for huge giveaways to the rich (and especially the super-rich).

They have always been the party of and for the rich. They really don’t care about the needs of the poor, the working class, or the middle class.

This attack on Social Security proves that.

Trump’s Art Of The Deal Hurts Sales Of The F-35

The Daily Escape:

The Black Pearl, Outer Banks, NC – March 2025 photo by Jim Feaster

Several countries are reconsidering procurement of Lockheed’s F-35 fighter given Trump’s unreliability as a military partner. Many but not all, are NATO partners, like Germany, Canada and Portugal and Turkey. It seems clear that Trump doesn’t understand NATO is basically a captive export market for US war products!

Take Germany:

“As the rift between the United States and the European Union continues to widen, German security experts are concerned that the Donald Trump administration could pull a “kill switch” on the F-35 Lightning II fighters that Germany is acquiring from the US. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany decided to procure 35 F-35 jets from the United States in March 2022, along with missiles and other armaments, for about 10 billion euros (US$10.89 billion).

A kill switch is typically believed to be a software-based backdoor mechanism which could be used by the supplier of a technology to disable or deteriorate the operation of a system, in this particular case, the F-35 stealth fighter jets.”

Or Canada:

“Canada is actively looking at potential alternatives to the US-built F-35 stealth fighter and will hold conversations with rival aircraft makers, Defence Minister Bill Blair said late Friday, just hours after being reappointed to the post as part of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s new cabinet… The re-examination in this country is taking place amid the bruising political fight with the Trump administration over tariffs and threats from the American president to annex Canada by economic force….

There has been a groundswell of support among Canadians to kill the $19-billion purchase and find aircraft other than those manufactured and maintained in the United States.”

Or Portugal:

“Portugal is getting cold feet about replacing its US-made F-16 fighter jets with more modern F-35s because of Donald Trump — in one of the first examples of the US president undermining a potential lucrative arms deal.”

The country’s air force has recommended buying Lockheed Martin F-35s, but when outgoing Defense Minister was asked by Portuguese media Público whether the government would follow that recommendation, he replied:

“We cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our choices. The recent position of the United States, in the context of NATO … must make us think about the best options, because the predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account.”

The ministry added a series of criteria that will be considered by Lisbon, including: “The geopolitical context” and “The extent of restrictions on the use of aircraft.”(Kill switch)

Or Turkey:

“Turkey has submitted a request to purchase 40 Typhoon fighter jets from BAE Systems….The request has been sent to the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom, which is to make a decision on the sale of the aircraft and the export of British technology to Turkey.

The implementation of this potential export contract will be entrusted to the United Kingdom, namely to BAE Systems.

In 2022, Turkey began to consider the Eurofighter Typhoon as a temporary solution to modernize its air force, especially after the country’s original exclusion from the F-35 program and the ban on their sale due to Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system.”

The F-35 is a massive arms program that tied together the technological and military fortunes of the Global North and bound NATO to Northeast Asia and Australia. One of the key selling points of the aircraft is that it comes with the promise of US technological integration and US security support. Those things are now in jeopardy, even before Musk sinks his tentacles into the program.

There are already concerns about the US attaching “strings” to arms sales, even to our allies, and seeing the US disable certain capabilities of F-16s in Ukraine where Trump cut off intelligence and delivery of arms did nothing to encourage other nations to purchase our planes.

When US defense contractors develop new weapons, they game out how many orders they expect to receive, and over what time frame they can expect income from those sales. If they find out late in the game that the orders they expected are not going to come in, they may try to get the US DOD to pick up some of the development costs that would have been covered by late orders.

It will be curious to see the extent to which the kind of comments coming from the Portuguese, the Canadians and the Swiss (also claiming Trump an unreliable partner) show up in Wall Street analyst reports on Lockheed Martin and its many F-35 subcontractors.

Trump thinks he can force the world to do business on his terms. He’s going to impose tariffs on all countries and plans on easing tariffs on those countries that will do his bidding. “Play ball with me, and I’ll be nice to you. If you balk, you won’t be able to sell anything to me. I will isolate you, and the countries that play by my rules will isolate you and destroy your economy.”

He banks on having most countries accept his bullying as the cost of doing business with the US.

Wait until he finds out that countries have high quality options when it comes to buying weapons. It will take a generation to fix what Trump has destroyed in less than two months, starting with trust in America. They won’t want to vacation here, buy our products, or work with us because of one man who gets off on being a loud mouth and a bully.

It’s going to be a long four years.

First They Came For The Communists

The Daily Escape:

Provincetown, MA, March 2025 photo by Marty Cowden

Wrongo hasn’t written since January, and there are two primary reasons. First, his overwhelming feeling of helplessness when the Democrats lost both Houses of Congress along with returning Trump to the White House. Truly, the Dems can’t be forgiven for their meek performance since November.

Second, chemotherapy and radiation can ruin your attention span: It is difficult to read anything long-form, much less write connected sentences. On the other hand, I’m having more good days than bad right now.

But today let’s gear up to talk about the arrest by Trump’s Department of Homeland Security of Mahmoud Khalil, a recent Columbia University graduate and green card holder, over his participation in protests at Columbia against Israel’s bombing of Gaza.

On Saturday Khalil was arrested by ICE agents in New York City and swiftly moved to a detention facility in Louisiana while the government attempts to deport him.

The NYT reported: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“A spokeswoman for the Department of Homeland Security…said in a statement on Sunday night that Mr. Khalil had been arrested “in support of President Trump’s executive orders prohibiting antisemitism.”

‘Khalil led activities aligned to Hamas, a designated terrorist organization…’

Aligned”? So, Khalil was arrested for wrong-think. Charlie Pierce asks in Esquire:

“So we’re disappearing people now? Nice to know…Are we now allowing the rendition of legal residents to black sites in the United States?”

Sleazy Politics

The Daily Escape:

You have to be shocked at the lack of grace, empathy and compassion coming from Trump and the Right as this horrific fire emergency in Los Angles has unfolded. It’s human nature to point fingers and there are no doubt mistakes that we uncover as the city recovers. It’s also natural in such fast moving emergencies that wrong information will be disseminated even by officials you can rely on.

But the Right Wing media, influencers and Republican politicians have been callous about this ghastly event, even for them. Most Americans outside LA are showing compassion and empathy. Most know some family member or friend who has lost a home. But Trump doesn’t do compassion.

People with compassion would ask “What would it be like if I had to flee my home with less than an hour’s notice” with all that comes with that? But Trump doesn’t do compassion. He sees this as political opportunities, blaming California governor Newsome before saying “Thousands of magnificent houses are gone, and many more will soon be lost”. His focus was the real estate, especially the upscale mansions, not the human tragedy. While Biden is using his last week, to get as much of FEMA’s available $27 billion out the door to L.A. as soon as possible, Trump is being cagey about whether he will provide any aid at all.

Musk also used the tragedy to bash the Los Angeles Fire Department for having some female firefighters. Musk actually tweeted “DEI means people DIE.”

This will not play well. It’s one thing when Trump is disdainful toward refugees. It’s another when he displays no compassion for middle- and upper-class Angelenos who played by the rules and lost everything.

Large-scale calamities cry out for moral leadership. But Trump and Musk are not moral leaders; they are amoral monsters. It’s impossible to envision Trump as Consoler-in-Chief. California and LA County are vital parts of the national economic engine. Threatening to hobble the LA region by withholding relief funds makes the moralizing and finger-wagging by clueless politicians and pundit personalities unbearable.

This isn’t what we should focus on: An area larger than San Fransisco has burned down: In the middle of La’s winter, the rainy season. And the screeching about DEI and bad fire management helps no one.

What’s changing is the climate.

California was paradise because it had a Mediterranean climate. That climate is shifting north. California’s moving towards a new climate. The old vegetation, suited for the old climate, will go, occasionally in fire like this one. If you’re a Californian and you want the old climate, move north, because that’s where the Mediterranean climate is moving.

And California had floods not long ago. In some places, your home needs to be both fireproof and floodproof. You prepare for fire, flood, wind and power and water outages. All without property insurance.

People understand that Trump will feed the disinformation machine. They understand that when he tries to add conditions to the FEMA aid, that it’s a cheap stunt.

Fingers shouldn’t be pointed at firefighters or political leaders in the trenches who are tasked with saving lives and helping people recover from catastrophes caused by an existential threat.

They should be pointed at the people who refuse to do anything about the real crisis we’re facing.

Perhaps later, in another two or four years.

In the meantime, focus not on the politics, but on what can be done to help on the ground in LA.

Give “Shadow Government” A Try

The Daily Escape:

Professor Timothy Snyder has a great suggestion that could help Dems win in the midterms and beyond. He suggests we adopt the “Shadow Government” used by the opposition in England.

“Shadow meant follow. The shadow ministers “shadowed” the actual ministers, in the sense of following their every move, criticizing policy and offering alternatives. Importantly, the shadow minister was always available to offer commentary to the press on his or her area of expertise…. Shadow ministers did not always become real ministers after the next elections, but often they did.”

Think Pete Buttigieg as a shadow minister on Fox criticizing his counterpart’s every move. More:

“In Great Britain, the shadow cabinet represents “the loyal opposition.” The loyalty in question is to the state and to its head, the monarch. In the United States, a “loyal opposition” would be loyal to our Constitution — and, indeed, that could be the basis of its activity…..By beginning from the principle that we have a government of laws, not men, a shadow cabinet would reinforce the American way of politics. It would be a very good thing to have a constitutional lawyer or two on the shadow cabinet.”

A shadow cabinet would remind us of how much better things could be. The regular reactions of its members to Musk/Trump would flow from a different sense of politics, priorities and policy. That is material that the press wants to be fed every day and that we all need to hear.

Think about it: When Trump does something outrageous, the government always gets to set the tone. It’s hard for journalists to be ready for every shocking moment. Without recourse to readily available opposition, the press is reduced to writing that “critics say”. But what if “the critics” had names and faces and expertise and ambitions and political responsibility? Members of a shadow cabinet would be there to comment, not just with expressions of outrage or warnings, but with specific knowledge and plausible alternatives.

“Candidates to be chair of the DNC should be talking about how this could be done. I mention the relevant issues because I believe this institution of opposition is something that Americans need and deserve. Only a minority voted for Trump. Harris’s policies, not Trump’s, were more popular. “

How would the DNC build and fund the Shadow Cabinet? Robert Reich assigned Labor or Commerce, Kamala Harriss for DOJ, and Mayor Pete being assigned Transportation, would be a start.

It’s time for fresh approaches to crafting an opposition: Today the Dems roll out some senior Party head (Chuck Schumer) to give the standard policy response. By design, it is high level and vague because the politicians lack the depth to talk about all issues. There are some in the House and Senate that are both young and have built some expertise. Think Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) covering Constitutional issues. He would be a good Shadow Governor.

Imagine the response coming from someone with expertise and a stake in the outcome. Over time, the Shadow would offer a “go-to” person for the press and the public who were looking for an official Democratic position on the specific matter at hand.

The midterms are in front of us, and we don’t need to pick up many seats to control the House and thereby emasculate the Trump government.

From Roll Call:

“The sitting president’s party has lost House seats in 17 of the last 19 midterm elections going back to 1950, with the two outliers, 1998 and 2002, largely explained by the impeachment of President Bill Clinton and the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.”

Only three Republicans — Nebraska’s Don Bacon, New York’s Michael Lawler and Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick — represent congressional districts carried by Harris in November. But it’s also good to remember that Trump’s one midterm election didn’t do so well, losing 42 GOP House seats in 2018.

The House, like the country at large, is almost evenly divided. That’s not necessarily a prescription for dramatic change in 2026. But an effort like the Shadow Government could help sharpen the issues and focus on individual House members. Possibly enough to bring about the small gains next year to make House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York the Speaker.

Wrongo also thinks Jefferies should be the leader of the Shadow Government experiment. He’s articulate, unscripted and has the most to gain with its success.

Not to be confused with the radio play from the 1930’s, The Shadow:

“Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows…” – The Shadow

Firing Federal Workers

The Daily Escape:

It should be possible for a non-expert (like any of us) to look at how the Trump administration implements a policy and tell whether they are serious about delivering material results.

One such place is the plan to fire federal workers. As the co-heads of the newly created Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, billionaires Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are promising to slash at least $2 trillion from the federal budget. Trump and his DOGE sidekicks Elon and Vivek have made a lot of statements about cutting the federal budget by firing huge numbers of government employees.

The duo have cited areas they’d like to target, such as the Internal Revenue Service, the Department of Education, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. And they want to take a hard look at foreign aid, defense spending and the inaccurate payments the government sends to Social Security recipients and others.

But taking that big a chunk out of federal headcount would be a tall order. Much of the headcount money supports mandatory programs, which must be funded in accordance with existing laws. These include Social Security and Medicare benefits and interest on the federal debt.

Based on summary numbers at federalpay.org, most federal employees (around 3 million) are associated with the Department of Defense, which Trump is reflexively likely to support. The next two biggest departments are the departments of Veterans’ Affairs (over 400,000) and Homeland Security (over 200,000). Again, big cuts to these departments are not likely to play well with Trump fans, and the number of Homeland Security employees will need to go up, not down, if Trump is serious about deporting large numbers of people. Federal employees are spread out across every state in the US, with most workers living in the DC area, Texas, and California.

Here’s a chart showing total US government employees by department:

Many federal programs are distributed around the country, especially those that deliver federal benefits (Veterans, HHS). Cutting those jobs will disproportionately hurt employment and government services in low-tax Red states that don’t have much in the way of state-level programs to pick up the slack.

Elon and Vivek can undoubtedly find a few DC offices to sacrifice, but that’s just a stunt. It won’t have a big impact on the US budget. For example, reduce the headcount at the Department of Transportation by 25k jobs that we assume are all 100k/yr. positions saves just $2.5 billion while wrecking the department.

The Department of Education, a favorite target of Republicans long before Trump, has only a little over 4,000 employees. The department has a $45 billion budget, but most of that is pass-throughs to local schools to pay for things like special education. Anything that interferes with those pass-throughs will not ultimately play well in rural areas that cannot fund such luxuries other than with federal dollars.

It is also important to remember that a $100,000 a year job in Washington DC might not be considered all that great, but it looks pretty darn good in Wichita. At the end of the day, the biggest thing the working class cares about is the availability of living wage jobs. Cutting some of the best-paid and most secure jobs throughout the country does not provide an immediate net benefit to the working class. It mostly just provides cover for giving more tax-cuts to the rich.

It may be theoretically possible to improve the economy by making the federal government more efficient, but it is fiendishly difficult to do in practice. The size of the federal work force has held about constant for the last 50 years, despite increasing responsibilities of the government. Downsizing has occurred in the past, (under Clinton), but events like the 9/11 attacks halted this trend due to increased security needs.

Although the bar is set low, the low-hanging fruit doesn’t offer lots of opportunity for Trump and Elon to make real gains on the headcount front in DC. Even though Democrats are not in control of much in Washington, they have a chance in 2026 and 2028 if a big backlash from firing federal workers occurs on Trump’s watch.

We’ll see what happens.

Happy New Year from the Mansion of Wrong to all who celebrate!

Happy Holidays

The Daily Escape:

Santa Run, Las Vegas, NV -December 2024

Just a short message that this is the last column for 2024. Here’s hoping you have a wonderful holiday regardless of how or what you celebrate at this time of the year! We are spending time with family and friends accompanied by food, laughter, and strong beverages! We’re also swapping presents on the theme that the gift should be a “personal guilty pleasure”. That means Wrongo’s contains chocolate covered coconut pieces for the lucky winner. They’re delicious with single malt scotch.

The Christmas holiday is a time for reflection, and our focus is gratitude for having a large family and a few close friends that care so much about us, are so willing to help when needed, and who do it with a hug and a smile. We’re also grateful for those who read the blog. Thank you for going out of your way to be a part of this effort.

The New Year is bound to bring us new challenges, certainly for Wrongo, and certainly politically. How is Trump spending the holiday? Trying to take back the Panama Canal.

See The Intelligencer, Trump Is Threatening to Take Back Canal. He lambasted the 1977 treaty Jimmy Carter signed ceding the Canal to Panama, and he claimed Panama was violating that treaty by allowing China to manage it. (China does not manage the Canal). Trump’s post drew a reprimand from Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino who noted that every inch of Panama is part of a sovereign nation.

Trump then upped the ante with an “oh yea?” by posting a photo of the Panama Canal under a US flag with the caption, “Welcome to the US Canal.”

It is beyond difficult to describe the idiocy of Trump’s suggestion to invade Panama in order to take back control of the Canal. Perhaps he’s engaging in a PR stunt to draw attention away from the fact that he’s lost some control of the GOP to Musk. From the AP:

“Since Panama is clearly not willing to give back the Canal — which the country has controlled since 1999 and spent billions of dollars to improve, and is a source of great national pride — pretty much the only way Trump could take control of the waterway would be for the US to invade Panama (again).”

“Also, Trump still wants Greenland. In his announcement on Sunday nominating tech investor Ken Howery as ambassador to Denmark, Trump wrote that “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”

It is tricky to ascribe rational motivations to Trump’s actions. His administration is shaping up to be one of fiasco, farce and fuck-ups. Prepare for much more of the same in 2025.

It’s going to be a crazy year, folks. All the best in your efforts to stay sane through it all!