These headlines could say: “Biden Fails to Fix All of the Worldâs Problems in a year.”
Whatâs driving much of this “presidency in peril” coverage is Biden’s approval ratings. Some results are truly discouraging, while CNN’s poll of polls, released Thursday, found that 41% of Americans approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job while 54% disapprove.
Still, Biden and the Dems need a mid-course correction. On to cartoons.
Can diplomacy solve the crisis in Ukraine?
The Senate failed to pass voting rights. Republicans wouldnât help:
Republicans donât want to look back one year, but they certainly don’t mind looking back at the 1950s:
The administration is sending rapid tests via the post office. Have they heard about Amazon?
Plenty of news this week about Trump and January 6. The dogs are gathering:
Oregon City Bridge, OR with Willamette Falls in background – January 2022 photo by Sanman Photography
Gallup says that the Dems are losing the battle for hearts and minds. Their most recent poll shows a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter. Hereâs a chart showing the bad news:
More from Gallup:
âBoth the nine-point Democratic advantage in the [2021] first quarter and the five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter are among the largest Gallup has measured for each party in any quarter since it began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991.â
Gallup points out that the GOP has held a five-point advantage in a total of only four quarters since 1991. The fourth quarter of 2021 was the first time Republicans held a five-point advantage since 1995, when they took control of the House of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s.
Republicans have only held a larger advantage one time, in the first quarter of 1991, after the U.S. victory in the Persian Gulf War led by then President George H.W. Bush.
Weâve known that the Democrats arenât at the top of their political game for months. The current issue of The Economist reports that while Biden looked great in 2020 as an alternative to Trump, in 2021, with Trump virtually invisible, Biden managed to look less compelling:
âAmericans find themselves being led through tumultuous times by their least charismatic and politically able president since George H.W. Bush.â
The Economist listened in on a focus group of 2020 Biden voters conducted by Conservative pollster, Sarah Longwell. There were eight panelists, all under 30, from Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:
âAsked to grade the president, the group…gave him four Cs, three D’s and an F. And it was not a hostile crowd. All the groupâs members were Biden voters, and none regretted their vote. Indeed, if asked to support the president again in 2024, all said…they probably would…â
While a few things have been accomplished, much of the progressive agenda hasn’t. So half of the Democrats are mad at Biden for not accomplishing more. The focus group was young, and just one of them watched cable news; the rest got their facts from social media, where the presidentâs two recent good speeches barely register.
Ezra Klein points out that Biden learned from the weak Obama effort at stimulus after the Great Recession. He met the pandemic crisis with an overwhelming fiscal stimulus, supporting the passing of the $2.2 trillion CARES Act (passed during the Trump administration) and then adding the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. Biden made it clear that he preferred the risks of a hot economy to mass joblessness.
From Klein: (emphasis by Wrongo)
âThat they have largely succeeded feels like the best-kept secret in Washington. A year ago, forecasters expected unemployment to be nearly 6% in the fourth quarter of 2020. Instead, it fell to 3.9% in December….Wages are high, new businesses are forming at record rates, and poverty has fallen below its prepandemic levels.â
Since March 2020, Americans have saved at least $2 trillion more than expected. A JPMorgan Chase analysis found the median householdâs checking account balance was 50% higher in July 2021 than before the pandemic.
But we now have inflation, supply chain issues and most importantly, we still have Covid. This may not be the presidency Biden wanted, but itâs the one heâs got. Biden has problems with the media. Crises sell, after all. But the reason Bidenâs approval numbers are so underwater is that neither side thinks he is fighting for them.
Bidenâs a career politician who survived by steering toward the middle of his own Party. Thatâs fine when youâre an incumbent Senator in the liberal Northeast, but not when youâre fighting a war of attrition against a Republican opposition that wants to destroy you and your Party.
Remember Bidenâs talking point in his 2020 campaign was that this was a fight for the soul of America. He was right, but both Biden and the Party have drifted away from that and from designing programs that would rescue Americaâs soul.
If the Dems are to win in the 2022 mid-terms and the 2024 presidential election, they must start acting like theyâre fighting for us. Thereâs no grey area in American politics. The entire Party must unite behind fighting the Republicans and Trump.
Democrats need to be on the offense â all day, every day.
How about taking a few minutes for a musical palate cleanser? Since we need Biden to find his way home to the Democratic Party, Letâs watch Rachael Price, lately of Lake Street Dive, along with the Live from Here Band with Chris Thile, performing in 2018 a cover of Blind Faith’s 1969 “Can’t Find My Way Home“:
Blind Faith was a Supergroup comprised of Eric Clapton, Steve Winwood, Ginger Baker, and Ric Grech. They released just one album. Winwood wrote this and sang lead, despite Claptonâs reputation.
After an ice storm, Taos NM – January 2022 photo by Bob Benson
âFreedom without consequences is a myth. Our actions always have consequences. The question is: who will bear them?â – Seth Godin
The year 1968 was pivotal. In addition to the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr., it brought the Tet Offensive, student protests across the country, the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy, the student and police riots at the Chicago Democratic Convention, Black Power salutes at the Olympics, and the triumph of Richard Nixonâs Southern strategy.
MLK, along with others in our churches and a few courageous politicians, came together to support the Big Idea that Separate was not Equal. MLK gave a voice to that Big Idea. His presence, power and persuasiveness drove our political process to an outcome in the Civil Rights Act of 1964 that was completely unthinkable in 1954 when Brown vs. Board of Education was decided by the Supreme Court.
Wrongo participated in the Civil Rights movement from 1958 to 1962. He left active participation in the movement believing good ideas and a morally sound position would change our politics. He was wrong.
Legislation has recently passed in eight states that will restrict what students can be taught about our past. This is an effort to segregate certain subjects from our common history. These Republican states want to diminish or exclude the stories that speak to slavery, to Jim Crow, and to other moments in which Americaâs deepest shortcomings around the subject of race in America are told.
Wrongo wishes that this represented a minority of the Republican Party. But when Biden spoke in Atlanta, he said:
âI ask every elected official in America: How do you want to be remembered? Do you want to be on the side of Dr. King or George Wallace? Do you want to be on the side of John Lewis or Bull Connor? Do you want to be on the side of Abraham Lincoln or Jefferson Davis?â
Dr. King had said that stripping the right to vote from Black southerners laid the groundwork for laws that further disadvantaged poor people, even across racial lines. Then as now, Southern legislatures justified limiting the franchise to vote with specious claims about electoral shenanigans.
Bidenâs words set Republican teeth on edge. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said that Biden:
“…called millions of Americans his domestic enemies…and that if you disagree with him, youâre George Wallace….If you donât pass the laws he wants, youâre Bull Connor, and if you oppose giving Democrats untrammeled, one-party control of the country, well youâre Jefferson Davis.”
“Now he says disagreeing w/him on voting laws means youâre a segregationist, like George Wallace or Bull Connor. How low can he go?”
The linkage between trying not to teach Americaâs true history with the censorious outrage shown by Republicans over Bidenâs comments is clear. Biden said America needed to be on the side of voting rights.
That was Dr. Kingâs great struggle, and his great success.
But Republicans want to whitewash that history. They also condemn Bidenâs efforts to tie today back to our undemocratic past. As Jelani Cobb says this week in the New Yorker:
âThis holiday honoring Martin Luther King, Jr., sees a nation embroiled in conflicts that would have looked numbingly familiar to him. As school curricula and online discourse threaten to narrow our understanding of both past and future, itâs more important than ever to take stock of our history and its consequences….
Time to wake up America! We are docile sheep heading back to the barn, the place where we will be shorn of our democracy, just as surely as wool is shorn from the sheep. The smoking guns are all around us, and yet, we seem hopelessly divided about what we should do to change course.
To help you wake up, letâs listen to Wrongoâs favorite MLK song, âSouthernâ by OMD from their 1986 album âThe Pacific Ageâ. On April 3, 1968, in Memphis, King delivered his last speech, which we remember as his âIâve been to the mountaintopâ speech. He was assassinated the next day. OMD samples some of the content of that speech in âSouthernâ:
Although everyone knows the âIâve been to the mountaintopâ part of the speech, Wrongo thinks our focus should be on the following:
I want young men and young women, who are not alive today But who will come into this world, with new privileges And new opportunities I want them to know and see that these new privileges and opportunities Did not come without somebody suffering and sacrificing For freedom is never given to anybody
Why focus on that part of the speech? One day down the road, and it will not be long, young people will have forgotten what MLK meant to America, or how whatever remains of their civil rights, came to be.
Or, how the 13th Amendment ending slavery came about, and why, 100 years later in 1965, the Voting Rights Act was passed, or how 48 years later, in June, 2013, the Roberts Court eviscerated it.
So, take the time to teach a child about why MLK is so important.
New Yearâs Day, Pike National Forest, near Colorado Springs, CO – January 2022 photo by Daniel Forster
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âIt’s not the voting that’s democracy; it’s the counting.â â Tom Stoppard
Tomorrow we will observe the anniversary of the attempted coup at the US Capitol. For the most part, in response, America will do nothing. The Atlanticâs Barton Gellman wrote last month,
âTrump and his party have convinced a dauntingly large number of Americans that the essential workings of democracy are corrupt, that made-up claims of fraud are true, that only cheating can thwart their victory at the polls, that tyranny has usurped their government, and that violence is a legitimate response.â
There are tens of millions of Americans who believe that the 2020 election was magically stolen from Trump, and tens of millions who believe violence is the answer to resolving that problem. A new NPR/Ipsos poll finds that 64% of Americans believe US democracy is “in crisis and at risk of failing.”
The poll found one-third of Trump voters say the attack on the Capitol was actually carried out by opponents of Donald Trump, including Antifa and government agents, a baseless conspiracy theory that has been promoted by conservative media ever since the attack, even though it has been debunked.
Is the US careening toward a second civil war? Republicans seem to be willing to destroy the Republic to save it.
Stephen Marche published an excerpt from his new book in the Guardian. He points out that the Right has recognized that the American political system is in collapse, and it has a plan: violence and solidarity with far-right factions that want to subvert the vote-counting process.
Marche says that two things are happening at the same time. The American Right has abandoned its faith in government. The American Left has been slower on the uptake, but they are starting to figure out that the American political system which we call a democracy is less deserving of the name as each year passes.
So, the Right is already preparing for a breakdown of law and order. Theyâre preparing because theyâre the ones fomenting the breakdown.
A University of Virginia analysis of census projections shows that by 2040, 30% of the population will control 68% of the Senate, and eight states will contain half of the US population.
The conservative project to achieve permanent minority rule long precedes Trumpâs efforts to nullify the election in 2020. Itâs being further codified into law in states across the country. The Senateâs built-in malapportionment gives advantages overwhelmingly to white, non-college educated voters. The federal system as constituted no longer represents the will of the majority of the American people.
This shouldnât surprise you, since we continually elect people uncommitted to making government work. And surprise, it doesnât. VOXâs Zach Beauchamp observes:
âAmericaâs dysfunction stems, in large part, from an outdated political system that creates incentives for intense partisan conflict and legislative gridlock. That system may well be near the point of collapse. Reform is certainly a possibility. But the most meaningful changes to our system have been won only after bloodshed and struggle, on the fields of Gettysburg and in the streets of Birmingham. It is possible, maybe even likely, that America will not be able to veer from its dangerous path absent more eruptions and upheavals â that things will get worse before they get better.â
Can this be avoided? Unclear. The Democrats have done an excellent job in ensuring they have little bench strength. Who do they have who is capable of succeeding Biden?
The Republicans have lobotomized their talent base. Trump created an environment where any number of lunatics can claim followers that vaguely fit under the Republican banner, while the mainstream Right fails to control either the Party or its narrative.
Itâs still possible for America to implement a modern electoral system, restore the legitimacy of the courts, reform its police forces, and alter its tax code to address inequality. All of these changes are possible.
However, we canât simply hope that everything will work out; it wonât. If democracy is to survive, the US must start over. It must rediscover its revolutionary spirit. But whoâs willing to do that? We seem to feel that itâs futile to expect that we can change anything.
The upshot is that people are angry. Many are checking out, no longer caring about what happens. How will we save the American project if we arenât willing to fight for it?
What happens if it no longer matters who is running for president next time around?
The political class in DC is very concerned about inflation, including many Democrats. So much so that they are unwilling to pass Bidenâs âBuild Back Betterâ social infrastructure bill because it will add to our current inflation. Specifically, Sen. Manchin objects to the extension of the child tax credit that is expiring this month.
Itâs time to remind these people of what real inflation looks like. Back in 1980, when then-Chair of the Federal Reserve Paul Volcker raised interest rates high enough to throw the US into a recession and end inflation, inflation had averaged 6.9% for the previous 11 years. Letâs also remind Sen. Manchin that this yearâs annualized rate of inflation went above the long-term average of around 3% in April. Weâve averaged 6.81% for the year, not for 11 years.
The Senate wrapped up its work for the year, with Democrats punting the Build Back Better and the voting rights bills into 2022. The Senate adjourned early Saturday morning after a voting marathon including confirming 50 of Bidenâs nominees. On to cartoons.
The answer is to elect more Democratic Senators:
Letâs see the Senate break at least one tooth on voting rights:
Only the social programs have to pay for themselves:
San Miguel Peaks, Uncompahgre National Forest, CO – November 2021 photo by Tad Bowman
Wrongoâs column on how we need to rehabilitate our Constitution drew several comments saying that it was a foolâs game to even try to change it, given our political dysfunction.
One reader, David P. asked how we might accomplish such a heavy lift. It is only possible if people get more involved in the political process. That got Wrongo thinking about why so few individuals really actively participate in the political process today. From Ezra Klein:
âObsessively following the daily political news feels like an act of politics, or at least an act of civics. But what if, for many of us, itâs a replacement for politics â and one thatâs actually hurting the country?â
Klein interviewed Eitan Hersh of Tufts University on his podcast. Hersh talked about âpolitical hobbyismâ, by which he means following politics as a form of entertainment and/or an expression of self-identity. He differentiates it from the actual work of politics.
Hershâs research shows that a lot of people who believe they are politically engaged are really only passively following it. He also thinks that their following it passively has played a key role in making our politics worse.
For Hersh, the real work in our politics involves some sort of local engagement and/or organizing. His point is that voting and contributing money have their place, but these are fundamentally low engagement activities, especially if youâre not wealthy enough to impact policy.
According to Hersh, if you contribute money to a candidate because that candidate said something that made you feel good, thatâs less real political engagement than it is a kind of consumerism: (emphasis by Wrongo)
âA lot of whatâs happening in small-dollar donations….youâre watching a…politician grandstand and make some speech. And because they grandstand in a way that you liked, you react by giving a $5 donation….So, whatâs really going on is you have no goals except to reward a politician for saying something that feels great in the moment. I think that makes politics worse rather than better. And you are doing it more for yourself â for your own kind of emotional…ends â rather than to move politics in a direction….â
More from Hersh: (brackets by Wrongo)
âIf you look at the number of people who are spending time on politics, thereâs about a third of the country that says theyâre spending about two hours a day in news consumption….Almost none of [this time]…letâs say 2%, is real community or volunteer engagement. The rest is mostly news consumption and sharing, talking, and debating online.â
Hersh makes the point that the people who spend the most time on any political engagement are White men, particularly college-educated White men. They know more facts, but they are not the group thatâs working with their Parties on organized politics. That would be women. Racial minorities, particularly Blacks, but also to some extent Latinos, spend less overall time on following the news, but more of their time is spent in actual political activities.
Wrongo does precisely what Hersh says is indulgent consumerist behavior. He reads about politics and writes this silly blog. He contributes to candidates he likes/admires. Wrongo also volunteers on a couple of committees in his town, but heâs invisible in local politics.
Reader David P. does much more. Once a week he goes to an office of his local Democratic Party and makes canvass calls. His is a life-long arc of true political engagement. Working on campaigns, attending rallies, and yes, donating money, and commenting on blogs.
It shouldnât surprise anyone that Wrongo thinks that offering opinions and informing the public via blogs is important. Blogs that are done well inform people, and they spread information. Thatâs the mission, because god knows, people are totally misinformed by both politicians, and the mainstream media.
In âThe Cause, The American Revolution and its Discontents, 1773-1783â by Joseph Ellis, he says that before the revolution, colonists didnât think of themselves as Americans. They described their fight for independence as âThe Causeâ. An ambiguous term that covered diverse ideas and multiple viewpoints. Unlike in England at the time, even working class colonists were literate. And they were fully engaged in the process through word and deed.
Most Americans today are literate, but what will it take to get them off the couch? What will it take to get Democrats to put themselves on the line for an idea, or for a candidate?
We say, âhow can we lose to these guys?â When we see that Republicans have left our Americaâs democratic values behind, when we know that they actively intend to undermine the integrity of our elections.
How dangerous does the threat to our democracy have to be for people to get involved?
Or have we so totally surrendered to reading social media on our phones that weâre no longer capable of putting ourselves on the line for what we say we believe in?
Dawn sky, North Shore of Lake Superior – November 2021 photo by Ken Harmon
Biden and Putin had their heads-of-state version of a Zoom call yesterday. It lasted more than two hours. From the WaPo:
âIn an email readout of the call, the White House said that…Biden voiced the deep concerns of the United States and our European Allies about Russiaâs escalation of forces surrounding Ukraine and made clear that the US and our Allies would respond with strong economic and other measures in the event of military escalation.â
It seems that the two leaders simply assigned their respective teams to follow up. The White House said Biden and Putin also discussed ransomware attacks and the Iran nuclear negotiations.
Wrongo doubts that Russia intends to invade Ukraine. There are too many downsides to a full-scale invasion for both sides. It would be costly militarily. Ukraineâs military would not be a match for Russia. But itâs in much better shape than it was in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, and entered Ukraineâs Donbas region. With help from the West over the past seven years, Ukraineâs regular units and reserves have come a long way.
Itâs difficult to imagine why NATO would respond militarily to support Ukraine. Germany certainly doesnât want a war with Russia. Rather, they want Russiaâs Nordstream 2 gas pipeline to begin supplying energy to them. Itâs even unclear whether a war in Ukraine would be supported strongly by the Russian people.
Understandably, Putin doesnât want Ukraine to join NATO. And so far, it doesnât look like NATO wants Ukraine in NATO, either. Itâs doubtful that Biden would insist that NATO ask Ukraine to join it. OTOH, Ukraine has leaned toward the EU and NATO since its independence in 1991.
Putin has observed that if Ukraine joined NATO, then NATO would be closer to Moscow than the USSR was to the US when they placed missiles in Cuba. Putinâs thinking that a nuclear warhead launched from Ukraine would have about a 5 minute flight time to Moscow.
That should be a threat Americans understand. If NATO had cruise or ballistic missiles in Ukraine or the Balkans it would be a reverse Cuban Missile Crisis. And we should understand that Putin would react as JFK did in 1962.
Itâs ancient history, but when Wrongo ran a nuclear missile unit in Germany, our role was a total defense strategy against a potential invasion from the Soviet Union. It seems logical to Wrongo that national defense in Ukraine and the Balkans is similar, a poison pill to deter Russian aggression.
A way out for Biden is to promise Putin that he wonât supply Ukraine with offensive weapons. The definition of what constitutes an offensive weapon has been clear for some time. Itâs unlikely that Putin would be happy if Ukraine received state-of-the-art air defense weapons from NATO, but that crumb from Biden may have to be sufficient.
We in America should understand that NATO Chief Stoltenberg has been pushing to admit Ukraine into NATO. Heâs also parroted what Biden has said about Russia paying a high price if it made a move against Ukraine. What about the US strategy for Ukraine? Reuters reported last week that Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried said that:
âAs you can appreciate, all options are on the table and there’s a toolkit that includes a whole range of options…”
Donfried knows that thereâs no “all options on the table” plan for the US. If Russia decided to invade, the US has neither forces nor resources in Europe to do much to stop it, unless NATO was to unleash a European-wide war.
Neither side wants that, because it wouldnât necessarily be limited to Europe. There is something in the military called âEscalation Dominanceâ. That implies that when escalation begins, it can remain limited only if your side has a dominant nuclear capability. No one who looks at the US and Russia believes thereâs any way to guarantee that an escalation will remain limited between these two powers.
There are no easy answers on how to avoid that. As long as we view this as primarily a military problem, we will see only military solutions. But if Ukraine falls to Russia, it would be a catastrophic reputational loss for the US, one that demonstrates our weakness in power and influence across our post-WWII empire.
Nobody knows what will happen, but we should expect Biden will do whatever he can to prevent direct confrontation. Russia has been deploying troops along its border with Ukraine, particularly around the Donbas region, where they have been carrying on a small war with Ukraine since late 2014.
In the middle of a pandemic in which millions have died, with no end in sight, Â it would be a hell of a time to start a war.
The weekend got off to a good start with Bannon indicted and Britany freed. But the final outcome at COP26 is the big news. The final agreement was announced on Saturday. It calls for reductions in coal and fossil fuel use and a transition to renewables. Those are all firsts in the more than 25-year history of UN climate talks.
Still, countries like Saudi Arabia or China were resistant; so the wording had to be significantly watered down. Wednesdayâs draft mentioned phasing out coal, but Saturdayâs speaks only of accelerating âefforts towards the phase-out of unabated coal powerâ.
What seems to have happened is a lot of speechifying, including Boris Johnson sounding a lot like Greta Thunberg. But not much happened in terms of concrete political action.
There is some good news: a net-zero pledge from India, a commitment from the US and China to work together, and a toothless but significant global agreement to reduce methane emissions.
One thing that is easy to overlook is that there were no climate deniers among the countries represented at COP26, a first. But a preliminary analysis of the agreement published by Carbon Brief suggests that, all told, the agreements coming out of COP26 may shave only 0.1 degree Celsius off of future warming.
The disconnect between rhetoric and reality has several possible explanations, but Occamâs Razor suggests it can be explained best in three words: Talk is cheap.
As Wrongo has said, not all the climate change news is bad: the probabilities of the worst-case scenarios seem to be falling a bit. The flip side of this is that, at present, the probability of the best-case scenario (holding global warming to 1.5 degrees C. above the pre-industrial baseline) also seems to be fading, and all of the medium-range outcomes look pretty terrible. On to cartoons.
Climate warriors wonât fight:
Infrastructure Week finally arrives:
Not everyone is enthusiastic about Infrastructure week:
GOP is unfriending the infrastructure-positive Republicans:
Ted Cruz is one of the smarmiest politicians ever, so it isnât a surprise that he tried to score political points by going after Sesame Streetâs Big Bird, who tweeted that he had gotten his COVID-19 vaccine. âMy wing is feeling a little sore,â he said, âbut itâll give my body an extra protective boost that keeps me and others healthy.â It was a nice thing to tell children now that they can get the vaccine. Cruz didnât see it as nice, nor did the Right-wing blowhards on Fox News and Newsmax. They were livid about Big Birdâs message:
Coral Pink Sand Dunes State Park, UT – November 2021 photo by Byron Jones
This weekâs Veteranâs Day apparently isnât finished with Wrongo just yet. Itâs important to remember that when the US war in Afghanistan ended in August after nearly 20 years, there were both hard and soft costs that had been paid, and much that remains to be paid.
The Pentagon reports the hard costs of our Afghanistan adventure to be $825 billion. However, the âCosts of Warâ project at Brown University estimates those costs at $2.313 trillion. But it gets worse: They estimate the costs of all US post-9/11 war spending at $8 trillion, including future obligations for veteransâ care and the cost of borrowing on the associated federal debt for roughly 30 years. They also estimate the human costs of the âglobal war on terrorâ at 900,000 deaths.
Those are all truly staggering numbers.
And Congress is now considering next fiscal yearâs military budget. Defense One is covering this so you donât have to. Theyâre saying that the proposed 2022 defense budget will be another bipartisan effort by the old-timers in the House and Senate to add more money than was asked for into the pot. And itâs part of a long history of hiding flimsy arguments behind dramatic rhetoric: (parenthesis by Wrongo)
âThis year, both the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) and House Armed Services Committee (HASC) have displayed a similar unwillingness to distinguish between needs and wants in their versions of the National Defense Authorization Act, which recommend adding $25 billion and $24 billion, respectively, to President Bidenâs recommended $715 billion Pentagon budget.â
More:
âIt is difficult to imagine how either the SASC or HASC could convincingly demonstrate the necessity of such military spending increases when none of the most urgent crises facing the United States today have military solutions. Furthermore, the credibility of both the Pentagon and Congress on this subject is, to put it mildly, underwhelming: one has an extensivehistoryofbudgetaryboondoggles, and the other is openly cozy with the U.S. arms industry.â
Defense One says that the most frustrating aspect isnât the exorbitant amounts, but the lack of any substantive strategic justification for the increased spending by either Chamber. In specific, Defense One argues that  thereâs been no effort to demonstrate that the Senateâs billions are funding needs instead of simply political wants.
Remember this is from Defense One, a stalwart defender of Americaâs military.
We shouldnât assume legislators think carefully about the publicâs interest when crafting the defense budget. Over the years, the defense budget process is driven partly by what the administration and the Pentagon ask for, and by what the defense industry wants for its bottom line. (Full disclosure, Wrongo holds a significant number of shares in a large defense contracting firm.)
US military spending in 2020 was $778 billion. The next closest nation was China, at $252 billion. In third place was India at $72.9 billion. Another perspective is to compare what we spent to fight in Vietnam to the costs of our Apollo moon landing. Apollo 11 got to the moon in July of 1969. That feat cost the US about $25.8 billion.
During the same era, itâs estimated that the Vietnam War cost the US $141 billion over 14 years. That means that we spent about as much in two years in Vietnam as we spent on the entire space race!
When we think about accountability for the costs of the Pentagon, we should remember that the Pentagon has never passed an outside expense audit. Waste is endemic; and the Pentagon simply fabricates numbers, but receives nearly zero pushback from Congress.
Thereâs so much corruption in the halls of Congress that we will never know how little we could spend on defense. Maybe we should just make some deep cuts to the defense budget and force real strategic decision-making down their throats.
Enough! Itâs Saturday, and we need to take a break from trying to figure out whether Steve Bannon or Kyle Rittenhouse will ever go to jail. Itâs time for our Saturday Soother.
With a soaking rain in Connecticut today, weâre limited to indoor sports. Most of our fall clean-up is still ahead, but today, letâs grab a seat by the window and listen to pianist Max Richterâs âMercyâ with Richter on piano and Mari Samuelsen on violin. Richter originally wrote the piece 10 years ago for violinist Hillary Hahn. For Richter, âMercyâ places the need for mercy and compassion firmly within our view:
Early fall foliage, Long Pond, Rutland, MA – September 2021 photo by Jurgen Roth Photography
Charlie Sykes, talking about what will be a jam-packed week in Washington DC:
âThis is going to be a helluva week. Democrats in Congress may not be able to save the Biden presidency, but they can destroy itâŠâ
There are clear differences among Democrats on social spending priorities and the correct size of the pending human infrastructure spending bill. Several Democratic House members have vowed not to support both of Bidenâs bills, unless they get what they want included. Along with threats by Sens. Sinema and Manchin not to stand with Democrats in the Senate, both House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Schumer canât be happy trying to lead their fractious caucuses.
And among these efforts to thread the needle, are the twin crises of a Thursday cut-off of federal spending and a subsequent (possible) default on the nationâs debt.
Funding for the federal government is set to run out on Thursday at midnight. Senate Democrats will move a stopgap spending measure forward to position for a vote on the House-passed short-term funding bill. That would keep federal agencies open until Dec. 3, while suspending the debt limit until Dec. 2022.
Suspending the debt limit for another year is a great idea, but Senate Republicans are certain to tank that proposal. The likely scenario is that Senate Dems will remove the debt-limit provision and pass the bill with bipartisan support. Then, the House passes the bill, Biden signs it, and a government shutdown is averted for another two months.
But that leaves the debt-limit problem unresolved. We will reach that in early-mid October.
Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans wonât support an increase in the debt limit. They say that Democrats should lift the cap on government borrowing on their own, as a part of their reconciliation package. But that creates a political advantage for the Republicans. And besides, it could take weeks, enough time to bring the country close to defaulting on its obligations. And it isnât certain that Schumer has the votes to pass it without Republican help.
Only one thingâs certain: No one knows whatâs really going to happen.
On infrastructure, Pelosi announced that debate on the Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure bill would start on Monday. A House vote on it is slated for Thursday. House Democrats are also trying to make progress on the big reconciliation package.
Pelosiâs challenge is to keep progressives from walking away from the big bill and tanking the infrastructure bill. Democratic leadership also must appease Senate centrists about the size of the big infrastructure bill, which they say is too large.
House Democrats will meet late on Monday, (shortly after Wrongo posts this). Pelosi wants the members whoâve drawn lines in the sand about the human infrastructure bill (and who havenât shown up for caucus meetings lately) to be there. From Politico:
âI urge the fullest participation of Members and hope that as many of us can be there in person as possible…â
These are strange days for Democrats. As a Sunday WaPo article said, âPolitical Suicide is not a Strategyâ. In addition to the obsessive focus on securing the necessary votes in the House and Senate, the focus on the human infrastructureâs price tag is the essence of bad political messaging. Few Democrats stand up to say that the $3.5 trillion will be spent over 10 years, amounting to only 1.2% of GDP over that period.
Worse, focusing on the dollar amount takes attention away from the value in the bill for children, families, education, health care, housing, and climate. From Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT):
âWhen Democrats allow a debate to be only about a number, itâs like talking about a Christmas party and only discussing the hangover.â
The WaPo quotes Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) as saying that the discussion is getting things exactly backward:
 âWe should work from what policies we want to enact, rather than an arbitrary number.â
No one can forecast how this will all work out. It would be dandy if Republicans supported the debt ceiling increase.
It would also be dandy if they accepted the results of the 2020 election, got vaccinated and stopped passing voter suppression laws. A rational and patriotic Party would do those things. But those are a bridge too far for todayâs Republican Party.
So, Democrats are on their own. Weâll soon see if they can stand together as a team to avoid disaster and deliver on Bidenâs promises.
Oregon City Bridge, OR with Willamette Falls in background – January 2022 photo by 
