Author: wrongologist

The Art Of The Bad Deal

The Daily Escape:

You cannot negotiate with a market. You can manipulate it, but in the long run markets do what they do. From the NYT :

“A sharp sell-off in US government bond markets and the dollar has set off fears about the growing fallout from President Trump’s tariffs, raising questions about what is typically seen as the safest corner for investors during times of turmoil.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries — the benchmark for a wide variety of debt — whipsawed on Wednesday after Mr. Trump paused the bulk of the levies he had threatened the week before and raised the rates charged on Chinese goods after that country retaliated. The reversal sent U.S. stocks soaring.”

And the bond market is not having any of Trump’s nonsense. We nearly had a major financial crisis. This is the part you don’t know. The bond markets freaking out means that, unchecked, we were maybe a week away from possible bank failures.

We’re talking about the market for US Treasury bonds—normally among the safest assets in the world. They started convulsing, along with the stock market. The yield on 10-year Treasuries leapt to 4.5%, up from 3.9% days earlier. That meant bond prices, which move inversely to yields, had cratered. The failure of both risky and supposedly safe assets at once, threatened to destabilize the financial system itself.

Why did the bond markets start to collapse? There was a technical reason, which was that losses in the stock market were so severe and widespread that hedge funds needed to sell bonds to cover losses. And money managers moved away from the slumping US dollar.

But more than that was a general, widespread loss of confidence In the US itself.

So what happened was something like this. Whatever sane minds are in the Oval Office probably desperately tried to warn Trump that we were indeed likely just a few days away from bank failures. That if the catastrophic fire-sale of US government bonds didn’t stop, the consequences would be ruinous.

From JV Last:

“William Cohan had an excellent explanation last night of where the bond market is after Trump’s tariff pause”:

The bond market can be broadly understood as a device that measures risk. The riskier an economic environment is, the higher the yield on bonds goes.

Over the course of Trump’s brief tariff regime the 10-year yield on T-bills went from 3.86% to 4.54% —a 17.6% climb in less than a week. That’s a screaming klaxon alarm.

Yesterday, after Trump announced his 90-day pause, the yield only dropped back to 4.4%. Which suggests that the bond market was not especially reassured.

One of the big risks is China. China holds $760b in US Treasuries. Should the Chinese decide to lower their purchasing of T-bills at the next auction, that will drive up the yield as the Treasury Department has to make them more attractive in the face of slackening demand. Which would in turn ratchet the entire bond market up another level of fear.

Why do bonds matter? Because bonds are how people finance debt—they are a rough approximation of the belief that it is safe to extend credit. And without credit, financial markets can’t function.

It’s all about risk. From Larry Summers: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“Long-term interest rates are gapping up, even as the stock market moves sharply downwards. This highly unusual pattern suggests a generalized aversion to US assets in global financial markets. We are being treated by global financial markets like a problematic emerging market.”

Donald Trump’s erratic and foolish actions have turned America, the most desirable financial haven in the world, into a whirlpool of risk. The safest way to conduct business now is to limit exposure to the US to the greatest extent possible. From the NYT: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“The chaos that has followed last week’s announcement has made companies wary about adding more upheaval with a drastic change to their supply chains. Faced with constant flux and unpredictability, companies are choosing to stay with what they know: longstanding relationships with Chinese suppliers or manufacturing partners.”

Driving multinationals deeper into relationships with China is not the art of the deal. It’s the destruction of stability and the start of a long, slow slide into a vortex.

Consider if you were to make an offer to buy a house: Would your opening bid be 50% of the asking price and would you expect a counter-offer? No, that’s bad faith negotiating. That’s pretty much what this tariff rollout has been like. “Let me start with the most ridiculous thing I can come up with and see if they bite!” The seller would tell you to go F yourself and find someone else to buy the home.

The whole world is going to do this. We’re going to carve ourselves out of a seat at the table.

Let Scott Galloway have the last word:

“The definition of stupid is hurting others while hurting yourself. Let’s hope the Republicans riding shotgun will realize the guy with his hand on the wheel is crazy.

My prediction: Xi will not back down. With Trump, he’s come to the same conclusion as Succession’s Logan Roy re his own kids: ‘You are not serious people.’”

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Mobilize Congress Against Trump’s Tariffs

The Daily Escape:

America is staring into an economic black hole because of Tariff Man. “America” as a country is no longer a democracy. And its government is no longer a legitimate government. Trump is now an Occupying Regime. Individual American states may have legitimate governments, but the Federal government is not.

The market crashed because tariffs are bad for corporations. Tariffs extract taxes from companies. Many companies involved in foreign trade would otherwise not pay significant income taxes in the US. Hence, stock prices fall. The market understands that perfectly, despite the relentless BS in the media that tariffs are a sales tax for consumers, they primarily hit corporations.

Passing on higher tariff costs to consumers is very hard for most consumer products. They cause sales to plunge, as Americans hate higher prices. And then, with sales dropping, corporations are forced to roll back their price increases.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) says the Trump tariffs aren’t about economics at all. Rather, he says Trump’s plan should be viewed as a political tool to win loyalty from industrial sectors of the US economy.

In a lengthy thread on X, Murphy said the president will use potential relief from the tariffs to gain fealty from private industry. (Excerpts of Murphy’s thread by Wrongo)

“Those trying to understand the tariffs as economic policy are dangerously naive. No, the tariffs are a tool to collapse our democracy. A means to compel loyalty from every business that will need to petition Trump for relief. This week you will read many confused economists and political pundits who won’t understand how the tariffs make economic sense.

That’s because they don’t. They aren’t designed as economic policy. The tariffs are simply a …super dangerous political tool.”

More: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“….our founders created a President with limited and checked powers. They specifically put the power of spending and taxation in the hands of the legislature. Why? Because they watched how kings and despots used spending and taxes to control their subjects. British kings used taxation to reward loyalty and punish dissent. Our own revolution was spurred by the King’s use of heavy taxation of the colonies to punish our push for self-governance.

The King’s message was simple: stop protesting and I’ll stop taxing.”

More: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“Trump knows that he can weaken…democracy by using spending and taxation in the same way. He is using access to government funds to bully universities, law firms and state and local governments into loyalty pledges….The tariffs are Trump’s tool to erode that independence. Now, one by one, every industry or company will need to pledge loyalty to Trump in order to get sanctions relief. The tariffs are DESIGNED to create economic hardship. Why? So that Trump has a straight face rationale for releasing them, business by business or industry by industry.

As he adjusts or grants relief, it’s a win-win: the economy improves and dissent disappears….The tariffs are Trump’s tool to erode that independence. Now, one by one, every industry or company will need to pledge loyalty to Trump in order to get sanctions relief. The tariffs aren’t economic policy. They are political weapons. But as long as we see this clearly, we can stop him. Public mobilization is working. Today, a few Republicans joined Democrats to vote against one set of tariffs. The people still have the power.”

Murphy is suggesting that where tariffs are concerned, Trump is a common enemy of both the American people and its corporations. Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of Senators led by Iowa Republican Chuck Grassley and Sen. Maria Cantwell, a Democrat from Washington, introduced the Trade Review Act of 2025. The bill would require the president to notify Congress of any new tariff within 48 hours of its imposition. And any new tariffs would need to be approved by Congress within 60 days or they would expire.

Murphy speaks to public mobilization. Americans in the streets is the only way to apply enough pressure to Republicans in Congress to take action to rein in Trump. If those who’ve never joined a street protest before needed a good reason to join their neighbors in the streets tomorrow, the world has one this week.

Trump’s tariff plan sent stocks off the cliff. Even Americans with little of their life’s savings in the markets can read that chart. And the headlines.

Indivisible, a grass roots activist group who works to hold Congress accountable, reported Thursday night that 514,000 had signed up to attend 1,000 events in all 50 states tomorrow. Even with a 50% flake rate, that’s a quarter of a million people in the streets. And Indivisible saw a 25% increase in signups since Thursday morning. Fewer pissed-off Americans will flake at future rallies.

Because Trump has declared war on both the American people and its corporations, there is nothing immoral or seditious about Chris Murphy and the others offering thoughts on how to blunt or overturn Trump’s tariff scheme.

There is nothing seditious about We The People taking to the streets either.

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Cory Booker’s Speech

The Daily Escape:

On August 29, 1957, Sen. Strom Thurmond (R-SC) completed 24 hours and 18 minutes of filibuster on the Senate floor against the Civil Rights Act of 1957. The bill passed two hours after the filibuster and was signed into law by President Eisenhower.

On Tuesday night, Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) exceeded that record for a one-person Senate floor speech. His is not technically a filibuster, because he didn’t do it as part of the discussion of a particular bill. But he outlasted the white supremacist from the 1950s.

On the floor of the Senate, Booker invoked the late Rep. John Lewis of Georgia, who had been one of the original Freedom Riders challenging racial segregation in 1961. In 1965, Lewis had his skull fractured by police on the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Alabama as he marched with protesters on their way to Montgomery to demand their voting rights be protected.

Booker reminded us that Lewis was famous for telling people to “get in good trouble, necessary trouble.” Booker said that in the years since Trump took office, he has been asking himself, “How am I living up to his words?” He was majestic and poignant, plain-spoken and fiery. He gave Democrats a reason to hope about the future of the resistance in the Democratic Party.

Rather than whining about “being the minority” and “having no legislative power,” he used his only political asset: His voice.

Senator Booker did what desperate Democrats have been begging their leaders to do: Speak up, make good trouble, raise a ruckus, and rally the faithful! It was his finest moment. Sen. Booker ended his speech with these words:

“This is a moral moment. It is not left or right. It is right or wrong. Let’s get in good trouble. Madame President, I yield the floor.”

The above was delivered after 25 hours of non-stop “on-his-feet” filibustering. An obviously exhausted Booker none-the-less delivered an emotional and powerful closing. (See ABC News / YouTube): Cory Booker ends record-breaking Senate speech with tribute to late John Lewis.

From JVL:

“To those saying Booker’s filibuster didn’t achieve anything, I agree. It was the voice of one crying in the wilderness. It was a call.

And calls can mean something, even if they don’t “achieve” results.

It meant something to know that Booker has seen the same things we’re seeing and that these things made an impression on him, too.

It meant something to know that Booker understands the moment.

It meant something to know that there are more of us than we believed.

It meant something to know that others are willing to stand up, too.”

More:

“That’s what Cory Booker’s filibuster was about. He realized that in order to get people to pay attention, he had to do something extraordinary. There are only a hundred people on the planet who are allowed to filibuster. He is one of them. So he used the platform he had.”

By daring to step into a leadership role in the Democratic resistance, his historic effort should motivate other Democrats to engage in bolder, more aggressive pushback than has been the status quo in Congress to date.

This is necessary because there’s a palpable level of agitation and discontent across America, and other than Bernie and AOC, Democrats are not tapping into it. Our politicians shouldn’t be on listening tours, they should be stirring up the populace, showing a path forward. And there is a demand for it. The Hill reported that: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“More than 350 million people liked Sen. Cory Booker’s (D-NJ) floor speech on TikTok live, as the senator approached 25 hours of holding the floor in the Senate chamber.”

Democratic politicians must leave DC, where they say they have almost no power, and return to their districts and stir up the public. Have rallies. Otherwise, everybody’s going to just go on with their own life until we’re living in the American equivalent of Hungary.

Like Booker, all Democrats need to tap into the anger Americans are feeling. Show the Republicans that the country isn’t behind them. We have to force the issue; they have to own the consequences of their actions.

Trump’s incompetence at governing has to be highlighted every day. Right now, Dems aren’t making Trump’s incompetence the main issue. They are reacting to the latest tariff outrage.

Booker has stepped up. People don’t care if it’s technically a filibuster. He has held the floor for more than 24 hours to highlight Trump-Musk wrongdoing. He has spoken words on the Senate floor that we’ve needed to hear. He has mobilized a majority of Democratic Senators. Courage is contagious.

We need to rally against the nihilism and cruelty of Trump’s authoritarian moment.

This can be the turning point if Democrats must whip up the voters to disrupt the tsunami of destruction Elon and Trump have begun.

Let’s have more of this.

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Greenland Says “No” To Vance

The Daily Escape:

From Timothy Snyder:

“Musk-Trump inherited a state with unprecedented power and functionality, and are taking it apart. They also inherited a set of alliances and relationships that underpinned the largest economy in world history. This too they are breaking.”

JD Vance along with his wife, visited an American base in Greenland for three hours. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and his wife also came along. The context was Trump’s claim that America must take Greenland, which is an autonomous region of Denmark.

While there, the Americans’ Greenland charm offensive mission failed, and JD signaled the end of NATO.

At the base, in the far north of the island, the American visitors had pictures taken and ate lunch with servicemen and servicewomen. They used the base as the backdrop to a press conference where nothing sensible was said. Vance, who never left the base, and has never before visited Greenland, was quite sure how Greenlanders should live. He made a political appeal to Greenlanders, none of whom was present. He claimed that Denmark was not protecting the security of Greenlanders in the Arctic, and that the US would. Greenland should therefore join the United States.

From Jon V Last:

“NATO is dead. It has been obvious since November 5 that the alliance was not viable in the long run, but it was able to continue in zombie-form for five months.

Vance’s appearance in Greenland last week was the stake through its heart.

It is one thing for American leadership to relentlessly criticize its allies.

It is another thing for America to openly side with Russia against European interests.

But to stand on European soil and talk about taking territory from a treaty ally is something else altogether.”

After Trump’s election Wrongo thought it was possible to believe that America would become indifferent to the NATO countries. It’s now clear that the US sees at least some of these former allies as prey. There can be no mistake about this.

So what would a serious European response look like?

It starts with nuclear weapons. Europe needs more of them. The best way to protect the EU is to protect Denmark. And the best way to protect Denmark is to push closer to North America and make it clear to the US that it cannot operate with impunity even in its near-abroad, let alone on the European continent.

It will be difficult for a non-nuclear power to make an independent dash to nuclear capability. But the British and French have respectable pre-existing nuclear forces. Between them, they possess about 515 nuclear warheads. The British nukes are entirely submarine-based. The French forces are split between ballistic-missile subs and air-launched cruise missiles.

The obvious solution is the creation of a separate Anglo-French nuclear umbrella that is extended to EU nations, including Greenland. Once this nuclear umbrella has been formally extended, the European nations can then backfill various military needs. Here’s military affairs professor James Cameron:

“A new generation of conventional precision-strike systems should supplement the Anglo-French nuclear forces. Non-nuclear allies such as Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, and the Nordic states could provide such systems, possibly through joint production. . . . Coordination of these nuclear and non-nuclear efforts should be institutionalized in a European equivalent of the existing NATO Nuclear Planning Group, in which France does not currently participate.”

While they’re at it, the British and the French ought to offer to bring Canada under their protection.

That NATO is dead as an American-led alliance doesn’t mean that NATO can’t default to becoming an EU-led alliance + Turkey. If Wrongo were one of the core Eurozone nations (UK, Germany, France), he would be looking at bringing Canada, Australia, and New Zealand into the fold since the US is no longer a reliable partner.

More from JVL:

“Please note the level of complexity here. America talks about taking Greenland, which is a threat to the people of Greenland, but also a threat to Denmark, which is obligated to provide for Greenland’s security.

But the necessary responses will have to come from London and Paris. Because the reality is that because the United States is breaking the NATO alliance, European security will have to be led by NATO’s other two nuclear powers.”

Is Trump serious about Greenland? Who knows. The US would gain nothing but additional costs and unnecessary tensions with its European allies by pursuing free association with Greenland. In fact, free association would spoil what is a near-perfect arrangement for the US, as Washington is already achieving its geostrategic objectives, while letting Denmark foot the bill for running Greenlandic society. Abandoning the cheap and successful engagement strategy would be an unforced error that would only benefit America’s adversaries.

Both Trump and JD have made it quite clear that they consider the NATO countries to be irrelevant at best and potential enemies at worst. Trump is looking at Greenland like it’s a vulture capital deal.

Remember, this is the man who unilaterally changed the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.

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GOP Very Concerned About Florida Special Election

The Daily Escape:

While Mike Waltz bumbles about in Washington, the special election for his old Congressional seat is drawing near: Floridians will go to the polls on April 1. That race was supposed to be a layup for Republicans, but some of them are starting to get pretty stressed about it.

In November, Waltz won his district by 33 points. But a new poll from St. Pete’s Polls in Florida has the race between Republican Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil within the margin of error. From Axios:

“Private GOP polling is even scarier for Republicans: A recent survey by Tony Fabrizio, who was a chief strategist for Trump in 2024, has Fine with just a three percentage point lead, according to a person familiar with the data.”

Per Florida Politics: (brackets by Wrongo)

“The results [in the St. Pete’s Polls] show Fine winning just over 48% of the vote, while Weil received just over 44%. The poll of 403 likely voters in CD 6 was conducted on March 22. Pollsters report a 4.9% margin of error, greater than Fine’s lead.”

It’s a tiny poll, meaning the results could go either way.

Axios also reported that among those polled who said they already voted, more than half supported the Democrat. Weil leads 51% to 43% among those whose decision has already been made via a mail-in ballot or in-person early voting. According to the survey, about 38% of likely voters have already cast their ballots in the race.

That means Fine will have to make up the difference with those who vote between now and the close of polls on Tuesday, if he intends to move into Congress. He has already submitted an irrevocable resignation letter from the Florida Senate to run.

Weil has also outraised Fine by a lot, hauling in almost $10 million—a large sum for such a small race.

Link that news up with Trump pulling Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) nomination as UN Ambassador after last-minute panic about Fine’s electoral chances. More from Axios:

“Stefanik has waited for months on her nomination due to the House GOP’s tiny margin. The Florida special elections are Tuesday, but the administration has gotten cold feet about its margin ahead of crucial votes.”

Stefanik’s nomination as UN Ambassador was expected to move forward on Wednesday, April 2 — the day after the Florida specials, when the GOP would have added one seat to its slim majority. Stefanik had at least some bipartisan support in the Senate before the administration’s moves to completely dismantle the US Agency for International Development without any Congressional input or authorization. In response, some Democrats have subsequently vowed to block all Trump nominees for key foreign policy posts. This could gum up the works for a Senate confirmation for Trump’s next UN pick even if it turns out to be Stefanik.

Politico reports that for the past several months:

“Stefanik had held briefing sessions to dive deep on pressing international policy issues from China to the war in Sudan, according to three people familiar with the conversations. She also dispatched some of her closest aides in her congressional office to jobs at the State Department, including her deputy chief of staff…in preparation for her being confirmed as Trump’s UN envoy.”

Eventually Stefanik will leave the House, but It’s unclear if the Florida race is a harbinger for a tough midterm election cycle for Republicans, or just another case of a bad candidate screwing up a winnable situation.

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Trump Extorts Big Law Firm

The Daily Escape:

From Charlie Sykes:

“…I regret to tell you that the Great Grovel continues — as Big Law, universities, and the media join the feverish scramble of fear and favor, principle be damned. They tell themselves that collective resistance is futile and that surrender in advance will protect them from Trumpist revenge….Over the weekend, Columbia University yielded to the Trump Administration’s demands; and the law firm of Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison caved to his threats.”

(The firm is usually referred to as Paul, Weiss).

The firm, which had revenue last year of more than $2.6 billion, agreed to represent clients of any political affiliation and donate a staggering $40 million in pro bono work to support Trump’s agenda.

If that sounds like giving Trump control over how the firm chooses at least some of its clients and causes it supports, that’s exactly what Paul, Weiss did.

They agreed to these conditions to get Trump to rescind his executive order (EO) suspending security clearances for firm employees, restricting their access to federal buildings, and instructing agency heads to limit employee contact with the firm. Those restrictions would have seriously compromised the firm’s ability to handle cases related to government employees or government matters.

But when you negotiate with an extortionist, the game never ends. Predictably, Paul, Weiss’s surrender triggered an even more aggressive and toxic attack on the legal profession by Trump.  

Andrew Weissman offered this warning: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“The concerted attacks on lawyers, law firms, and judges. are coordinated strategy to discredit and intimidate legal actors who dare to challenge the Trump administration. At stake is preservation of the ability of our legal system to function without fear or favor. When lawyers are targeted for representing unpopular clients, and judges face threats for upholding the law, we risk undoing the very prerequisites that make justice possible.”

From Lisa Needham: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“Paul, Weiss…is the first to buckle in the face of an attack by…Trump, but it definitely will not be the last. The capitulation of one of the nation’s most prominent law firms is the worst sort of complying in advance, and its complete surrender immediately emboldened Trump to issue a new directive threatening any lawyer who sues the administration.”

Paul, Weiss managing partner Brad Karp sent a firm-wide letter explaining why he chose to say uncle so swiftly. He explained that Trump’s EO functionally threatened Paul, Weiss’s clients with the loss of their government contracts and access to the government if they continued to use the firm. Karp said he initially hoped the legal industry would “rally to our side,” but that didn’t happen. In fact, big law firm competitors tried to recruit Paul, Weiss partners and directly solicit their clients.

The firm at first planned to file a lawsuit challenging the executive order, as the firm Perkins Coie did when Trump recently targeted that firm with a similar EO. Perkins Coie won a temporary restraining order (TRO) blocking much of the EO from taking effect, with the judge saying Trump’s order was probably unconstitutional. But this didn’t deter Trump, who issued the executive order against Paul, Weiss three days after the Perkins Coie TRO was granted.

Trump just continued shopping for a law firm to extort.

Trump also used his Friday announcement to attack one particular lawyer by name, Marc Elias. From the NYT:

“Mr. Elias previously worked at Perkins Coie, and has long represented Democrats. Mr. Trump blames Mr. Elias, among others, for a dossier of unsubstantiated allegations about his links to Russia that was investigated by the FBI in 2016 and 2017.”

Elias said in a written statement:

“President Trump’s goal is clear. He wants lawyers and law firms to capitulate and cower until there is no one left to oppose his administration in court….There will be no negotiation with this White House about the clients we represent or the lawsuits we bring on their behalf.”

You know that Trump isn’t finished with Paul, Weiss. There will be innumerable demands. What if Trump is dissatisfied with the quality of the pro bono work? What if Paul, Weiss loses the pro bono cases? What if Trump disputes how the $40 million is accounted for?

We’re truly at a Vichy moment in American history, and that slope is very slippery. Appeasement doesn’t end well. There will be no end to the negotiations or the threats.

Paul Weiss will become a diminished law firm. They could lose clients who subscribe to the thinking: “If they won’t fight for themselves, how hard will they fight for us?”

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Destruction of Government by Elon (DOGE)

The Daily Escape:

It used to be that In America, one truism of politics is that Social Security (SS) is the “third rail”: You mess with it at your political peril. Republicans have never liked Social Security. They voted against it when it was passed in 1935, and they have been trying to get rid of it in the 90 years since then.

But the problem is that SS is one of the most successful programs created by the government. It has reduced poverty among seniors from nearly 40% to only about 10% (and SS provides at least a subsistence level of income to that remaining 10%). It provides an income for people with disabilities who cannot work. And it has never added a penny to the national debt. Justifiably, it is a very popular program with Americans.

Because of its popularity, Republicans have never been able to abolish the program ̶   but they keep trying. In 2005, GW Bush wanted to privatize SS (putting seniors at risk by putting their money in the stock market). That led to a huge political blowback, and Bush dropped the idea.

Across the years, Trump has consistently promised not to touch Social Security, except now Musk’s DOGE may break Trump’s promise. Musk’s agency almost cut off phone  service for people filing SS claims, and stopped only after the WaPo raised a stink:

“The Social Security Administration
abandoned plans it was considering to end phone service for millions of Americans filing retirement and disability claims after The Washington Post reported that Elon Musk’s US DOGE Service team was weighing the change to root out alleged fraud
The shift would have directed elderly and disabled people to rely on the internet and in-person field offices to process their claims, curtailing a service that 73 million Americans have relied on for decades to access earned government benefits.

However, Social Security and White House officials said the administration will still move ahead with another far more limited element of the original proposal: Customers will no longer be able to change a direct deposit routing number or other bank information by phone.”

The phone service change may not be happening, but Elon is still gunning for Social Security. This is from March 11:

“Elon Musk pushed debunked theories about Social Security on Monday while describing federal benefit programs as rife with fraud, suggesting they will be a primary target in his crusade to reduce government spending
.“Most of the federal spending is entitlements,” Musk told the Fox Business Network. “That’s the big one to eliminate.’”

Musk also called Social Security “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time”, and has promised to cut the Social Security Administration’s workforce by 12%.

DOGE can’t actually abolish Social Security. But it can seriously damage it to the extent that the agency wouldn’t be able to deliver checks on time, wouldn’t be able to help recipients make needed changes, and won’t be able to effectively register new retirees. And once the agency can no longer function effectively, Congressional Republicans will step in to “reform” it. They will do that by substantially cutting benefits, or privatizing the program. Probably the latter, because that will benefit moguls on Wall Street.

In February, Trump reassured the nation that:

“Social Security will not be touched, it will only be strengthened, and an unnamed White House official told NBC that “Musk’s personal opinions about Social Security have no impact on Trump’s policies.”

Is Trump really willing to mess with Social Security payments? And if not, why is his administration acting like it’s getting ready to do that? What would be the political upside to broadcasting that you’re going to screw with America’s favorite entitlement program, and then not actually doing it?

What is clear is that the Trump administration doesn’t particularly seem like they’re governing with an eye to future elections. Old people vote in large numbers, and if you stop them from getting the checks they need to live — or even threaten to do so — you’re putting yourself in grave electoral danger.

And if Trump’s team isn’t worried about future elections
well, that’s even more deeply concerning.

The DOGE effort is the newest attempt by Republicans to attack Social Security. It gives the GOP some cover by letting DOGE do the dirty work. But only SS has the huge budget that Republicans want to get their hands on.

This is the latest effort by Republicans to get rid of Social Security (and Medicare and Medicaid). By gutting these funds, they will have the money for huge giveaways to the rich (and especially the super-rich).

They have always been the party of and for the rich. They really don’t care about the needs of the poor, the working class, or the middle class.

This attack on Social Security proves that.

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Trump’s Art Of The Deal Hurts Sales Of The F-35

The Daily Escape:

The Black Pearl, Outer Banks, NC – March 2025 photo by Jim Feaster

Several countries are reconsidering procurement of Lockheed’s F-35 fighter given Trump’s unreliability as a military partner. Many but not all, are NATO partners, like Germany, Canada and Portugal and Turkey. It seems clear that Trump doesn’t understand NATO is basically a captive export market for US war products!

Take Germany:

“As the rift between the United States and the European Union continues to widen, German security experts are concerned that the Donald Trump administration could pull a “kill switch” on the F-35 Lightning II fighters that Germany is acquiring from the US. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany decided to procure 35 F-35 jets from the United States in March 2022, along with missiles and other armaments, for about 10 billion euros (US$10.89 billion).

A kill switch is typically believed to be a software-based backdoor mechanism which could be used by the supplier of a technology to disable or deteriorate the operation of a system, in this particular case, the F-35 stealth fighter jets.”

Or Canada:

“Canada is actively looking at potential alternatives to the US-built F-35 stealth fighter and will hold conversations with rival aircraft makers, Defence Minister Bill Blair said late Friday, just hours after being reappointed to the post as part of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s new cabinet… The re-examination in this country is taking place amid the bruising political fight with the Trump administration over tariffs and threats from the American president to annex Canada by economic force….

There has been a groundswell of support among Canadians to kill the $19-billion purchase and find aircraft other than those manufactured and maintained in the United States.”

Or Portugal:

“Portugal is getting cold feet about replacing its US-made F-16 fighter jets with more modern F-35s because of Donald Trump — in one of the first examples of the US president undermining a potential lucrative arms deal.”

The country’s air force has recommended buying Lockheed Martin F-35s, but when outgoing Defense Minister was asked by Portuguese media PĂșblico whether the government would follow that recommendation, he replied:

“We cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our choices. The recent position of the United States, in the context of NATO 
 must make us think about the best options, because the predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account.”

The ministry added a series of criteria that will be considered by Lisbon, including: “The geopolitical context” and “The extent of restrictions on the use of aircraft.”(Kill switch)

Or Turkey:

“Turkey has submitted a request to purchase 40 Typhoon fighter jets from BAE Systems….The request has been sent to the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom, which is to make a decision on the sale of the aircraft and the export of British technology to Turkey.

The implementation of this potential export contract will be entrusted to the United Kingdom, namely to BAE Systems.

In 2022, Turkey began to consider the Eurofighter Typhoon as a temporary solution to modernize its air force, especially after the country’s original exclusion from the F-35 program and the ban on their sale due to Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system.”

The F-35 is a massive arms program that tied together the technological and military fortunes of the Global North and bound NATO to Northeast Asia and Australia. One of the key selling points of the aircraft is that it comes with the promise of US technological integration and US security support. Those things are now in jeopardy, even before Musk sinks his tentacles into the program.

There are already concerns about the US attaching “strings” to arms sales, even to our allies, and seeing the US disable certain capabilities of F-16s in Ukraine where Trump cut off intelligence and delivery of arms did nothing to encourage other nations to purchase our planes.

When US defense contractors develop new weapons, they game out how many orders they expect to receive, and over what time frame they can expect income from those sales. If they find out late in the game that the orders they expected are not going to come in, they may try to get the US DOD to pick up some of the development costs that would have been covered by late orders.

It will be curious to see the extent to which the kind of comments coming from the Portuguese, the Canadians and the Swiss (also claiming Trump an unreliable partner) show up in Wall Street analyst reports on Lockheed Martin and its many F-35 subcontractors.

Trump thinks he can force the world to do business on his terms. He’s going to impose tariffs on all countries and plans on easing tariffs on those countries that will do his bidding. “Play ball with me, and I’ll be nice to you. If you balk, you won’t be able to sell anything to me. I will isolate you, and the countries that play by my rules will isolate you and destroy your economy.”

He banks on having most countries accept his bullying as the cost of doing business with the US.

Wait until he finds out that countries have high quality options when it comes to buying weapons. It will take a generation to fix what Trump has destroyed in less than two months, starting with trust in America. They won’t want to vacation here, buy our products, or work with us because of one man who gets off on being a loud mouth and a bully.

It’s going to be a long four years.

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First They Came For The Communists

The Daily Escape:

Provincetown, MA, March 2025 photo by Marty Cowden

Wrongo hasn’t written since January, and there are two primary reasons. First, his overwhelming feeling of helplessness when the Democrats lost both Houses of Congress along with returning Trump to the White House. Truly, the Dems can’t be forgiven for their meek performance since November.

Second, chemotherapy and radiation can ruin your attention span: It is difficult to read anything long-form, much less write connected sentences. On the other hand, I’m having more good days than bad right now.

But today let’s gear up to talk about the arrest by Trump’s Department of Homeland Security of Mahmoud Khalil, a recent Columbia University graduate and green card holder, over his participation in protests at Columbia against Israel’s bombing of Gaza.

On Saturday Khalil was arrested by ICE agents in New York City and swiftly moved to a detention facility in Louisiana while the government attempts to deport him.

The NYT reported: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“A spokeswoman for the Department of Homeland Security…said in a statement on Sunday night that Mr. Khalil had been arrested “in support of President Trump’s executive orders prohibiting antisemitism.”

‘Khalil led activities aligned to Hamas, a designated terrorist organization…’

Aligned”? So, Khalil was arrested for wrong-think. Charlie Pierce asks in Esquire:

“So we’re disappearing people now? Nice to know…Are we now allowing the rendition of legal residents to black sites in the United States?”

More from the NYT:

“Secretary of State Marco Rubio shared a link on X to a news article about Mr. Khalil’s arrest and issued a broad promise: ‘We will be revoking the visas and/or green cards of Hamas supporters in America so they can be deported.’”

We are six weeks into Trump 2.0 and we now have federal agents going door to door to illegally arrest people who have taken political positions the administration dislikes. It’s a long way from demonstrating on a college campus to collaborating with Hamas. So the Constitution and the law is firmly on Mr. Khalil’s side, assuming that he hasn’t already been disappeared beyond the reach of the judicial system.

Until there’s a complete airing of the reasons for Khalil’s detention, Wrongo has no problem believing this to be an attack on protected political speech—and a dress rehearsal for what this administration has planned if widespread protests of its other policies break out.

Update:

“On Monday, a federal judge in Manhattan ordered the government not to remove Mr. Khalil from the United States while the judge reviewed a petition challenging the legality of his detention. Mr. Khalil’s lawyers also filed a motion on Monday asking the judge to compel the federal government to transfer him back to New York.”

From Trump on social media:

“’We know there are more students at Columbia and other Universities across the Country who have engaged in pro-terrorist, anti-Semitic, anti-American activity, and the Trump Administration will not tolerate it…If you support terrorism, including the slaughtering of innocent men, women, and children, your presence is contrary to our national and foreign policy interests, and you are not welcome here. We expect every one of America’s Colleges and Universities to comply…’”

Whether you agree with the Gaza protests or not, the action of Trump 2.0 against Khalil appears to be another example of the systematic attack on the First Amendment from all sides that is becoming SOP for the Trump administration.

The Trump administration has made Columbia the first target of its push to punish what the President has deemed elite schools’ failures to protect Jewish students during campus protests.

On Friday, the administration announced that it had canceled $400 million in grants and contracts to Columbia. In a social media post last week, Mr. Trump vowed to punish individual protesters his administration considered “agitators.”

Martin Niemöller’s unforgettable “First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out” applies here. The quote was about Hitler and the Holocaust and was a call to action against apathy.

Trump’s actions so far and threats of more to come need to be taken very seriously. With Trump and the MAGAs and oligarchs in control of the government, free speech is how they choose to define it at any particular moment.

If that isn’t fascism, then Wrongo doesn’t know what else to call it.

Maybe you can come up with a better descriptor. In the meantime, support your favorite free-speech advocacy group.

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Sleazy Politics

The Daily Escape:

You have to be shocked at the lack of grace, empathy and compassion coming from Trump and the Right as this horrific fire emergency in Los Angles has unfolded. It’s human nature to point fingers and there are no doubt mistakes that we uncover as the city recovers. It’s also natural in such fast moving emergencies that wrong information will be disseminated even by officials you can rely on.

But the Right Wing media, influencers and Republican politicians have been callous about this ghastly event, even for them. Most Americans outside LA are showing compassion and empathy. Most know some family member or friend who has lost a home. But Trump doesn’t do compassion.

People with compassion would ask “What would it be like if I had to flee my home with less than an hour’s notice” with all that comes with that? But Trump doesn’t do compassion. He sees this as political opportunities, blaming California governor Newsome before saying “Thousands of magnificent houses are gone, and many more will soon be lost”. His focus was the real estate, especially the upscale mansions, not the human tragedy. While Biden is using his last week, to get as much of FEMA’s available $27 billion out the door to L.A. as soon as possible, Trump is being cagey about whether he will provide any aid at all.

Musk also used the tragedy to bash the Los Angeles Fire Department for having some female firefighters. Musk actually tweeted “DEI means people DIE.”

This will not play well. It’s one thing when Trump is disdainful toward refugees. It’s another when he displays no compassion for middle- and upper-class Angelenos who played by the rules and lost everything.

Large-scale calamities cry out for moral leadership. But Trump and Musk are not moral leaders; they are amoral monsters. It’s impossible to envision Trump as Consoler-in-Chief. California and LA County are vital parts of the national economic engine. Threatening to hobble the LA region by withholding relief funds makes the moralizing and finger-wagging by clueless politicians and pundit personalities unbearable.

This isn’t what we should focus on:  An area larger than San Fransisco has burned down: In the middle of La’s winter, the rainy season. And the screeching about DEI and bad fire management helps no one.

What’s changing is the climate.

California was paradise because it had a Mediterranean climate. That climate is shifting north. California’s moving towards a new climate. The old vegetation, suited for the old climate, will go, occasionally in fire like this one. If you’re a Californian and you want the old climate, move north, because that’s where the Mediterranean climate is moving.

And California had floods not long ago. In some places, your home needs to be both fireproof and floodproof. You prepare for fire, flood, wind and power and water outages. All without property insurance.

People understand that Trump will feed the disinformation machine. They understand that when he tries to add conditions to the FEMA aid, that it’s a cheap stunt.

Fingers shouldn’t be pointed at firefighters or political leaders in the trenches who are tasked with saving lives and helping people recover from catastrophes caused by an existential threat.

They should be pointed at the people who refuse to do anything about the real crisis we’re facing.

Perhaps later, in another two or four years.

In the meantime, focus not on the politics, but on what can be done to help on the ground in LA.

 

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