Letâs make something clear. When Trump called Africa and Haiti âshitholesâ, the issue wasnât that the president swore in the Oval Office, that surely has happened with all modern presidents. No one in the media should have a fainting spell because Trump swears. The issue was saying we should promote immigration from predominantly white countries like Norway. That made what Trump said racist. It also places Trump out of the mainstream. Americans have always looked all over the world for talent, and then lured it to our shores.
People migrate primarily for wealth and/or safety, and since the early 1900s, America has offered both. That was the main reason many waves of Europeans came at first, and later, people from other, non-white places came to this country.
Bloomberg View offers some insight about African immigrants: (emphasis by Wrongo)
According to Census data, more than 43% of African immigrants hold a bachelorâs degree or higher — slightly more than immigrants from East Asia. Nigerian immigrants are especially educated, with almost two-thirds holding college degrees — a significantly higher percentage even than Chinese or South Korean immigrants…That education translates into higher household income. Nigerian-Americans, for instance, have a median household income well above the American average, and above the average of many white and Asian groups, such as those of Dutch or Korean descent.
Trump wrongly equates the worth of individuals with the place where they come from, probably like many of his supporters.
This is what Trump meant by strict vetting of immigrants:
Trumpâs staffer Steven Miller auditions as the new Lady Liberty:
Mueller asks to speak with Kaiser Tweeto:
Jeff Sessions goes after marijuana. It doesnât fully mellow him:
Why Florida is exempted from off-shore drilling:
Donny offered new words for the National Anthem when he went to the football game:
Wizard Island in winter. Crater Lake, OR – photo by Livid Narwhal
How do we avoid talking about him when he reveals himself so completely? We could split hairs, and discuss whether to call him a racist, or a white supremacist, but why bother? How is this any different from the way he’s always been? Â We’re talking about a guy who wanted the Central Park Five executed, and took out full page ads in the New York papers to say so at the time. They were later found innocent.
Trump has become the GOPâs id. He uses an air horn while the rest of them know to use a dog whistle. He asks:
Why are we having all these people from shithole countries come here? Why do we need more Haitians?
Answer: For the same reason your grandfather and mother fled their countries. Americans weren’t clamoring for more Germans and Scots in their day, either.
It is possible that his comment was calculated. The far right wasnât happy after Trump, during the bipartisan immigration photo op, showed off his stable genius skills, only to end up looking like he had no clue about the GOP’s immigration policy. GOP House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy tried reeling him back in, but the stable genius was insisting that the GOP try to give the Dems what they wanted on immigration and DACA.
Immigration is a red line for all deplorables. So maybe calling the countries of black and brown people “shitholes” was just the ticket, to let his base know he still has their backs. And then saying white immigrants “from Norway” are cool, drove it home.
This kind of talk has been normalized. White business leaders and politicians, as recently as the 1970s talked like that, and no one gave it a second thought. Since then, racist talk became shameful. But Trump’s open bigotry carries no shame for him, or for others who engage in it. His base loves him, because now they can come out of the closet with their hate.
And itâs ok, if you accept the argument that PC talk is a worse sin than showing your naked prejudices to the world.
This is how he was raised, and how people talk in his circle of friends. He’s mouthed off like this his entire life with zero consequences. Heâs not likely to suffer any consequences from this either. Remember, this is a man who doesn’t understand why we can’t actually use nuclear weapons.
We need to remember this every day until 11/06/2018. And every day after that until Trump can no longer hurt America.
Wrongo certainly requires soothing, and so do you. Maybe weâll go and see âThe Postâ this weekend, to remember a time when newspapers had the courage to take on a president.
In the meantime, sit back and make yourself a vente cup of Ethiopian Fancy ($19/lb.) from San Franciscoâs Henryâs House of Coffee. Now, put your feet up and listen to the âSonata in G Minor for Violoncello and Continuoâ by Henry Eccles. Eccles was an English violinist and composer in the Baroque era. He was a member of the Royal Band of Queen Anne. He moved to Paris, and entered the service of King Louis XIV. This recording has Simca Heled on violoncello and Edward Brewer on harpsichord, although it is often played with a double bass and piano, or violin and piano:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nI5NYRz7EQw
Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.
Snowy Landscape with Arles in the background â Vincent Van Gogh, 1888
A tradition at the Mansion of Wrong is to attend the annual New Yearâs Day Concert at the First Congregational Church of Washington CT, built in 1801. The concert is always by the New Baroque Soloists. This year, the church was packed, and among the guests were Tia Leoni and Tim Daly, the leads in the CBS series âMadam Secretaryâ. For the sixth year in a row, it was another inspiring performance by the New Baroque Soloists.
Now it is time for a few Wrong predictions about 2018, most of which will probably will be wrong:
The US economy as measured by GDP will grow at greater than 2% for 2018.
The US stock market as measured by the S&P 500 index will end 2018 with little or no growth over year-end 2017.
The Trump tax cuts will increase the deficit, and despite Paul Ryanâs best (or worst) efforts to push the country into austerity, that can will be kicked down the road for a few more years.
The Democrats will not take control of either the House or the Senate in the 2018 mid-term elections. The still-growing economy, and the pittance that increases paychecks from the Trump tax cut will help incumbents enough to forestall a wave election.
The Democrats will remain without real leadership or vision in 2018.
Cyber and other forms of meddling by people who wish our democracy harm will continue in the 2018 elections, to broader effect than in 2016.
Facebook and Google will be held to account for their failure to tamp down disinformation.
Trump will continue to flounder as the leader of the Free World, while his âfrenemiesâ in the GOP will continue to try to thwart him on domestic economic legislation.
There will be some form of bi-partisan accommodation on DACA.
Trumpâs public-private infrastructure deal will not pass the Senate.
The House will pass legislation that messes with Medicaid, but the Senate will not.
Trump will have the opportunity to appointanother Supreme Court Justice.
Trump will have a serious medical issue in 2018, but will not leave office, or be temporarily replaced by Pence.
Mueller: By March, MAGA will mean âMueller Ainât Going Awayâ. The storm will crest, a Russiagate conspiracy will be exposed, and crud will fly everywhere. This could lead to the Democrats taking control of one or both Houses.
A few additional Trumpets will go to jail, or be tied up in court. Trump will not be impeached by the 2018 Republicans. 2019 might bring a different calculus.
Tillerson and possibly other cabinet members will resign to âspend more time with familyâ.
#metoo will continue to dog politicians, Hollywood and the media.
Middle East:
Syria – by this time next year, the war will be essentially over. Assad will still be in power, and the US will be out of the picture. The Syrian Kurds will switch sides, and collaborate with the Assad regime.
Iran â the current protest movement will fizzle out. Neo-cons in Trumpâs administration will try to bring us close to war with Iran, but cooler heads at the Pentagon will prevail.
Famine and death in Yemen will continue to be ignored by everyone in the US.
Russia: Russia, China, and Iran will have a “come together” moment, possibly resulting in an agreement for mutual economic cooperation.
Russia will continue to face ongoing battles with the US, but Putin will persist.
Ukraine: The US delivery of anti-tank missiles to the Ukrainian army will not cause them to begin military operations in the east.
Europe: The right-wing authoritarian movements in the Eurozone and England will become a larger factor in their domestic politics. Brexit will occur, and no one in the UK will be happy about the outcome.
Will there be a war or âincidentâ with North Korea? Despite the scary politics, the Seoul Winter Olympics will keep the situation from escalating through June. The second half of 2018 could lead to some kind of incident between the US and NorKo, but will not be a nuclear incident.
A âblack swanâ event (an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect), could change everything for the President, the country and the world. Letâs hope that none occur in 2018.
Wrongo is not a futurist, or a stock-picker with mad skills. On January 2 2017 he made a series of predictions about the year to come. Letâs see how wrong he was:
There will be more global political and social turmoil:
 The EU could collapse: That didnât happen, as Macron soundly defeated LePen. OTOH, Merkel barely survived her election and May lost badly in a wrongly-played attempt to gain a super majority in the UK. Wrongo gets a âDâ in this prediction.
Chinaâs economy is wobbling: and it still is, but a command economy can create its own reality. Wrongo gets a âCâ.
The US will continue to lose influence globally despite âMr. Unpredictableâ becoming our Orange Overlord: Wrongo gets an âAâ. From Western Europe to the Middle East and Asia, there is not a single example of where Trump has put America in a position of greater influence in the past year. Except for Israel: they plan to name a train station after him. Â Think about it, what great man only gets a train station?
Trump arrives in the Oval Office as an overconfident leader, the man with no plan but with a short attention span, andwithin six months he will have his first major policy failure: Was his first policy failure the immigration ban? The North Korea diplomatic fiasco? The multiple attempts to repeal Obamacare? Walking out of the Trade Agreement, giving China a free hand in Asia? Give Wrongo an âAâ, except that Wrongo added:
This will make him more subdued, more conservative and less populist thereafter.
Trump was less subdued, less populist, and clearly more conservative as he played to his base. Give Wrongo a âBâ.
4. The triumvirate of Russia/Turkey/Iran will elbow the US firmly out of the Fertile Crescent, and secure friendly regimes in Damascus and Baghdad. An easy âAâ. Wrongo went on to say:
This will push American influence in the Middle East back to just the Gulf States, a weakened Saudi Arabia, and an increasingly isolated Israel.
A home run for Wrongo, but not for America.
Domestically, drug abuse, suicide, and general self-destructive behavior will continue to climb and become impossible to ignore: Sadly, another âAâ. Trumpâs declaration of the opioid crisis as a âHealth Emergencyâ was a public relations exercise with no plan about how to truly deal with the crisis. Wrongo also said:
The growing antibiotic resistance to main stream drugs will impact health in the US.
This is very true here, as well as globally. There is no political push to force drug companies to deal concretely with this issue.
6. The Trump stock market rally has already turned into the Santa Selloff: Â Give Wrongo an âFâ on this prediction. While the Dow closed 2016 at 19,719, we are looking to close 2017 above 24,000, up nearly 18% in the past year.
Meta Prediction: Some people who voted for Trump have incompatible outcomes in mind, so it’s a virtual guarantee that a sizable minority are going to feel cheated when they fail to get what they were promised: This was hard to get wrong, so give Wrongo a gentlemanâs âCâ. Wrongo went on to say:
OTOH, when Trump fails, most of his base will blame anyone but the Donald. The question is, when disillusionment sets in, will the reaction be a turning away, or a doubling down on the anger? Wrongo thinks anger will win out.
The coming Trump administration will seem like a fractious family outing: Just under half of the family (the âlandslideâ segment) wanted to take a ride, but now, the whole family has to go. Those who wanted to stay home will sulk in the back seat while Daddy tells them to shut up and stop bitching.
Meanwhile, once we are out of the driveway, it dawns on everyone that Daddy hasn’t decided yet where to go. Everyone pipes up with suggestions, but Daddy again tells everyone to shut up, because itâs his decision alone…Daddy wonât reveal the destination, but insists everyone will love it once they get there, even those who wanted to stay home, those who wanted to go to the beach, and those who wanted to head over the cliff like Thelma and Louise.
His concern is about the declining US birth rate. The Boston Globe reports that:
Ten years ago, the typical American woman had about 2.1 children. Today, it is about 1.77, representing a collapse in fertility on par with the declines in other countries that yielded Japanâs rapidly graying population in the 1990s, or Canadaâs massive present-day demand for immigrants.
From Ryanâs news conference: (parenthesis by Wrongo)
People â this is going to be the new economic challenge for America. People…I did my part, (Ryan has three kids) but we need to have higher birth rates in this country. Meaning, baby boomers are retiring, and we have fewer people following them in the work force…We have something like a 90% increase in the retirement population in America, but only a 19% increase in the working population in America…
It is true that birth rates in the US have declined, but thatâs not necessarily bad news. For example, birth rates for teenagers hit a record low last year. Also, Wrongo recently described McKinseyâs report on jobs lost to automation that showed 75 million jobs are at risk in the US by 2030.
Perhaps we already have too many workers for the jobs revolution that is occurring all around us.
And thereâs an obvious solution to the problem that Ryan ignores: Allowing more immigrants into the country, either to fill the jobs being vacated by retiring baby boomers, or as necessary to meet tomorrowâs job requirements. But Ryan shows that heâs all in with Trumpâs hard line anti-immigration positions.
Should American women become brood mares? This isnât a new concept. The fear of being outnumbered by racial and ethnic minorities is the driving force behind todayâs alt-right, and the view was around in earlier white nationalist movements. HuffPo interviewed Kelly J. Baker, author of âGospel According to the Klanâ. Baker says that the need to ensure that white women were having more white babies was a key part of the Ku Klux Klanâs platform during its resurgence in the 1920s: (emphasis by Wrongo)
Baker said that the 1920s Klan was ânervousâ about the possibility of widespread birth control for white women…To push back against the rising availability of effective birth control, the Klan told white women that having as many white children as possible is your job and it matters for your family and your race and for America.
And now, Ryan makes this a mainstream GOP idea. For all of the political empowerment of women in todayâs headlines, the Ryan argument lands in the same place as todayâs alt-right, and yesterdayâs KKK.
Ryan and the GOP want to see more babies, but they wonât support young kids with health insurance through the Childrenâs Health Insurance Program (CHIP). Quartz reports that next month, 600,000 American children will lose their CHIP coverage. CHIP has been instrumental in ensuring health care coverage of children in US families that arenât poor enough to qualify for Medicaid, but cannot afford any other form of insurance.
Republicans talk a lot about the cost of healthcare. The cost of not providing healthcare to children in an America with failing schools is impossible to calculate. It is very high, it lasts lifetimes and possibly, generations.
Yet, Ryan is saying that American women need to have more babies to Make America Great Again.
And we know that heâs asking for more white babies.
OK, itâs Saturday, and we need a break from toxic politics, and maybe from obsessing about shopping for gifts. Hanukkah began this week, so Wrongo looked for a soothing piece of music that was inspired by the celebration of the Festival of Lights. Here is âHanukkah Overture for String Orchestra and Clarinetâ by Adam Shugar.
Rovinji, Croatia – photo by brotherside. Rovinji is a tourist resort and fishing port, situated on the Adriatic Sea. It is bilingual, with both Italian and Croatian spoken here.
Just over a third of Americans (37%) in 2017 say news organizations generally get the facts straight, unchanged from the last time Gallup asked this question in 2003. But…major partisan shifts in beliefs on this topic have emerged over the past 14 years. Republicans’ trust in the media’s accuracy has fallen considerably, while Democrats’ opinions on the matter have swung in the opposite direction.
49% of college graduates say the news media generally get the facts right, compared with 36% of Americans who attended college, but didnât graduate. 28% of those with no more than a high school education agree that the media get it right.
But education makes little difference in Republicans’ beliefs about the news mediaâs credibility. Among Republicans with at least a college degree, only 18% say the media gets the facts straight, similar to the 12% of Republicans without a college degree who say the same.
Republicanâs trust in the American news media has fallen steadily from 2003 to today. The numbers are striking: Republicansâ trust plunged from 35% in 2003 to 14%, while Democratsâ trust in Americaâs news media increased from 42% in 2003, to 62% today.
Gallup first polled on media trust in 1998. Back then, more than half of both Republicans (52%) and Democrats (53%) believed news organizations generally got the facts straight. Here is a Gallup graph:
Both groups’ belief in the accuracy of the media fell dramatically in 2000, possibly due to bad election-night projections of the 2000 presidential election. Some networks first declared Al Gore, and later, George W. Bush the winner, before ending the night with no official winner. When surveyed a month later In December 2000, just 23% of Republicans said news organizations generally get the facts straight, a 29-percentage-point decline in the two years after the 1998 survey.
The next big Republican shift downward began in 2003. What happened in 2003? The reporting about WMD (weapons of mass destruction) in Iraq on GW Bushâs watch. The media either lied, or suppressed the findings by IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) that there were no WMD in Iraq. That lie helped move us into an unjustified war that had catastrophic results for both the Middle East and for America.
The paradox is that the Republicansâ distrust grew after that, while Democratsâ views improved. Perhaps the Republicans were angry that the press eventually reported the truth. Perhaps Democrats forgave the press after they finally reported the truth, turning their anger to George W. Bush for lying us into war.
And our Monday discussion of Sen. Lindsay Grahamâs false meme that âObama failed to unite usâ can be linked to this as well. The Republicans lack of trust in the news media has led to their willingness to dismiss facts as âfake newsâ, enabling things like Grahamâs lie.
That willingness empowers distortion of the truth as a âgo-toâ strategy in the GOPâs politics of persuasion.
Given the Gallup findings, Trumpâs frequent attacks on the media may have been as much his taking advantage of GOP attitudes, as his creating a poor Republican view of the press by his use of the “fake news” meme.
On the Democratic side, their increased confidence in newspapers may be a counter-reaction to Trump’s criticisms. Gallup found in June that the percentage of Democrats who have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in newspapers nearly doubled from 2016, rising from 28% to 46%.
The overall finding that a solid majority of the country believes major news organizations routinely produce false information may have disastrous consequences for our democracy. It is at least related to Americans’ diminished trust in US institutions, and our rising cynicism about the American political system, and our elected officials.
Democracy is impossible unless both our politicians and the press are honest.
Here is âImmigrants (We Get the Job Done)â originally from the musical, âHamiltonâ. This isnât the version you hear in the musical. This version is from the âHamilton Mixtecâ, performed by K’naan, featuring Residente, Riz MC & Snow Tha Product:
Takeaway Lyric:
Itâs really astonishing that in a country founded by immigrants,
“Immigrant” has somehow become a bad word.
Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.
US Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke announced that there would be no change for the Missouri Breaks National Monument. Zinke is from Montana, so saving one for his peeps isnât a big surprise.
Missouri Breaks is one of 27 monuments established during the previous 20 years by presidents using the Antiquities Act. The Antiquities Act allows presidents to set aside objects of historic or scientific interest to prevent their destruction. The law was created in 1906 to guard against looting of sacred American Indian sites.
In April, Trump ordered the Department of the Interior to review the status of every national monument designated since 1996. As a result of the review, these cultural and/or natural treasures could be significantly reduced in size or even eliminated, and the Antiquities Act itself could be severely limited. The land would remain owned by the federal government, but might lose its protected status, and be contracted to private enterprises. When you allow corporations to ‘lease’ land for oil, fracking, mining, ranching, etc. fences go up, private police forces are hired to keep people out for their ‘safety’.
Not everyone agrees that Trump has the authority to do what he wants. From the Washington Times:
If President Donald Trump or any successor desires the authority to revoke national monument designations, they should urge Congress to amend the Antiquities Act accordingly. They should not torture the plain language of the Act to advance a political agenda at the expense of regular constitutional order.
Indeed, those who claim that the Antiquities Act does not grant a reversal power cannot find a single case in another area of federal law that supports that contention. To override the norm, legislators have to clearly limit reversal powers in the original law; the plain text of the Antiquities Act includes no such limits.
Who knows? Next, Der Donald will lease the Grand Canyon to China for use as a landfill.
But the bigger picture is that behind the smoke and mirrors of Trumpâs pathological lying and the mediaâs obsession with Russia, his cabinet appointees are working like industrious termites, eating away much of the support beams of our nationâs rules-based edifice.
Consider Attorney General Jeff Sessions. From the New Yorker: (brackets and editing by the Wrongologist)
He [Sessions] has reversed the Obama Administrationâs commitment to voting rights…He has changed an Obama-era directive to federal prosecutors to seek reasonable, as opposed to maximum, prison sentences for nonviolent drug offenders…he has revived a discredited approach to civil forfeiture, which subjects innocent people to the loss of their property. He has also backed away from the effort…to rein in and reform police departments, like the one in Ferguson, Missouri, that have discriminated against African-Americans.
Although candidate Trump promised to protect LGBT rights, President Trump last week vowed to remove transgender service members from the armed forces, and Sessions…took the position in court that Title VII, the nationâs premier anti-discrimination law, does not protect gay people from bias. Most of all, Sessions has embraced the issue that first brought him and Trump together: the crackdown on immigration…
All across the government, Trump appointees are busy chewing through the existing regulatory edifice, ending not just Obama-era rules, but others that have been in place for decades.
Another truly damning thing is Trumpâs surrogatesâ efforts to undermine foreign policy. The WaPo reports:
Trump signed off on Iran’s compliance with profound reluctance, and he has since signaled that when Iran’s certification comes up again â as it will every 90 days, per a mandate from Congress â he intends to declare Iran not in compliance, possibly even if there is evidence to the contrary.
American officials have already told allies they should be prepared to join in reopening negotiations with Iran or expect that the US may [unilaterally] abandon the agreement, as it did the Paris climate accord.
It is difficult to see how this ends well for the US. Imagine, Iran and North Korea both pursuing nuclear weapons to deploy against the US. Why would we want to engage on two fronts, when one (North Korea) is already so problematic?
What is the Trump agenda? Are there any articulated goals? What are the strategies to achieve them?
Have we heard a concrete proposal for any of his big ideas (health care, tax reform, or infrastructure)?
We have not, but his termites keep chewing, and soon, our whole building will be compromised.
âGovernments last only as long as the undertaxed can defend themselves against the overtaxed.â â Bernard Berenson
(There is an extra ration of cartoons today. Wrongo is taking a few days to celebrate the hot dogs and potato salad he found in the fridge. Posts will resume on July 5th.)
If this week shows how well we are playing defense, we are all screwed. The party of personal responsibility always blames their opponents when things go wrong. The party of fiscal responsibility will blow up the budget whenever they get in power.
And the party of family values is merrily slashing away at programs that support families:
When it comes to health insurance, the GOP has all the right viewpoints:
Trump revealed his true self with the âMorning Joeâ tweets:
The Court-tested, Judges approved Muslim ban is now in effect:
Trump (or his lackeys) made fake Time Magazine covers featuring the Donald:
Trumpâs Press Team orders no cameras at most press conferences. So on to Virtual News:
Trump Election Commission asks states for each voterâs personal data, like party affiliation and social security number. What could go wrong?
When it comes to health insurance, the GOP has all the right viewpoints:
