The Wrongologist – Geopolitics, Power and Political Economy

Destruction of Government by Elon (DOGE)

The Daily Escape:

It used to be that In America, one truism of politics is that Social Security (SS) is the “third rail”: You mess with it at your political peril. Republicans have never liked Social Security. They voted against it when it was passed in 1935, and they have been trying to get rid of it in the 90 years since then.

But the problem is that SS is one of the most successful programs created by the government. It has reduced poverty among seniors from nearly 40% to only about 10% (and SS provides at least a subsistence level of income to that remaining 10%). It provides an income for people with disabilities who cannot work. And it has never added a penny to the national debt. Justifiably, it is a very popular program with Americans.

Because of its popularity, Republicans have never been able to abolish the program ̶ but they keep trying. In 2005, GW Bush wanted to privatize SS (putting seniors at risk by putting their money in the stock market). That led to a huge political blowback, and Bush dropped the idea.

Across the years, Trump has consistently promised not to touch Social Security, except now Musk’s DOGE may break Trump’s promise. Musk’s agency almost cut off phone service for people filing SS claims, and stopped only after the WaPo raised a stink:

“The Social Security Administration…abandoned plans it was considering to end phone service for millions of Americans filing retirement and disability claims after The Washington Post reported that Elon Musk’s US DOGE Service team was weighing the change to root out alleged fraud…The shift would have directed elderly and disabled people to rely on the internet and in-person field offices to process their claims, curtailing a service that 73 million Americans have relied on for decades to access earned government benefits.

However, Social Security and White House officials said the administration will still move ahead with another far more limited element of the original proposal: Customers will no longer be able to change a direct deposit routing number or other bank information by phone.”

The phone service change may not be happening, but Elon is still gunning for Social Security. This is from March 11:

“Elon Musk pushed debunked theories about Social Security on Monday while describing federal benefit programs as rife with fraud, suggesting they will be a primary target in his crusade to reduce government spending….“Most of the federal spending is entitlements,” Musk told the Fox Business Network. “That’s the big one to eliminate.’”

Musk also called Social Security “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time”, and has promised to cut the Social Security Administration’s workforce by 12%.

DOGE can’t actually abolish Social Security. But it can seriously damage it to the extent that the agency wouldn’t be able to deliver checks on time, wouldn’t be able to help recipients make needed changes, and won’t be able to effectively register new retirees. And once the agency can no longer function effectively, Congressional Republicans will step in to “reform” it. They will do that by substantially cutting benefits, or privatizing the program. Probably the latter, because that will benefit moguls on Wall Street.

In February, Trump reassured the nation that:

“Social Security will not be touched, it will only be strengthened, and an unnamed White House official told NBC that “Musk’s personal opinions about Social Security have no impact on Trump’s policies.”

Is Trump really willing to mess with Social Security payments? And if not, why is his administration acting like it’s getting ready to do that? What would be the political upside to broadcasting that you’re going to screw with America’s favorite entitlement program, and then not actually doing it?

What is clear is that the Trump administration doesn’t particularly seem like they’re governing with an eye to future elections. Old people vote in large numbers, and if you stop them from getting the checks they need to live — or even threaten to do so — you’re putting yourself in grave electoral danger.

And if Trump’s team isn’t worried about future elections…well, that’s even more deeply concerning.

The DOGE effort is the newest attempt by Republicans to attack Social Security. It gives the GOP some cover by letting DOGE do the dirty work. But only SS has the huge budget that Republicans want to get their hands on.

This is the latest effort by Republicans to get rid of Social Security (and Medicare and Medicaid). By gutting these funds, they will have the money for huge giveaways to the rich (and especially the super-rich).

They have always been the party of and for the rich. They really don’t care about the needs of the poor, the working class, or the middle class.

This attack on Social Security proves that.

Trump’s Art Of The Deal Hurts Sales Of The F-35

The Daily Escape:

The Black Pearl, Outer Banks, NC – March 2025 photo by Jim Feaster

Several countries are reconsidering procurement of Lockheed’s F-35 fighter given Trump’s unreliability as a military partner. Many but not all, are NATO partners, like Germany, Canada and Portugal and Turkey. It seems clear that Trump doesn’t understand NATO is basically a captive export market for US war products!

Take Germany:

“As the rift between the United States and the European Union continues to widen, German security experts are concerned that the Donald Trump administration could pull a “kill switch” on the F-35 Lightning II fighters that Germany is acquiring from the US. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany decided to procure 35 F-35 jets from the United States in March 2022, along with missiles and other armaments, for about 10 billion euros (US$10.89 billion).

A kill switch is typically believed to be a software-based backdoor mechanism which could be used by the supplier of a technology to disable or deteriorate the operation of a system, in this particular case, the F-35 stealth fighter jets.”

Or Canada:

“Canada is actively looking at potential alternatives to the US-built F-35 stealth fighter and will hold conversations with rival aircraft makers, Defence Minister Bill Blair said late Friday, just hours after being reappointed to the post as part of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s new cabinet… The re-examination in this country is taking place amid the bruising political fight with the Trump administration over tariffs and threats from the American president to annex Canada by economic force….

There has been a groundswell of support among Canadians to kill the $19-billion purchase and find aircraft other than those manufactured and maintained in the United States.”

Or Portugal:

“Portugal is getting cold feet about replacing its US-made F-16 fighter jets with more modern F-35s because of Donald Trump — in one of the first examples of the US president undermining a potential lucrative arms deal.”

The country’s air force has recommended buying Lockheed Martin F-35s, but when outgoing Defense Minister was asked by Portuguese media Público whether the government would follow that recommendation, he replied:

“We cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our choices. The recent position of the United States, in the context of NATO … must make us think about the best options, because the predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account.”

The ministry added a series of criteria that will be considered by Lisbon, including: “The geopolitical context” and “The extent of restrictions on the use of aircraft.”(Kill switch)

Or Turkey:

“Turkey has submitted a request to purchase 40 Typhoon fighter jets from BAE Systems….The request has been sent to the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom, which is to make a decision on the sale of the aircraft and the export of British technology to Turkey.

The implementation of this potential export contract will be entrusted to the United Kingdom, namely to BAE Systems.

In 2022, Turkey began to consider the Eurofighter Typhoon as a temporary solution to modernize its air force, especially after the country’s original exclusion from the F-35 program and the ban on their sale due to Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system.”

The F-35 is a massive arms program that tied together the technological and military fortunes of the Global North and bound NATO to Northeast Asia and Australia. One of the key selling points of the aircraft is that it comes with the promise of US technological integration and US security support. Those things are now in jeopardy, even before Musk sinks his tentacles into the program.

There are already concerns about the US attaching “strings” to arms sales, even to our allies, and seeing the US disable certain capabilities of F-16s in Ukraine where Trump cut off intelligence and delivery of arms did nothing to encourage other nations to purchase our planes.

When US defense contractors develop new weapons, they game out how many orders they expect to receive, and over what time frame they can expect income from those sales. If they find out late in the game that the orders they expected are not going to come in, they may try to get the US DOD to pick up some of the development costs that would have been covered by late orders.

It will be curious to see the extent to which the kind of comments coming from the Portuguese, the Canadians and the Swiss (also claiming Trump an unreliable partner) show up in Wall Street analyst reports on Lockheed Martin and its many F-35 subcontractors.

Trump thinks he can force the world to do business on his terms. He’s going to impose tariffs on all countries and plans on easing tariffs on those countries that will do his bidding. “Play ball with me, and I’ll be nice to you. If you balk, you won’t be able to sell anything to me. I will isolate you, and the countries that play by my rules will isolate you and destroy your economy.”

He banks on having most countries accept his bullying as the cost of doing business with the US.

Wait until he finds out that countries have high quality options when it comes to buying weapons. It will take a generation to fix what Trump has destroyed in less than two months, starting with trust in America. They won’t want to vacation here, buy our products, or work with us because of one man who gets off on being a loud mouth and a bully.

It’s going to be a long four years.

First They Came For The Communists

The Daily Escape:

Provincetown, MA, March 2025 photo by Marty Cowden

Wrongo hasn’t written since January, and there are two primary reasons. First, his overwhelming feeling of helplessness when the Democrats lost both Houses of Congress along with returning Trump to the White House. Truly, the Dems can’t be forgiven for their meek performance since November.

Second, chemotherapy and radiation can ruin your attention span: It is difficult to read anything long-form, much less write connected sentences. On the other hand, I’m having more good days than bad right now.

But today let’s gear up to talk about the arrest by Trump’s Department of Homeland Security of Mahmoud Khalil, a recent Columbia University graduate and green card holder, over his participation in protests at Columbia against Israel’s bombing of Gaza.

On Saturday Khalil was arrested by ICE agents in New York City and swiftly moved to a detention facility in Louisiana while the government attempts to deport him.

The NYT reported: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“A spokeswoman for the Department of Homeland Security…said in a statement on Sunday night that Mr. Khalil had been arrested “in support of President Trump’s executive orders prohibiting antisemitism.”

‘Khalil led activities aligned to Hamas, a designated terrorist organization…’

Aligned”? So, Khalil was arrested for wrong-think. Charlie Pierce asks in Esquire:

“So we’re disappearing people now? Nice to know…Are we now allowing the rendition of legal residents to black sites in the United States?”

Sleazy Politics

The Daily Escape:

You have to be shocked at the lack of grace, empathy and compassion coming from Trump and the Right as this horrific fire emergency in Los Angles has unfolded. It’s human nature to point fingers and there are no doubt mistakes that we uncover as the city recovers. It’s also natural in such fast moving emergencies that wrong information will be disseminated even by officials you can rely on.

But the Right Wing media, influencers and Republican politicians have been callous about this ghastly event, even for them. Most Americans outside LA are showing compassion and empathy. Most know some family member or friend who has lost a home. But Trump doesn’t do compassion.

People with compassion would ask “What would it be like if I had to flee my home with less than an hour’s notice” with all that comes with that? But Trump doesn’t do compassion. He sees this as political opportunities, blaming California governor Newsome before saying “Thousands of magnificent houses are gone, and many more will soon be lost”. His focus was the real estate, especially the upscale mansions, not the human tragedy. While Biden is using his last week, to get as much of FEMA’s available $27 billion out the door to L.A. as soon as possible, Trump is being cagey about whether he will provide any aid at all.

Musk also used the tragedy to bash the Los Angeles Fire Department for having some female firefighters. Musk actually tweeted “DEI means people DIE.”

This will not play well. It’s one thing when Trump is disdainful toward refugees. It’s another when he displays no compassion for middle- and upper-class Angelenos who played by the rules and lost everything.

Large-scale calamities cry out for moral leadership. But Trump and Musk are not moral leaders; they are amoral monsters. It’s impossible to envision Trump as Consoler-in-Chief. California and LA County are vital parts of the national economic engine. Threatening to hobble the LA region by withholding relief funds makes the moralizing and finger-wagging by clueless politicians and pundit personalities unbearable.

This isn’t what we should focus on: An area larger than San Fransisco has burned down: In the middle of La’s winter, the rainy season. And the screeching about DEI and bad fire management helps no one.

What’s changing is the climate.

California was paradise because it had a Mediterranean climate. That climate is shifting north. California’s moving towards a new climate. The old vegetation, suited for the old climate, will go, occasionally in fire like this one. If you’re a Californian and you want the old climate, move north, because that’s where the Mediterranean climate is moving.

And California had floods not long ago. In some places, your home needs to be both fireproof and floodproof. You prepare for fire, flood, wind and power and water outages. All without property insurance.

People understand that Trump will feed the disinformation machine. They understand that when he tries to add conditions to the FEMA aid, that it’s a cheap stunt.

Fingers shouldn’t be pointed at firefighters or political leaders in the trenches who are tasked with saving lives and helping people recover from catastrophes caused by an existential threat.

They should be pointed at the people who refuse to do anything about the real crisis we’re facing.

Perhaps later, in another two or four years.

In the meantime, focus not on the politics, but on what can be done to help on the ground in LA.

Give “Shadow Government” A Try

The Daily Escape:

Professor Timothy Snyder has a great suggestion that could help Dems win in the midterms and beyond. He suggests we adopt the “Shadow Government” used by the opposition in England.

“Shadow meant follow. The shadow ministers “shadowed” the actual ministers, in the sense of following their every move, criticizing policy and offering alternatives. Importantly, the shadow minister was always available to offer commentary to the press on his or her area of expertise…. Shadow ministers did not always become real ministers after the next elections, but often they did.”

Think Pete Buttigieg as a shadow minister on Fox criticizing his counterpart’s every move. More:

“In Great Britain, the shadow cabinet represents “the loyal opposition.” The loyalty in question is to the state and to its head, the monarch. In the United States, a “loyal opposition” would be loyal to our Constitution — and, indeed, that could be the basis of its activity…..By beginning from the principle that we have a government of laws, not men, a shadow cabinet would reinforce the American way of politics. It would be a very good thing to have a constitutional lawyer or two on the shadow cabinet.”

A shadow cabinet would remind us of how much better things could be. The regular reactions of its members to Musk/Trump would flow from a different sense of politics, priorities and policy. That is material that the press wants to be fed every day and that we all need to hear.

Think about it: When Trump does something outrageous, the government always gets to set the tone. It’s hard for journalists to be ready for every shocking moment. Without recourse to readily available opposition, the press is reduced to writing that “critics say”. But what if “the critics” had names and faces and expertise and ambitions and political responsibility? Members of a shadow cabinet would be there to comment, not just with expressions of outrage or warnings, but with specific knowledge and plausible alternatives.

“Candidates to be chair of the DNC should be talking about how this could be done. I mention the relevant issues because I believe this institution of opposition is something that Americans need and deserve. Only a minority voted for Trump. Harris’s policies, not Trump’s, were more popular. “

How would the DNC build and fund the Shadow Cabinet? Robert Reich assigned Labor or Commerce, Kamala Harriss for DOJ, and Mayor Pete being assigned Transportation, would be a start.

It’s time for fresh approaches to crafting an opposition: Today the Dems roll out some senior Party head (Chuck Schumer) to give the standard policy response. By design, it is high level and vague because the politicians lack the depth to talk about all issues. There are some in the House and Senate that are both young and have built some expertise. Think Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) covering Constitutional issues. He would be a good Shadow Governor.

Imagine the response coming from someone with expertise and a stake in the outcome. Over time, the Shadow would offer a “go-to” person for the press and the public who were looking for an official Democratic position on the specific matter at hand.

The midterms are in front of us, and we don’t need to pick up many seats to control the House and thereby emasculate the Trump government.

From Roll Call:

“The sitting president’s party has lost House seats in 17 of the last 19 midterm elections going back to 1950, with the two outliers, 1998 and 2002, largely explained by the impeachment of President Bill Clinton and the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.”

Only three Republicans — Nebraska’s Don Bacon, New York’s Michael Lawler and Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick — represent congressional districts carried by Harris in November. But it’s also good to remember that Trump’s one midterm election didn’t do so well, losing 42 GOP House seats in 2018.

The House, like the country at large, is almost evenly divided. That’s not necessarily a prescription for dramatic change in 2026. But an effort like the Shadow Government could help sharpen the issues and focus on individual House members. Possibly enough to bring about the small gains next year to make House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York the Speaker.

Wrongo also thinks Jefferies should be the leader of the Shadow Government experiment. He’s articulate, unscripted and has the most to gain with its success.

Not to be confused with the radio play from the 1930’s, The Shadow:

“Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows…” – The Shadow

Firing Federal Workers

The Daily Escape:

It should be possible for a non-expert (like any of us) to look at how the Trump administration implements a policy and tell whether they are serious about delivering material results.

One such place is the plan to fire federal workers. As the co-heads of the newly created Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, billionaires Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are promising to slash at least $2 trillion from the federal budget. Trump and his DOGE sidekicks Elon and Vivek have made a lot of statements about cutting the federal budget by firing huge numbers of government employees.

The duo have cited areas they’d like to target, such as the Internal Revenue Service, the Department of Education, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. And they want to take a hard look at foreign aid, defense spending and the inaccurate payments the government sends to Social Security recipients and others.

But taking that big a chunk out of federal headcount would be a tall order. Much of the headcount money supports mandatory programs, which must be funded in accordance with existing laws. These include Social Security and Medicare benefits and interest on the federal debt.

Based on summary numbers at federalpay.org, most federal employees (around 3 million) are associated with the Department of Defense, which Trump is reflexively likely to support. The next two biggest departments are the departments of Veterans’ Affairs (over 400,000) and Homeland Security (over 200,000). Again, big cuts to these departments are not likely to play well with Trump fans, and the number of Homeland Security employees will need to go up, not down, if Trump is serious about deporting large numbers of people. Federal employees are spread out across every state in the US, with most workers living in the DC area, Texas, and California.

Here’s a chart showing total US government employees by department:

Many federal programs are distributed around the country, especially those that deliver federal benefits (Veterans, HHS). Cutting those jobs will disproportionately hurt employment and government services in low-tax Red states that don’t have much in the way of state-level programs to pick up the slack.

Elon and Vivek can undoubtedly find a few DC offices to sacrifice, but that’s just a stunt. It won’t have a big impact on the US budget. For example, reduce the headcount at the Department of Transportation by 25k jobs that we assume are all 100k/yr. positions saves just $2.5 billion while wrecking the department.

The Department of Education, a favorite target of Republicans long before Trump, has only a little over 4,000 employees. The department has a $45 billion budget, but most of that is pass-throughs to local schools to pay for things like special education. Anything that interferes with those pass-throughs will not ultimately play well in rural areas that cannot fund such luxuries other than with federal dollars.

It is also important to remember that a $100,000 a year job in Washington DC might not be considered all that great, but it looks pretty darn good in Wichita. At the end of the day, the biggest thing the working class cares about is the availability of living wage jobs. Cutting some of the best-paid and most secure jobs throughout the country does not provide an immediate net benefit to the working class. It mostly just provides cover for giving more tax-cuts to the rich.

It may be theoretically possible to improve the economy by making the federal government more efficient, but it is fiendishly difficult to do in practice. The size of the federal work force has held about constant for the last 50 years, despite increasing responsibilities of the government. Downsizing has occurred in the past, (under Clinton), but events like the 9/11 attacks halted this trend due to increased security needs.

Although the bar is set low, the low-hanging fruit doesn’t offer lots of opportunity for Trump and Elon to make real gains on the headcount front in DC. Even though Democrats are not in control of much in Washington, they have a chance in 2026 and 2028 if a big backlash from firing federal workers occurs on Trump’s watch.

We’ll see what happens.

Happy New Year from the Mansion of Wrong to all who celebrate!

Happy Holidays

The Daily Escape:

Santa Run, Las Vegas, NV -December 2024

Just a short message that this is the last column for 2024. Here’s hoping you have a wonderful holiday regardless of how or what you celebrate at this time of the year! We are spending time with family and friends accompanied by food, laughter, and strong beverages! We’re also swapping presents on the theme that the gift should be a “personal guilty pleasure”. That means Wrongo’s contains chocolate covered coconut pieces for the lucky winner. They’re delicious with single malt scotch.

The Christmas holiday is a time for reflection, and our focus is gratitude for having a large family and a few close friends that care so much about us, are so willing to help when needed, and who do it with a hug and a smile. We’re also grateful for those who read the blog. Thank you for going out of your way to be a part of this effort.

The New Year is bound to bring us new challenges, certainly for Wrongo, and certainly politically. How is Trump spending the holiday? Trying to take back the Panama Canal.

See The Intelligencer, Trump Is Threatening to Take Back Canal. He lambasted the 1977 treaty Jimmy Carter signed ceding the Canal to Panama, and he claimed Panama was violating that treaty by allowing China to manage it. (China does not manage the Canal). Trump’s post drew a reprimand from Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino who noted that every inch of Panama is part of a sovereign nation.

Trump then upped the ante with an “oh yea?” by posting a photo of the Panama Canal under a US flag with the caption, “Welcome to the US Canal.”

It is beyond difficult to describe the idiocy of Trump’s suggestion to invade Panama in order to take back control of the Canal. Perhaps he’s engaging in a PR stunt to draw attention away from the fact that he’s lost some control of the GOP to Musk. From the AP:

“Since Panama is clearly not willing to give back the Canal — which the country has controlled since 1999 and spent billions of dollars to improve, and is a source of great national pride — pretty much the only way Trump could take control of the waterway would be for the US to invade Panama (again).”

“Also, Trump still wants Greenland. In his announcement on Sunday nominating tech investor Ken Howery as ambassador to Denmark, Trump wrote that “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”

It is tricky to ascribe rational motivations to Trump’s actions. His administration is shaping up to be one of fiasco, farce and fuck-ups. Prepare for much more of the same in 2025.

It’s going to be a crazy year, folks. All the best in your efforts to stay sane through it all!

The Chaos Musk Go

Cartoon of the week:

Since the GOP won control of the House 2 years ago they have not passed a single appropriations package into law. That’s the primary job of the House of Representatives. Government has operated at funding levels set by Democrats two years ago via passing Continuing Resolutions every few months. This is not normal.

And it continued last week, just in a weirder way. From CNN:

“The House has voted to pass a stopgap funding bill just hours before a midnight deadline to avert a federal government shutdown. The Senate must next take up the bill. The vote was 366 to 34. Thirty-four Republicans voted against the bill, and one Democrat voted present. The bill would extend government funding into March and includes disaster relief and farming provisions, but does not include a suspension of the debt limit, which President-elect Donald Trump has been demanding Republicans address.”

The Senate passed the measure as expected just after midnight. And Biden signed it.

But, just two days ago, Trump and Musk threatened to ensure a primary challenge for any House Republican who voted for a bill that didn’t include a debt limit increase. On Friday, 170 of them took him up on just that.

Musk is now claiming that he’s really fine with all this. But back up two days to this from Robert Hubbell:

“Musk ordered Republicans not to pass “any bill” until Trump is sworn in on January 20, 2025. If Republicans follow Musk’s command, there will be no government funding for a month (at least)–from Friday, December 20, 2024, through Monday, January 20, 2025. If that happens, chaos will ensue.”

And it got worse. Co-President Trump remained on the sidelines of the budget debate until after Musk tweeted “This bill should not pass.” Trump then posted a curveball:

“Unless the Democrats terminate or substantially extend the Debt Ceiling now, I will fight ’till the end.”

The end happened way before the end, though. Increasing the debt ceiling is something that didn’t need to be done until June of 2025. But Trump didn’t want a debt ceiling increase to happen on his watch. The reason that Trump wanted to force a debt limit increase under Biden is that Trump needs that increase to pay for the proposed extensions of his 2017 tax cuts for millionaires and corporations. From The Hill, Lawmakers caught off guard by Trump debt ceiling demand: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“…Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) accused Trump of wanting Democrats ‘to agree to raise the debt ceiling so he can pass his massive corporate and billionaire tax cut without a problem.’….‘Shorter version: tax cut for billionaires or the government shuts down for Christmas,’ he added.”

The chaos caused by Musk foreshadows a second Trump administration with unelected, unaccountable billionaires mucking about in our politics. What could go wrong? With this kabuki, Hubbell thought this:

Trump looked like he is subordinate to Musk.
Musk has—for now—seized momentum from Trump as the dominant political force in the second Trump administration.
It is difficult to see how Mike Johnson survives as Speaker….Johnson has been humiliated and back-stabbed by Trump and Musk. Mike Johnson’s credibility with his own caucus and Democratic counterparts is non-existent. And some of that showed in the bill that was passed on Friday.

If you’re looking for a way to combat this, Democrats should publicly embarrass Trump about Musk. Call Musk the President-elect. Or the richer & smarter co-President; the one people really want to talk to. Trump will HATE it and might eventually ‘fire’ Musk. Remember, you can’t spell FELON without ELON.

We’re more than a decade now into the GOP’s performative politics of destruction. It gains power by touting its aim to break stuff and then runs into a brick wall when it’s forced to make the hard choices that come with holding power. Any GOP effort to govern at least temporarily is susceptible to being undermined by its many bomb throwers, now including Musk, who can exert leverage by striking a purer “blow it all up” posture than the rest of the GOP.

The events of the last week should give us hope that there are limits to the delusional, performative, grandiose claims and threats being peddled by Musk and Trump. They were losers in their first attempt of a smack-down with Congress. The lesson that the deficit hawks in the GOP should take from the tussle is that Trump and Musk are not as tough as they think.

In fact, it may signal the start of Trump’s “lame duck” presidency.

Ron Filipkowski of MeidasNews accurately summed up the chaos we now find ourselves in. The question is whether non-elected officials should control funding the US government:

“The owner of a car company is controlling the House of Representatives from a social media app.”

What does it say about America that Elon Musk had to pay $44 billion to buy control of Twitter, but only $250 million in campaign contributions to Trump to buy control of the U.S. government?

This country is falling apart. Kind of like a Cybertruck.

Musk has to go.

Democratic Party Messaging

The Daily Escape:

Pikes Peak, Colorado Springs, CO – December 2024 photo by Monica Breckenridge.

The Democrats are meeting this week to decide on who will lead them into the 2026 midterms and the 2028 general election. Wrongo thinks it’s time for a revolution.

The key question is how do Democrats go back to winning presidential elections? And it may not be the way you think. From Jon V. Last:

“Since Trump’s emergence in 2016 the opposition has responded by acting as if it were still 2015. The Biden administration pursued a vigorous, bipartisan agenda filled with popular legislation designed to promote economic growth across the board. Biden spent money on infrastructure and manufacturing—much of it in red states and rural areas where Democrats had little support.

The Biden administration’s theory was that by governing from the center and focusing on employment and economic growth, Democrats could retain the support of the majority….”

But that theory didn’t work, and Trump won, running on zero ideas about growth, prosperity, or progress. His campaign was posited on the infliction of pain to outsiders. Trump didn’t promise to improve the lives of his voters. He promised to punish the people his voters wanted to hurt. That was the entirety of his electoral proposition, and none of it was subtext. Instead it was bold-face, ALL CAPS text.

Last says it worked because America has changed and the majority of voters are no longer motivated by wanting progress for themselves. Instead they’re motivated primarily by anger that out-groups—the people they do not like—might be succeeding or getting benefits they’re not getting.

If this is true, and at least some evidence suggests it is, how do Democrats persuade voters not to be quite so angry and to vote for them? From Brian Beutler: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“…winning the next election will require Democrats to persuade some as-yet unpersuaded voters that they’re worth voting for. Whatever policies Democrats think are popular, whatever affects they associate with normalness and affability, if they can’t do the delicate work of changing a mind, they can’t get anywhere.”

“Democrats are about to have as little power as they’ve had at any time in the past two decades for a simple reason: Most Americans weren’t convinced that they’d be better off under Democratic rule. That’s it. And there’s no shortcut back to power that avoids the difficult task of convincing people to change their minds.”

More: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“The Democrats need more and better communicators, and, crucially, it needs the people who don’t understand their potential to influence conventional wisdom and public opinion to get with the times. Most persuasion doesn’t happen person to person, it is mediated. When it does happen person to person, it is most often between people who already know each other, and usually one of those people is regurgitating ideas they picked up….And the ripest targets are no longer classic swing voters who are happy to talk politics with strangers….”

Couple all of this with the problem of where people get their news, and you have Dems digging out of a ditch partially of their own making. What Democrats are missing more than anything is creative thinking about how to reach people who will never answer a telephone call from a number they don’t recognize, never answer the door for a canvasser, and never form lasting political beliefs by watching or reading professional newscasts (because they rarely, if ever do).

This time around, Democrats either need their leaders to adapt, or else they need new leaders.

Jon Last thinks what will win votes in this environment is a lefty demagogue akin to what Bernie Sanders has been selling for years with his “millionaires and billionaires” rants. Sanders’s pitches resonated with younger voters. He got quite a lot of traction in 2016, but Democratic Party primary voters were not ready for him.

Who should the Dems support to lead them into the next round of elections? It should be a group of people in the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s. And thank God there is at least some movement among “younger” Democrats on the Hill to challenge the party’s gerontocracy.

Billy Ray is a screenwriter. His Captain Phillips screenplay earned him an Oscar nomination. He thinks the Democrats’ storytelling ought to start with:

“Whoever is going to be our next presidential candidate needs to look to the American people and say, ‘You matter. Not me, not Trump. You matter. You matter to your family, you matter to your community, you matter to your country,’” he adds. “‘You matter to our collective future, and you matter to me. And what I’m going to do for the next four years is just work for working families. I’m going to do the things that made the Democratic Party your party for so long.’”

Working families. Who among the Democrats out there can build on and carry this message home?

Evolve or Die, Dems.

Implications Of Brian Thompson’s Assassination

The Daily Escape:

Bear Trap Gap, NC – November 2024 photo by Mandy Gallimore

“If you want things to stay as they are, things will have to change”– Il Gattopardo

If you’re on social media, a concerning number of people seem to openly support gunning down a “corporate rich guy” in broad daylight. Brian Thompson, the CEO of United Healthcare was murdered in what appears to be a targeted killing. And the comments about it on the internet underscore there is kind of a depravity circulating in too many Americans.

This, after two attempts to assassinate Trump during the campaign. Which stirred up similar, although more muted reaction on social media.

The killer left anti-insurance messages on the shell casings of the bullets that killed Thompson, using the words: “deny,” “defend” and “depose”. Those words are references to the ways insurance companies avoid paying for care.

An excellent summary by Bob Lefsetz:

“And we thought the revolution would arrive as a result of the red/blue divide. When in truth, it’s all about income inequality. Please don’t criticize me for having sympathy for those screwed by the insurance companies. If I were in charge, there’d be no guns at all, or a law akin to that in Australia. But one would posit that the shooter is pissed because the insurance company didn’t pay.

But that’s what insurance companies do, not pay. That’s their business model. Even assuming you can see the doctor of your choice, which is rare.”

Yes, not pay whenever possible is what insurance companies do.

To be clear, this is why advanced societies have tended to create broad publicly funded social safety net programs. It’s not because their bleeding heart politicians love giving away money. It’s because making sure people have humane standards of living keeps them from becoming desperate and doing stuff like this. During the Great Depression, capitalists agreed—grudgingly—to the New Deal because they were afraid otherwise the country would “go Communist”.

We have no clarity on the actual motive behind the killing, but all signs point to it being linked to dissatisfaction with our health insurance system. And we need to remember that Brian Thompson was a human being with a family. So calling his death justified is despicable.

It’s the health insurance payment system and healthcare pricing for goods and services that is despicable.

From STAT:

“The public’s dissatisfaction has never been higher. Recent polling data show the health care system is as unpopular now as it was before the Affordable Care Act went into effect 15 years ago — a time when insurers could decline to cover people if they had any number of pre-existing health conditions and nearly 49 million people lacked insurance. A survey from Gallup released Friday reveals that “Americans’ positive rating of the quality of health care in the U.S. is now at its lowest point” since 2001.”

“Roughly 25 million Americans remain uninsured. Tens of millions of others have health insurance but can’t afford their deductibles, coinsurance, or copays due to the high prices of tests, surgeries, and prescription drugs….These barriers aren’t just a nuisance — they can have real effects on patients’ health.”

The KFF foundation reports that 100 million Americans have medical debt, and its highly doubtful that they can afford to pay it down. Even people with platinum forms of coverage face long waits coordinating the complex and uncoordinated delivery of their health care, as Wrongo knows firsthand.

After getting care, patients are inundated with medical bills they don’t understand — perplexed why their insurer isn’t advocating on their behalf, and fearful that hospitals and other providers will send them to collections or sue them.

It’s all part of a health care system that is projected to spend $5 trillion this year, eating further into workers’ wages. Those who feel most aggrieved often are the sickest. Most people are generally satisfied with their health insurance. However, people who have more health conditions and therefore need to get care more frequently don’t like their coverage nearly as much as healthier people, according to polling from KFF.

So, the more they know you, the more they dislike you. People are feeling a sense of helplessness in trying to address this mammoth commercial insurance industry that’s putting restraints on people’s ability to get care. When you feel that sense of helplessness is when you end up having situations like this. People don’t really know what else to do.

The murder of the CEO and the public’s reaction reveals that:

Americans are blindingly angry, and not just with the healthcare system.
Due process is no longer trusted. Have enough money and you’re likely to buy your way out of a bad situation. The FTC says Twitter must comply with the consent decree and Elon Musk just doesn’t do it. The government is no match for the rich. Money can insulate you from so much.
Vigilante justice has become a solution in some places because of the lack of due process.

We’re entering a period that is very similar to the Gilded Age of the 1880s and the 1930s.

Our social contract is in free fall. And the Trump administration’s proposed cabinet officers will make it worse.

What will happen in a country with 400 million guns and 320 million people? Things may go downhill quickly. Never forget, most change is fomented by individuals. A fruit vendor in Tunisia ignited the Arab Spring.

Is this the start of change in America? One person gunning down an insurance company executive?

Wrongo doesn’t condone the shooting. At this point we have no motive. But what we do know makes you think about our broken health care system and the overcompensation of the people who run it. They’re getting rich on our illnesses. They take our money and then, don’t pay.

Ain’t that America.